世界汽柴油标准及供需发展趋势浅析

清洁燃料的发展,尤其是北美、西欧以及日韩等部分亚太地区国家的清洁燃料发展已经非常成熟,无论从标准的制定及实施、技术的开发及应用、国家政策的激励等等方面,都积累了相当的经验,为发展中国家清洁燃料的发展奠定了基础。尽管目前全球汽柴油质量存在差异,但世界汽柴油需求仍处于稳步增长态势,尤其是全球清洁汽柴油需求的比例在逐年提高。主要从全球汽柴油标准、质量以及供需现状等进行调研,分析未来20年世界各地区汽柴油的变化趋势以及需求走向,指出全球汽油、柴油标准虽然因各国汽柴油生产装置结构不同、加工原油种类不同以及受气候等诸多因素影响,各国汽柴油标准中的各种限值有所不同,但是硫含量逐渐降低并趋于无硫化将是大势所趋;指出欧美等国受燃油经济性标准不断提高等多种因素影响,在2030年前的汽油需求将呈现下降,柴油需求将略有增长,而亚太、中东等发展中国家则将处于稳步增长趋势。     

The demand for transport fuels in Turkey

In this paper, we estimate the demand for transport fuels in Turkey. Specifically, using four different models, namely a partial adjustment model, a distributed lag model, an autoregressive distributed lag model, and an error correction model, we estimate gasoline and diesel demand functions with quarterly data covering the period 2003:Q1–2014:Q3. We find a stable long-run relationship only for diesel demand, income and price. Our results imply that gasoline demand does not respond to income and price in the long run, reflecting a shift from gasoline towards diesel induced by differential tax policies. Furthermore, we find that transport fuel demand is price inelastic, making tax on fuel a perfect tool for raising budget revenues. In addition, our results suggest that fuel demand responds to negative and positive price changes symmetrically.     

Gasoline prices,gasoline consumption,and new-vehicle fuel economy: Evidence for a large sample of countries

Countries differ considerably in terms of the price drivers pay for gasoline. This paper uses data for 132 countries for the period 1995–2008 to investigate the implications of these differences for the consumption of gasoline for road transport. To address the potential for simultaneity bias, we use both a country's oil reserves and the international crude oil price as instruments for a country's average gasoline pump price. We obtain estimates of the long-run price elasticity of gasoline demand of between − 0.2 and − 0.5. Using newly available data for a sub-sample of 43 countries, we also find that higher gasoline prices induce consumers to substitute to vehicles that are more fuel-efficient, with an estimated elasticity of + 0.2. Despite the small size of our elasticity estimates, there is considerable scope for low-price countries to achieve gasoline savings and vehicle fuel economy improvements via reducing gasoline subsidies and/or increasing gasoline taxes.     

Mind the gap The vicious circle of measuring automobile fuel use

We review the circularity between estimates of automobile use, fuel consumption and fuel intensity. We find that major gaps exist between estimates of road gasoline, the quantity most often used to represent automobile fuel use in economic studies of transport fuel use, and the actual sales data of gasoline, diesel and other fuels used for automobiles. We note that significant uncertainties exist in values of both the number of automobiles in use and the distance each is driven, which together yield total automobile use. We present our own calculations for total automobile fuel use for a variety of OECD countries. We comment briefly on the impact of these gaps on econometric estimates of the price and income elasticities of automobile fuel use. We show that improper use of the circularity often leads to gross errors in estimating fuel intensity and other indicators of energy use for personal transport.     

Flex-fuel vehicle adoption and dynamics of ethanol prices: lessons from Brazil

Focusing on dynamics of the relative prices of substitute fuels, namely ethanol and gasoline, this study quantifies the impact of the increase in shares of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) in the vehicle fleet on the domestic ethanol prices in Brazil. A modified partial adjustment model is employed. Estimation results provide strong support for our research hypotheses: (i) when consumers can choose between the fuels the relative ethanol and gasoline prices converge to a long-run equilibrium level, which is determined by the fuel economy, and (ii) price dynamics are largely determined by market supply and demand factors including the price of sugar, ethanol exports, and composition of vehicle fleet. Furthermore, the impacts of demand factors such as ethanol exports are strengthened by the increasing proportion of FFVs in the vehicle fleet.     

