燃气能源销售中"照付不议"合同若干问题研究

“照付不议”合同在法律上有着自身丰富的法律内涵,作为国际能源销售的通行惯例,如何平衡双方的合同权利义务至关重要。随着时间的发展,“照付不议”合同呈现出灵活性、短期性的特点,强调对市场变化的回应。“照付不议”在实践中存在着双方权利、义务失衡、气价定价模糊、计量标准难以确定等诸多难题,如何对上述问题进行制度完善值得深入研究。     

浅论国际能源贸易中“照付不议”合同的特点与新趋势

照付不议合同是指即使卖方未提供产品或者服务,买方也必须支付一定款项的协议,起源于天然气销售,目前已成为国际和国内大宗能源销售的一种主要合同形式。买方无条件和不可撤销的付款义务是照付不议合同的核心,其特点主要体现在合同中专门规定的照付不议条款,具体讲,具有长期性、有最低价格限制和数量限制、买方付款义务的无条件性和不可撤销性、卖方照供不误与买方照付不议的义务对等、合同条款相对严格、最终用户须提供信用保证等特点。照付不议合同的优点是可确保贷款人的贷款能得到安全偿还、买方无须在资产负债表上载明该项债务、在能源项目开发初期即可比较精确地估算出合同义务范围、贷款人可以接受对借款人无追索权形式的融资。照付不议合同在实践运用中呈现出一些新的发展趋势,如适用范围不断扩大,合同年限呈缩短之势,长中短期合同并用;同时合同方式趋于灵活,互换贸易等液化天然气新型贸易方式得到了发展,可灵活变通照付不议合同的条款,合同双方角色由单一趋向互换或兼而有之。在实际操作中,照付不议合同仍呈现出有利于卖方的特点。     

"照付不议"供气合同期限的探讨

LNH电厂在确定“照付不议”供气合同期限时应考虑主设备年均投资费用，以使机组的年均投资费用最低。     

福建省城镇居民燃气使用现状调查与分析

以福建省能源结构和能耗现状为基础,针对天然气供应的国际惯例和规则——天然气"照付不议"合同的特点,对福建省城镇居民燃气使用现状进行调查。从调查结果分析得出:生活用气呈上升趋势,天然气不仅是绿色环保的能源还具有价格优势,在居民用户中的市场是可靠、稳定的,开拓福建LNG的综合利用市场具有相当大的空间,这也给"照付不议"合同的签订带来信心。     

天然气“照付不议”中的核心风险

迫于环保的压力，我国将调整能源结构，减少煤炭消费，加大天然气的使用，而天然气下游市场的开发尤为重要。天然气用气方应当积极应对作为国际惯例的“照付不议”合同，把握核心风险。     

中国石油与天津市签订陕京二线“照付不议”合同

2004年3月12日下午,中国石油天然气股份公司与天津市燃气集团有限责任公司在北京正式签署了陕京二线“照付不议”《天然气买卖与输送合同》。集团公司党组成员、副总经理、股份公司高级副总裁苏树林与天津市副市长陈质枫及双方有关部门负责同志出席了签字仪式。中国石油天然气与管道分公司副总经理汤亚利、天津市燃气集团有限责任公司总经理金建平代表双方签字。陕京二线预可研报告经国家发改委审查、国务院批准,工程建设即将全面启动,计划在2005年9月建成投产。管道设计输气能力为每年120亿m3,与西气东输工程设计能力相同。管道覆盖了北京…     

LNG：天然气市场全球化推进剂

石油是一个全球性的市场,而天然气则是一个区域为主的市场。此前,由于天然气不易于运输和保存的特质,供需双方必须签订长期严格的合同后大型气田才能投入开发。“照付不议”是国际通用的天然气供应惯例和规则,但随着LNG（液化天然气）市场快速发展,天然气市场全球化的趋势也日趋明显。     

