洪金灌区管理决策支持系统应用研究

洪金灌区管理决策支持系统（IMDSS）主要包括信息系统、模拟系统、决策分析系统等。整个系统分为软件与硬件控制两大部分,软件部分包括灌区信息管理、地理信息查询、配水方案优化决策、水情查询分析和灌区设计辅助计算五个部分;硬件部分包括自动监测、视频监控和语音查询四个部分。该系统的开发与运用为灌区优化调度灌溉用水提供了科学依据。     

Evaluating the Impact of Policy-induced Land Use Management Practices on Non-point Source Pollution Using a Spatial Decision Support System

Abstract

State and federal conservation compliance policies in the United States are aimed, in part, at reducing non-point pollution and maintaining long-term agricultural productivity. These policies affect land use and management practices on the nation's farms. Farms and farmers, however, are part of a larger agri-ecological system and changes in farming practices affect linked socio-economic, biologic, and hydrologic systems. It is difficult, therefore, to foresee the wide ranging and long-term consequences that are set into motion by changes in agricultural policy. Yet, these consequences must be understood if we are to avoid the deleterious side effects or capture the collateral benefits associated with specific policies. A Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) has been developed here to help understand some of these consequences within the context of watershed management and the control of non-point source pollution. This SDSS consists of a Geographic Information System (GIS), two spatial models (GEOLP and AGNPS), and a graphical user interface. The purpose of this SDSS is to assist decision-makers as they investigate the impact of agricultural policy on non-point source pollution and the local economy. The SDSS is used to simulate the potential impacts of alternative policy scenarios in the Big Creek watershed. The models and methodologies described here, however, are general and can provide benefits to a variety of decision-makers engaged in watershed management and the reduction of non-point pollution.     

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Management of Floods

Integrating human knowledge with modeling tools, an intelligent decision support system (DSS) is developed to assist decision makers during different phases of flood management. The DSS is developed as a virtual planning tool and can address both engineering and non-engineering issues related to flood management. Different models (hydrodynamic, forecasting, and economic) that are part of the DSS share data and communicate with each other by providing feedback. The DSS is able to assist in: selecting suitable flood damage reduction options (using an expert system approach); forecasting floods (using artificial neural networks approach); modeling the operation of flood control structures; and describing the impacts (area flooded and damage) of floods in time and space. The proposed DSS is implemented for the Red River Basin in Manitoba, Canada. The results from the test application of DSS for 1997 flood in the Red River Basin are very promising. The DSS is able to predict the peak flows with 2% error and reveals that with revised operating rules the contribution of Assiniboine River to the flooding of Winnipeg city can be significantly reduced. The decision support environment allows a number of “what-if” type questions to be asked and answered, thus, multiple decisions can be tried without having to deal with the real life consequences.     

灌区灌溉用水管理决策支持系统总体设计

在分析灌溉用水管理主要内容和决策流程以及确定的系统开发原则基础上,提出了具有系统结构合理、软件设计先进、实用性强、扩充性能好、适应实时决策要求的灌溉用水管理决策支持系统总体设计方案以数据库和知识库作为信息基础,以模型库作为管理决策的重要支撑手段,针对以上三库相互之间在概念和结构上存在交叉,在运行中存在数据流交换的特点,建立总控系统。通过多组件之间的接口集成整个决策支持系统,实现信息查询、灌水预报、水量分配等功能。该系统界面友好、直观,操作灵活、方便。     

Watershed Management Technique to Control Sediment Yield in Agriculturally Dominated Areas

Abstract

Non-point source pollution is recognized internationally as a critical environmental problem. In Illinois, soil erosion from agricultural lands is the major source of such pollution. The erosion process, which has been accelerated by human activity, tends to reduce crop productivity and leads to subsequent problems from deposition on farmlands and in water bodies. Comprehensive watershed management, however, can be used to protect these natural resources. In this study, a discrete time optimal control methodology and computational model are developed for determining land use and management alternatives that minimize sediment yield from agriculturally-dominated watersheds. The solution methodology is based on an interface between a genetic algorithm and the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Model analyses are performed on a farm field basis to allow capture of different, local stakeholder perspectives, and crop management alternatives are based on a three-year rotation pattern. The decision support tool is applied to the Big Creek watershed located in the Cache River basin of Southern Illinois. The application demonstrates that the methodology is a valuable tool in advancing comprehensive watershed management. The study represents part of an ongoing research effort to develop an even more comprehensive decision support tool that uses multi-criteria evaluation to address social, economic, and hydrologic issues for integrative watershed management.     

