Sustainable electricity generation fuel mix analysis using an integration of multicriteria decision-making and system dynamic approach

To achieve a national energy access target of 90% urban and 51% rural by 2035, combat climate change, and diversify the energy sector in the country, the Zambian government is planning to integrate other renewable energy resources (RESs) such as wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal into the existing hydro generation–based power system. However, to achieve such targets, it is essential for the government to identify suitable combination of the RESs (electricity generation fuel mix) that can provide the greatest sustainability benefit to the country. In this paper, a multicriteria decision-making framework based on analytic hierarchy process and system dynamics techniques is proposed to evaluate and identify the best electricity generation fuel mix for Zambia. The renewable energy generation technologies considered include wind, solar photovoltaic, biomass, and hydropower. The criteria used are categorized as technical, economic, environmental, social, and political. The proposed approach was applied to rank the electricity generation fuel mix based on nine sustainability aspects: land use, CO₂ emissions, job creation, policy promotion affordability, subsidy cost, air pollution reduction, RES electricity production, RES cumulative capacity, and RES initial capital cost. The results indicate that based on availability of RESs and sustainability aspects, in overall, the best future electricity generation mix option for Zambia is scenario with higher hydropower (40%) penetration, wind (30%), solar (20%), and lower biomass (10%) penetration in the overall electricity generation fuel mix, which is mainly due to environmental issues and availability of primary energy resources. The results further indicate that solar ranks first in most of the scenarios even after the penetration weights of RES are adjusted in the sensitivity analysis. The wind was ranked second in most of the scenarios followed by hydropower and last was biomass. These developed electricity generation fuel mix pathways would enable the country meeting the future electricity generation needs target at minimized environmental and social impacts by 2035. Therefore, this study is essential to assist in policy and decision making including planning at strategic level for sustainable energy diversification.     

Potential of renewable energy in electrical energy production and sustainable energy development of Turkey: Performance and policies

Generating electricity, from renewable energy sources has become a high priority in the energy policy strategies at a national level as well as on a global scale. Although Turkey has many energy resources only coal and hydropower are significant at present, and as demand had risen, it has been necessary to import fuels to meet the total energy demand. The fossil resources, both indigenous and imported, have become expensive and also have undesirably high emissions. Turkey has an extensive shoreline and mountains and is rich in renewable energy potential. The share of renewables on total electricity generation is 35% while that of thermal power is 65% for the year 2010. Turkey is one of those countries that are considered rich and abundant in renewable energy resources.Turkey is facing serious challenges in satisfying its growing energy demand. To fuel a rapidly growing economy, the country’s electricity consumption is increasing by an average of 8–9% every year, and significant investments are needed in generation, transmission and distribution facilities to balance the power system’s supply and demand. With very limited oil and gas reserves, Turkey is increasingly turning to renewable energy sources as a means to improve its energy security and curb dependence on imported gas from Russia and Iran. This paper investigates the potential of renewable energy resources in Turkey at present and the magnitude of their present and future contributions to the national energy consumption. Energy politics are also considered.     

Secure energy supply in 2025: Indonesia's need for an energy policy strategy

Indonesia as an emerging country with one of the fastest growing economies requires sufficient supply with energy for national development. Domestic energy production cannot satisfy the domestic demand, and the deficiency necessitates growing imports. The present energy mix consists of 96% from non-renewable sources, i.e. fossil fuels, less than 4% from renewables. Government Regulation 5/2006 aims at increasing the proportion of renewable sources to 17%. Two scenarios for the energy situation in 2025 have been elaborated and are discussed. An overall energy policy strategy and regulatory framework covering non-renewable and renewable resources are crucial for securing energy demand.     