Modelling fuel demand for different socio-economic groups

The fuel demand literature provides a range of estimates of the long and short-run price and income elasticities of gasoline demand for different countries and states. These estimates can be very useful in predicting the overall impacts of policy approaches designed to reduce fuel consumption and to address concerns of carbon emissions or energy security. However, analysis of policy options based on elasticities that are homogenous across income groups provides no information about the relative distributional burden that may be faced by different sectors of the population. Different responses to the same change in price or income are likely to occur, dependent on both travel needs and income levels. This paper estimates gasoline demand elasticities for different income quintiles in the United States to test for heterogeneity in demand response. Group wise summary consumer expenditure data for 20 years is used to derive the elasticity estimates. The results show that the elasticities do vary across groups and follow a U-pattern from the lowest to the highest income quintile. The lowest income quintile is found to have the largest price elasticity. The lowest and the highest income quintiles appear to be statistically insensitive to any changes in income. The rebound effect also follows the U-pattern, with the highest rebound observed among the wealthiest households. Rural households appear to have lower price elasticity than households in urban areas.     

Evidence of asymmetric behavioral responses to changes in gasoline prices and taxes for different fuel types

Using monthly data from the Spanish gasoline retail market we explore asymmetries in consumers’ behavioral responses to changes in gasoline prices and taxes. In particular, we are interested in investigating whether an increase in gasoline taxes has a more negative impact on the demand than a –similar in magnitude– increase in the “pre-tax” price of gasoline for different fuel types. We estimate fuel consumers’ responses using a rich set of robust panel data models considering potential dynamic effects and endogeneity problems. We find evidence to confirm the existence of asymmetric responses for the demand of unleaded fuels and agricultural diesel fuel. However we cannot support this statement for the regular diesel case: for this fuel both the tax-exclusive price and the tax elasticities are roughly the same. This result agrees with the fact that “diesel drivers” tend to be better informed about changes in both fuel prices and taxes. Some implications in terms of fiscal policy and pollution and climate change policy are also discussed.     

A synfuels era for the United States?

This article surveys the liquid fuels picture for the year 2000 and concludes that transportation fuels will represent the critical domestic energy resource for the future. The United States must develop a synthetic fuels industry if it is to meet its transportation fuel needs while seeking to reduce its dependence on foreign crude oil. Synthetic fuels from coal and oil shale (methanol, gasoline, and diesel fuel) and methanol from biomass are depicted as the emerging options of the future. Within these options, methanol-from-coal is highlighted as providing the most technically versatile, economically viable, and environmentally sound choice. Based largely on transportation needs, the article presents a methanol market demand forecast calling for the consumption of 25 billion gal/y by the year 2000—enough to supply a fleet of 25 million methanol cars and provide for considerable methanol usage in the industrial, utility, and chemical sectors. Thus, about one out of every six cars in the automobile fleet would be operating on methanol if this forecast holds true. A survey of the cost estimates for producing alternative transportation fuels in the future shows, that methanol-from-coal could prove to be least expensive motor fuel: roughly two-thirds of the price of gasoline from crude oil and one-half the price of methanol from biomass. The article also poses some of the challenges facing the synfuels industry if it is going to overcome the entry barriers facing the establishment of a new fuel in the liquid fuels market place.     

The taxation effect on gasoline price asymmetry nexus: Evidence from both sides of the Atlantic

This paper explores the degree of competition in various gasoline markets and infers possible causes of price asymmetry across the globe. For this purpose we use the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square method in order to estimate price asymmetry in twelve European countries and the United States for a sample of weekly observations which spans the period from June 1996 to August 2011. The results indicate the common perception that less competitive gasoline markets exhibit price asymmetry, while highly competitive gasoline markets follow a symmetric price adjustment path. Finally, the inclusion of taxes (VAT and excise tax) into retail gasoline prices, supports the existence of price asymmetry in many European countries.     

How much can CO2 emissions be reduced if fossil fuel subsidies are removed?

This paper analyzes consumers' price elasticities of demand for fossil fuels, and how a reduction of fossil fuel subsidies can lead to important reduction in CO₂ emissions for various groups of countries that have relatively high fossil fuel subsidies and notably on diesel, including countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). These countries continue to maintain significant levels of fuel subsidies, with Iran and Saudi Arabia being the largest contributors to CO₂ emissions. This paper illustrates that fuel price policy reforms by these countries would be an important instrument for both climate and economic policies. We estimate that a reduction in subsidies to both gasoline and diesel by about 20 US$ cents per liter will lead to significant decreases in CO₂ emissions, both in the MENA region and globally. In Iran, for example, the reductions could be up to 90% and 50% of current emissions generated from diesel and gasoline consumption, respectively, and for Saudi Arabia, approximately 70% and 40%, respectively.     

