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2009年中国石油国内原油产量为18949.4万t,净进口原油19860.5万t,净进口成品油1191.84万t,表现对外依存度达到52.7%,可能一部分进口原油已转化为石油储备,但总体上石油对外依存度已超过50%。此外进口了石油液化气324.25万t,其它石油产品461.58万t。未来中国石油自身产量增长主要来自海上, 相似文献
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2010年前11个月,原油对外依存度达到53.7%,距离60%~65%的警戒线越来越近,石油安全风险日益严峻。 相似文献
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美国能源信息署(EIA)在7月发表的《2005年国际能源展望》中指出,2025年之前全世界有足够的石油供应,世界石油产量高峰在2030年以后才会出现。预测2025年世界石油供应将比2002年多4100万桶/日,而增加的石油供应将有59%来自欧佩克产油国。2025年欧佩克的石油产量将比2002年多2400万桶/日,达到5270万桶/日。 相似文献
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石油峰值(Peak Oil)是指某一区域(全球、地区、国家、油区等)石油产量的最大值及其来临的时间。中国经济的可持续发展需要大量的能源作保障,然而资源的有限性将成为其最大的瓶颈,基于此提出了对石油峰值问题的几点认识:石油峰值是客观存在的;世界石油峰值必然会来临,只是在到来的具体时间问题上存在分歧;科技进步可以延缓但不能改变石油峰值的到来;目前石油替代品产量对于巨大的能源缺口仍是杯水车薪;石油峰值的到来必然对石油产业链造成一定程度的负面影响;应正视石油峰值并加大研究力度。 相似文献
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关于中国油气资源潜力的几个问题 总被引:4,自引:6,他引:4
钱基 《石油与天然气地质》2004,25(4):363-369
通过多种方法,对中国的油气资源潜力、中长期的石油需求和目前油气勘探阶段等问题进行了分析研究,结果为中国的油气资源探明程度很低,石油勘探尚处在发现高峰期,天然气勘探处在发现早期;仅用某个时间段的单因素趋势诸如消费指数、GDP增长关联系数等进行油气的需求预测,将得出误差较大的预测结果。预计到2020年,国内可以新增探明石油地质储量160×108~200×108t,新增探明天然气地质储量8×1012~10×1012m3;中国石油进口量占消费总量的比例将会控制在40%以内。中国的石油可采资源量不小于260×108t。中国目前油气资源需求的主要矛盾体现在:一是资源潜力还很大,二是资源的发现速度仍然比较慢。加快油气的发现速度、降低能耗、调整能源结构是当务之急。因此,一方面政府应加快出台一系列激励油气发现和调整能源消费的相关政策,另一方面石油公司则应继续加大新区油气勘探的投入,提高油气资源的探明速度和油气资源的转化程度,提高国内油气产量占总消费量的比例,减缓石油进口比例过高带来的压力,维护国家的石油战略安全。 相似文献
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《中国油气》2018,(3)
China's oil import dependence had risen to 72% in 2017, while its net imports of various oil products,including crude oil, refined oil, liquefied petroleum gas(LPG) and other products, had climbed to 418.8 million tons, an increase by10.7% over 2016. China's crude oil import reached 420 million tons, surpassed the United States for the first time, and China had become the biggest crude oil importing country in the world. Net export of the refined oil, mainly the diesel, continued to increase to 22.7 million tons, as driven by the oversupply situation of the domestic market. Last year, China's LPG import was 18.45 million tons, but its growth was diminishing.Oil price would continue to rise in 2018, while the domestic demand of refined oil would be maintained at a lower rate of growth. However, driving by new refining capacities to be brought online, it is estimated that the crude oil import would still be increased remarkably. LPG import would reach a new high due to the growth potential and strong demand for feedstocks in the petrochemical product market. 相似文献
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文章对世界范围内的环烷基润滑油生产商及其生产能力进行了介绍,对国内环烷基润滑油的消费领域、消费构成、消费总量及主要生产商进行了分析,同时还对未来环烷基润滑油的市场需求进行了预测。环烷基润滑油约占我国润滑油消费总量的16%,其主导产品为橡胶油和变压器油,分别占环烷基润滑油总消费的40%和27%,2010年我国环烷基基础油产量在100万t左右,预计2015年总需求量将达到140万t左右。 相似文献
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修正Hubbert模型及世界石油产量临界点预测 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
世界原油生产过程中长期有组织地限产已使产量曲线明显偏离了理想Hubbert曲线,具有"分段截头移位"特征。根据修正Hubbert模型,限产期内可以存在多个产量峰值,但对世界石油经济的影响仅是产量转向永久性递减的临界点。在全球石油终极可采储量3955×108t的前提下,全球石油产量的临界点可能出现在2026-2032年,届时全球石油产量约为(46.86~65.82)×108t/a,储量采出程度约为67.7%;若全球石油储量采用2910×108t的保守估计,世界石油产量将可能在2013年前后出现全面递减。世界石油工业这一重大转折将对油公司的可持续发展提出严峻挑战。 相似文献
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1991年以来我国石油消费快速增长,必须通过各种措施,尽最大努力把2020年石油消费量控制在4.5×108t以内。国内石油必须长期持续稳定生产,预计到2010年我国原油年产量将进入高峰期,达到约1.8×108t,维持到2020年是比较有把握的,如果新区有较大的发现,也可增加至2×108t。近年来,天然气工业发展迅猛,预计到2010年和2020年,天然气年产量将分别达到800×108m3和1200×108m3,加上进口的管道气和液化天然气,可以逐步改善能源结构。要实现这三大目标,保障油气资源可持续发展,就应该大力发展科学技术。 相似文献
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《中国油气》2016,(1)