An assessment of Turkey’s nuclear energy policy in light of South Korea’s nuclear experience

Nuclear energy, which was once considered as the fuel of future and was abandoned after Chernobyl accident, has emerged recently in developed and developing countries as an option to combat climate change, to secure supply and to achieve sustainable development. Turkey, a developing country where most of the electricity is produced from fossil fuels and which has energy security problems, has adopted a new legislation giving financial incentives for nuclear power plant construction, along with a tender in 2008. However, the tender ended in a stalemate after the Council of State’s decision in November 2009. An evaluation of Turkey’s nuclear policy in light of South Korea’s nuclear experience gives us an explanation as to why Turkey failed in the last tender. Basically it was due to lack of a long term nuclear energy policy that comprehends social, economical, technical and political aspects of nuclear energy. Thus, it is argued that Turkey can benefit from nuclear energy if it formulates a comprehensive nuclear energy plan clearly interwoven with its economic development plans, establishes a proper legal framework and has domestic industry participation in nuclear technology development.     

Supply security for domestic fuels at Finnish combined heat and power plants

The focus of the study was on examining the preparations of Finnish CHP plants for a domestic fuel crisis. National supply security has become topical as the use of domestic fuels, especially peat and wood fuels, has increased over the past decade and temporary regional shortages of domestic fuels have occurred. The study utilised a questionnaire targeting the largest domestic fuel users producing district heating and electricity. The response rate was high, reflecting the importance attached to the subject. The most significant challenges in peat fuel and wood fuel supply security were found to be the time-consuming environmental permit processes for peatlands entering energy use, lack of wood fuel terminals, and the currently unpredictable taxation and subsidy policy. General operation conditions should be improved for domestic fuels' use, and continuity of domestic labour and fuel production must be guaranteed.     

近期我国能源供需形势及趋势展望

2007年上半年,在经济强劲增长的拉动下,能源需求以较快的速度增长,但在各种因素的共同作用下能源供需基本平衡。预计下半年能源生产和消费快速增长的势头难以转变,通过努力,供求依然可实现总体平衡,但节能减排、能源安全和气候变化压力巨大。为此,我们建议,继续加强宏观调控政策,抑制不合理的能源需求,使能源供应与环境协调发展;积极推进电力结构调整,利用价格的杠杆作用合理用电和节电;加强对煤炭行业的调控力度,保障其可持续发展;稳步推行天然气价格改革,促进我国天然气健康快速发展;通过进出口税收政策,合理配置和利用国内外能源资源。     

Global measure of electricity security: A composite index approach

Electricity lies at the heart of eliminating poverty and developing the world into a safe, equitable and environmentally sustainable place. While modern society depends on the provision of reliable and affordable electricity supplies, increasing demand for electricity and supply constraints have created a massive challenge to the world's electricity security. Until now, no framework has been built to evaluate electricity security that can be applied globally. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to develop a global index which can measure the electricity security of a country without being restricted to their resource endowment, economic development, geographic area, generation mix, or population density. We identified a series of unique indicators which represent the dimensions of electricity security. Then a composite index was developed by aggregating the indicators and it quantifies the electricity security status of each country allowing us to rank them based on their performance. To test the index we used data for 14 countries over a period of 25 years. The validity of the index is assessed by the results, which order countries in a logical way and also captures past incidents that have affected their respective power sectors. Reasons for weak performances of electricity sectors and the policies to overcome those issues for a sustainable electricity industry were also identified.     

Changes in fuel input of electricity sector in Hong Kong since 1982 and their implications

Since 1982, the electricity sector in Hong Kong, which accounts for more than half of the total energy consumption, has undergone two major changes in terms of the type of fuels used for power generation. In 1982, it switched from oil to coal generation. In 1994, nuclear power was introduced; and in 1996, natural gas was imported for power generation. Given the dominance of electricity in the energy economy, these changes led to drastic modifications in the fuel mix and the geographical sources of energy supply for Hong Kong. This study analyses the rationale behind the above changes in fuel selection, the impact on the fuel mix and the geographical sources of energy supply, the security of energy supply, and the cost of power.     

