Decision-Support System for Domestic Water Demand Forecasting and Management

A decision support system (DFMS) for forecastingdomestic water demand including demand management was developedas part of a highly integrated decision-support system forriver-basin management. The system provides water resourcesplanners with the facilities for estimating future water demandfor domestic use for any demand region and time period, havingregard, to the possibility of introducing demand managementmeasures. The system has the capability of predicting domestic-water demand by various methods according to data availability.It can compute conservation effectiveness due to theimplementation of various demand-management measures,forecasting the number of customers for different consumptionunits (person, household and water connection) and facilitatingthe development of demand-scenarios for evaluating variousoptions. In general, the system comprises of the followingcomponents: (1) geographic information system, (2) databasemanagement system, (3) expert system, (4) multi-decisioncomponent, (5) prediction models, (6) user-interface, (7) hypertext files. The system has been tested and demonstratedusing the data of Swindon demand zone of Thames Water Utility.     

Water Demand Forecasting in Umm Al-Quwain (UAE) Using the IWR-MAIN Specify Forecasting Model

IWR-MAIN software is used in this paper to forecast water demand in the Emirate of Umm Al-Quwain (UAQ), located in the northern part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), for the next twenty 5 years. Two different databases are used. The first one provides average yearly water consumptions since 1980, while the second provides more detailed monthly water consumptions from 2000. The correlation between three different independent variables and water consumption is studied. These variables are population of UAQ, average temperature, and average rainfall. Results show that population is the most significant variable that affects water consumption in Umm Al-Quwain. Several calibration simulations are performed and each simulation is divided into two periods. In the first period the software “Statistical Package for the Social Sciences” (SPSS) is used to determine the correlation coefficients between the independent variables and actual water consumptions. These coefficients are used in IWR-MAIN over the second period to calculate values of water demand which are compared against actual water consumptions. Model calibration indicates that starting the calibration in 1999 in database one and 2006 in database 2 minimizes differences between actual and simulated water demands. Therefore, these simulations were used as the bases for several forecasting scenarios of water demand in Umm Al-Quwain. Results of one of these scenarios show that 50% increase in water demand is expected by the year 2015 and double of the current demand will be needed before 2025. In another forecasting scenario, it was found that by considering the expected increase in the income level, the water demand will increase by 40% in one decade. A new technique of using IWR-MAIN to separate estimates of metered demand, unmetered demand, and unaccounted water (losses) is also presented in this paper. Finally, results of a fourth scenario indicate that water demand in Umm Al-Quwain will be highly affected by the expected high migration rate due to the anticipated new developments in the emirate.     

城市需水预测模型研究

需水量预测是供水决策,水利投资数额的重要参考指数,在水资源规划与管理中起着重要的作用。针对现有需水量预测方法存在局限性等问题,结合经济社会发展状况和水资源的特点,建立了城市需水预测模型。该模型能够较好地体现出社会经济、生态、环境和水资源各个系统之间的复杂关系。     

曹妃甸新区水资源供需预测分析

依据曹妃甸新区国民经济规划资料,对其未来需水量进行了全面预测,并结合水资源配置规划方案,对各水平年的水资源供需进行了预测分析,以期为今后曹妃甸新区合理开发和有效利用水资源提供了科学依据。     

Regional Water Demand Forecasting in Canada

ABSRTACT

This paper highlights the regional variation in total hardness, electrical conductivity, potential salinity and saturation index of groundwater in Nigeria. The total hardness ranges from 25 ppm to 200 ppm increasing from south to north of the country. The electrical conductivity ranges from 10 to 1,000 μUmhos/cm while the potential salinity is generally less than 3, hence a wide range of crops ranging from tolerant to semi tolerant can be grown in Nigeria. The saturation index of Nigerian groundwater ranges from -5 to 4.5.     

Incorporating Future Climatic and Socioeconomic Variables in Water Demand Forecasting: A Case Study in Bangkok

With concerns relating to climate change, and its impacts on water supply, there is an increasing emphasis on water utilities to prepare for the anticipated changes so as to ensure sustainability in supply. Forecasting the water demand, which is done through a variety of techniques using diverse explanatory variables, is the primary requirement for any planning and management measure. However, hitherto, the use of future climatic variables in forecasting the water demand has largely been unexplored. To plug this knowledge gap, this study endeavored to forecast the water demand for the Metropolitan Waterworks Authority (MWA) in Thailand using future climatic and socioeconomic data. Accordingly, downscaled climate data from HadCM3 and extrapolated data of socioeconomic variables was used in the model development, using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The water demand was forecasted at two scales: annual and monthly, up to the year 2030, with good prediction accuracy (AAREs: 4.76 and 4.82 % respectively). Sensitivity analysis of the explanatory variables revealed that climatic variables have very little effect on the annual water demand. However, the monthly demand is significantly affected by climatic variables, and subsequently climate change, confirming the notion that climate change is a major constraint in ensuring water security for the future. Because the monthly water demand is used in designing storage components of the supply system, and planning inter-basin transfers if required, the results of this study provide the MWA with a useful reference for designing the water supply plan for the years ahead.     

