单位GDP能耗的分解模型及其分析

通过研究因素替代法,建立了单位GDP能耗分解模型,然后对中国1994年~2005年单位GDP能耗及其影响因素的历史轨迹和变化特征作了分析。基于以上研究,运用单位GDP能耗分解模型,将1994年~2005年单位GDP能耗分解为三次产业单位增加值能耗影响份额、产业结构影响份额、单位GDP生活能耗影响份额,并对分解结果进行了分析。     

基于结构分解法的昆明市能耗水平研究

通过对2005~2010年昆明市能源消费及国民经济统计指标分析,得出各年单位GDP能耗及能耗水平变动情况,在此基础上利用结构分解法对2005~2010年影响昆明市能耗变动的主要因素进行分析。2005年以来昆明市能耗下降得益于三次产业能源利用效率提高,但第二产业比重的回升阻碍了能耗的进一步下降。"十二五"期间,昆明市亟需优化产业结构、调整能源结构、提升能源利用效率,才能完成单位GDP能耗下降目标。     

基于虚拟能源强度法的地区能源效率分析

影响单位GDP能耗的因素多种多样,其中结构因素是较为重要的影响因素。为客观比较地区能源效率,设法将较为重要的结构因素剔除,引入"虚拟单位GDP能耗"概念,对22个省级地区2010年的能源利用效率进行比较分析。产业层次下的虚拟单位GDP能耗是保持地区各产业部门能源消费量不变,将地区产业结构用全国产业结构替换,参照单位GDP能耗计算方法所得的结果即为地区虚拟单位GDP能耗。分析结果表明,结构因素仍然是影响地区能源利用效率的重要因素,三次产业结构调整仍是节能降耗的重要方向。对于虚拟单位GDP能耗较实际单位GDP能耗降低幅度较大的地区,产业结构调整显得尤为重要,但三次产业结构调整短期内难以实现,且具有较大的不确定性,此类地区短期内可行的节能降耗途径是调整二次产业内部结构,降低高耗能行业比重,并利用科技进步降低产品单耗。对于虚拟单位GDP能耗较实际单位GDP能耗升高的地区,其产业结构较为合理,需通过进一步优化三次产业结构、重点优化产业内部结构、降低产品单耗等方式实现节能降耗。     

基于熵权法的广东省核电节能减排效果综合评价研究

以广东省为例分析发展核电以来节能减排的综合效益,通过1993-2010年广东省统计数据,应用熵权法,从能源消耗强度、污染物排放、污染物治理与利用和经济效益四方面对广东省核电节能减排效果进行综合评价。结果表明,1993-2010年期间,广东省核电节能减排综合效果呈上升趋势;单位GDP煤炭和石油消耗总量、火电生产和CO₂排放总量、单位GDP综合能耗呈下降趋势;单位GDP核电和水电生产总量变化幅度不大,但是核电和水电在电力供应中所占比例较小。     

关于单位GDP能耗指标的再认识

单位GDP能耗指标是我国"十一五"经济社会发展规划提出的约束性指标之一,对推动科学发展发挥了重要作用。本文分析了单位GDP能耗作为约束性指标的特殊意义,并探讨了国内外单位GDP能耗的变化趋势和既有经济活动所达到的单位GDP能耗"极值",为制定"十二五"规划、推动资源节约型社会建设提供参考。     

四川省能源消费碳排放趋势及影响因素研究

基于四川省2000～2009年能源消费资料,对全省二氧化碳排放总量、人均二氧化碳排放量、单位GDP二氧化碳排放量三项碳排放指标进行了测算,并采用Laspeyres完全分解方法对三项碳排放指标进行了因素分解,分析测算了各影响因素对分解目标的贡献值和贡献率.研究结果表明,经济因素对二氧化碳排放总量、人均GDP二氧化碳排放量变化起主导作用,能源强度对单位GDP二氧化碳排放量的变化贡献最大.     

节能目标体系的构建研究

为将节能目标科学合理的分解到各级政府及有关单位,本文通过对单位GDP能耗影响因素的分析、节能目标分解计算方法的研究及应用,提供了构建从宏观到微观、国家-产业-行业-企业节能目标体系的计算方法和分析工具.     

我国近年来节能形势现状与分析

本文研究与分析了2013年～2018年期间我国GDP增长、一次能源消费、单位GDP能耗等情况,分析了这些年来我国GDP能耗下降的原因,指出当前进行的第四次能源革命,已经将节能提高到了"第一能源"的优先位置,我们一定要对节能重新认识,加强其紧迫感与使命感,使节能在经济可持续发展中发挥应有的作用。     

GDP能耗降低指标如何分解?

