高密度沿海地区洪涝风险评价与适应性规划策略 ——以深圳湾地区为例

气候变化背景下，高密度沿海城市受 到风暴潮和极端降雨引起的洪涝灾害冲击。文 章基于韧性理论构建城市空间洪涝风险指标 体系，制定该评价框架的实施路径；基于水文 软件Mike21、GIS平台及其空间网络分析插件 sDNA，复合“天鸽”台风风暴潮与极端降雨情 景，整合深圳湾地区的路网和土地利用进行危 险性、暴露度、脆弱性和适应能力等多源数据； 通过GIS栅格计算得到各要素层分析及洪涝风 险评价可视化地图，结果显示，潮、洪、涝突破 刚性标准加剧了危险性，高密度城市环境增大了 危险区域的暴露度，路网和土地利用布局具有 一定脆弱性，需完善应急疏散和避难场所规划以增强适应能力；根据评价地图识别高风险片区，从路网和土地利用等城市空间物质要素出发， 提出应对洪涝灾害的适应性规划策略。     

COMPENSATING FLOOD RETENTION ON PRIVATE LAND IN AUSTRIA: TOWARDS POLYCENTRIC GOVERNANCE IN FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT?

Flood retention, in particular controlled flood retention, plays an increasingly prominent role in the portfolio of flood risk management strategies. Though a highly effective measure to reduce the risk of flooding for vulnerable areas, flood retention is land-intensive and infringes on landowners’ property rights. Implementation efforts are thus often hampered by the lack of availability of land as well as by the growing demands of (agricultural) landowners for compensation of flood retention services. The proliferation of flood retention not only changes riparian land uses but also results in a shift of authority, power, and agency to lower levels of government as well as to non-governmental actors, including the private landowners who provide the land for flooding but also those who benefit from flood retention. By the example of a compensation scheme for the controlled flood retention in Altenmarkt, an alpine municipality in Austria, this paper explores these nascent forms of governance through the lens of polycentricity. Along five core propositions in polycentric theory, the paper evaluates the governance implications of flood retention compensation in Austria and discusses the possibilities and limitations of flood retention for enhancing landscape resilience in riparian areas.     

An integrated GIS-based analysis system for land-use management of lake areas in urban fringe

Lake areas in Chinese urban fringes are under increasing pressure of urbanization. Consequently, the conflict between rapid urban sprawl and the maintenance of water bodies in such areas urgently needs to be addressed. An integrated GIS-based analysis system (IGAS) for supporting land-use management of lake areas in urban fringes was developed in this paper. The IGAS consists of modules of land-use suitability assessment and change/demand analysis, and land evaluation and allocation. Multicriteria analysis and system dynamics techniques are used to assess land-use suitability and forecast potential land-use variation, respectively. Cost approximation and hypothetical development methods are used to evaluate land resource and market values, respectively. A case study implementing the system was performed on the Hanyang Lake area in the urban fringe of Wuhan City, central China, which is under significant urbanization pressure. Five categories of suitability were investigated by analyzing 11 criteria and related GIS data. Two scenarios for potential land-use changes from 2006 to 2020 were predicted, based on a systematic analysis and system dynamics modeling, and a hierarchical land-use structure was designed for the conservation of aquatic ecosystems. The IGAS may help local authorities better understand and address the complex land-use system, and develop improved land-use management strategies that better balance urban expansion and ecological conservation.     

Monitoring a flood event in a densely instrumented catchment, the Upper Eden, Cumbria, UK

Multi‐day rainfall events appear to be an important cause of recent flooding in the UK. Hydrological data from an extensive, nested hydrometric network in the unregulated, predominantly rural Upper Eden catchment in northern England are presented for one such flood event. These highlight antecedent catchment conditions and the propagation of the multi‐day flood event during February 2004. An assessment of flood response is provided over varying scales and land use between the upland Gais Gill catchment (1.1 km²) and the larger Upper Eden catchment (616 km²). Large spatial variations in rainfall totals are identified from a dense raingauge network during the flood event and are principally related to catchment elevation. High cumulative rainfall totals for the 6‐day event, particularly at upland sites appear to be the exceptional feature of the flood event with return periods in the order of 100 years at some upland gauges. Resultant patterns of flood attenuation and translation are quantified in different areas of the catchment, highlighting the flashy response of the headwater catchments and the attenuated downstream response in the lowland environment. The study forms part of the national Catchment Hydrology And Sustainable Management (CHASM) programme.     