The role of renewable and sustainable energy in the energy mix of Malaysia: a review

Energy consumption has risen in Malaysia because of developing strategies and increasing rate of population. Depletion of fossil fuel resources, fluctuation in the crude oil prices, and emersion of new environmental problems due to greenhouse gasses effects of fossil fuel combustion have convinced governments to invest in development of power generation based on renewable and sustainable energy (RSE) resources. Recently, power generation from RSE resources has been taken into account in the energy mix of every country to supply the annual electricity demand. In this paper, the scenario of the energy mix of Malaysia and the role of RSE resources in power generation are studied. Major RSE sources, namely biomass and biogas, hydro‐electricity, solar energy, and wind energy, are discussed, focusing more toward the electrical energy demand for electrification. It is found that power generation based on biomass and biogas utilization, solar power generation, and hydropower has enough spaces for more development in Malaysia. Moreover, minihydropower and wind power generation could be effective for rural regions of Malaysia. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A cost-benefit analysis of generating electricity from biomass

A key challenge internationally is the design of future electricity systems which will bring about emissions savings and fuel security at least cost. Peat is used to generate electricity in several EU countries, mainly to take advantage of indigenous resources and increase fuel mix diversity. The Irish government has introduced a target of 30% cofiring of peat and biomass by 2015. This paper assesses the feasibility of achieving this target by calculating the available indigenous biomass resource capable of being cofired; the cost of meeting the target; the benefits in terms of carbon abatement; and finally the present value in economic terms of meeting the target. Results demonstrate that Ireland has only half the necessary resource to meet the 30% target and that the net cost of doing so is greater than the cost of what is currently being paid for peat, in all of the scenarios considered. Thus, it is concluded that while it may be technically possible to meet the target by combining national resources with imported biomass this is never the least cost option, and as a result the targeted focus of Government policy may need to be reconsidered.     

Sustainable energy systems: Role of optimization modeling techniques in power generation and supply—A review

Electricity is conceivably the most multipurpose energy carrier in modern global economy, and therefore primarily linked to human and economic development. Energy sector reform is critical to sustainable energy development and includes reviewing and reforming subsidies, establishing credible regulatory frameworks, developing policy environments through regulatory interventions, and creating market-based approaches. Energy security has recently become an important policy driver and privatization of the electricity sector has secured energy supply and provided cheaper energy services in some countries in the short term, but has led to contrary effects elsewhere due to increasing competition, resulting in deferred investments in plant and infrastructure due to longer-term uncertainties. On the other hand global dependence on fossil fuels has led to the release of over 1100 GtCO₂ into the atmosphere since the mid-19th century. Currently, energy-related GHG emissions, mainly from fossil fuel combustion for heat supply, electricity generation and transport, account for around 70% of total emissions including carbon dioxide, methane and some traces of nitrous oxide. This multitude of aspects play a role in societal debate in comparing electricity generating and supply options, such as cost, GHG emissions, radiological and toxicological exposure, occupational health and safety, employment, domestic energy security, and social impressions. Energy systems engineering provides a methodological scientific framework to arrive at realistic integrated solutions to complex energy problems, by adopting a holistic, systems-based approach, especially at decision making and planning stage. Modeling and optimization found widespread applications in the study of physical and chemical systems, production planning and scheduling systems, location and transportation problems, resource allocation in financial systems, and engineering design. This article reviews the literature on power and supply sector developments and analyzes the role of modeling and optimization in this sector as well as the future prospective of optimization modeling as a tool for sustainable energy systems.     

Investigating the need of nuclear power plants for sustainable energy in Iran

Over the decades, the consumption of all types of energy such as electricity increased rapidly in Iran. Therefore, the government decided to redevelop its nuclear program to meet the rising electricity demand and decrease consumption of fossil fuels. In this paper, the effect of this policy in four major aspects of energy sustainability in the country, including energy price, environmental issues, energy demand and energy security have been verified. To investigate the relative cost of electricity generated in each alternative generator, the simple levelized electricity cost was selected as a method. The results show that electricity cost in fossil fuel power plants presumably will be cheaper than nuclear. Although the usage of nuclear reactor to generate power is capable of decreasing hazardous emissions into the environment, there are many other effective policies and technologies that can be implemented. Energy demand growth in the country is very high; neither nuclear nor fossil fuel cannot currently cope with the growth. So, the only solution is rationalizing energy demand by price amendment and encouraging energy efficiency. The major threats of energy security in Iran are high energy consumption growth and economic dependency on crude oil export. Though nuclear energy including its fuel cycle is Iran's assured right, constructing more nuclear power plants will not resolve the energy sustainability problems. In fact, it may be the catalyst for deterioration since it will divert capital and other finite resources from top priority and economic projects such as energy efficiency, high technology development and energy resources management.     