本文针对近期进行的“十一五”期间单位GDP能耗降低20%的目标分解工作进行探讨,并提出了分解模型及分解计算方法。     

广东省低碳发展的能源消耗与CO2排放分析

作为中国经济大省、人口大省和能源消费大省,广东省先行启动国家低碳省试点工作,率先开展碳交易市场建设试点。能源消费特征和CO2排放情况是低碳发展的基础,从广东省经济发展入手,分析了广东省终端能源消费及构成、单位GDP能耗和单位工业增加值能耗等能源消费特征,估算了广东省2005年至2010年的CO2排放量,并预测了广东省“十二五”期间的能源消费和CO2排放量,为节能减碳和国家低碳试点工作提供基础数据和决策依据。     

Economic growth,energy conservation and emissions reduction: A comparative analysis based on panel data for 8 Asian-Pacific countries

This study was conducted to evaluate the causality between energy consumption, GDP growth and carbon emissions for eight Asia-Pacific countries from 1971 to 2005 using the panel data. The results indicate that there are long-run equilibrium relationships between these variables. Additionally, causality from energy consumption to CO₂ emissions was observed generally, but there were some opposite relationships also. Parameter estimations of the panel data model indicate that there are great differences in the carbon emissions, the efficiencies of energy use, carbon emissions of unit GDP and unit energy consumption between developed and developing countries. The base carbon emissions, per capita energy consumption and efficiency of energy use in developing countries are far lower than in developed countries; however, the CO₂ emissions per unit of energy use is higher. Although developing countries may reduce their CO₂ emission per unit energy use, total energy consumption will rise rapidly with economic development. Thus, developing countries must determine how to undergo economic growth while conserving energy and reducing emissions. To respond to global climate change, it is necessary to develop innovative technology for energy use, transform the energy structure and conduct the clean development mechanism.     

从18个城市看我国人均能耗和单位GDP能耗水平

以“清洁能源行动”18个试点示范城市为案例,探讨我国城市人均能耗和单位GDP能耗水平,分析影响我国城市人均能耗和单位GDP能耗水平的关键因素,主要有城市能源消费总量、人均GDP水平、第二产业比重和农村人口比例等。与世界平均水平相比,我国目前人均能耗和单位GDP能耗还有很大差距,节能降耗和发展新能源技术尤为重要。     

中国能源效率评析

2011年我国按购买力平价计算的单位GDP能耗为日本和欧盟的2.1倍,美国和世界平均值的1.5倍;9个行业19项产品能耗指标加权平均比国际先进水平高21%。2010年,我国物理能源效率为36.1%,比国际先进水平低8个百分点左右。本文对我国能源效率和节能作了评析,提出了政策建议。     

Energy consumption-economic growth relationship and carbon dioxide emissions in China

This paper applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based dynamic OLS to re-investigate the co-movement and relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 30 provinces in mainland China from 1985 to 2007. The empirical results show that there is a positive long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP per capita and energy consumption variables. Furthermore, we investigate two cross-regional groups, namely the east China and west China groups, and get more important results and implications. In the long-term, a 1% increase in real GDP per capita increases the consumption of energy by approximately 0.48–0.50% and accordingly increases the carbon dioxide emissions by about 0.41–0.43% in China. The economic growth in east China is energy-dependent to a great extent, and the income elasticity of energy consumption in east China is over 2 times that of the west China. At present, China is subject to tremendous pressures for mitigating climate change issues. It is possible that the GDP per capita elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions would be controlled in a range from 0.2 to 0.3 by the great effort.     

Energy and value

Energy theories of value are reviewed and a new variant introduced, based on the empirical relationship between price per unit mass and energy requirement per unit mass for a wide range of commodities. The demand pattern of households in the UK and the USA for energy would tend to produce a declining ratio of energy to gross domestic product (GDP). However, the tendency of goods with low energy intensity to be associated with low productivity gains introduces a counteracting effect, and energy/GDP ratios are fairly stable over time. A simple relationship connecting energy intensity, fuel price, and time constant of adjustment is used to forecast (retrospectively) the energy use per dollar of GDP in each of seven countries for the year 1976.     

影响落实节能降耗目标的主要问题分析

从“十一五”规划开局第一年的单位产值能耗情况看,完成节能降耗规划的目标存在很大的难度。为了能够实现预定的节能降耗目标,制定政策和措施,需要认真分析难点的根源所在。     

Is energy consumption per capita broken stationary? New evidence from regional-based panels

For the first time, a new panel unit root testing procedure, developed by [51]Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [2005. Breaking the panels: an application to GDP per capita. Econometrics Journal 8, 159–175], is applied to re-investigate the stationarity of energy consumption per capita for 7 regional panel sets covering the 1971–2002 period. With structural breaks and cross-sectional correlations introduced into the model, it becomes clear that all regional-based panels of energy consumption per capita are stationary. The structural breakpoints identify the likely causes of major changes in energy consumption in the past. The findings underscore the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks to a series and offer several important implications for policy makers and energy economists.     

PCA-逐步回归模型在能耗评估指数中的应用及预测

能耗评估指数的高低是衡量能源消费水平的重要因素,基于SPSS22.0,应用主成分分析法(PCA)研究了影响贵州省能源消费评价的要素,结合贵州省的实际情况和相关数据进行降维提取主成分,得出生活质量指数是影响贵州省能源消费水平最重要的第一内生因素,再依据综合得分Y构建2001-2012逐步多元回归分析能耗评估指数预测模型,用2013-2017年的五组数据验证模型的合理性.结论 研究表明,贵州省的能耗评估指数与地区生产总值、能源工业投资、终端能源消费量呈正相关,而与单位GDP能耗呈负相关,为贵州省能源消费指数评价提供有效参考.