Roles of ozone depleting substances and solar activity in observed long-term trends in total ozone column over Indian region

An additive time-series decomposition analysis was performed on the Multi Sensor Reanalysis-2 (MSR-2) monthly mean total ozone column (TOC) time-series dataset spanning over 34 years (January 1979–December 2012) for Indian region (0.0–40.0 °N; 67.5–97.5° E). Statistically significant (p-value <0.05) long-term trends in TOC were estimated in the deseasonalized TOC time series. The role of multiple natural and anthropogenic factors: quasi biennial oscillations (QBO), El-Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO), cyclic variation in solar activity (SA), and ozone depleting substances (ODS) was investigated to explain the long-term trends in TOC over Indian region. Over sub-tropical Indian region (25.0° N– 40.0° N), declining long-term linear trends were estimated, which varied from ?0.30% to ?1.10% per decade. Interestingly a positive long-term linear-trend (0.10–0.30% per decade) was observed over equatorial-tropical part of Indian region. No statistically significant long-term trend was observed for 30mb Equatorial Zonal Winds and Nino 3.4 index – indicators for QBO and ENSO; however, a positive long-term linear trend of magnitude 17.00 ± 1.18% per decade was observed in effective equivalent stratospheric chlorine – a proxy for ODS, and a negative long-term linear trend of magnitude 12.72 ± 2.86% per decade was observed in 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux – a representative for SF. It is inferred that over the Indian region above tropic of cancer, about 85.00% of the estimated negative long-term linear trend in TOC can be explained by the increase in the stratospheric concentration of ODS; whereas, decrease in the solar activity accounted for 15.00% of the estimated negative long-term linear trend in TOC over sub-tropical Indian region.     

Assessment of total columnar ozone climatological trends over the Indian sub-continent

In the present study, long term satellite and Dobson spectrophotometer Total Column Ozone (TCO) data have been used to study the interannual variability and also to assess climatological trends in TCO over different geographical locations of Indian sub-continent. TCO data were analyzed for the period 1957 to 2015 over New Delhi (28.63° N, 77.18° E), Varanasi (25.30° N, 83.02° E), Pune (18.53° N, 73.84° E) and Kodaikanal (10.0° N, 77.47° E). An extensive validation was performed for Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) retrieved TCO data independently with Dobson Spectrophotometer TCO measurements over New Delhi, Varanasi, Pune and Kodaikanal. The results of this exercise showed good correlation coefficient (r) of 0.87 (0.88), 0.84 (0.82), 0.91 (0.80) and 0.84 (Data not available) respectively. Climatological mean TCO over New Delhi, Varanasi, Pune and Kodaikanal are 275.02 ± 6.44 DU, 269.03 ± 7.34 DU, 260.78 ± 5.07 DU and 258.71 ± 6.36 DU respectively for the period 1957 to 2015. An increasing trend over New Delhi (0.20 DU year^–1), Pune (0.18 DU year^–1), Kodaikanal (0.14 DU year^–1) and decreasing trend over Varanasi (0.01 DU year^–1) were observed. High significance of TCO trend was found at New Delhi (p-value < 0.0001), Pune (p-value = 0.002) and Kodaikanal (p-value = 0.003) with negligible trend over Varanasi with p-value of 0.84. The TCO variations at different geographical locations associated with upper atmospheric meteorological parameters such as lower Stratospheric Temperature (ST) at 65 hPa and Tropopause Height (TH) were also addressed. Annual lower stratospheric temperature shows positive relationship with TCO and Stratospheric ozone over the study sites. Further, decadal variability in TCO with respect to solar activity at New Delhi was also analyzed.     

Tropospheric ozone variability over the Indian coastline and adjacent land and sea

A tropospheric ozone variability study is carried out to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution over the coastline of the Indian peninsula and adjacent land and sea using NASA Langley Tropospheric Ozone Residual data set for the period 1979–2005. A strong seasonal cycle has been observed with large variation (～ 55%) over the upper eastern coast, followed by the upper and lower western coast, compared to the lower eastern coast (～ 33%). A negative gradient in ozone concentration is observed along eastern and western coasts during summer (slope ～ –0.78 and –0.65) and a positive gradient (slope ～ 0.16 and 0.21) during winter. The same is observed over the adjacent land and sea along the coastline with slight variation. This change in gradient can be attributed to the anthropogenic emission of precursor gases that reinforce localized photochemical production of ozone. In addition, topography, transport, seasonality of emission of precursor gases and the solar insolation cycle play a vital role.     