Evaluating a seasonal fuel tax in a mass tourism destination: A case study for the Balearic Islands

This paper estimates the monthly aggregate demand for diesel oil and gasoline in a mass tourism region, characterized for a high level of seasonality. Using time series models, price elasticities are estimated with special emphasis in evaluating differences between seasons in order to assess the consequences of a fuel tax applied exclusively during the high season. Using the case study of the Balearic Islands (Spain) from January-1999 to December-2010 results from a partial adjustment model show a relatively low price-elasticity, evidencing how the internalizing mechanism that could be argued for introducing the tax in order to reduce transport externalities does not work. Additionally no statistical differences have been found between seasons for both fuels invalidating the argument that tourism activity reacts differently to host activity.     

The responsiveness of fuel demand to gasoline price change in passenger transport: a case study of Saudi Arabia

Empirical estimates of fuel demand changes to price variation are based on historical consumption and prices, and can be applied as a single point estimate to a wide range of price movements. However, if fuel prices are set outside the boundaries of historical changes, policymakers may be concerned as to the validity of the empirically assessed price elasticity. We developed a transport model to provide a techno-economic estimate of the long-run price elasticity of fuel demand. It incorporates consumers’ choices as a result of several factors, including fuel substitutes, available transport modes, income, value of time and magnitude of price change. Our findings from the application of this transport model to Saudi Arabia show that policymakers can have confidence that the empirical estimates are broadly valid, even for large changes and if prices move outside historical variations. In general, gasoline demand in Saudi Arabia is price inelastic due to the lack of fuel and modal substitutes. However, our approach suggests that the response may become more pronounced when the magnitude of the change increases. The long-run cross-price elasticity of diesel is not constant. Demand for diesel will increase if gasoline price is raised significantly. The change in jet-fuel use is negligible.     

International experiences of ethanol as transport fuel: Policy implications for India

The need for biofuels, particularly liquid ones like ethanol and biodiesel, for transport has been felt by most of the countries and their governments have been trying to promote these fuels. Compared to petroleum, the use of biofuels for transport is still quite low in nearly every country. By far the largest production and use is of ethanol in the United States and Brazil, where similar volumes are used—many times higher than in any other country. Even then, ethanol represents less than 3% of transport fuel in USA and a little more than 50% of gasoline demand (by volume) in Brazil. However many countries, including the USA, Canada, several European countries (and the European Union), Australia and Japan including India are considering or have adopted a variety of policies that could result in much higher biofuels use over the next decade. This paper makes an attempt to draw upon the cross-country international experiences of ethanol as transport fuel to suggest policy implications for India     

Transportation: meeting the dual challenges of achieving energy security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions

As the population and economy continue to grow globally, demand for energy will continue to grow. The transportation sector relies solely on petroleum for its energy supply. The United States and China are the top two oil-importing countries. A major issue both countries face and are addressing is energy insecurity as a result of the demand for liquid fuels. Improvements in the energy efficiency of vehicles and the substitution of petroleum fuels with alternative fuels can help contain growth in the demand for transportation oil. Although most alternative transportation fuels — when applied to advanced vehicle technologies — can substantially reduce greenhouse emissions, coal-based liquid fuels may increase greenhouse gas emissions by twice as much as gasoline. Such technologies as carbon capture and storage may need to be employed to manage the greenhouse gas emissions of coal-based fuels. At present, there is no ideal transportation fuel option to solve problems related to transportation energy and greenhouse gas emissions. To solve these problems, research and development efforts are needed for a variety of transportation fuel options and advanced vehicle technologies.     

An analysis of gasoline demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico

The majority of evidence on gasoline demand elasticities is derived from models based on national data. Since the largest growth in population is now taking place in cities in the developing world it is important that we understand whether this national evidence is applicable to demand conditions at the local level. The aim of this paper is to estimate and compare gasoline per vehicle demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico. National elasticities with respect to price, income, vehicle stock and metro fares are estimated using both a time series cointegration model and a panel GMM model for Mexican states. Estimates for Mexico City are derived by modifying national estimates according to mode shares as suggested by Graham and Glaister (2006), and by estimating a panel Within Groups model with data aggregated by borough. Although all models agree on the sign of the elasticities the magnitudes differ greatly. Elasticities change over time and differ between the national and local levels, with smaller price responses in Mexico City. In general, price elasticities are smaller than those reported in the gasoline demand surveys, a pattern previously found in developing countries. The fact that income and vehicle stock elasticities increase over time may suggest that vehicles are being used more intensively in recent years and that Mexico City residents are purchasing larger vehicles. Elasticities with respect to metro fares are negligible, which suggests little substitution between modes. Finally, the fact that fuel efficiency elasticities are smaller than vehicle stock elasticities suggests that vehicle stock size, rather than its composition, has a larger impact on gasoline consumption in Mexico City.     