Managing a complex river catchment: a case study on the River Almond

The River Almond catchment in the east central belt rates amongst Scotland's most polluted rivers. This paper describes how shifting forms of economic development in the catchment since the 1860s have affected river quality. A legacy of effects from past land uses has combined with the impacts associated with current land uses to present a substantial and complex management challenge. It is argued that there have been, and still are, scientific, legislative and socio-economic constraints on the abilities of managers to respond promptly to changing patterns of impacts on the river system. This response lag has tended to increase the costs of subsequent remediation, and has consequently supported a downward pressure on the quality standards that are considered 'realistic' by river managers. Conversely, advances in science, the expansion of regulatory powers and resources, and an increase in public interest in the environment has helped to clarify the extent of the management problems in the catchment, and allowed major advances in some areas of pollution management. In an attempt to overcome some of the remaining weaknesses of river management, river managers and interest groups have started to form inter-sectoral and multidisciplinary partnerships. The success of these new groupings is highly contingent, not so much on the competence of their scientific advice, but on the priority given to water protection by the land-use decision-makers involved, and the resources they are prepared to commit to funding rehabilitation.     

Introducing a method of human health risk evaluation for planning and soil quality management of heavy metal-polluted soils—An example from Grugliasco (Italy)

European governmental institutions, as well as local communities, have recently become aware of the threats arising from soil pollution for the welfare of the population. Humans contact with soils is more likely in urban than in rural areas, and is strongly dependent on land use. Spatial planning and land management may have important impacts on the potential transfer of pollutants from contaminated soils to humans. In the present study, we propose a land use-based method for the evaluation of human health risks arising from heavy metal-contaminated urban soils, addressing in particular the influence of planning measures and land use changes on such risks. The method accounts for the role of the bioavailability of soil metals as a key factor in health risk assessment. In order to increase method applicability, a step-by-step procedure and a calculation tool were elaborated. The method can be used to identify areas in which the current or planned land use is associated with unacceptable health risks and to optimise the allocation of a certain land use to areas that are well suited and where the risks are minimal. A risk index is calculated for the area, taking the land use into consideration, as the sum of the risks from different exposure pathways and different heavy metals. For those areas where risk is identified as unacceptable, alternative planning or management options should be defined to achieve a maximal risk reduction in a cost-effective way. The method is illustrated using the Italian municipality, Grugliasco.     

Introducing a method of human health risk evaluation for planning and soil quality management of heavy metal-polluted soils—An example from Grugliasco (Italy)

European governmental institutions, as well as local communities, have recently become aware of the threats arising from soil pollution for the welfare of the population. Humans contact with soils is more likely in urban than in rural areas, and is strongly dependent on land use. Spatial planning and land management may have important impacts on the potential transfer of pollutants from contaminated soils to humans. In the present study, we propose a land use-based method for the evaluation of human health risks arising from heavy metal-contaminated urban soils, addressing in particular the influence of planning measures and land use changes on such risks. The method accounts for the role of the bioavailability of soil metals as a key factor in health risk assessment. In order to increase method applicability, a step-by-step procedure and a calculation tool were elaborated. The method can be used to identify areas in which the current or planned land use is associated with unacceptable health risks and to optimise the allocation of a certain land use to areas that are well suited and where the risks are minimal. A risk index is calculated for the area, taking the land use into consideration, as the sum of the risks from different exposure pathways and different heavy metals. For those areas where risk is identified as unacceptable, alternative planning or management options should be defined to achieve a maximal risk reduction in a cost-effective way. The method is illustrated using the Italian municipality, Grugliasco.     

