Modelling the UK residential energy sector under long-term decarbonisation scenarios: Comparison between energy systems and sectoral modelling approaches

The UK government has set a groundbreaking target of a 60% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by 2050. Scenario and modelling assessment of this stringent target consistently finds that all sectors need to contribute to emissions reductions. The UK residential sector accounts for around 30% of the total final energy use and more than one-quarter of CO₂ emissions. This paper focuses on modelling of the residential sector in a system wide energy–economy models (UK MARKAL) and key UK sectoral housing stock models. The UK residential energy demand and CO₂ emission from the both approaches are compared. In an energy system with 60% economy-wide CO₂ reductions, the residential sector plays a commensurate role. Energy systems analysis finds this reduction is primarily driven by energy systems interactions notably decarbonisation of the power sector combined with increased appliance efficiency. The stock models find alternate decarbonisation pathways based on assumptions related to the future building stock and behavioural changes. The paper concludes with a discussion on the assumptions and drivers of emission reductions in different models of the residential energy sector.     

Modeling technical change in energy system analysis: analyzing the introduction of learning-by-doing in bottom-up energy models

The main objective of this paper is to provide an overview and a critical analysis of the recent literature on incorporating induced technical change in energy systems models. Special emphasis is put on surveying recent studies aimed at integrating learning-by-doing into bottom-up energy systems models through so-called learning curves, and on analyzing the relevance of learning curve analysis for understanding the process of innovation and technology diffusion in the energy sector. The survey indicates that this model work represents a major advance in energy research, and embeds important policy implications, not the least concerning the cost and the timing of environmental policies (including carbon emission constraints). However, bottom-up energy models with endogenous learning are also limited in their characterization of technology diffusion and innovation. While they provide a detailed account of technical options—which is absent in many top-down models—they also lack important aspects of diffusion behavior that are captured in top-down representations. For instance, they often fail in capturing strategic technology diffusion behavior in the energy sector as well as the energy sector's endogenous responses to policy, and they neglect important general equilibrium impacts (such as the opportunity cost of redirecting R&D support to the energy sector). Some suggestions on how innovation and diffusion modeling in bottom-up analysis can be improved are put forward.     

Analysing industrial energy use: a case study of the Swedish forest industry

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate an analytical method that can be used to incorporate development in industrial sub‐sectors in national energy systems modelling analysis. The method is illustrated by a case study of the Swedish forest industry. The case study consists partly of a detailed industrial sub‐sector scenario analysis of the Swedish forest industry and partly of an analysis of the usefulness of incorporating such a detailed treatment of the industry in energy system modelling analyses. The sub‐sector analysis results in calculated energy and material flows for each scenario. The energy systems analysis results in a comparison of modelling results for the Nordic energy system, with and without the more detailed sub‐sector analysis of the Swedish forest industry. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strategic environmental assessment for energy production

Amongst the approaches that have developed to improve environmental protection within the energy sector, strategic environmental assessment (SEA) has received relatively little attention. This is despite its potential to overcome some of the shortcomings associated with project-level assessment by intervening at higher levels of energy system planning. In this article, a review is presented of the extent to which SEA has been adopted and otherwise promoted in strategic energy planning processes in a wide range of countries throughout the world (with an emphasis on European Union nations). In this regard, the growing importance of regulatory compliance is underlined, especially within the EU, with a particular focus upon the application of SEA to grid systems. The case of the Belgian transmission system is described, illustrating a proactive approach to SEA. But the difficulties inherent in introducing SEA to an increasingly fragmented and liberalised sector are also drawn out, leading to suggestions by which these difficulties may be addressed.     

Artificial neural networks for the performance prediction of heat pump hot water heaters

The rapid progression in the use of heat pumps, due to the decrease in the equipment cost, together with the favourable economics of the consumed electrical energy, has been combined with the wide dissemination of air-to-water heat pumps (AWHPs) in the residential sector. The entrance of the respective systems in the commercial sector has made important the modelling of the processes. In this work, the suitability of artificial neural networks (ANN) in the modelling of AWHPs is investigated. The ambient air temperature in the evaporator inlet and the water temperature in the condenser inlet have been selected as the input variables; energy performance indices and quantities characterising the operation of the system have been selected as output variables. The results verify that the, easy-to-implement, trained ANN can represent an effective tool for the prediction of the AWHP performance in various operation conditions and the parametrical investigation of their behaviour.     

