Modelling corn production in China using AVHRR‐based vegetation health indices

Weather‐related crop losses have always been a concern for farmers, governments, traders and policy makers for the purpose of balanced food supplies, demands, trade, and distribution of aid to nations in need. Therefore, early crop loss assessment in response to weather fluctuations is an important issue. This paper discusses the utility of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)‐based vegetation health indices as a proxy for modelling corn yield and for early warning of drought‐related losses of agricultural production in China. The indices were tested in Jilin province on corn yield during 1982–2001 using correlation and regression analysis. A strong correlation between corn yield and the vegetation health indices were found during the critical period of corn growth, which starts 2–3 weeks before and 2–3 weeks after corn tassel. Following the results of correlation analysis, several regression equations were constructed where vegetation health indices were used as independent variables. The estimates of corn yield can be carried out well in advance of harvest and the errors of the estimates are 7–10%. The errors become smaller when the estimations are related to losses in corn yield due to drought.     

Integration of MODIS LAI and vegetation index products with the CSM–CERES–Maize model for corn yield estimation

Advanced information on crop yield is important for crop management and food policy making. A data assimilation approach was developed to integrate remotely sensed data with a crop growth model for crop yield estimation. The objective was to model the crop yield when the input data for the crop growth model are inadequate, and to make the yield forecast in the middle of the growing season. The Cropping System Model (CSM)–Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)–Maize and the Markov Chain canopy Reflectance Model (MCRM) were coupled in the data assimilation process. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Leaf Area Index (LAI) and vegetation index products were assimilated into the coupled model to estimate corn yield in Indiana, USA. Five different assimilation schemes were tested to study the effect of using different control variables: independent usage of LAI, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and synergic usage of LAI and EVI or NDVI. Parameters of the CSM–CERES–Maize model were initiated with the remotely sensed data to estimate corn yield for each county of Indiana. Our results showed that the estimated corn yield agreed very well with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) data. Among different scenarios, the best results were obtained when both MODIS vegetation index and LAI products were assimilated and the relative deviations from the NASS data were less than 3.5%. Including only LAI in the model performed moderately well with a relative difference of 8.6%. The results from using only EVI or NDVI were unacceptable, as the deviations were as high as 21% and ?13% for the EVI and NDVI schemes, respectively. Our study showed that corn yield at harvest could be successfully predicted using only a partial year of remotely sensed data.     

Use of remote sensing data for estimation of winter wheat yield in the United States

This paper shows the application of remote sensing data for estimating winter wheat yield in Kansas. An algorithm uses the Vegetation Health (VH) Indices (Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI)) computed for each week over a period of 23 years (1982–2004) from Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. The weekly indices were correlated with the end of the season winter wheat (WW) yield. A strong correlation was found between winter wheat yield and VCI (characterizing moisture conditions) during the critical period of winter wheat development and productivity that occurs during April to May (weeks 16 to 23). Following the results of correlation analysis, the principal components regression (PCR) method was used to construct a model to predict yield as a function of the VCI computed for this period. The simulated results were compared with official agricultural statistics showing that the errors of the estimates of winter wheat yield are less than 8%. Remote sensing, therefore, is a valuable tool for estimating crop yields well in advance of harvest, and at a low cost.     

Using remotely sensed and ancillary data to predict spatial variability of rainfed crop yield

Rainfed agriculture is dominant in Sudan. The current methods for crop yield estimation are based on taking random cutting samples during harvesting time. This is ineffective in terms of cost of information and time. The general objective of this study is to highlight the potential role of remote-sensing techniques in upgrading methods of monitoring rainfed agricultural performance. The specific objective is to develop a relationship between satellite-derived crop data and yield of rainfed sorghum. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), rainfall, air temperature (AT) and soil moisture (SM) are used as independent variables and yield as a dependent variable. To determine the uncertainty associated with the independent variables, a sensitivity analysis (SA) is conducted. Multiple models are developed using different combinations of data sets. The temporal images taken during sorghum’s mid-season growth stage give a better prediction than those taken during its development growth stage. Among predictor variables, SM is associated with the highest uncertainty.     