Learning from the extreme River Tyne flood in January 2005

Extreme floods often demonstrate unanticipated characteristics that pose problems for management and response. The floods on the Tyne and Eden in January 2005 provided numerous examples of such unexpected response. This paper describes characteristics of storm rainfall and runoff generation on the River Tyne catchment, flood effects and damage. Unusual aspects of hydrological behaviour are highlighted as a basis for assessing what lessons can be learned for flood risk management. These include problems associated with coincidence of extreme wind speeds and rainfall, the retarding influence of floodplain storage on flood wave travel time in extreme flows, the influence of critical storm duration on the severity of the resulting flood on headwaters and main river, and the variety of mechanisms of flood occurrence. The occurrence of such an extreme flood provides the opportunity to validate and enhance the review process of the Environment Agency's flood zone maps.     

Flood risk assessment and mapping in peri-urban Mediterranean environments using hydrogeomorphology. Application to ephemeral streams in the Valencia region (eastern Spain)

This paper proposes a methodology for mapping flood risk in ephemeral streams, based on assessing flood hazards and global exposure. The method has been applied to the peri-urban area of Valencia, extended over the floodplains of the Barranco del Carraixet and Rambla de Poyo catchments. Hazard was assessed using hydrogeomorphological methods. Global exposure was estimated as a combination between the economic value of land use and human exposure, following a previous study carried out by Camarasa, A.M., López, M.J. and Soriano, J., 2011. Mapping temporally variable exposure to flooding in small Mediterranean basins using land-use indicators, Applied Geography 31 (19), 136-145. Synthesis mapping was elaborated to spatially rank flood risks, in terms of their hazard and exposure components. The method is simple, effective and easily comparable. The results reveal diverse risk configurations for each floodplain, even though both are in the vicinity of Valencia city (metropolitan area). This flood risk mapping method is very useful for land use planning because it enables swift diagnosis of the nature of risks and can supports decision making by risk managers and urban planners.     

An integrated modelling and multicriteria analysis approach to managing nitrate diffuse pollution: 1. Framework and methodology

As trade-off relationships between the agronomy and the environment are common over land uses within a catchment, one of major concerns of catchment management plans is how to balance the trade-offs over land uses at the catchment-scale. In this two-part paper, an integrated modelling and multicriteria analysis (MCA) methodology is presented which can be used to evaluate a set of land use alternatives and to identify an 'ideal' compromise between economic return and environmental pollution. This 'ideal' compromise here is achieved by land use optimisation of which the objective is to minimise the environmental pollution (nitrate leaching rate) and to maximise the economic return (agronomic gross margin), considering both environmental and economic potential across the catchment in a site-specific manner. The suggested methodology can be used to produce a site-specifically optimised land use scenario that is an 'ideal' compromise between nitrate diffuse pollution and agronomy at the catchment-scales. Some issues on the actual application of the methodology are also discussed.     

The management of urban surface water drainage in England and Wales

Partly in response to the UK flooding events of 2007, a number of reports have recently been produced addressing the legislative, administrative, institutional and structural practices that are required to improve urban surface water management and hence reduce future flooding incidents and associated pollution impacts. This paper addresses the principal barriers to progress that have been identified and how these are likely to be overcome. Improved and integrated organisational structures, process and procedures are required and relationships between flood risk management and water quality need to be addressed at regional, area and local levels as well as legislative clarification on surface water discharges. Nontechnical aspects will need to be supported by new modelling approaches for flood risk prediction at both local and catchment scale with effective communication systems and tools being developed and implemented for full and effective stakeholder participation.     

Developments in the management of flood defences and hydraulic infrastructure in the Netherlands

This article highlights recent developments in flood risk management in the Netherlands and presents approaches for reliability analysis and asset management for flood defences and hydraulic infrastructure. The functioning of this infrastructure is of great importance for the country as large parts of it are prone to flooding. Based on a nationwide flood risk assessment, new safety standards for flood defences have been derived in the form of maximal acceptable failure probabilities. A framework for the reliability-based analysis of the performance of hydraulic infrastructure is introduced. Within this context, various challenges are discussed, such as the dynamic nature of loads, resistance and reliability requirements over time. Various case studies are presented to highlight advances and challenges in various application fields. The first case illustrates how structural health monitoring contributes to a better characterisation of the reliability of the defences and how innovative measures can enhance the reliability. The second case discusses how the river system can be managed in the context of the new safety standards. The third case shows how upgrades and reinforcements of hydraulic structures can be evaluated taking into account (uncertain) future developments, such as sea level rise.     

