Sustainable energy in Baltic States

Integration of New Member States to the European Union has created a new situation in the frame of implementation of the Lisbon strategy and EU Sustainable Development. The closure of Ignalina NPP is the biggest challenge to the energy sector development of the Baltic States. The Baltic States have quite limited own energy resources and in the Accession agreement with the EU Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have verified their targets to increase the share of electricity produced from renewable energy sources (RES-E) by the year 2010. A wider use of renewable energy and increase of energy efficiency can make a valuable contribution to meeting the targets of sustainable development. The article presents a detailed overview of the present policies and measures implemented in the Baltic States, aiming to support the use of RES and the increase of energy efficiency. The review of possibilities to use the EU Structural Funds (SF) for the implementation of sustainable energy projects in the Baltic States was performed.The use of regional social–economic–environmental indicators is the main key to integrate sustainable energy development at the program deployment level. The indicators to be used should describe the contribution of energy programs to the sustainable development, medium- and long-term trends and inter-relationship between them and the typical energy indicators (saved toe, improved energy efficiency, percentage of RES). Municipalities may play a considerable role by promoting sustainable energy since local authorities are fulfilling their functions in the energy sector via a number of roles. The Netherlands’ example shows that municipalities may act as facilitators by implementing national environmental policy and increasing energy efficiency in an integral part of these activities. The guidelines for Lithuanian local sustainable energy development using the SF co-financing have been presented.     

Promotion of renewable energy in Baltic States

Baltic States have quite limited own energy resources. In the accession agreement with EU Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have verified their targets to increase the share of electricity produced from renewable energy sources (RES-E) by the year 2010. Lithuania has target to increase RES-E from 3.3 to 7%, Latvia—from 42.4 to 49.3% and Estonia—from 0.2 to 5.1%. Promotion of use of renewable energy sources are among the priorities of energy policy in Baltic States. More wide use of renewable energy can make a valuable contribution to diversification of energy supply and increase of reliability of energy supply and to meeting GHG emission reduction targets. The article presents a detailed overview of the present policies and measures implemented in Baltic States aiming to support the use of renewable energy sources. The article presents a review of the present renewable situation in Baltic States and analyses policies and measures in place aiming to enhance use of renewables. The review of possibilities to use EU structural funds for the implementation of renewable energy projects in Baltic States was performed in the paper.     

Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The ‘Business as Usual’ scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The ‘Best Case’ scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the ‘Best Case’ scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated.     

Estimates of GHG emission reduction potential by country,sector, and cost

In this study, emission reduction potentials in greenhouse gases (GHG) are assessed by country, sector, and cost using a GHG emission reduction assessment model with high resolutions with respect to region and technology and high consistency in terms of assumptions, interrelationships, and solution principles. Model analyses show that large potential reductions can be achieved at low cost in developing countries and power sectors. In addition, cost-efficient emission reductions were evaluated for some international emission reduction targets that have been derived on the basis of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities among developed and developing countries. If (1) emission reduction measures at negative costs and below 50 $/tCO₂ for developed countries, (2) intensity improvement measures for selected sectors at negative costs and below 20 $/tCO₂ for major developing countries, and (3) all emission reduction measures with negative costs for other developing countries in 2020 are adopted, then emission reductions of 8.9, 14.8, and 27.7 GtCO₂ eq./yr compared to the technology-frozen case can be expected in developed countries, major developing countries, and globally, corresponding to a 11% decrease, 40% increase, and 17% increase from 2005 levels, respectively. Large-scale emission reductions can be achieved even if CO₂-intensity targets for major sectors are assumed for major developing countries.     