交通运输业能耗现状及未来走势分析

低碳经济要求交通运输有效、合理地使用能源,优化配置各种交通工具,降低能耗。近年来,我国交通运输业能耗增长率总体上高于全社会能耗增长率,占全社会能耗比重基本维持在7.5%左右。各种运输方式的能耗主要集中在油耗上,2007年交通运输业汽煤柴3种油耗叠加在一起,占全社会油耗比重近70%。交通运输中电能利用效率较高,节电效果好于全社会,电耗占全社会电耗比重从2002年的2.07%降至2007年的1.63%,但占全国交通运输能耗比重仅10%左右,能耗结构不合理现象并未得到改善。2008年国家铁路单位运输工作量综合能耗比上年降低3.1%,2009年我国铁路电气化率达到41.9%,铁路能耗结构出现根本性改善和优化,开始转变为以电耗为主。公路运输油耗总量呈快速增长趋势,百吨公里油耗指标呈稳中略升态势,节能空间和潜能较大。水运(含港口)能耗2004年之前呈上升趋势,之后下降趋势明显,约占交通运输业总能耗的15%。民航每吨公里油耗从2002年的0.364kg降至2007年的0.309kg,航油消耗增长率基本维持在12%上下,有较为明显的减弱趋势。未来10年,我国交通运输能源消耗总量将进一步攀升,虽然能耗结构将得到一定程度优化,电耗比重会迅速增长,但由于公路能耗在交通运输能耗中占有绝对比重,故难以从根本上改善交通运输以油耗为主的结构特点。我国交通运输业应逐步调整到以铁路为主导的各种交通方式协调发展的模式上来,最大限度地降低运输业油耗在整个交通运输行业中的比重,"以电代油"。     

Prospects of nuclear power plants for sustainable energy development in Islamic Republic of Iran

This paper presents the feasible contributive share of electricity generation from each energy resources. This includes the economical feasibilities and all demographic projections involved in forecasting methodology, which explicitly reflect on overall national power demand projection in the Energy prospects of Islamic Republic of Iran till 2033. The Energy demand and reliability are presented with a view to elaborate on significant role and required capacity of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) towards fulfillment of an energy mix policy in the country.     

Optimized Integration of Renewable Energy Technologies Into Jordan's Power Plant Portfolio

Jordan has experienced a significant increase of peak load and annual electricity demand within the last years due to economic development and population growth. The experienced growth rates are expected to continue during the next decades, making large investments in new power plant capacity necessary. Additionally, when gas supply from Egypt was interrupted several times and crude oil world market prices increased simultaneously, recent years have shown painfully that a power supply exclusively based on fossil fuel imports is subject to a very high risk and can have a strong negative impact on the national budget. Electricity-sector authorities are therefore looking for suitable solutions to keep up with the increasing electricity demand, to make Jordan more independent from fossil fuel imports, and to provide electricity at reasonable prices in the future. This paper presents a methodology for the optimized integration of renewable energy (RE) technologies into Jordan's existing power plant portfolio. The core of the methodology is the mixed integer linear optimization program REMix-CEM, developed at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), which optimizes capacity expansion and unit commitment of RE and conventional power generation technologies simultaneously. After describing Jordan's electricity sector and the available RE resources, the developed methodology and the results are presented. The paper shows that by the year 2022, Jordan could generate at least 47% of its electricity demand by a well-balanced mix of concentrating solar power, utility-scale photovoltaics, and onshore wind power. This scenario would maintain the security of electricity supply, absorb present growth rates of power generation costs, and make Jordan significantly more independent of fossil fuel imports.     