柘溪水库调度决策支持系统设计与开发

在总结柘溪电站早期建设的决策支持系统经验的基础上，从分析电站特点和业务需求出发，遵循实用性、稳健性、先进性等原则进行了柘溪水库调度决策支持系统的设计和开发。现场实际运行效果表明系统具有较大的实用价值和较强的推广意义。最后总结了系统的特点并分析了综合利用水库调度决策支持系统的发展趋势。     

引水工程运行管理决策支持系统设计与实现

引水工程是我国水资源战略调配的重要举措,在我国水资源调配已经或将发挥重要作用,引水工程的信息化建设将促进和提高引水工程运行管理水平。在分析引水工程特点及其运行管理需求的基础上,应用先进的信息采集、通信网络、空间和计算机控制处理技术,对引水工程运行调度管理决策支持系统进行分析设计,以吉林省引嫩入白引水工程为例,进行应用实践。通过应用表明,该系统运行稳定,界面友好,提升了引水工程水利信息化水平,充分发挥了引水工程的效益。     

水电站防洪决策支持系统的理论与应用

从决策支持系统（DSS）的基本原理出发,结合水电站防洪问题的实际情况和具体,从水电站防洪决策支持系统（FcDSS)的功能,结构、数据库子系统、接口子系统、模型系统等方面,对水电站FcDSS的理论和应用进行了深入研究,该研究成果已在电站应用,取得满意效果。     

实时水库优化调度决策支持系统及其应用

水库是水库运行管理的中心环节，在水库调度中，将数学模型与专家系统结合使用，建立长中短期套接的实时兴利优化调度、防洪实时优化调度及其辅助模型系统；各模型通过逐时段滚动控制与反馈相结合，可以增加水库调度的效益，减少不确定性因素对调度的影响，并提出用专家系统对优化调度的各个环节进行评价，以尽可能降低优化调度方案的风险，提高优化调度方案的可接受程序，所提出的方法已编编制出使用灵活方便的软件，并经实际使用，     

用科学发展观的思路探索小流域治理

总结了广灵县牛口峪小流域水土流失的治理过程,包括规划、治理模式的选定和治理的成果和效益,介绍了所创建的小流域治理科学管理系统,它们是：计划管理系统、组织机构系统、治理施工系统、物资供应系统、资料信息系统、管理监督系统。     

Predicting Water-Surface Fluctuation of Continental Lakes: A RS and GIS Based Approach in Central Mexico

Changes in the water-surface area occupied by the Cuitzeo Lake, Mexico, during the 1974–2001 period are analysed in this study. The research is based on remote sensing and geographic information techniques, as well as statistical analysis. High-resolution satellite image data were used to analyse the 1974–2000 period, and very low-resolution satellite image data were used for the 1997–2001 period. The long-term analysis (1974–2000) indicated that there were temporal changes in the surface area of the Cuitzeo Lake and that these changes were related to precipitation and temperatures that occurred in the previous year. Short-term monitoring (1997–2001) showed that the Cuitzeo Lake surface is lowering. Field observations demonstrated also that yearly desiccation is recurrent, particularly, in the western section of the lake. Results suggested that this behaviour was probably due to a drought period in the basin that began in the mid 1990s. Regression models constructed from long-term data showed that fluctuations of lake level can be estimated by monthly mean precipitation and temperatures of the previous year.     

山西省防汛决策支持系统的功能与开发

随着“国家防汛指挥系统”工程的正式启动，山西省防汛决策支持系统的建设将提上议事日程，文中主要从系统建设的必要性、现状、功能设计和软件开发技术等方面初步探讨山西省防汛决策支持系统的建设。     

基于遗传算法和GIS技术的灌溉决策支持系统

通过先进的科技手段提高灌溉管理水平是现代农业发展的必然趋势,本介绍了一个基于遗传算法优化模型和GIS技术的灌溉决策支持系统。该系统由灌区信息管理模块,田间灌溉模拟模块,优化配水模块和GIS模块等组成,具有一定的智能性,通用性和可扩展性,界面友好,易于操作,为提高灌溉用水效率和灌溉管理水平,发展节水农业和精确农业,实现农业的可持续发展提供了一个可行的途径。     

基于SOA的工作流技术构建水电站群发电调度决策支持系统

面对复杂多变的电力市场环境,水电站群发电调度决策支持系统采用基于面向服务架构(SOA)的工作流程管理(Business Process Management,BPM)方案,通过业务流程建模、执行和重组,充分利用Web服务的优点,构建具有业务流程自动化和可重构能力的快速适应性系统,适应市场需求变化并快速响应变化.该方案使系统更易于改进和扩展,实现软件系统结构上的敏捷性.     