A flood risk assessment to municipal infrastructure due to changing climate part II: case study

Flooding often has devastating consequences. It is important to understand the evolution of these risks as climate changes. Municipal infrastructure is designed using historical data that no longer accurately represents current climate conditions, indicating infrastructure may underperform. The purpose of this study is to apply a new methodology for the assessment of climate change caused flood risk by Bowering et al. (2013) to the City of London, Ontario, Canada. Floodplain maps derived from climate, hydrologic and hydraulic analyses provide direct input into risk assessment procedure. Inundated infrastructure and high risk areas are identified in tables and maps for two climate and two hydraulic scenarios. Results indicate the most critical flood scenario is the 100 year climate change upper bound and high risk is driven by expensive infrastructure located in the floodplains. Results of the study are used as the support for climate change adaptation policy development and emergency management.     

应对海平面上升问题的城市土地利用格局 脆弱性多情景模拟评估及应对策略

全球气候变化引发的海平面上升对沿海区域的环境和社会经济发展造成巨大破坏。以珠三角广州南沙为研究区域,基于传统、自然增长和规划控制3种土地利用格局预设发展情景,采用PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model)模型模拟各情景下的未来土地利用格局。同时,针对近期(2030年)、中期(2050年)和远期(2100年)3种不同海平面上升叠加风暴潮风险下的土地利用格局脆弱性开展多情景定量化评估,并提出应对策略。结果显示：1)3种土地利用格局发展情景中,传统格局情景能够最有效地应对或缓解海平面上升和风暴潮灾害风险,而自然增长情景应对未来海岸灾害的能力最弱;2)从不同土地利用类型的脆弱性程度来看,城镇建设用地的综合脆弱性最高,而村庄建设用地的综合脆弱性最低;3)根据不同发展情景及灾害风险应采用综合防御、适应及撤退等多种应对策略。综合考虑了未来土地利用格局的多种变化情景、灾害风险及应对策略,能够为滨海城市应对未来海岸灾害的适应性规划提供决策参考。     

Land-use aspects of air-quality management

This paper describes relationships between land-use and air quality. Until very recently, strategies directed toward improved air quality relied almost exclusively upon fuel switching and employment of emission control devices. However, air quality can also be influenced through alteration of land-use patterns. Engineers during their education are generally not exposed to land-use and other socio-economic aspects of air-quality management, although federal and state policy maker are increasingly recognizing that exclusive reliance upon emission control devices is not a very satisfactory long range approach. Alteration of land use as it affects the living, working, and transportation patterns must be considered as well.The first two sections of this paper attempt to provide guidelines within which land-use alternatives can be meaningfully evaluated. Air-quality standars and other aspects of air-quality management are described and interpreted within a quantitative cost-benefit framework.The rudiments of urban geography are also provided in order to introduce the readers to the economics and social forces which shape cities. The fundamental purpose is to make technologists aware of the conflict between these forces and plans for arbitrary changes in spatial patterns. Next, energy variables are proposed as a way to meaningfully relate land-use and environmental pollution with society's quest for affluence. The section on meteorology and dispersion models describes and criticizes the modeling tools and simulations currently available for the prediction of pollution dispersion. Finally, an urban simulation is used to integrate the foregoing material. The air-pollution propensities of various land-use alternatives are assessed.Thus a diversity of topics—all with the common thread of relating urban air quality to urban land use—is addressed. Rather than providing ready-made answers, this paper describes useful evaluation tools and provides insight into the complex problems and interactions involved.     

Validating a rapid assessment framework for screening surface water flood risk

This research evaluates performance of a rapid assessment framework for screening surface water flood risk in urban catchments. Recent advances in modelling have developed fast and computationally efficient cellular automata frameworks which demonstrate promising utility for increasing available evidence to support surface water management, however, questions remain regarding trade‐offs between accuracy and speed for practical application. This study evaluates performance of a rapid assessment framework by comparing results with outputs from an industry standard hydrodynamic model using a case study of St Neots in Cambridgeshire, UK. Results from the case study show that the rapid assessment framework is able to identify and prioritise areas of flood risk and outputs flood depths which correlate above 97% with the industry standard approach. In theory, this finding supports a simplified representation of catchments using cellular automata, and in practice presents an opportunity to apply the framework to develop evidence to support detailed modelling.     

