基于CAS理论的多Agent建模仿真方法研究进展

基于复杂适应系统CAS理论的多Agent建模仿真是近年来复杂系统领域的一个研究热点.本文在简单介绍CAS理论的基础上对基于CAS理论的多Agent建模仿真方法的主要研究内容和研究现状进行分类和描述,最后对该研究领域存在的主要问题和发展趋势进行了分析和总结.     

应急预案流程的Petri网建模方法研究

为了提高应急信息系统模型的语义基础,提出了一种基于Petri网的应急预案流程的建模方法。以ABC模型为上位本体建立了应急预案流程本体,提出了应急预案流程的Petri网建模过程,并定义了应急预案流程中本体和层次Petri网的映射规则。使用该方法对某公路桥梁抢修应急预案流程进行Petri网建模,并通过仿真分析验证了建模方法的有效性。     

基于灾害仿真的虚拟应急演练系统

基于虚拟现实技术的虚拟应急演练有着广泛的应用,但现有演练系统往往缺少对灾害场景的有效仿真,以及预案支撑下的完整系统框架.针对上述问题,该文首先提出了一种面向应急演练的仿真系统VEDSimu,解决了实体间消息高效传输、大规模仿真模型计算问题;并基于VEDSimu开发预案脚本系统、预案推理机、考核评价以及虚拟现实客户端等其他模块,构建虚拟应急演练系统VEDSys.最后,结合VEDSys在实际企业虚拟消防演练中的应用,验证了系统的可行性、高效性与可扩展性.     

应急预案体系本体模型（EPSOnto）及应用

应急预案是处置突发事件的重要依据,应急预案体系提供应急预案编制及修订指南。目前我国的应急预案体系建设存在描述不一致和异构性等问题。针对上述问题,采用语义网的本体技术,构建了应急预案体系本体模型,该模型以SUMO为上位本体,从预案体系主体、预案体系客体和体系组成等方面构建应急预案体系的概念、关系、函数、公理和实例五元组本体模型,并以天津市应急预案体系为应用实例对EPSOnto模型进行验证。     

基于预案模板的HTN规划知识建模方法及其应用

应急决策是应急管理的基础和核心,H TN( Hierarchy Mask Nct)规划为应急决策提供了一种有效手段,是目前研究的热点问题。针对基于HTN规划求解应急决策问题存在领域知识难于建模的问题,在利用基于PetriNet的工作流模型对应急预案进行建模的基础上,提出了一种将预案模板转化为H`I'N规划领域知识模型的方法。在此基础上,将基于预案模板的应急决策问题建模为应急任务规划问题,利用HTN规划系统SHOP2 (Simple Hierarchical Ordered Planner 2)进行规划求解,实现复杂应急态势条件下通过选择和组织应急计划片段科学制定应对方案,并以某区域洪灾应急响应为例开展了应用研究。     

基于应急预案的煤矿应急救援辅助决策系统设计

针对煤矿应急救援辅助决策系统中应急预案应用不足、应用效率低及系统生成的救援方案可执行性欠佳等问题,提出了一种基于应急预案的煤矿应急救援辅助决策系统设计方法。该方法采用基于大语言模型的信息抽取技术,从应急预案中提炼出关键任务要素,如任务名称、触发条件、执行部门和任务内容等,形成元任务,并构建根据事故类型和级别对元任务进行分类存储的元任务库;发生煤矿安全事故时,运用基于SBERT模型的语义匹配技术,根据现场收集的信息进行事故分类分级,并从元任务库中筛选出与当前应急需求相符合的元任务集;为提高任务的可执行性,将元任务与实时采集的现场数据结合,通过指令模板构建具体的行动指令,并利用任务规划技术对指令的优先级进行优化和调整,生成切实可行的现场救援方案。基于应急预案的煤矿应急救援辅助决策系统充分利用了应急预案的规范化内容,形成了与现场信息紧密结合、资源优化的救援方案,进一步提高了救援决策的准确性、科学性和智能化水平。     