Domestic economic growth slowed down and supply exceeded demand in oil market in 2015, so the growth of refineries' processing volume was limited. Nevertheless, the gradual decontrol of market and the storage requirement under low oil price, crude oil imports hit a record high of 335.5 million tons, with the growth rate approximating 9%. Refined oil exports soared and imports decreased, which made China become a net refined oil exporter for the first time for 24 years, and net imports reached 6.22 million tons. Robust requirement on chemical raw materials propelled imported liquefied petroleum gas market to go on expanding. Imports exceeded 12 million tons in 2015, thus China leaped into the world's largest liquefied petroleum gas importer. In 2016, oil consumption growth would be kept at lower level. However, China would further decontrol crude oil import and refined oil export permits and put incremental storage capacity into use. Therefore, crude oil imports would continue to rise up, and refined oil exports may hit a new historic high. Imported liquefied petroleum gas market will enter into a stage of stable growth after two years' rapid development. 相似文献
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分析了我国原油供求形势,预测了我国不同高峰原油产量及发展趋势,认为我国原油产量已进入高峰期,高峰平台在180~200 Mt/a,高峰平台还有望延续到2035年以后。按照常规原油储量和产量来看,我国原油供需矛盾是非常突出的,主要表现在:原油加工能力持续增长,近5年,全国原油加工能力与加工量分别增长了20.58%和29.36%,而同期世界原油加工能力仅增长3.57%。与此同时,中国炼油能力布局及企业规模调整也在加快。原油缺口和进口依赖形势更加严峻,进入本世纪以来,我国原油进口量和进口依存度同步增长,我国进口原油从2008年起就已经超出了进口依存度50%的警界线,而且越来越严重。目前我国进口原油主要从三条陆上运输管道和海上运输的方式进入国内原油运输管网。 相似文献
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2010年我国进口原油2.39亿吨,原油对外依存度已经超过55%.截至2010年,三大石油公司的海外业务已遍及全球50多个国家和地区.中国石化海外原油产量从2008年的901万吨增长到2009年的1 700万吨.在当前"走出去"的大环境下,为保证我国的能源安全,中国石化也在积极寻求海外油源多元化投资.中国石化海外油源投... 相似文献
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《中国油气》2016,(4)
It is estimated that in the coming years,the rate of consumption of oil products in China will increase at an energy-saving,environmentally-friendly,and slow pace.However,the increasing speed of the demand may vary according to the types of the products:gasoline and kerosene may be needed more while diesel may be needed less.It is also estimated that before 2020,there will be an oil products glut in the country.Export of oil products,especially diesel,will become a new norm or trend.Alternative energy forms,such as natural gas and electricity,will be developed rapidly to attain a goal of replacing 130 million tons of oil in 2030.Even with a more conservative scenario,oil demand in China is estimated to peak at either about 810 million tons or even less at 680 million tons by 2030 if the effect of alternative energy is considered 相似文献
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《中国油气》2016,(2)
Crude oil imports in China are mainly carried out by state-owned entities with non state-owned entities as compliment. Crude imported by 5 state-owned entities accounts for 90% of the total imports, while non state-owned entities are about given more freedom in using and importing crude. In 2015 only, there were 13 companies granted with access to imported crude oil and 6 were qualified to import rights. Currently, there are 29 non-state-owned companies engaging in crude import business. China oil market is faced with severe challenges. The growth rate of oil demand declined, and dependence upon imported oil increased and reached as high as 61.26% in 2015. Refined oil demand growth also slowed down, and oil refining overcapacity got prominent and completion would become fiercer in future. Overcapacity was about 140 million tons per year in 2015. Consumption ratio of diesel to gasoline went on declining, and the task of product structure adjustment was heavy. China oil market is undergoing great transformation, and institutional mechanism will go ahead, on the basis of centering on orderly release of limitations on crude oil and refined oil import and export, orderly release of competitive business and government pricing of oil/gas downstream links, vigorous resolving of overcapacity, strengthening low-carbon development, and laying a solid foundation for guarantee. 相似文献