The impact of the European Union emission trading scheme on the electricity-generation sector

In order to comply with their commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, France and Germany participate in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) which predominantly concerns the electricity-generation sectors. In this paper we ask whether the EU ETS provides the appropriate economic incentives to produce an efficient system in line with the Kyoto commitments. If so, electricity producers in the countries concerned should include the price of carbon in their cost functions. After identifying different sub-periods of the EU ETS during its pilot phase (2005–2007), we model the prices of various electricity contracts in France and Germany and look at the volatility of electricity prices around their fundamentals while evaluating the correlation between electricity prices in the two countries. We find that electricity producers in both countries were constrained to include the carbon price in their cost functions during the first two years of the EU ETS. Over this period, German electricity producers were more constrained than their French counterparts, and the inclusion of the carbon price in the electricity-generation cost function was much more stable in Germany than in France. We also find evidence of fuel switching in electricity generation in Germany after the collapse of the carbon market. Furthermore, the European market for emission allowances has greatly contributed to the partial alignment of the wholesale price of electricity in France to that in Germany.     

Greenhouse gas emission reduction perspectives in the Baltic States in frames of EU energy and climate policy

The goal of this paper is to estimate the perspectives of the Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on meeting the new European Union climate commitments, i.e., to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% to the year 2020 in comparison with 1990. This ambitious target could be reached based on other EU climate and energy package commitments: increase of the share of renewables and improvement of energy efficiency as tools for fulfilling the GHG emissions reduction target.The paper gives an overview on the current situation and future plans of the Baltic States in the field of energy efficiency, consumption of renewables and reduction of GHG emissions.     

Renewable energy sources in European energy supply and interactions with emission trading

This paper presents a model-based approach, which allows to determine the optimised structure and operation of the EU-15 electricity supply under different political and economic framework conditions, with a focus on the integration of renewable energy sources for electricity generation (RES-E) in the EU-15 countries. The approach is designed to take into account the characteristics of power production from both renewable and conventional sources, including the technological and economic characteristics of existing plants as well as those of future capacity expansion options. Beyond that, fuel supply structures are modelled, as well as the international markets for power and CO₂-certificates with their restrictions. Thus, a profound evaluation of the exploitation of mid-term renewable potentials and an assessment of the market penetration of the various renewable power generation technologies under the (normative) premise of a cost-optimised evolution of the power system becomes possible. Results show that a promotion of renewable energies reduces the scarcity of CO₂-emission allowances and thus lowers marginal costs of CO₂ reduction up to 30% in 2030. Despite the higher overall costs, a diversification of the energy resource base by RES-E use is observed, as primarily natural gas and nuclear fuels are replaced.     

Overview of energy consumption and GHG mitigation technologies in the building sector of Japan

This paper outlines the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission trends in the residential and commercial sectors in Japan. The results showed that the increase in residential energy consumption in Japan is mainly caused by the widespread use of heating equipment, hot water supply apparatus, and other household electrical appliances. On the other hand, it was indicated that the increase in commercial energy use is mainly due to the increase of the floor area of buildings, particularly hotels, hospitals, and department stores. The paper also describes political measures to promote energy conservation, including the building energy conservation standard, Comprehensive Assessment System for Building Environmental Efficiency, top runner programs, financial incentives, and the dissemination of the Cool Biz concept. Finally, the projections of CO₂ emissions until 2050 are presented.

An estimation of energy and GHG emission intensity caused by energy consumption in Korea: An energy IO approach

In Korea, 97% of the energy resources are imported. The growth rate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission per capita in the country was the highest in the world during 1990 and 2004. Moreover, 83% of the domestic GHG emissions stemmed from energy use in the year 2004. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop an econometric model for energy intensity and GHG emission intensity in view of the poor energy endowment and environmental situation in Korea.     

Corporate social responsibility for implementation of sustainable energy development in Baltic States

This article analyses the main problems and challenges of corporate social responsibility in energy sector in Baltic States. Development of socially responsible business in energy sector can provide for the implementation of sustainable energy development without state interventions. This voluntary measure implemented by energy enterprises can ensure efficient public–private partnership in achieving sustainable development targets. The analysis of corporate social responsibility development in energy sector of Baltic States is provided and positive impact of corporate social responsibility on sustainable energy development is evaluated.     