Prediction of rice crop yield using MODIS EVI−LAI data in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

Predicting rice crop yield at the regional scale is important for production estimates that ensure food security for a country. This study aimed to develop an approach for rice crop yield prediction in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and leaf area index (LAI). Data processing consisted of four main steps: (1) constructing time-series vegetation indices, (2) noise filtering of time-series data using the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), (3) establishment of crop yield models, and (4) model validation. The results indicated that the quadratic model using two variables (EVI and LAI) produced more accurate results than other models (i.e. linear, interaction, pure quadratic, and quadratic with a single variable). The highest correlation coefficients obtained at the ripening period for the spring–winter and autumn–summer crops were 0.70 and 0.74, respectively. The robustness of the established models was evaluated by comparisons between the predicted yields and crop yield statistics for 10 sampling districts in 2006 and 2007. The comparisons revealed satisfactory results for both years, especially for the spring–winter crop. In 2006, the root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean bias error (MBE) for the spring–winter crop were 10.18%, 8.44% and 0.9%, respectively, while the values for the autumn–summer crop were 17.65%, 14.06%, and 3.52%, respectively. In 2007, the spring–winter crop also yielded better results (RMSE = 10.56%, MAE = 9.14%, MBE = 3.68%) compared with the autumn–summer crop (RMSE = 17%, MAE = 12.69%, MBE = 2.31%). This study demonstrates the merit of using MODIS data for regional rice crop yield prediction in the Mekong Delta before the harvest period. The methods used in this study could be transferable to other regions around the world.     

Using hyperspectral vegetation indices to estimate the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by corn canopies

The fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) absorbed by vegetation – a key parameter in crop biomass and yields as well as net primary productivity models – is critical to guiding crop management activities. However, accurate and reliable estimation of FPAR is often hindered by a paucity of good field-based spectral data, especially for corn crops. Here, we investigate the relationships between the FPAR of corn (Zea mays L.) canopies and vegetation indices (VIs) derived from concurrent in situ hyperspectral measurements in order to develop accurate FPAR estimates. FPAR is most strongly (positively) correlated to the green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) and the scaled normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI*). Both GNDVI and NDVI* increase with FPAR, but GNDVI values stagnate as FPAR values increase beyond 0.75, as previously reported according to the saturation of VIs – such as NDVI – in high biomass areas, which is a major limitation of FPAR-VI models. However, NDVI* shows a declining trend when FPAR values are greater than 0.75. This peculiar VI–FPAR relationship is used to create a piecewise FPAR regression model – the regressor variable is GNDVI for FPAR values less than 0.75, and NDVI* for FPAR values greater than 0.75. Our analysis of model performance shows that the estimation accuracy is higher, by as much as 14%, compared with FPAR prediction models using a single VI. In conclusion, this study highlights the feasibility of utilizing VIs (GNDVI and NDVI*) derived from ground-based spectral data to estimate corn canopy FPAR, using an FPAR estimation model that overcomes limitations imposed by VI saturation at high FPAR values (i.e. in dense vegetation).     

Spectro-meteorological modelling of sorghum yield using single date IRS LISS-I and rainfall distribution data

The yield of grain Sorghum cultivated in dry-land regions in India fluctuates widely in relation to its critical growth phases depending on the weather conditions. Vegetation indices derived form remote sensing data acquired at the time of maximum vegetative growth are indicative of crop growth and vigour and consequent potential grain yields. In this paper we investigate rabi (winter) sorghum yields using Indian Remote Sensing Satellite's Linear Imaging and Self Scanning-I (IRS LISS-I) sensor data and monthly rainfall distribution data of the recent four seasons for the 37 tehsils (sub-units of districts) that constitute the three principal sorghum producing districts of the central Maharashtra state (India). The multiple linear regression yield models with both the spectral and spectro-meteorological parameters have been developed for tehsil, as well as the district yields, by identifying critical parameters with model estimation errors of about 22 per cent on tehsil yields and about 5 per cent on district yields. The yields are found to be correlated significantly with monsoon rainfall about 1 to 2 months before sowing. This study brings out the problems of yield modelling of the semi-arid tropical crop in a small region using remote sensing data only, and shows that the vegetation indices deduced from remote sensing data are found to be good indicators of the yield on large spatial scales, as the effects of varying rainfall on yields largely cancel out.     

Crop yield estimation by satellite remote sensing

Two methods for estimating the yield of different crops in Hungary from satellite remote sensing data are presented. The steps of preprocessing the remote sensing data (for geometric, radiometric, atmospheric and cloud scattering correction) are described. In the first method developed for field level estimation, reference crop fields were selected by using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data for classification. A new vegetation index (General Yield Unified Reference Index (GYURI)) was deduced using a fitted double-Gaussian curve to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data during the vegetation period. The correlation between GYURI and the field level yield data for corn for three years was R ²=0.75. The county-average yield data showed higher correlation (R ²=0.93). A significant distortion from the model gave information of the possible stress of the field. The second method presented uses only NOAA AVHRR and officially reported county-level yield data. The county-level yield data and the deduced vegetation index, GYURRI, were investigated for eight different crops for eight years. The obtained correlation was high (R ²=84.6–87.2). The developed robust method proved to be stable and accurate for operational use for county-, region- and country-level yield estimation. The method is simple and inexpensive for application in developing countries, too.     