突发事件快速应急救援系统的设计研究

针对当前突发事件应急救援体系存在的救援不及时、预案不完备等问题,本文利用计算机开发工具设计了一款突发事件快速应急救援系统,主体架构由基础层、数据层、应用层组成,系统集情报搜集、分析决策、动态反馈三大主要功能于一体。利用基础情报搜集设施进行大范围的数据采集,通过情报搜集,筛选出有价值的信息,系统自动进行分析决策,预案自动生成模块中内置各类突发事件分类、突发事件危害分级标准,并根据突发事件和应急预案实例建立相关的模版数据库。系统根据突发事件的实时进展进行应急预案的相应更新,完成动态反馈,进而为快速、高效的应急救援工作提供参考方案和决策支持。     

基于本体的民航应急决策知识表达与推理方法研究

针对民航突发事件应急决策知识表达与管理中的问题,利用本体技术在知识获取和建模方面的优势,本文设计了一个基于领域本体的民航突发事件应急决策知识推理模型;以民航突发事件应急预案、应急案例、应急资源和应急规则等应急知识为基础,构建了民航应急管理领域词典,采用领域本体四元组建模方法给出了基于领域词典的本体构建过程;运用SWRL规则语言建立了民航突发事件应急决策所需的基本规则,采用Protégé本体编辑工具和Jena推理机实现了基于本体的规则推理,为民航突发事件应急决策知识的管理与应用提供了良好的方法与技术支持。     

应急响应环境下基于BDI模型的Agent结构研究

基于Agent的应急响应建模仿真具有优越性和现实性,通过分析应急响应体系中Agent主体所应具有的特征——反应性、推理性、互动性和能动性,构建了基于BDI模型的反应+思考+通信的混合型Agent结构,并在NetLogo仿真平台上实现。为今后进一步研究基于Agent的应急管理建模仿真奠定研究基础,同时也为在NetLogo平台下开发基于BDI模型的Agent结构提供范式和标准。     

基于Agent的城市废物计量收费方案仿真研究

提出一种基于Agent的城市废物计量收费仿真模型.由于城市废物计量收费仿真模型属于复杂适应性系统(CAS),传统的建模仿真方法无法完好地刻画城市废物计量收费仿真模型,而基于多Agent的建模仿真方法(ABS)是当前研究复杂适应性系统的最有利工具之一.有必要进行深入研究.在简单介绍复杂适应性系统、基于多Agent的建模方法的研究概况,以及多Agent建模工具--Repast仿真甲台以及它的结构、主要类库与建模步骤后,以城市废物计茸收费仿真模型为研究对象,进行基于多Agent的建模仿真实验,结果表明基于多Agent的建模仿真方法非常合适复杂适应性系统的研究,具有很大的发展空间.     

Only connect: teaching, technology and telesis

Abstract This paper describes an approach to the design of interactive multimedia materials being developed in a European Community project. The developmental process is seen as a dialogue between technologists and teachers. This dialogue is often problematic because of the differences in training, experience and culture between them. Conditions needed for fruitful dialogue are described and the generic model for learning design used in the project is explained.     

European Community policy and the market

Abstract This paper starts with some reflections on the policy considerations and priorities which are shaping European Commission (EC) research programmes. Then it attempts to position the current projects which seek to capitalise on information and communications technologies for learning in relation to these priorities and the apparent realities of the marketplace. It concludes that while there are grounds to be optimistic about the contribution EC programmes can make to the efficiency and standard of education and training, they are still too technology driven.     

一种自适应子融合集成多分类器方法

融合集成方法已经广泛应用在模式识别领域,然而一些基分类器实时性能稳定性较差,导致多分类器融合性能差,针对上述问题本文提出了一种新的基于多分类器的子融合集成分类器系统。该方法考虑在度量层融合层次之上通过对各类基多分类器进行动态选择,票数最多的类别作为融合系统中对特征向量识别的类别,构成一种新的自适应子融合集成分类器方法。实验表明,该方法比传统的分类器以及分类融合方法识别准确率明显更高,具有更好的鲁棒性。     

Avoiding semantic and temporal gaps in developing software intensive systems

Development of software intensive systems (systems) in practice involves a series of self-contained phases for the lifecycle of a system. Semantic and temporal gaps, which occur among phases and among developer disciplines within and across phases, hinder the ongoing development of a system because of the interdependencies among phases and among disciplines. Such gaps are magnified among systems that are developed at different times by different development teams, which may limit reuse of artifacts of systems development and interoperability among the systems. This article discusses such gaps and a systems development process for avoiding them.     