Long-term trends of total ozone content over mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

Dynamic climatic normals and long-term trends of total ozone in the mid-latitudes of the Northern hemisphere (30°N–60°N) have been determined using data from satellite observations for the period of 1978–2017. The annual course of total ozone is shown as changing over the various regions during the period of observations. The specific features of alteration in the state of the ozone layer are discussed depending on latitude and longitude. Thus, a general increase in total ozone in winter, an increase in spring (with the exception of the northern latitudes of Europe, Asia, and Pacific), and a continuing decrease in summer (with the exception of the northern latitudes of America) during the last 17 years is revealed. The long-term trends of total ozone for different regions and latitude zones (30°N–40°N, 40°N–50°N, and 50°N–60°N) are given depending on season.     

On the variation of the tropospheric ozone over Indian region in relation to the meteorological parameters

Using monthly mean satellite measurements of TOMS/SBUV tropospheric ozone residual (TOR) data and meteorological parameters (tropopause height (TPH), 200 hPa geopotential height (GPH) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) during 1979–2001, seasonal variability of TOR data and their association with meteorological parameters are outlined over the Indian region. Prominent higher values of TOR (44–48 DU, which is higher than the globally averaged 31.5 DU) are observed over the northern parts of the country during the summer monsoon season (June–September). Similar to the TOR variation, meteorological parameters (tropopause height, 200 hPa geopotential height and outgoing longwave radiation) also show higher values during the summer monsoon season, suggesting an in phase relationship and strong association between them because of deep convection present during summer monsoon time. The monthly trends in TOR values are found to be positive over the region. TOR has significant positive correlations (5% level) with GPH, and negative correlations with OLR and TPH for the month of September. The oxidation chains initiated by CH₄ and CO show the enhanced photochemical production of ozone that would certainly become hazardous to the ecological system. Interestingly, greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions were found to have continuously increased over the Indian region during the period 1990–2000, indicating more anthropogenic production of ozone precursor gases causing higher level of tropospheric ozone during this period.     

On the longitude dependence of total ozone trends over middle-latitudes

It has recently been observed that the total ozone trends derived from certain geographical regions such as the Mediterranean and Athens (Greece) show similar values to those derived from the 40°N zonal averaged column ozone data. In this Letter, the total ozone concentration, collected by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) flown on Nimbus-7 and Meteor-3 during the time-period January 1979-December 1993, as well as by Earth Probe during the time-period January 1997-May 2001, for the Mediterranean, Athens (Greece) and Srinagar (India), is analysed. Further, the harmonic analysis performed on total ozone time-series provides a proper tool to interpret the observed similarity in total ozone seasonal trends, which may probably be attributed to the effect of planetary waves on the ozone distribution.     

Recent trends of the total column ozone: implications for the Mediterranean region

The daily ozone column amounts during the 14-year period (1979–1992), which are inferred from measurements made with both the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) mounted on board the Nimbus-7 satellite have been used to study longitudinal trends at mid-latitudes. The main findings are: (1) There is a large longitudinal variation of the monthly trend in total ozone over the northern mid-latitudes ranging from 1.5 to 8.5 per cent per year with a large standard error, (2) The trend in the total ozone content over the Mediterranean area varies in a similar way with the zonal average total ozone trend over mid-latitudes. Also, the trend of the total ozone over Athens, Greece, is representative of the whole Mediterranean region and so it is representative of the zonal average total ozone trend over the northern mid-latitudes, and (3) The interannual variability of the amplitude of the annual wave in the total ozone amount over the Mediterranean region compares extremely well with the interannual variability of the total ozone amount over this location.     