The map of energy flow in HVAC systems

Heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are the most energy consuming building services representing approximately half of the final energy use in the building sector and between one tenth and one fifth of the energy consumption in developed countries. Despite their significant energy use, there is a lack of a consistent and homogeneous framework to efficiently guide research and energy policies, mainly due to the complexity and variety of HVAC systems but also to insufficient rigour in their energy analysis. This paper reviews energy related aspects of HVAC systems with the aim of establishing a common ground for the analysis of their energy efficiency. The paper focuses on the map of energy flow to deliver thermal comfort: the HVAC energy chain. Our approach deals first with thermal comfort as the final service delivered to building occupants. Secondly, conditioned spaces are examined as the systems where useful heat (or coolth) is degraded to provide comfort. This is followed by the analysis of HVAC systems as complex energy conversion devices where energy carriers are transformed into useful heat and coolth, and finally, the impact of HVAC energy consumption on energy resources is discussed.     

Institutional influences on business model choice by new ventures in the microgenerated energy industry

Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders.     

Environmental impact assessment of hydrogen-based auxiliary power system onboard

The maritime transportation sector globally depends on fossil resources while this option is both diminishing and causing serious environmental and air pollution issues. Recently, hydrogen energy becomes one of the key alternatives addressing these concerns under the increasing press effect of the international community.The use of hydrogen as an energy source in ships is provided by fuel cell technologies. Although there are many types of fuel cells, Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is the most widely used fuel cell type in the maritime industry. The most important handicap for the use of hydrogen in ships seems to be the production and storage of it. For this reason, fuel cell technology and hydrogen production and storage systems must be developed in order to use hydrogen as the main propulsion system in long-distance transportation in the maritime sector.In this study, Reference Energy System (RES) is established for a chemical tanker ship to determine the current energy flow from various resources to demands. Then the appropriate parameters are assigned and this framework is specified by the respective data. Following this phase; the current situation has been developed as the base scenario and analyzed by using the Low Emission Analysis Programme (LEAP) energy modeling platform. Additionally, two alternative scenarios including the hydrogen-based have been applied against the base scenario to compare the environmental results in the 2017–2050 time period. When the results are evaluated, it is predicted that although it is not sufficient for IMO and EMSA targets, implementation of hydrogen contributes to the carbon emission reduction positively and it will be more beneficial to apply to the main drive system with the technological developments to be made in the near future.     

Modelling energy systems for developing countries

Developing countries’ energy use is rapidly increasing, which affects global climate change and global and regional energy settings. Energy models are helpful for exploring the future of developing and industrialised countries. However, energy systems of developing countries differ from those of industrialised countries, which has consequences for energy modelling. New requirements need to be met by present-day energy models to adequately explore the future of developing countries’ energy systems. This paper aims to assess if the main characteristics of developing countries are adequately incorporated in present-day energy models. We first discuss these main characteristics, focusing particularly on developing Asia, and then present a model comparison of 12 selected energy models to test their suitability for developing countries. We conclude that many models are biased towards industrialised countries, neglecting main characteristics of developing countries, e.g. the informal economy, supply shortages, poor performance of the power sector, structural economic change, electrification, traditional bio-fuels, urban–rural divide. To more adequately address the energy systems of developing countries, energy models have to be adjusted and new models have to be built. We therefore indicate how to improve energy models for increasing their suitability for developing countries and give advice on modelling techniques and data requirements.     

A framework for technology cooperation to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy in Pacific Island Countries

When considering renewable energy, Pacific Island Countries (PICs) focus on energy security and affordability as primary benefits. In Melanesia, access to modern energy services represents a major unfinished agenda. To that end, Pacific Energy Ministers have endorsed the Framework for Action on Energy Security in the Pacific (FAESP) in April 2011. The associated implementation plan (IPESP) was developed, however never formally endorsed. PICs have instead taken a pathway towards national energy transition roadmaps. This paper describes the current status of the energy sector in PICs, the main challenges and the barriers to the deployment of renewable energy and the role of international cooperation in accelerating deployment. In the context of this analysis, technology cooperation is treated as the sum of cooperation on “orgware”, software and hardware. These three dimensions are explored in the context of the Pacific energy sector, looking at how development finance (DF) is currently distributed among them. Looking at the key barriers identified and the areas where DF has been focused to date, this paper proposes a framework for removal of barriers to the deployment of renewable energy in the Pacific through more focused use of DF and technical cooperation. The framework identifies key goals, actors, activities, resources necessary and indicators to monitor progress.     