The demand for gasoline: a comment on the cross-section analysis by Drollas

A recent article [1] used data for 1977 from different countries to estimate the long-run price elasticity of demand for gasoline. Some aspects can be criticized, particularly the interpretation of the results and the model used. An alternative is developed which accepts that the key factor influencing gasoline consumption is the stock of cars. However, energy use per car will vary depending on the size of the country and its average income and price of fuel. This model gives a non-linear equation which is estimated using the same data. All the coefficients are significant with the price elasticity being inelastic.     

Analyzing light fuel demand elasticities in Brazil using cointegration techniques

This study is intended to assess the sensitivity of demand for light fuels in Brazil to changes in prices and income, considering the unique characteristics of the Brazilian fleet, the lack of convergence across studies available for the domestic market and its importance in discussions on climate change and national security, among others. For this purpose, the short- and long-term price and income elasticities of light fuel demand were estimated using cointegration techniques, based on an empirical model that incorporates the unique features of the internal market. Despite the characteristics of the Brazilian fleet, the results showed that the elasticities found for the national market are similar to those seen in other countries. The conceptual framework and empirical analysis that were used also allowed for a better understanding of the differences between the results of studies on demand for gasoline, ethanol or natural gas in Brazil and those found in the international literature, providing key players in the sector with crucial information for designing public policies and business strategies.     

Automotive fuel consumption in Brazil: Applying static and dynamic systems of demand equations

This paper aims to investigate and explain the performance of the Brazilian demand for automotive fuels in the period 1970–2005. It estimates the price and income elasticities for all the available fuels in the automotive sector in the country: gasoline, compressed natural gas (CNG), ethanol and diesel. The analysis of the expenditure allocation process among these fuels is carried out through the estimation of a linear approximation of an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model. Two estimation methods were implemented: the static (through a seemingly unrelated regression) and a dynamic (through a vector error correction model). Specification tests support the use of the latter. The empirical analysis suggests a high substitutability between gasoline and ethanol; being this relation higher than the one observed between gasoline and CNG. The study shows that gasoline, ethanol and diesel are normal goods, and with the exception of ethanol, they are expenditure elastic. CNG was estimated as an inferior good.     

Importance of P-Series Fuels for Flexible-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs) and Alternative Fuels

As engine fuels, the most popular alternative fuels are bioetanol, biodiesel, and hydrogen. Recently, in addition to these, there are intensive researches on methyl-, and ethylalcohols, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, P-series, electricity, and solar fuels. Alternative fuels for diesel engines are becoming increasingly important due to diminishing petroleum reserves and the environmental consequences of exhaust gases from petroleum-fueled engines. One of the advantages of P-series is that they are very easy to use. There is no need for any special fuel management because gasoline and P-series can be freely intermixed in any proportion with fuel that is already in the vehicle's fuel tank. So, even if P-series is not available at a particular location, simply fill up with gasoline. These fuels are inexpensive fuels generated by municipal and agricultural wastes. The National Renewal Energy Laboratory (NREL) showed that P-series would be 96% derived from domestic resources and reduce petroleum use by 80% as compared to gasoline. Use of P-series fuels also greatly reduces toxic emissions. P-fuels are economically competitive with gasoline. As of May 2003, the projected retail price for P-series, including all taxes, is $1.49 per gallon, about the same as mid-grade gasoline in a $/mile calculation. There are 3 million cars on the road today that could run on P-series fuels.     

A temporal cross section specification of the demand for gasoline using a random coefficient regression model

This paper uses a random coefficient regression approach to estimate the demand for gasoline by pooling cross-sectional (state level) and time series data. The analysis proceeds by estimating two alternative models, namely a stock adjustment model and a flow adjustment model. The two models are estimated using state level data on gasoline consumption, gasoline price, income and the stock of automobiles. The random coefficient specification of each demand model is estimated assuming heteroskedastic disturbances across states, autocorrelated disturbances over time and variable intercept and slope coefficients across states. The resultant price and income elasticities are compared and inferences concerning the ability of the flow adjustment model to approximate the underlying demand function are made.