Satellite- and ground-based measurements of CO2 over the Indian region: its seasonal dependencies,spatial variability,and model estimates

ABSTRACT

The present study demonstrates the distribution of carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration over the Indian region and the surrounding oceanic regions during 2009–2012, using measurements from satellites viz., Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, Carbon Tracker (CT) model simulations and flask measurements from two Indian stations Sinhagad (SNG) (73°45′ E, 18°21′36″ N) and Cape Rama (CRI) (73°54′ E, 15°6′ N). The concentration of CO₂ is observed to be maximum during pre-monsoon and shows a decreasing phase during the post-monsoon season. In a regional scale, it is found that Indo-Gangetic Plain and northern India have relatively higher concentrations compared to the other regions. The probability distribution of the concentration differences shows that for most of the time, the differences lie between ±3 ppmv between GOSAT and CT. The comparison between the CO₂ flask measurements over SNG and CRI with respect to that of GOSAT and CT clearly reveals that the differences in CO₂ are as high as 10 ppmv between the ground- and satellite-based measurements. Further, we utilized the Lagrangian model FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) to understand the source?receptor relationship over CRI, SNG, and over the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO). The source contributions from the northern and eastern continental regions of the Indian region are found to be more influential over SNG compared to CRI. It is also found from simulations that the equatorial IO has less influence from the continental source and therefore has a reduced seasonal variability compared to the other regions considered in the present study.     

Variability and mechanisms of vertical distribution of aerosols over the Indian region

The present study investigates the seasonal variability in the vertical distribution of aerosol over the Indian region and its surroundings, and the possible mechanisms in the atmosphere that give rise to vertical transport of the aerosols. During boreal summer months, the aerosols reach a higher altitude of above 5 km over the Indian region. In the winter season, especially during December, January, and February, the aerosols remain at low levels of the atmosphere, extending to about 3 km. The low-level atmospheric conditions are favourable for lifting of aerosols associated with the organized convection in the atmosphere during the months from May to September. The shifting of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) towards the northern hemisphere and the monsoon activity associated with it makes the atmosphere turbulent over the region during the period. The vorticity and convergence patterns are favourable for the vertical transport of aerosols during the period from May to November. High vertical wind shear, which leads to the generation of turbulence during the monsoon season, enhances the mixing of aerosols in the atmosphere and supports the lifting motion. Over the Arabian Sea, during the summer months, the aerosols reach a higher altitude of about 6 km. The production of marine aerosols is increased by the monsoon winds over the sea, and the turbulent atmosphere lifts the particles to high altitudes. The transportation of dust aerosols from west and northwest parts is found at high altitudes towards the destination regions in north and south India. This also dominates the total aerosol content over the region.     

An assessment of satellite-based agricultural water productivity over the Indian region

The preliminary analysis of agricultural water productivity (AWP) over India using satellite data were investigated through productivity mapping, water use (actual evapotranspiration (ET_a)/effective rainfall (R_eff) mapping and water productivity mapping. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data was used for generating agricultural land cover (MCD12Q1 at 500 m), gross primary productivity (GPP; MOD17A2 at 1 km), and ET_a (MOD16A2 at 1 km). R_eff was estimated at 10 km using the United States Department of Agriculture soil conservation service method from daily National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center rainfall data. Six years’ (2007–2012) data were analysed from June to October. The seasonal AWP and rainwater productivity (RWP) were estimated using the ratios of seasonal GPP (kg C m^?2) and water use (mm) maps. The average AWP and RWP ranges from 1.10–1.30 kg Cm^?3 and 0.94–1.0 kg C m^?3, respectively, with no significant annual variability but a wide spatial variability over India. The highest AWP was observed in northern India (1.22–1.80 kg C m^?3) and lowest in western India (0.81–1.0 kg C m^?3). Large variations in AWP (0.69–1.80 kg C m^?3) were observed in Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, northeastern states (except Assam), Kerala, and Uttaranchal. The low GPP of these areas (0.0013–0.13 kg C m^?2) with low seasonal total ET_a (<101 mm) and R_eff (<72 mm) making the AWP high that do not correspond to high productivity but possible water stress. Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Karnataka showed low AWP (0.73–1.13 kg C m^?3) despite having high ET_a (261–558 mm) and high R_eff (287–469 mm), indicating significant scope for improving productivity. The highest RWP was observed in northern parts and Indo-Gangetic plains (0.80–1.6 kg C m^?3). The 6 years’ analysis reveals the status of AWP, leading to appropriate interventions to better manage land and water resources, which have great importance in global food security analysis.     