合理应用混合用地,适应城市发展需求

土地混合使用是保障城市活力、提高土地利用经济性和规划可实施性的有效手段,控制性详细规划层面欠缺关于混合用地的规范指导导致诸多弊端。《上海市控制性详细规划技术准则》从上海城市管理特征和城市发展需要出发,吸取国内外相关经验,首次明确混合用地在控制性详细规划编制、管理中的地位和作用,梳理了混合用地中用地规模与建筑规模的分配关系,并开创性地给出适用于上海转型发展形势的地类混合配置引导,为混合用地规划提供了规范导引。     

Spatial variations of storm runoff pollution and their correlation with land-use in a rapidly urbanizing catchment in China

The composition of land use for a rapidly urbanizing catchment is usually heterogeneous, and this may result in significant spatial variations of storm runoff pollution and increase the difficulties of water quality management. The Shiyan Reservoir catchment, a typical rapidly urbanizing area in China, is chosen as a study area, and temporary monitoring sites were set at the downstream of its 6 sub-catchments to synchronously measure rainfall, runoff and water quality during 4 storm events in 2007 and 2009. Due to relatively low frequency monitoring, the IHACRES and exponential pollutant wash-off simulation models are used to interpolate the measured data to compensate for data insufficiency. Three indicators, event pollutant loads per unit area (EPL), event mean concentration (EMC) and pollutant loads transported by the first 50% of runoff volume (FF50), were used to describe the runoff pollution for different pollutants in each sub-catchment during the storm events, and the correlations between runoff pollution spatial variations and land-use patterns were tested by Spearman's rank correlation analysis. The results indicated that similar spatial variation trends were found for different pollutants (EPL or EMC) in light storm events, which strongly correlate with the proportion of residential land use; however, they have different trends in heavy storm events, which correlate with not only the residential land use, but also agricultural and bare land use. And some pairs of pollutants (such as COD/BOD, NH₃-N/TN) might have the similar source because they have strong or moderate positive spatial correlation. Moreover, the first flush intensity (FF50) varies with impervious land areas and different interception ratio of initial storm runoff volume should be adopted in different sub-catchments.     

Calibrated methodology for assessing climate change adaptation costs for urban drainage systems

Changes in precipitation patterns associated with climate change may pose significant challenges for storm water management systems across the U.S. In particular, adapting these systems to more intense rainfall events will require significant investment, though no method currently exists for estimating the costs of these investments on a national scale. To support assessment of these costs at the national level, this paper presents a reduced-form approach for estimating changes in normalized flood depth (the volume of node flooding normalized by the area of the catchment) and the associated costs of flood prevention. This reduced form approach is calibrated to results generated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for city-wide or neighborhood-level catchments in seven cities across the U.S. Estimates derived from this approach represent a reasonable approximation of storm water management adaptation costs and exhibit no systematic bias relative to results derived from SWMM.     

Applying the fuzzy set theory for medium and small scale landscape assessment

The goal of a sustainable land use and landscape development can only be reached by re-establishing regulation functions. That is why it is necessary to assess such a function besides others (production, carrier, information) to derive different potentials for various parts of landscape properties and to promote these potentials by introducing relevant measures. A first step in this direction is to assess profoundly how capable landscape units are. Regarding landscape units as areas of assessment they have to be constant for a long time, especially along their boundaries. As land use changes profoundly on a large scale, landscape units have to be separated on a regional scale. Thinking in geographic dimensions it is the chronological level we have to work on. Unfortunately, there are no assessment methods for landscape functions in this dimension. Due to the fact that all traditional assessment procedures are only valid for small areas it is necessary to look for methods that are of value for larger areas too. The use of fuzzy set methods and fuzzy logic seems to be promising. Traditional assessment methods are taken and combined with fuzzy set theory to get results for larger landscape units. Taking the function of ground water protection as an example the method is exemplarily described and applied on landscape units in the agglomeration area of Leipzig–Halle in the central part of Eastern Germany. Finally, a suggestion for the cartographic implementation is given.