A review of urban energy system models: Approaches,challenges and opportunities

Energy use in cities has attracted significant research in recent years. However such a broad topic inevitably results in number of alternative interpretations of the problem domain and the modelling tools used in its study. This paper seeks to pull together these strands by proposing a theoretical definition of an urban energy system model and then evaluating the state of current practice. Drawing on a review of 219 papers, five key areas of practice were identified – technology design, building design, urban climate, systems design, and policy assessment – each with distinct and incomplete interpretations of the problem domain. We also highlight a sixth field, land use and transportation modelling, which has direct relevance to the use of energy in cities but has been somewhat overlooked by the literature to date. Despite their diversity, these approaches to urban energy system modelling share four common challenges in understanding model complexity, data quality and uncertainty, model integration, and policy relevance. We then examine the opportunities for improving current practice in urban energy systems modelling, focusing on the potential of sensitivity analysis and cloud computing, data collection and integration techniques, and the use of activity-based modelling as an integrating framework. The results indicate that there is significant potential for urban energy systems modelling to move beyond single disciplinary approaches towards a sophisticated integrated perspective that more fully captures the theoretical intricacy of urban energy systems.     

A risk management approach to the economic and environmental strategic design of ethanol supply chains

A general Mixed Integer Linear Programming modelling framework supporting strategic design and planning decisions for multi-period and multi-echelon ethanol supply chains is developed and implemented. Multiple biomass and technology options involving both first and second generation production are addressed for paving the way towards sustainable and feasible energy infrastructures. The ethanol supply chain is optimised according to a comprehensive mathematical framework where multiple decision criteria are simultaneously considered in an uncertain market scenario. In particular, the economic and environmental performances are both optimised also considering the decision makers' risk mitigation preferences. Carbon cost emissions allowances trading scheme, crop management and technology learning issues are encompassed, too. A demonstrative case study is proposed involving the potential future Italian biomass-based ethanol production. Results show the effectiveness of the modelling framework as a decision making-tool to steer decisions and investments in the long term horizon among different ethanol fuel configurations.     

从经济学角度论节能环保的战略意义

节能环保是一个技术性的概念,更是一个经济学意义上的概念,它不仅具有微观经济属性,而且也具有宏观经济属性。微观经济属性表现在,作为生产经营主体的企业在节能环保投资和决策中首先表现的是经济人的属性,注重投资和回报的比例关系,追求利益最大化;而宏观经济属性则表现在对于整个国家经济生活的影响,涉及一个国家的低碳经济发展战略、能源价格、国家能源安全、经济结构调整以及可持续发展等诸多方面。节能环保的宏观经济属性相对其微观经济属性更具有长远的战略意义。节能环保不仅为经济社会的可持续发展提供动力和坚强后盾,而且其本身也具有重要的经济价值和产业带动效应。在节能环保框架体系中,存在着管理者、实施者和利益相关者三方行为人之间的博弈。经济价值与社会责任的兼顾,使得三方行为人经过相互妥协最终形成一个多方都能接受的共同目标,促成三方合作博弈,以激励政策和制度约束为纽带,结成利益共同体,实现节能环保产业的快速发展。     

Feasibility analysis of stand-alone renewable energy supply options for a large hotel

This paper provides a feasibility analysis of renewable energy supply (RES) for a stand-alone supply large-scale tourist operation (with over 100 beds). The analysis utilises the power load data from a hotel located in a subtropical coastal area of Queensland, Australia. The assessment criteria of the analysis are net present cost, renewable factor and payback time. Due to the limited number of RES case studies in tourist operations and the absence of studies for large resorts, requiring facilities with a higher degree of comfort such as air-conditioning, it is not possible to establish with confidence the viability of RES in this industry. The specific operational characteristics of the tourism accommodation sector, such as 24-h operation, comfort provision and low tolerance for failure necessitates a separate assessment of RES viability for this sector, rather than relying on similar assessments from other commercial sectors. This study uses RES assessment software tools, HOMER (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, US) and HYBRIDS (Solaris Homes, Queensland, Australia), in order to compare diesel generator-only, RES-only and RES/diesel hybrid technologies. HOMER uses hourly load data, whilst HYBRIDS uses average daily energy demand for each month. The modelling results demonstrate that RES, in principle, has the potential to adequately and reliably meet power demand for a stand-alone large-scale tourist accommodation. Optimisation modelling demonstrates that 100% of power demand can be supplied by a RES-only configuration. A hybrid diesel/RES configuration provides the lowest NPC result with a resultant RF of 76%. In comparison to the diesel generator-only configuration, NPC is reduced by 50% and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 65%. The payback time of the hybrid RES scenario is 4.3 years. Results indicate that wind energy conversion systems (WECS), rather than photovoltaics, are the most economically viable RES for large-scale operations. Large-scale WECS (over 1000 kW) are more efficient and economical than multiple small-scale WECS (0.1–100 kW). Both modelling tools produced similar results, with HYBRIDS producing on average slightly higher NPC results than HOMER. The modelling and resulting data from the analysis indicate that RES is technically feasible and economically viable as a replacement for conventional thermal energy supply for large-scale tourist operations dependent on stand-alone power supplies.     