Comprehensive study on AOD trends over the Indian subcontinent: a statistical approach

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) trend analysis has been carried out using various statistical techniques over Indian sub-regions. AOD data acquired from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Terra and Aqua satellites from January 2003 to December 2015 have been utilized in the present study. Mann–Kendall test, Spearman partial rank correlation (SPRC) test, Pearson test, t-test, linear regression analysis, and Sen’s slope estimate are performed on 13 years of AOD data to observe the trend over different Indian sub-regions. AOD trend is found to be positive (0.0035–0.0154 per year) over different Indian sub-regions indicating the enhanced level of suspended particles over the Indian subcontinent. All six methods are evaluated for trend detection using both satellite data. Linear regression and Sen’s slope test provide good estimate of slope values to observe the magnitude of AOD change per year. Mann–Kendall test, SPRC test, and Pearson test support the trends results obtained from linear regression and Sen’s slope estimate. So, these tests are preferable for the trend analyses.     

Variation of total column ozone along the monsoon trough region over north India

This study examined the total column ozone (TCO) variations over New Delhi (28.65° N, 77.217° E) and Varanasi (25.32° N, 83.03° E), which lie along the monsoon trough region, and over the tropical station Kodaikanal (10.23° N, 77.46° E), which lies outside the monsoon trough. Monthly, seasonal and annual TCO variations were determined using data from ground-based Dobson spectrophotometers during 2000–2008, Brewer spectrophotometers during 2000–2005 and the satellite-based Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) during 2002–2008. We found that Dobson, Brewer and SCIAMACHY TCO variations showed negative trends, indicating a decreasing tendency during the period studied at all three stations. Over Varanasi, the trend decreased further by about 3 DU year^?1. Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) influences were seen in the time series of TCO over New Delhi and Varanasi, and weaker QBO signals over Kodaikanal. Comparisons were made between ground-based Dobson and Brewer spectrophotometer and SCIAMACHY satellite monthly mean TCO values. The differences between SCIAMACHY and Dobson TCO were 0.4–4.2% for New Delhi and 2.3–6.2% for Varanasi. The differences between SCIAMACHY and Brewer TCO values were 2.0–6.4% for Kodaikanal. In the peak monsoon months (July and August), decreases in TCO values over New Delhi and Varanasi (the monsoon trough region) may be due to the deep convection present during the monsoon season. During the monsoon season, several intense cyclonic systems appear over the monsoon trough region and may cause lowering of the TCO. Kodaikanal shows opposite features, with high values being observed during the peak monsoon months. TCO values over New Delhi were found to be higher than those over Varanasi and Kodaikanal, and TCO values over Varanasi were higher than over Kodaikanal. It was concluded that TCO values increase with increasing latitude.     

Impact of zonal wind on latitudinal variation of total columnar ozone over the Indian Peninsula

Latitudinal and seasonal variability of total columnar ozone from September 2007 to August 2008 across the Indian longitude sector within 10.5° N to 34.5° N and 70.5° E to 94.5° E using satellite data obtained from Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System (EOS) is presented. The total column ozone (TCO) over the area of study shows a gradually varying pattern throughout the year. In the post-monsoon (autumn) and winter months, maximum TCO is observed in the north-western part of the subcontinent while the minimum is often observed towards the east at about the same latitudes. A west–east spatial gradient is clearly observed in autumn months. As winter approaches, a north–south spatial gradient becomes more prominent than the east–west gradient. It has been further observed that TCO does not vary significantly over the entire subcontinent in monsoon.     

An evaluation of high-resolution multisatellite rainfall products over the Indian monsoon region