Designing economic np control charts: A programmed simulation approach

This paper presents control charts models and the necessary simulation software for the location of economic values of the control parameters. The simulation program is written in FORTRAN, requires only 10K of main storage, and can run on most mini and micro computers. Two models are presented - one describes the process when it is operating at full capacity and the other when the process is operating under capacity. The models allow the product quality to deteriorate to a further level before an existing out-of-control state is detected, and they can also be used in situations where no prior knowledge exists of the out-of-control causes and the resulting proportion defectives.     

The development of robot art

Going through a few examples of robot artists who are recognized worldwide, we try to analyze the deepest meaning of what is called “robot art” and the related art field definition. We also try to highlight its well-marked borders, such as kinetic sculptures, kinetic art, cyber art, and cyberpunk. A brief excursion into the importance of the context, the message, and its semiotics is also provided, case by case, together with a few hints on the history of this discipline in the light of an artistic perspective. Therefore, the aim of this article is to try to summarize the main characteristics that might classify robot art as a unique and innovative discipline, and to track down some of the principles by which a robotic artifact can or cannot be considered an art piece in terms of social, cultural, and strictly artistic interest. This work was presented in part at the 13th International Symposium on Artificial Life and Robotics, Oita, Japan, January 31–February 2, 2008     

煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计及其仿真实现

为了设计一种具有低成本、低功耗、易操作、功能强且可靠性高的煤矿井下安全分站,针对煤矿安全生产实际,文章提出了采用MCS-51系列单片机为核心、具有CAN总线通信接口的煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计方案;首先给出煤矿井下安全监控分站的整体构架设计,然后着重阐述模拟量输入信号处理系统的设计过程,最后说明单片机最小系统及其键盘、显示、报警、通信等各个组成部分的设计;为验证设计方案的可行性与有效性,使用Proteus软件对设计内容进行仿真验证,设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有瓦斯、温度等模拟量参数超标报警功能和电机开停、风门开闭等开关量指示功能;仿真结果表明:设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有一定的实际应用价值.     

Explanation and prediction: an architecture for default and abductive reasoning

Although there are many arguments that logic is an appropriate tool for artificial intelligence, there has been a perceived problem with the monotonicity of classical logic. This paper elaborates on the idea that reasoning should be viewed as theory formation where logic tells us the consequences of our assumptions. The two activities of predicting what is expected to be true and explaining observations are considered in a simple theory formation framework. Properties of each activity are discussed, along with a number of proposals as to what should be predicted or accepted as reasonable explanations. An architecture is proposed to combine explanation and prediction into one coherent framework. Algorithms used to implement the system as well as examples from a running implementation are given.     

Three Process Perspectives: Organizations, Teams, and People

This paper provides the author's personal views and perspectives on software process improvement. Starting with his first work on technology assessment in IBM over 20 years ago, Watts Humphrey describes the process improvement work he has been directly involved in. This includes the development of the early process assessment methods, the original design of the CMM, and the introduction of the Personal Software Process (PSP)^SM and Team Software Process (TSP){^SM}. In addition to describing the original motivation for this work, the author also reviews many of the problems he and his associates encountered and why they solved them the way they did. He also comments on the outstanding issues and likely directions for future work. Finally, this work has built on the experiences and contributions of many people. Mr. Humphrey only describes work that he was personally involved in and he names many of the key contributors. However, so many people have been involved in this work that a full list of the important participants would be impractical.     

基于复小波噪声方差显著修正的SAR图像去噪

提出了一种基于复小波域统计建模与噪声方差估计显著性修正相结合的合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar,SAR)图像斑点噪声滤波方法。该方法首先通过对数变换将乘性噪声模型转化为加性噪声模型,然后对变换后的图像进行双树复小波变换(Dualtree Complex Wavelet Transform,DCWT),并对复数小波系数的统计分布进行建模。在此先验分布的基础上,通过运用贝叶斯估计方法从含噪系数中恢复原始系数,达到滤除噪声的目的。实验结果表明该方法在去除噪声的同时保留了图像的细节信息,取得了很好的降噪效果。