美国天然气市场法规及政策演化的启示

介绍了美国天然气市场培育及发展过程中7个具有标志性意义的法案的内容、出台的背景及其影响，从中得到关于我国西气东输“照付不议”协议签订时间及价格问题的启示，并提出了关于我国天然气市场发展的几点设想。     

《燃气轮机技术》2003年索引

序号目　　　　次第一作者页期·专题论述·　　　　　　　1IGCC联合循环系统全工况特性分析研究林汝谋 112喷动流化床煤气化技术研究的发展钟文琪 913国产重油交直流静电处理线的开发应用姚挺生 15 14性能卓越的刷握密封田　波 2 115HAT循环仿真模型研究综述与展望杨文滨 2 5 16燃气轮机进气的蒸发冷却装置的经济效益论证许教运 2 917IGCC中蒸汽系统流程与参数综合优化研究林汝谋 128燃用天然气的 35 0MW级联合循环的效率优化和机组选型何语平 929“照付不议”供气合同期限的探讨朱军辉 15 210广东地区电站燃气轮机进气冷却潜力的初…     

燃煤电站购电协议（PPA）两部制电价设计规则解析

购电协议(PPA)是电站类项目以项目融资形式筹建的关键协议文本。以印尼电力市场通行的购电协议为例,着重分析其核心条款电价定价的设计机制,阐述两部制电价的计算方法和影响因素,帮助深入理解"照付不议"的定价原则。     

OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy

Hamilton identifies 1973 to 1996 as “the age of OPEC” and 1997 to the present as “a new industrial age.” During 1974–1996 growth in non-OPEC oil production Granger causes growth in OPEC oil production. OPEC oil production decreases significantly with positive shocks to non-OPEC oil production in the earlier period, but does not do so in the “new industrial age”. In the “new industrial age” OPEC oil production rises significantly with an increase in oil prices, unlike during “the age of OPEC” period. OPEC oil production responds significantly to positive innovations in global GDP throughout. Over 1997:Q1–2012:Q4 the negative effect on real oil price of positive shocks to non-OPEC oil production is larger in absolute value than that of positive shocks to OPEC oil production. The cumulative effects of structural shocks to non-OPEC oil production and to real oil price on OPEC oil production are large. The cumulative effects of structural shocks to OPEC production and real oil price on non-OPEC production are small. Results are robust to changes in model specification. An econometric technique to predict growth in OPEC oil production provides support for the results from the SVAR analysis. Results are consistent with important changes in the global oil market.     

The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China

Crude oil price shocks derive from many sources, each of which may bring about different effects on macro-economy variables and require completely different designs in macro-economic policy; thus, distinguishing the sources of oil price fluctuations is crucial when evaluating these effects. This paper establishes an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with two economies: China and the rest of the world. To assess the effects of oil price shocks, the CES production function is extended by adding oil as an input. Based on the model, the effects of four types of oil price fluctuations are evaluated. The four types of oil price shocks are supply shocks driven by political events in OPEC countries, other oil supply shocks, aggregate shocks to the demand for industrial commodities, and demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Simulation results indicate the following: Oil supply shocks driven by political events mainly produce short-term effects on China's output and inflation, while the other three shocks produce relatively long-term effects; in addition, demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market contribute the most to the fluctuations in China's output and inflation.     

An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model

This paper investigates the behavior of the world oil price based on the first-generation target zone model. Using anecdotal data during the period of 1988–1999, we found that OPEC has tried to maintain a weak target zone regime for the oil price. Our econometric tests suggest that the movement of the oil price is not only manipulated by actual and substantial interventions by OPEC but also tempered by market participants’ expectations of interventions. As a consequence, the non-linear model based on the target zone theory has very good forecasting ability when the oil price approaches the upper or lower limit of the band.     