To date, more than half a dozen merged rainfall data sets are available to the research community. These data sets use different approaches for rainfall retrieval and combine different satellites or/and ground-based rainfall observations. However, these data sets appear to differ among themselves and deviate from in situ observations at regional and seasonal scales. Hence, it is becoming difficult to choose a suitable data set from these products for regional rainfall analyses. In the present study, four independently developed multisatellite high-resolution precipitation products (HRPPs), namely Climate Prediction Center Morphing (CMORPH) version 1.0, Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)–blended, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)–3B42 version 7 are compared with quality-controlled gridded rain gauge data over India developed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). A preliminary analysis is carried out for a 6 year period from 2004 to 2009 at daily scale for the summer monsoon season of June to September. Comparison of all-India seasonal (June to September) mean rainfall with rain gauge data shows a considerable underestimation by all HRPPs, although the underestimation is comparatively less for TMPA. Moreover, all the HRPPs are able to capture the important characteristic features of the summer monsoon rainfall such as intra-seasonal (active/break spells) and inter-annual (excess/deficient) variabilities reasonably well. Regional differences between observed rainfall and the HRPPs are also analysed. Results suggest that TMPA is comparatively closer to the ground-truth, possibly due to the incorporation of rain gauge observations. Furthermore, all the HRPPs show high probability of detection, low false alarm ratio, and high threat score in detection of rainfall events over most parts of India. It is also observed that all these HRPPs have certain issues in rainfall detection over the rain-shadow region of southeast peninsular India, semi-arid northwest parts of India, and hilly northern parts. Hence, results of the 6 year analysis over a region with a dense network of surface observations of rainfall suggest that the TMPA merged rainfall product is better than the other HRPPs due to (1) lower underestimation of rainfall, (2) higher correlation and lower root-mean-square error (RMSE), and (3) better performance over the west coast. Therefore, TMPA can be used with confidence as compared to other HRPPs for monsoon studies, particularly over the Indian land region with a considerable rain gauge network. This study also clarifies the fact that the merged satellite rainfall products with sufficient ground-truths can be the ideal product for monsoon and hydrological studies.     

Interannual variability of vegetation over the Indian sub-continent and its relation to the different meteorological parameters

The dynamic nature of climate over Indian sub-continent is well known which influences Indian monsoon. Such dynamic variability of climate factors can also have significant implications for the vegetation and agricultural productivity of this region. Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and wavelet decomposition techniques, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) monthly data over Indian sub-continent for 18 years from 1982 to 2000 have been used to study the variability of vegetation. The present study shows that the monsoon precipitation and land surface temperature over the Indian sub-continent landmass have significant impact on the distribution of vegetation. Tropospheric aerosols exert a strong influence too, albeit secondary to monsoon precipitation and prove to be a powerful governing factor. Local climate anomaly is seen to be more effective in determining the vegetation change than any global teleconnection effects. The study documents the dominating influence of monsoon precipitation and highlights the importance of aerosols on the vegetation and necessitates the need for remedial measures. The present study and an earlier one point towards a possible global teleconnection pattern of ENSO as it is seen to affect a particular mode of vegetation worldwide.     

Verification of dust forecast over the Indian region with satellite and ground based observations

This article presents the verification results of the dust forecast by a numerical model over India and neighbouring regions. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Unified Model (NCUM) is a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with a prognostic dust scheme. Evaluation of the performance of dust forecast by NCUM is carried out in this study. Model forecast of dust optical depth (DOD) at 550 nm is validated against ground-based and satellite observations since optical depth measurements in mid-visible wavelength are easily available. Daily 5-day forecast based on 00 UTC initial condition during dust dominated pre-monsoon season (April–May) of 2014 is used in this study. Location specific and geographical distribution of dust forecast is validated against Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite retrieved DOD observation at 532 nm, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), aerosol index, and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) station data of total and coarse mode AOD. The verification results indicate that NCUM dust forecast generally gives good representation of large scale geographical distribution of dust over the western region of India. DOD forecasts show good correlation with co-located CALIPSO DOD over the western part (0.71) compared to central (0.58) and eastern (0.61) part of India in April while it show similar trend in May with slightly improved correlation (0.68) over the eastern part of India. Results also show that DOD forecasts are better correlated to AERONET coarse mode AOD observations over Jaipur in April and over Kanpur in May. Vertical distribution of dust concentrations in the forecast show reasonably good agreement with attenuated backscatter and depolarization ratio from CALIPSO observations. The model is also able to simulate spatiotemporal distribution of dust during a major dust event as observed by CALIPSO, MODIS, and OMI.     