Assessing growth and yield of wheat using remotely-sensed canopy temperature and spectral indices

Abstract

Prediction models were developed for wheat to assess crop growth in terms of leaf area index, dry matter production and grain yield from remotely-sensed temperature and spectral indices. The cumulative stress degree days (SDD) for the period of flowering to grain formation stage showed significantly higher correlation with dry matter (r= — 0940) and grain yield (r= —0-939) whereas that, for the period grain formation to harvest stage, showed significantly higher correlation lpar;r= —0-967) for crop water use. Significant and positive correlations between dry matter, leaf area and grain yield with infrared/red, normalised difference (ND), transformed vegetation index and greenness index were attained with the latter providing the highest degree of predictability. Spectral indices measured between flowering to milking stages gave the best prediction indicating the suitability of this period for crop growth assessment by this technique. Inter-stage sensitivity analysis by using multiple regression approach also revealed that greenness and transformed vegetation indices could provide better prediction of dry matter and grain yield. From the values of regression coefficients the jointing to beginning of milk formation period of the crop was found to be the most sensitive stage influencing the yield of crop.     

在植物生长周期内县级区域植被指数的时空演变特征分析

采用１９９１至１９９２年晴空时的ＮＯＡＡ卫星ＡＶＨＲＲ资料，计算甘肃省河东地区６０个县（市）作物和牧草生长周期内标准化差植被指数（ＮＤＶＩ）的平均值和标准差，并逐县绘制其时间演变曲线和直方图。选取以农作物、草地和森林草地混合为主的三类县作对比分析，研究县级区域植被指数时空变化与作物和牧草生育期的关系。分析１９９１至１９９２年度冬小麦生长周期内遇到严重干旱的情况，为干旱监测、估产和区分土地使用类型选择最佳时相提供依据     

Corn‐yield estimation through assimilation of remotely sensed data into the CSM‐CERES‐Maize model

One of the applications of crop simulation models is to estimate crop yield during the current growing season. Several studies have tried to integrate crop simulation models with remotely sensed data through data‐assimilation methods. This approach has the advantage of allowing reinitialization of model parameters with remotely sensed observations to improve model performance. In this study, the Cropping System Model‐CERES‐Maize was integrated with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) products for estimating corn yield in the state of Indiana, USA. This procedure, inversion of crop simulation model, facilitates several different user input modes and outputs a series of agronomic and biophysical parameters, including crop yield. The estimated corn yield in 2000 compared reasonably well with the US Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service statistics for most counties. Using the seasonal LAI in the optimization procedure produced the best results compared with only the green‐up LAIs or the highest LAI values. Planting, emergence and maturation dates, and N fertilizer application rates were also estimated at a regional level. Further studies will include investigating model uncertainties and using other MODIS products, such as the enhanced vegetation index.     

基于时序定量遥感的冬小麦长势监测与估产研究

遥感技术是高效、客观监测农作物生长状态的重要手段，对农业生产管理具有重要意义。以安徽龙亢农场为研究区，收集了中高分辨率多源卫星遥感数据并进行了定量化处理，构建了冬小麦叶绿素密度、叶面积指数的遥感反演模型，生产了长时序冬小麦植被参数卫星遥感产品。通过监测冬小麦叶绿素密度、叶面积指数的时序变化规律，分析了不同品种冬小麦的长势情况，发现高产量小麦在越冬期长势显著优于低产量小麦。在此基础上，构建了基于归一化植被指数（NDVI）的冬小麦估产模型，结果表明：利用小麦抽穗期和乳熟期的累计NDVI值可以实现产量的精确估算，据此绘制了龙亢农场2017年冬小麦产量遥感估算地图，产量分布与实际种植情况吻合良好。实现了基于时序卫星定量遥感数据的冬小麦长势监测和产量预测，为区域范围内农作物长势监测提供了一种有效途径。     