Simulating greenhouse gas (GHG) allowance cost and GHG emission reduction in Western Europe

 Due to the growing concern for global warming, the EU25 have implemented the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the first trading period (2005–2007), part of the targeted GHG emission reductions presumably will have to result from a switch from coal fired electricity generation to gas fired electricity generation. It is possible to calculate the allowance cost necessary to switch a certain coal fired plant with a certain gas fired plant in the merit order. The allowance cost obtained is a so called switching point. When comparing historic European Union Allowance (EUA) prices (2005) with the corresponding historic switching points, the EUA prices were found high enough to cause a certain switch in the summer season. This finding leads to the use of switching points in establishing allowance cost profiles for several scenarios. A variable gas price profile is used in the simulation tool E-Simulate to simulate electricity generation and related GHG emissions in an eight zonal model representing Western Europe. Several GHG allowance cost profile scenarios are examined. For each scenario, electricity generation in the considered countries is clarified. The focus however lies on the GHG emission reduction potentials. These potentials are addressed for each scenario.     

Long-term energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions in the Swiss residential sector

The aim of this paper is to explore the possibilities to reach two long-term targets regarding energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of the Swiss residential building stock: a reduction of the final energy consumption by a factor of 3 and of _CO2${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ emissions by a factor of 5 until 2050. A model is constructed to describe the dynamics of the energy-relevant properties of the residential building stock. Appropriate scenarios are discussed in terms of decisions made during construction or renovation of residential buildings which affect heat demand and determine the energy carriers used for heating and hot water generation. We show that both targets could be reached, although ambitious efforts are necessary. The central element of a successful strategy is to reduce the specific heat demand of existing buildings during renovation and to substitute the heating and hot water systems by less carbon intensive ones. Our results suggest that there is more flexibility to reach the emission target than the energy reduction target.     

The impact of household behavioral changes on GHG emission reduction in Lithuania

It is commonly understood that households must change their behavior to reduce problems related increased energy consumption and climate change therefore in the search of cheap GHG emission reduction measures households are an important target group because they are responsible for more than 20% of total energy consumption in developed countries. In addition waste management and responsible consumption of products are the key issues in GHG emission reduction.The aim of the paper is to assess GHG emission reduction potential in households in terms of behavioral changes towards sustainable consumption. The review of literature on analysis of households behavioral changes impact on GHG emission reduction was performed; the daily survey of household agenda and energy use records were performed in Lithuania for two scenarios – baseline and GHG emission reduction scenario including energy saving. GHG emission reduction potential in household was assessed based on daily survey data and energy consumption records by applying carbon calculator based on modified coefficients. Evaluated GHG emission reduction potential in households was compared with GHG emission reduction potentials in other sectors of Lithuania. Based on analysis performed in the paper the tools to promote household behavioral changes towards sustainable consumption were proposed.     

The regional demand for energy by the residential sector in the United States

The residential sector is a substantial consumer of energy in the United States. The heterogeneous composition of the sector complicates modelling the demand for energy. After reflecting the particular nuances introduced by differing thermal characteristics of the various fuels, one finds an income elasticity slightly in excess of unity and a price elasticity of demand of approximately ?0·35. The results are not inconsistent with other studies done for the United States.A translog fuel share model yields some significant and interesting conclusions. Support is lent to the contention that consumers are responding to the relative changes in fuel prices by altering their energy consumption patterns.Finally, the question of stability is addressed. The results are conclusive suggesting that the demand for natural gas, oil and electrical energy have remained cirtually constant over the past three decades.     