Socio-economic impacts of community wind power projects in Northern Scotland

The production renewable energy is a promising sector for social enterprises located in the remote northern communities of Scotland. Community wind power offers a way to generate resources to be re-invested in local development purposes, such as community businesses, social services and infrastructure and communications. In this study, a regional input–output modelling is applied to the analysis of the socio-economic impacts of 11 wind farms of community-based social enterprises located in the Outer Hebrides, Shetland and Orkney. The results show significant socio-economic benefits of re-investing revenues for social purposes. For instance, strategic re-investments of revenues in local social services generate about tenfold additional employment and income impact compared with the impact of wind power production. Our socio-economic analyses find that community-based social enterprises are one promising solution for place-based regional development in the European northern periphery.     

Renewable energy technologies for the Indian power sector: mitigation potential and operational strategies

The future economic development trajectory for India is likely to result in rapid and accelerated growth in energy demand, with attendant shortages and problems. Due to the predominance of fossil fuels in the generation mix, there are large negative environmental externalities caused by electricity generation. The power sector alone has a 40 percent contribution to the total carbon emissions. In this context, it is imperative to develop and promote alternative energy sources that can lead to sustainability of the energy–environment system. There are opportunities for renewable energy technologies under the new climate change regime as they meet the two basic conditions to be eligible for assistance under UNFCCC mechanisms: they contribute to global sustainability through GHG mitigation; and, they conform to national priorities by leading to the development of local capacities and infrastructure. This increases the importance of electricity generation from renewables. Considerable experience and capabilities exist in the country on renewable electricity technologies. But a number of techno–economic, market-related, and institutional barriers impede technology development and penetration. Although at present the contribution of renewable electricity is small, the capabilities promise the flexibility for responding to emerging economic, socio–environmental and sustainable development needs. This paper discusses the renewable and carbon market linkages and assesses mitigation potential of power sector renewable energy technologies under global environmental intervention scenarios for GHG emissions reduction. An overall energy system framework is used for assessing the future role of renewable energy in the power sector under baseline and different mitigation scenarios over a time frame of 35 years, between 2000 to 2035. The methodology uses an integrated bottom-up modelling framework. Looking into past performance trends and likely future developments, analysis results are compared with officially set targets for renewable energy. The paper also assesses the CDM investment potential for power sector renewables. It outlines specific policy interventions for overcoming the barriers and enhancing deployment of renewables for the future.     

A theoretical analysis of procurement auctions for tertiary control in Germany

As far as energy policy is concerned, the design of the regulatory framework for energy transmission and distribution is a key issue. Consequently, also the embodiment of balancing power markets drives mainly the effectiveness of political implications for the energy sector. Initially, tertiary control in Germany was solely offered by transmission system operators of the respective power control areas and their associated power plant. The recast of the Energy Industry Act of 2005 led in last consequence to a common procurement auction for the supply of tertiary control, which starts on December 1, 2006. Admittedly, the reform has fallen short of expectations so far, first concerning the intensification of market entry of tertiary control providers as well as the desired decline of the price level. Hence, this article examines the effects of the changeover on observable demand charges. In order to identify attributes of the common procurement auction for tertiary control hampering market entry of providers, giving stimuli to collusion and strategic behavior, reducing intensity of competition and encouraging an upswing of prices, we analyze the design under an auction theoretical approach and deduce empirically whether structural components of the auction design have to be touched up again.     

Modelling the transport sector fuel demand for developng economies

This paper concentrates on the transport sector of six developing countries with similar common denominators, namely Turkey, Thailand, Pakistan, Morocco, Tunisia and Malaysia. By using standard econometric techniques, we analyse the evolution of oil demand for road transport in these countries in relation to independent variables such as income, population, price of gasoline and diesel etc. Unlike the treatment in the present literature on the subject, gasoline and diesel consumption are estimated separately due to the high share of diesel in the total transport sector consumption. On the basis of the estimation over the period 1970–1990, on a country by country basis, we forecast the demand for these six countries until 2010. The results of this study indicate that the transport sector will be the driving force for energy and oil demand as part of economic growth in these developing countries. Its share in the future energy market structure is expected to grow. Consequently, the (pricing) policies of oil products in this sector have a crucial role for shaping rational economic and energy strategies within the framework of rising environmental concern.