基于时序定量遥感的冬小麦长势监测与估产研究

遥感技术是高效、客观监测农作物生长状态的重要手段,对农业生产管理具有重要意义。以安徽龙亢农场为研究区,收集了中高分辨率多源卫星遥感数据并进行了定量化处理,构建了冬小麦叶绿素密度、叶面积指数的遥感反演模型,生产了长时序冬小麦植被参数卫星遥感产品。通过监测冬小麦叶绿素密度、叶面积指数的时序变化规律,分析了不同品种冬小麦的长势情况,发现高产量小麦在越冬期长势显著优于低产量小麦。在此基础上,构建了基于归一化植被指数（NDVI）的冬小麦估产模型,结果表明：利用小麦抽穗期和乳熟期的累计NDVI值可以实现产量的精确估算,据此绘制了龙亢农场2017年冬小麦产量遥感估算地图,产量分布与实际种植情况吻合良好。实现了基于时序卫星定量遥感数据的冬小麦长势监测和产量预测,为区域范围内农作物长势监测提供了一种有效途径。     

Correlation between potato yield and MODIS‐derived vegetation indices

Monitoring of crop growth and forecasting its yield well before harvest is very important for crop and food management. Remote sensing images are capable of identifying crop health, as well as predicting its yield. Vegetation indices (VIs), such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf area index (LAI) and fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) calculated from remotely sensed data have been widely used to monitor crop growth and to predict crop yield. This study used 8 day TERRA MODIS reflectance data of 500 m resolution for the years 2005 to 2006 to estimate the yield of potato in the Munshiganj area of Bangladesh. The satellite data has been validated using ground truth data from fields of 50 farmers. Regression models are developed between VIs and field level potato yield for six administrative units of Munshiganj District. The yield prediction equations have high coefficients of correlation (R ²) and are 0.84, 0.72 and 0.80 for the NDVI, LAI and fPAR, respectively. These equations were validated by using data from 2006 to 2007 seasons and found that an average error of estimation is about 15% for the study region. It can be concluded that VIs derived from remote sensing can be an effective tool for early estimation of potato yield.     

基于Sentinel-2的UNVI植被指数及性能对比研究

作物精准识别和分类是农业遥感检测的重要内容,对作物长势监测以及估产十分重要。以美国混合农业带为研究区,基于Sentinel-2时间序列影像,根据其传感器响应函数计算了针对Sentinel-2的通用归一化植被指数（Universal Normalized Vegetation Index,UNVI）,并通过两个对比实验,分析UNVI等6个指数在作物精准分类中的性能。实验一以JM（Jeffries-Matusita）距离为指标对不同作物类别之间的可分性进行分析,结果表明UNVI优于NDVI、EVI、WDRVI、NDre1和NDWI指数,在玉米和棉花、玉米和水稻、玉米和水稻的区分上,UNVI优于其他指数区分能力相当,但在其余的作物组合上如棉花和水稻,NDVI等指数则无法将其很好的区分,此时UNVI指数依然可以表现出较好的区分能力;实验二对6种时间序列指数特征分别使用随机森林和支持向量机进行作物分类,结果表明UNVI指数的总体精度和Kappa系数最高,其次是NDre1指数和WDRVI指数,EVI的总体精度和Kappa系数最低,这表明UNVI比其他6个指数更好地区分了研究区大豆、玉米、棉花和水稻等4种主要作物。综上,基于Sentinel-2时间序列的UNVI指数在进行作物分类时与其他5种遥感植被指数相比,具有较大的优势,UNVI可为农作物长势分析和作物估产研究等农业研究和应用的可选植被指数。     

Spectral estimation of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation in corn canopies

Most models of crop growth and yield require an estimate of canopy leaf area index or absorption of radiation; however, direct measurement of LAI or light absorption can be tedious and time-consuming. The object of this study was to develop relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by corn (Zea mays L.) canopies and the spectral reflectance of the canopies. Absorption of PAR was measured near solar noon in corn canopies planted in north-south rows at densities of 50,000 and 100,000 plants ha.^?1 Reflectance factor data were acquired with a radiometer with spectral bands similar to the Landsat MSS. Three spectral vegetation indices (ratio of near infrared to red reflectance, normalized difference, and greenness) were associated with more than 95% of the variability in absorbed PAR from planting to silking. The relationships developed between absorbed PAR and the three indices were tested with reflectance factor data acquired from corn canopies planted in 1979–1982 that excluded those canopies from which the equations were developed. Treatments included in these data were two hybrids, four planting densities (25, 50, 75, and 100 thousand plantsha^?1), three soil types (Typic Argiaquoll, Udollic Ochraqualf, and Aeric Ochraqualf), and several planting dates. Seasonal cumulations of measured LAI and each of the three indices were associated with greater than 50% of the variation in final grain yields from the test years. Seasonal cumulations of daily absorbed PAR, estimated indirectly from the multispectral reflectance of the canopies, were associated with up to 73% of the variation in final grain yields. Absorbed PAR, cumulated through the growing season, is a better indicator of yield than cumulated leaf area index.     