Neural Network Based Decision Support Model for Optimal Reservoir Operation

A decision support model (DSM) has been developed using the artificial neural networks (ANN) for optimal operation of a reservoir in south India. The DSM developed is a combination of a rule based expert system and ANN models, which are trained using the results from deterministic single reservoir optimisation algorithm. The developed DSM is also flexible to use multiple linear regression equations instead of trained neural network models for different time periods. A new approach is tried with the DSM based on trained neural network models, which use real time data of previous time periods for deciding operating policies. The developed DSM based on ANN outperforms the regression based approach.     

农九师水库洪水预报调度决策支持系统的研究

针对新疆中小流域洪水特点,充分借鉴其他水库防洪预报调度系统的成功经验,利用决策支持系统理论,建立了新疆中小流域水库洪水预报调度决策支持系统。系统被划分为人机接口层、系统应用层和系统支撑层三个层次。新疆农九师水库洪水预报调度决策支持系统的开发和研制,充分体现了先进性与实用性、安全性与可靠性、标准化与开放性以及完整性与一致性相结合的原则,运行中达到了满意的预期效果。     

Estimation of Soil Erosion for a Himalayan Watershed Using GIS Technique

The fragile ecosystem of the Himalayas has been an increasing cause of concern to environmentalists and water resources planners. The steep slopes in the Himalayas along with depletedforest cover, as well as high seismicity have been major factors in soil erosion and sedimentation in river reaches. Prediction ofsoil erosion is a necessity if adequate provision is to be madein the design of conservation structures to offset the ill effects of sedimentation during their lifetime.In the present study, two different soil erosion models, i.e. theMorgan model and Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) model, have been used to estimate soil erosion from a Himalayan watershed.Parameters required for both models were generated using remotesensing and ancillary data in GIS mode. The soil erosion estimated by Morgan model is in the order of 2200 t km^-2 yr^-1 and is within the limits reported for this region.The soil erosion estimated by USLE gives a higher rate. Therefore, for the present study the Morgan model gives, for area located in hilly terrain, fairly good results.     

GIS技术支持下的区域水资源管理

地理信息系统（GIS）就其强大的空间数据处理能力，为区域水资源管理提供了一个新颖、高效的工具。通过赵巷镇水资源管理信息系统的应用实例，阐明了基于GIS的区域水资源管理信息系统的构建过程，分析了两者结合应用的可行性和优越性，并讨论了这种方法在区域水资源系统模拟、辅助决策支持等方面的广泛应用前景。     

An Interval Fuzzy Multiobjective Watershed Management Model for the Lake Qionghai Watershed, China

Integrated watershed management is required to ensure the reasonable use of resources and reconcile interactions among natural and human systems. In the present study, an interval fuzzy multiobjective programming (IFMOP) method was used to solve an integrated watershed management problem. Based on system analysis, an IFMOP model suitable for a lake watershed system {IFMOPLWS} was developed and applied to the Lake Qionghai watershed in China. Scenario analysis and an interactive approach were used in the solution process. In this manner, various system components were incorporated into one framework for holistic consideration and optimization. Integrality and uncertainty, as well as the multiobjective and dynamic characteristics of the watershed system, were well addressed. Using two scenarios, two planning schemes were generated. Agriculture, tourism, macroeconomics, cropland use, water supply, forest coverage, soil erosion, and water pollution were fully interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative for local agencies. This study showed that the IFMOPLWS is a powerful tool for integrated watershed management planning and can provide a solid base for sustainable watershed management.     

Dam-Break Flood Emergency Management System

Natural or induced floods are of increasing concern to watermanagers and civil protection services for three main reasons.Firstly, a continuous and 'unconscious' increase of socialpressure in the flooding valleys amplifies flood vulnerabilitiesand consequently natural or induced flood risk. Secondly, thealarming forecasts of the impact of potential climate changes onwater resources, in spite of the high uncertainty associated tothese forecasts, points out to larger flood hazards. Thirdly,dam-break induced accidents may occur more frequently due toinfrastructure aging.Emergency Planning is a non-structural measure to minimise floodimpacts playing an important role in crisis management. In fact,if a disaster cannot be avoided, individual and social structurepreparedness may be of great help in risk reduction.An Internet-based system that supports flood emergencymanagement is presented in this article. This application is partof a more complete system, developed with the goal of endowingthe Portuguese water authorities, dam owners and the civilprotection system, with adequate tools to store and easilyretrieve information on dams and their downstream valleys, tomodel the flood wave induced by a dam break and, eventually, tomanage the response to flood-induced catastrophes.