The impact of international GHG trading regimes on penetration of new energy technologies and feasibility to implement EU Energy and Climate Package targets

The EU's new energy and environment policy - agreed by government leaders in their Council meeting in March 2007 - established a political agenda to tackle three core energy objectives: sustainability, economic competitiveness and security of supply. A triad of specific policies addresses these challenges: first, the 20/20/20 targets of the EU; then, the Second Strategic Energy Review of the European Commission; and finally, plans to liberalise energy markets. The European Union's ‘20/20/20′ targets for 2020: reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% comparing with 1990 level (to become a 30% reduction if other major global economies join), increase the share of renewables in the final energy consumption to 20% and to achieve 20% improvement in energy efficiency compared to the level in 2020 if existing trends were to continue.The aim of the paper is to analyse the feasibility of EU to implement 20/20/20 targets under the various international GHG trading regimes. GHG trading regimes were addressed by developing 10 energy scenarios until 2020 for EU by applying several energy modelling tools ranging from top down partial equilibrium to detailed technology based bottom up models.     

GHG emission mitigation measures and technologies in the Czech Republic

The paper presents an overview of the main results in two fields: projection of GHG emission from the energy sector in the Czech Republic and assessment of technologies and options for GHG mitigation. The last part presents an overview of measures that were prepared for potential inclusion in the Czech Climate Change Action Plan.     

Communications on energy: Petroleum futures trading

This note attempts to provide a simplified insight into the mechanisms of petroleum futures trading. The exact nature of the ‘social gain’ resulting from futures trading is specified, and particular attention is paid to the importance of speculation for increasing the amount of hedging (ie insurance against price risk) that can be accommodated.     

广东省温室气体减排潜力分析与预测

从《联合国气候变化框架公约》的机制与原理出发,对广东省主要温室气体（GHG）排放部门的现状进行了系统分析,并对广东省未来温室气体的排放进行了预测;提出了利用清洁发展机制（CDM）来开展广东省减排温室气体项目的方向,为广东省开展节能环保型项目提供了参考建议。     

Rents in the European power sector due to carbon trading

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has imposed a price on the allowances for CO₂ emissions of electricity companies. Integrating this allowance price into the price of electricity earns a rent for companies who have received these allowances for free. During Phase I, 2005–2007, rents corresponding to the aggregate value of allocated allowances amounted to roughly € 13 billion per year. However, due to the specific price-setting mechanism in electricity markets true rents were considerably higher. This is due to the fact that companies also that have not received any allowances gain additional infra-marginal rents to the extent that their variable costs are below the new market price after inclusion of the allowance price. Producers with low carbon emissions and low marginal costs thus also benefit substantially from carbon pricing. This paper develops a methodology to determine the specific interaction of the imposition of such a CO₂ constraint and the price-setting mechanism in the electricity sector under the assumption of marginal cost pricing in a liberalized European electricity market. The article thus provides an empirical estimate of the true total rents of power producers during Phase I of the EU-ETS (2005–2007). The EU ETS generated in Phase I additional rents in excess of € 19 billion per year for electricity producers. These transfers are distributed very unevenly between different electricity producers. In a second step, the paper assesses the impact of switching from free allocation to an auctioning of allowances in 2013. We show that such a switch to auctioning will continue to create additional infra-marginal rents for certain producers and will leave the electricity sector as a whole better off than before the introduction of the EU ETS.     

Prospects of gas supply until 2020 in Europe and its relevance for the power sector in the context of emission trading

With the liberalization of energy markets and the introduction of an emission trading system, electricity production by gas combined cycle power plants has significantly increased in the European Union in recent years. Reasons for the significant increase include the short construction time for gas power plants and the favourable investment costs. One further advantage is the relatively low CO₂ emissions of gas power plants. Thus, a key option for reducing emissions is seen in the increased use of gas for power production. Model calculations from various models show that an increase of gas power production is expected. In general, however, the interdependencies of the different markets (gas, electricity and CO₂) as well as the country-specific gas supply options, determined by pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG), are neglected. As the competitiveness of gas power plants mainly depends on the availability of gas and the gas price, a novel model that integrates electricity, gas, and CO₂- emission markets assuming perfect competition will be presented. The objective of this paper is to analyse the long-term relevance of the gas market for the electricity sector in the European Union in the context of CO₂-emission reduction targets.