A stochastic model for predicting aerosol optical depth over the north Indian region

A simplistic model to forecast aerosol optical depth (AOD) over north India is presented in this study. The forecasts are generated by integrating the available high-resolution AOD data using time series modelling techniques. The forecasts are done using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. It is found that the modelled values show good fit with the multiangle imaging spectroradiometer data during the years 2000–2010. This long-term statistical dependence shows that AOD over the north Indian region exhibits a long memory. The forecasts for the next 12 months were done at a 95% level of confidence. Our analysis confirms that using time series models prediction of AOD is possible, particularly during the summer months when the region is dominated by dust aerosols. The results obtained using the chosen ARIMA model suggest that this model proposes a simple and efficient method for determining the future values of AOD compared to more complex deterministic models.     

Atmospheric ozone variability in the context of global change

A survey has been made of the role and place of atmospheric ozone dynamics in both the stratosphere and troposphere in the context of global change. Impacts on the ozone layer from solar activity (extraterrestrial solar ultraviolet irradiance variations), volcanic eruptions and high-flying aircraft have been discussed. Tropospheric ozone and surface ultraviolet irradiance changes have been considered, including relevant biological implications. Influences of the stratospheric ozone depletion on climate change have been discussed with emphasis on a coupled nature of ozone-climate interrelations. A necessity has been substantiated to develop a complex ozone studies programme in the context of the World Climate Research Programme and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme.     

Anthropogenic aerosol fraction over the Indian region: model simulations versus multi-satellite data analysis

Anthropogenic aerosols play a crucial role in our environment, climate, and health. Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in anthropogenic aerosols is essential to determine their impact. Aerosols are of natural and anthropogenic origin and together constitute a composite aerosol system. Information about either component needs elimination of the other from the composite aerosol system. In the present work we estimated the anthropogenic aerosol fraction (AF) over the Indian region following two different approaches and inter-compared the estimates. We espouse multi-satellite data analysis and model simulations (using the CHIMERE Chemical transport model) to derive natural aerosol distribution, which was subsequently used to estimate AF over the Indian subcontinent. These two approaches are significantly different from each other. Natural aerosol satellite-derived information was extracted in terms of optical depth while model simulations yielded mass concentration. Anthropogenic aerosol fraction distribution was studied over two periods in 2008: pre-monsoon (March–May) and winter (November–February) in regard to the known distinct seasonality in aerosol loading and type over the Indian region. Although both techniques have derived the same property, considerable differences were noted in temporal and spatial distribution. Satellite retrieval of AF showed maximum values during the pre-monsoon and summer months while lowest values were observed in winter. On the other hand, model simulations showed the highest concentration of AF in winter and the lowest during pre-monsoon and summer months. Both techniques provided an annual average AF of comparable magnitude (~0.43 ± 0.06 from the satellite and ~0.48 ± 0.19 from the model). For winter months the model-estimated AF was ~0.62 ± 0.09, significantly higher than that (0.39 ± 0.05) estimated from the satellite, while during pre-monsoon months satellite-estimated AF was ~0.46 ± 0.06 and the model simulation estimation ~0.53 ± 0.14. Preliminary results from this work indicate that model-simulated results are nearer to the actual variation as compared to satellite estimation in view of general seasonal variation in aerosol concentrations.     

Long-term changes in total ozone column content and its association with stratospheric temperature over two neighbouring tropical Asian stations

This paper focuses on the long-term declining change in total ozone column (TOC) derived from satellite measurements over a 25 year period over two neighbouring tropical Asian sites, Karachi, and Mt Abu. A strong declining trend was observed in TOC at both sites, with a significance level of over 95% and a higher magnitude of 4 to 10 DU per decade in September to December and a weak statistical significance level of below 85% and a lower magnitude of 2 to 4 DU per decade in pre-monsoon months. However, during the monsoon months, a small declining trend of about 1 DU per decade was observed, but this variation is statistically insignificant. Further, the long-term changes in TOC exhibit seasonal dependence with a more negative change of 10 DU per decade in winter over Karachi and 7 DU per decade over Mt Abu. The consequence of such a net long-term declining change in TOC as high as 10 DU per decade is expected to have serious environmental implications due to an overall increase in ground-level solar UV radiation of 18% over the normal values in the tropics. In order to identify some plausible causes of this depletion trend in ozone concentration with stratospheric temperature and solar activity, it is clear that there is a strong relationship between the seasonal dependence of the long-term declining trend of TOC on air temperature at 10 mb or stratospheric cooling. At the same time, there is a less significant long-term variation in TOC due to altered solar activity levels.