An emerging market in fuel cells? Residential combined heat and power in four countries

Global concerns about fossil fuel stocks and security of supply have stimulated governments and industry to explore the development of alternative sources of energy. This has led to the emergence of liberalised markets for energy and the growth of de-centralised generation and distribution systems. Within this context, the use of a sustainable technology, such as fuel cells, as a generator of heat and electricity for the residential market, is a significant market opportunity. Using a set of framework conditions to explain the diffusion of renewable energy technologies, this paper analyses recent developments in four leading industrial countries, and concludes that Japan and Germany are competing to be the lead country for the introduction of this technology. In the process, we highlight the impact of government and the extent to which the development of a fuel cell industry is being driven by incumbent large firms acting independently or in collaboration with a range of other companies across the value chain.     

Expanding electricity capacity in Thailand to meet the twin challenges of supply security and environmental protection

Rapid growth in electricity demand in Thailand is a major challenge for electric utilities trying to ensure adequate supply. Continued reliance on natural gas for power supply makes the supply mix non-diversified and exposes the country to supply risks while a diversification to other fossil fuels imposes additional environmental burdens. To find an acceptable solution to this twin challenge, this paper assesses four scenarios of electricity capacity expansion planning for Thailand for the period between 2011 and 2025 under two different assumptions of fuel prices to reflect the case of international high oil price affecting cost of fuels for power generation in Thailand. It is found that the lowest environmental emissions are obtained from the scenario where power generation is highly dominated by natural gas. In contrast, the least cost electricity generation is achieved from the case if nuclear power plant is added into the Thai power system. Reliance on natural gas for power generation increases the spending on gas purchase as a share of the gross domestic product (GDP)—between 2.38% and 3.61% of (GDP). In addition, fuel import dependence, particularly for natural gas and coal, increases exposing the country to possible price volatility.     

On the wind energy in Turkey

Increase in negative effects of fossil fuels on the environment has forced many countries, including Turkey, to use renewable energy sources. Today, clean, domestic and renewable energy is commonly accepted as the key for future life, not only for Turkey but also for the world. As wind energy is an alternative clean energy source compared to the fossil fuels that pollute the atmosphere, systems that convert wind energy to electricity have developed rapidly. Turkey is an energy importing country, more than half of the energy requirement has been supplied by imports. Turkey's domestic fossil fuel resources are extremely limited. In addition, Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of wind power. In this context, renewable energy resources appear to be one of the most efficient and effective solutions for sustainable energy development and environmental pollution prevention in Turkey. Since wind energy will be used more and more in the future, its current potential, usage, and assessment in Turkey is the focus of the present study. The paper not only presents a review of the potential and utilization of the wind power in Turkey but also provides some guidelines for policy makers.     

Unity for all

It is quite paradoxical that, in spite of the strong energy dimension of the first European Union treaties and of the relevance of energy for the European economy, until very recently it has been difficult to identify a common European energy policy. Several factors make defining a common European energy policy particularly difficult. There is a conflict between economic efficiency, which has led to the creation of common European gas and electricity markets, and national sovereignty, which makes member states reluctant to leave their supply security in others' hands. Another conflict is the one arising because of policies favoring the so-called "national champions." It is difficult to reach a consensus on these highly political issues. Nuclear energy is yet another problem. Until recently, most of the measures adopted at the European level have lacked an integral vision: usually policies have focused on a particular aspect, fuel, or technology, ignoring the rest. The outcome has been an unbalanced, nonharmonized development of different energy aspects that harms effectiveness and perdurability.     

Household energy mix in Uganda

This paper presents evidence that household energy use in Uganda conforms to the energy ladder theory. As household income increases, solid and transitional fuel use evolves in an inverse U manner, while electricity consumption shows a direct relationship with income. Public infrastructure provision, income, and education are the key variables which can be targeted to reduce household dependence on solid-fuels while increasing non-solid fuel use. While education and public infrastructure have varying impacts on rural and urban households' energy mix, these variables generally reduce rudimentary fuel use and increase modern fuel consumption. Timely investment in electricity infrastructure is necessary to cater for burgeoning electricity demand as households become affluent. Strategies for reforestation, dissemination of improved cookstoves, relieving supply side constraints for modern fuels, and staggered payment options to lower the cost of entry for modern fuels can improve Ugandan households' energy security.