改进支持向量机模型在城市需水量预测中的应用

以某城市需水量为研究对象,运用改进的支持向量基模型对该地区1991年到2001年的用水量进行模拟计算,并用该市2002年和2003年的用水量进行模型检验,与GM(1.1)模型所得的结果作比较,分析证明了改进的SVR模型方法能取得更好的结果。     

给水管网微观模型中节点流量在线预测计算方法研究

阐述了研究区域时总用水量数据整理、时总用水量预测、制作用水模式曲线、节点流量预测值计算 ,建立了给水管网微观模型中节点流量在线预测计算方法 ,并在实践中加以验证。     

需水预测方法比较研究

以唐山市丰南区国民经济需水预测为研究背景,对自身趋势外推法、影响因素相关分析法、灰色模型法等需水预测方法进行了比较研究,从而探索各种预测方法的优缺点及适用范围。通过理论分析和实例验证,发现需水预测根据各种预测方法的适用范围和优缺点合理选用,将有利于减少预测工作量和保障预测精度。最后,总结了每种预测方法的数学模型、前提条件、优缺点及预测中的注意事项。     

An Ensemble-Learning-Based Method for Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting

Water Resources Management - Short-term water demand forecasting has always been a hot research topic in the field of water distribution systems, and many researchers have developed a wide variety...     

A Probabilistic Nonlinear Model for Forecasting Daily Water Level in Reservoir

Accurate prediction and monitoring of water level in reservoirs is an important task for the planning, designing, and construction of river-shore structures, and in taking decisions regarding irrigation management and domestic water supply. In this work, a novel probabilistic nonlinear approach based on a hybrid Bayesian network model with exponential residual correction has been proposed for prediction of reservoir water level on daily basis. The proposed approach has been implemented for forecasting daily water levels of Mayurakshi reservoir (Jharkhand, India), using a historic data set of 22 years. A comparative study has also been carried out with linear model (ARIMA) and nonlinear approaches (ANN, standard Bayesian network (BN)) in terms of various performance measures. The proposed approach is comparable with the observed values on every aspect of prediction, and can be applied in case of scarce data, particularly when forcing parameters such as precipitation and other meteorological data are not available.     

多元线性回归分析在北京城市生活需水量预测中的应用

从多元线性回归分析的特点出发 ,探讨北京城市生活需水量的影响因素 ,并对选定的影响因素进行回归分析 ,确定了最终的预测方程 ,应用预测方程对北京市 2 0 10年城市生活需水量进行了预测。     

美国城镇供水系统实行需水量管理节省扩建投资

介绍了美国环境保护局 1996年颁行的《节水规划指南》(以下简称《指南》)。《指南》对申请美国州饮用水周转贷款基金的供水企业 ,提出最低限度节水措施、规划步骤与内容等要求。遵循这一要求的供水系统扩建规划 ,将供水方与需水方实行的需水量管理 (DemandManagement,即节水措施 )加以综合 ,使节水量转换为供水规模的削减 ,达到节省扩建投资的目的。我国水厂扩建设计一般未考虑节水因素 ,或即使考虑 ,也不够系统和规范。因此 ,笔者认为《指南》对推动我国节水工作 ,特别是将广大城镇通过节约用水、计划用水获得的节水量 ,转换为当地供水系统扩建规模的削减和投资的节约 ,具有很大借鉴价值 ,并针对国内具体情况 ,在推行上提出一些建议     

水位计选型在梅州供水系统水情测报技术中的应用

介绍清凉山水利枢纽工程概况，原系统中压力式水位计安装调试中存在的问题，总结WFH-2型全量机械编码水位计的特点，及其在清凉山水库的应用和考核情况。实际应用表明。在水情测报系统中水位计的选型很重要。     

改进BP网络模型在年用水量预测中的应用

考虑城市用水量受众多因素影响,具有系统稳定性和非线性的特点,利用人工神经网络理论建立了改进BP网络预测模型,通过实例证明了该模型是一种行之有效的用水量预测模型。     

都江堰供水区用水发展规模初步分析

在岷江上游只靠紫坪铺水库的调节作用,不能满足都江堰供水区各规划水平年的用水需求,存在用水高峰时段缺水。要满足2030年水平年都江堰供水区的需求,2030年前必须完成关口、清平、狮子坪、毛尔盖和剑科等五座水库的建设,2030年后建设十里铺水库。如若2030年以后不能实施外流域调水工程(“引大济岷”),则都江堰供水区必须把净需水控制在160亿m3以内,否则都江堰供水区将出现缺水。     

广州地区给水管材设计选用回顾及展望

介绍了近几年来广州地区给水管材设计选用的情况 ,阐述了给水管材设计选用原则 ,并指出给水管材的使用趋势。     

Predicting and Forecasting Mine Water Parameters Using a Hybrid Intelligent System

Water Resources Management - Water treatment plants need to stock chemicals and have enough energy as well as human resources to operate reliably. To avoid a process interruption, proper planning...     

辽宁省水资源需水预测及供需分析

对辽宁省各行业的需水进行了全面预测，并结合水利工程计划，对不同水平年的水资源可利用量进行了分析，为合理开发水资源量提供了科学依据。     

北京市水资源供需分析

北京是一个水资源紧缺的特大型城市,随着首都经济和社会的快速发展,水资源供需矛盾越来越突出.根据"北京城市总体规划",从北京市水资源开发利用、需水量预测分析等方面,对北京市的水资源供需平衡情况进行了分析,并提出了解决或缓解北京市水资源供需矛盾的建议.