Modelling and prediction of malaria vector distribution in Bangladesh from remote-sensing data

Epidemic malaria cases and satellite-based vegetation health (VH) indices were investigated to be used as predictors of malaria vector activities in Bangladesh. The VH indices were derived from radiances, measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) afternoon polar orbiting satellites. Two indices characterizing moisture and thermal conditions were investigated using correlation and regression analysis applied to the number of malaria cases recorded in the entire Bangladesh region and three administrative divisions (Chittagong, Sylhet and Dhaka) during 1992–2001. It is shown that during the cooler months (November to March), when mosquitoes are less active, the correlation between number of malaria cases and two investigated indices was near zero. From April, when the mosquito activity season starts, the correlation increased, reaching a maximum value of 0.5–0.8 by the middle of the high season (June to July), reducing thereafter to zero by the beginning of the cool season in November. Following these results, regressional equations for the number of malaria cases as a function of VH indices were built and tested independently. They showed that, in the main malaria administrative division (Chittagong) and the entire Bangladesh region, the regressional equations can be used for early prediction of malaria development.     

Yield estimation and forecasting for winter wheat in Hungary using time series of MODIS data

Wheat is one of the most important crops in Hungary, which represents approximately 20% of the entire agricultural area of the country, and about 40% of cereals. A robust yield method has been improved for estimating and forecasting wheat yield in Hungary in the period of 2003–2015 using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the data of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. Estimation was made at the end of June – it is generally the beginning of harvest of winter wheat in Hungary – while the forecasts were performed 1–7 weeks earlier. General yield unified robust reference index (GYURRI) vegetation index was calculated each year using different curve-fitting methods to the NDVI time series. The correlation between GYURRI and country level yield data gave correlation coefficient (r) of 0.985 for the examined 13 years in the case of estimation. Simulating a quasi-operative yield estimation process, 10 years’ (2006–2015) yield data was estimated. The differences between the estimated and actual yield data provided by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office were less than 5%, the average difference was 2.5%. In the case of forecasting, these average differences calculated approximately 2 and 4 weeks before the beginning of harvest season were 4.5% and 6.8%, respectively. We also tested the yield estimation procedure for smaller areas, for the 19 counties (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics-3 level) of Hungary. We found that, the relationship between GYURRI and the county level yield data had r of 0.894 for the years 2003–2014, and by simulating the quasi-operative forecast for 2015, the resulting 19 county average yield values differed from the actual yield as much as 8.7% in average.     

A comparison of TerraSAR-X Quadpol backscattering with RapidEye multispectral vegetation indices over rice fields in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

Satellite-based multispectral imagery and/or synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data have been widely used for vegetation characterization, plant physiological parameter estimation, crop monitoring or even yield prediction. However, the potential use of satellite-based X-band SAR data for these purposes is not fully understood. A new generation of X-band radar satellite sensors offers high spatial resolution images with different polarizations and, therefore, constitutes a valuable information source. In this study, we utilized a TerraSAR-X satellite scene recorded during a short experimental phase when the sensor was running in full polarimetric ‘Quadpol’ mode. The radar backscatter signals were compared with a RapidEye reference data set to investigate the potential relationship of TerraSAR-X backscatter signals to multispectral vegetation indices and to quantify the benefits of TerraSAR-X Quadpol data over standard dual- or single-polarization modes. The satellite scenes used cover parts of the Mekong Delta, the rice bowl of Vietnam, one of the major rice exporters in the world and one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The use of radar imagery is especially advantageous over optical data in tropical regions because the availability of cloudless optical data sets may be limited to only a few days per year. We found no significant correlations between radar backscatter and optical vegetation indices in pixel-based comparisons. VV and cross-polarized images showed significant correlations with combined spectral indices, the modified chlorophyll absorption ratio index/second modified triangular vegetation index (MCARI/MTVI2) and transformed chlorophyll absorption in reflectance index/optimized soil-adjusted vegetation index (TCARI/OSAVI), when compared on an object basis. No correlations between radar backscattering at any polarization and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were observed.