本轮经济危机前后国际石油价格波动的主要原因

本文分析了本轮全球经济危机前后国际石油价格波动的主要原因,指出从需求侧看,美国仍然是决定全球石油市场最主要的国家;从供应侧看,OPEC的限产对油价恢复起着直接的作用;从供需平衡角度看,热钱炒作是油价剧烈波动的根源,太高的油价和太低的油价对全球经济的平稳运行均构成威胁。     

Alternatives to OPEC oil: Investment costs and financing prospects

Alternative forms of energy will have to supply an increasing share of the world market, in view of the restricted supply of OPEC oil. The prospects for the alternatives depend on their investment costs relative to the expected price of OPEC oil, and on oil demand, which will be affected by conservation. A wide variety of projects are going forward for the development of non-OPEC oil, gas, coal and nuclear power, as well as renewable energy resources. Investment costs and the demand for external finance are within the capacity of world financial markets.     

Market conditions and future oil prices

This paper analyses the relationship between price elasticities of oil demand and supply and the real price of oil. With the help of a two-equation model it is shown that under market conditions prevailing during the 1973–1978 period. OPEC countries could have imposed even higher real oil prices if they had acted as a revenue-maximizing cartel. It is also shown that market conditions in the longer term were not supportive of the oil price escalation of 1979–1980.The real price of oil has already receded from its level in 1980 and further downward adjustments may be necessary to restore balance in the market if the world economy does not resume sustained growth and the pace of off-oil substitution does not subside.     

A model of the world oil market with an OPEC cartel

A world oil market model (WOM) with OPEC treated as a Stackelberg cartel has been developed within the framework of the Generalized Equilibrium Modeling System (GEMS) that is available from Decision Focus, Inc. The U.S. sector of the model is represented by a Liquid Fuels Supply model that was presented previously. The WOM model is described and results obtained with the model for the period 1980–2040 are presented. For comparative purposes, results obtained with the model when OPEC is treated as a competitive producer are also presented. By comparing the world oil price as a function of time from the two calculations, the influence that OPEC may have on the oil market by exploiting all of its market power is quantified. The world oil price as obtained with the WOM model is also compared with world oil price projections from a variety of sources.     

World supplies of petroleum in the 1980s

During the 1970s the non-communist world has weathered, without profound economic disturbance, the oil crisis which developed following the formation of OPEC. This was to a large extent due to the fact that, although the market price of crude had sharply increased, its cost in real terms had remained stable.The factors which mitigated the economic consequences of the oil situation during the last decade are not likely to last throughout the 1980s. It is therefore anticipated that the oil dependent countries will be in a much more difficult position in the immediate future.The conventional approach in studying world energy problems is to begin with the assessment of future energy requirements of individual countries on the one hand and of their energy production based on domestic resources on the other. It is then assumed that, hopefully, the difference between the two figures will be covered by imports of crude.This study tackles the problem the other way around, using as a starting point an estimate of what is likely to be exported by the OPEC group in the 1980s.The conclusion arrived at from an analysis of the political and economic forces operating within OPEC is that OPEC will drastically curtail its exports, maybe by as much as 40%. As a result, the non-communist oil-dependent world will face much more acute and difficult energy problems during the 1980s than it did during the 1970s.     

OPEC in the news

This paper introduces a newspaper article count index related to OPEC that rises in response to important OPEC meetings and events connected with OPEC production levels. I use this index to measure how interest in OPEC varies over time and investigate how oil price volatility behaves when the index unexpectedly changes. I find that unexpected increases in the newspaper index are strongly associated with higher levels of oil price volatility, both realized and implied. In some cases, these unexpected movements appear to be driven by an unpredictable OPEC event, such as the Iraq invasion of Kuwait. In other cases, such as the oil price collapses in late 2008 and late 2014, unforeseen developments in the oil market or broader economy seem to generate the unexpected movements in price volatility and interest in OPEC. The newspaper index is highly correlated with Google search volume data on OPEC, an alternative measure of the amount of attention paid to OPEC events.     

Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a “price rule” that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices.