Bombs, hurricanes and more chaos in Iraq

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
The oil market's roller-coaster continued into July with rising prices for US gasoline ahead of the 4th July holiday and a jump in prices for WTI on fears of hurricane damage to US Gulf production. August Nymex gasoline settled at a record $1.8056/gall on the 7th July as figures were released showing US demand at record weekly levels. On the same date, a series of fatal terrorist bomb attacks in London propelled IPE Brent to its highest-ever level of $60.70/bbl whilst, in Asia, Dubai traded at an all-time high of $55.80/bbl. The market's strength rapidly proved to be evanescent. Within hours of the London bombings, Brent had given up $5.00/bbl. Crude oil and gasoline prices eased in subsequent days and middle distillate lost some of its recent strength relative to gasoline as US stock figures showed a steady improvement in inventory levels. Volatility returned towards the end of the month on worries about gasoline shortages in both the US and Europe and more price records fell on 1st August on news of the death of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia. WTI gained $1.00 on the day, settling at a record $61.57/bbl on Nymex, having been even higher during the day's trading, at $62.30/bbl. On the IPE in London, Brent rose to its highest-ever intra-day level of $60.98/bbl, before settling slightly lower. Some product prices also went into previously uncharted territory: notably jet fuel in North West Europe, which went above $600/t.     

Markets panic, crude goes above $80, more trouble in Nigeria

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
The capture of two Israeli soldiers by Iranian-backed Hizbollah guerrillas operating out of Lebanon flared-up into a full-scale military confrontation, with Israeli attacks on Lebanon's energy infrastructure ( see 'Looking Ahead'). Oil traders, fearing a wider Middle Eastern conflagration, bid-up the price of crude oil to new record levels. Prompt WTI futures hit $78.40/bbl on 14th July and three days later, prompt IPE Brent went to a record $78.18/bbl. The outer months rose even higher, with March, April and May WTI all above $80/bbl. Iran tried to dampen the markets by saying it would not use the oil weapon in support of its Hizbollah allies, and prices eventually eased. The seaborne trade in oil in the Eastern Mediterranean was disrupted by the closure of ports in Israel and Lebanon and a rise in insurance premiums for voyages to ports nearby. Outside the Levant, markets remained well-supplied with oil.     

Hurricane in US, chaos in Iraq and even more price records

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
A hurricane named Katrina devastated oil installations along the US Gulf Coast as well as the city of New Orleans, sending oil prices to new record levels. Nearly 1.4 mn bpd of offshore oil production was shut-in, along with 8.3 bn cfd of the Gulf's natural gas. More production was closed down onshore along with nearly 2.4 mn bpd of refining capacity. Crude and product prices shot up worldwide. The 30th August saw October WTI close at a record $69.81/bbl, having traded earlier in the day up to $70.85/bbl. On 31st August, Nymex gasoline closed at a new high of $2.6145/gall as the Gulf Coast's refineries remained off-line. Gulf spot prices rose above $3/gall. The following day, October heating oil set a new record by closing at $2.1985/gall. Records fell outside the US, with Tapis at $70.97 on 31st August. The previous day saw IPE October Brent settle at a record $67.57, whilst the November and December contracts both saw trades above $69.00/bbl. Natural gas prices also moved into record territory in the US, topping $12 per mn BTU on Nymex during the morning of 30th August.     

Still more records, Iraqi violence and Caspian exports

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices set further records at the start of May before falling back. December WTI hit an all-time high of $78.00/bbl on Nymex on 3rd May. IPE November Brent went up to a record $76.45/bbl. Both contracts eventually settled lower and prices in general weakened before staging a minor rally at the end of the month. Other price records were broken early in the month. In Asia, the Indonesian marker grade, Minas, was recorded at $74.04/bbl on 2nd May, whilst Malaysia's Tapis went above $76.70/bbl. Strong Asian demand also boosted the prices of West African crudes. The markets appeared to be reacting to growing tensions in Iraq, Iran and Nigeria. These considerations returned to haunt the markets later in the month. All crude oil loadings at Iraq's Persian Gulf marine terminal were suspended following a fire, though the main Gulf terminal at Basrah continued to operate. The Ceyhan terminal remained out of action. Tensions between the US and Iran over the latter's nuclear programme gave rise to fears of an embargo on Iranian oil exports. Several foreign oil workers were kidnapped following an armed attack on oil installations in Nigeria. OPEC ministers kept their production ceiling unchanged at 28 mn bpd at a meeting in Caracas.     

More price records, Iraqi tensions and oil companies in court

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices ended October at record levels. Spot month Brent futures hit $91.18/bbl before settling at a record $90.63/bbl on 31st October. WTI went as high as $95.28/bbl before settling-again at a record-of $94.53/bbl. Traders were worried about political tensions in the Middle East and US markets were spooked by a fall in crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex crude. Product prices rose sharply, boosted by a fire at the Coryton refinery in England. Gasoline barges rose above $800/t in North West Europe. Across the world in Asia, jet fuel went above $100/bbl for the first time in Singapore, just as the first Airbus 380 airliner completed its maiden flight from Singapore to Sydney.     

More price records, OPEC produces more and Iraq exports less

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices surged to new highs as Norwegian oil workers threatened to strike. WTI futures settled at a record $60.54/bbl on 27th June while, on the same day, heating oil broke through all previous records on Nymex to reach $1.6761/gall. August IPE Brent remained just below the $60 mark, but the October and November contracts both closed above $60/bbl for the first time, with November the higher of the two at $60.58/bbl. These new price levels proved unsustainable as many traders cashed-in their profits to close-out the second quarter. The record prices appeared not to indicate any actual shortage of crude oil. US imports touched 10.97 mn bpd in the week-ending 24th June: the second-highest on record. As if accepting this as proof that it was producing sufficient crude oil, OPEC shelved plans to discuss a possible 0.5 mn bpd increase in quotas to 28.5 mn bpd. The cartel had earlier decided that it would raise its output ceiling from 27.5 mn bpd to 28.0 mn bpd with effect from 1st July, at its meeting in Vienna on 15th June.     

Nymex entertains; Iraq, Nigeria, Kenya and Gaza disappoint

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
After a series of false starts when WTI traded above $100/bbl but failed to remain there ( see 'The Month in Brief', February 2007 ), front-month WTI futures settled above $100 for the first time ever, on 19th February, at a price of $100.01/bbl. The new record was prompted by a continuing fall in the value of the US dollar and rising tensions in Nigeria ( see below). Other records followed. The following day, prompt WTI futures reached $101.32 in day-trading before easing by the close.     

Record prices

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Crude oil prices climbed to new record levels on fears of a future loss of supplies from Iran as Washington stepped up its efforts to persuade Tehran to abandon its programme to produce nuclear fuel. IPE's December Brent contract set a new record for the exchange by trading at $75.80/bbl on 21st April. On the same day October WTI reached an all-time high of $77.30/bbl on Nymex. US product prices gained as refiners struggled to produce sufficient middle distillate. Alarmed by the rising retail price of gasoline, the US Senate debated a reduction in the already low US tax rate on motor spirit. The House of Representatives passed a measure to prohibit overcharging for petrol, diesel and heating oil, but Democrats rejected a Republican proposal to speed-up the process for approving new refineries. President George W Bush announced a temporary easing of new gasoline and diesel specifications ( see 'Focus', March 2006 ) to allow more fuel to be produced. He also agreed to delay the repayment of some 2.1 mn bbl of crude oil lent to companies after last year's hurricanes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. California announced an inquiry into alleged overcharging for fuel by oil companies operating in the state.     

More price records, more Nigerian troubles and privatization woes

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Crude oil prices rose steadily during July, establishing new records in some instances. Dated BFOE went above $78.90/bbl for the first time, whilst on 1st August, September WTI futures hit a record $78.77/bbl after US crude oil inventories recorded a sharp drop. North Sea markets were affected by the shut-down of a gas pipeline which threatened production of more than 100,000 bpd of NGL. OPEC declined to come to the market's rescue by producing more oil, claiming that the high price levels were caused by geopolitical factors and shortages of refined products rather than insufficient supplies of crude. Demand for oil was boosted in Asia by the shut-down of Japan's largest nuclear power station.     

Prices high, tensions ease and a new OPEC is formed

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Crude oil prices rose on news that BP was to shut-in its 400,000 bpd Prudhoe Bay field, following the discovery of corrosion in a pipeline serving the field. Dated BFO went to a record high of $78.72/bbl on 8th August. Speculation that refiners on the US West Coast would seek to replace the lost Alaska North Slope crude with supplies from the Asia/Pacific region caused prices to rise there as well. US crude prices were rather less affected than elsewhere by events in Alaska as it rapidly became clear that stock levels were sufficient to deal with any loss of production. It also emerged that BP was able to keep about half of Prudhoe Bay in production. By that time, however, oil markets had latched on to an entirely different source of worry. The announcement in London that police had uncovered a plot to blow-up aeroplanes crossing the Atlantic led to concerns of a sharp fall in passenger travel. Traders were not simply worried about the effect of this on the demand for jet fuel, but expressed concerns of a more general loss of business confidence across the world. Fears over a fall in jet fuel consumption did not appear to have spread to Singapore, where jet kerosine traded at an all-time high of $91.75/bbl early in August.     

More price records, Iraq's exports rise and the US probes mogas prices

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
More oil price records were set as refiners worried about supply and inventory levels and other buyers took advantage of a falling US dollar to stock-up on oil and other commodities. October WTI briefly touched $84.10/bbl on 20th September. The US benchmark gained more than most crudes on fears of disruption to oil production in the US Gulf with the arrival of Hurricane Humberto. Some 1.3 mn bpd of production was temporarily shut-in as a precaution, though in the end there was no damage to offshore installations. North Sea crudes rose sharply the following week, pushing IPE Brent into record territory on 28th September, when the London benchmark rose above $81.00/bbl . The new records came despite a decision by OPEC on 11th September to increase its output by 500,000 bpd between August and November. The November target is 27.25 mn bpd, compared with February 2007's level of 25.80bpd. Iraq and Angola are outside the quota system, though Angola is set to join it in the near future.     

Gasoline records, Nigerian troubles and security problems

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Gasoline reached record prices in the US as inventories fell and demand rose. Average retail prices hit $3.11/gal in mid-month before falling slightly. Supplies were squeezed by a series of unexpected refinery shutdowns and problems were reported meeting new fuel specification ( see 'Focus', March 2006 ). Partly in response to the lower than expected refinery runs, the price differential of WTI fell to a record $6.30/bbl below BFO. The US remained generally oversupplied with crude oil despite the temporary loss of 100,000 bpd of Alaska North Slope (ANS) production in yet another disruption to BP's operations there ( see 'The Month in Brief', November 2006 ). President George W Bush meanwhile declared that federal government departments must investigate further ways of improving US energy efficiency.     

More price records, more unrest and more refineries

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices continued to set new records despite a decision by OPEC to raise production by 0.5 mn bpd to 27.5 mn bpd from 16th March. On 1st April, WTI futures in New York set a new closing high of $57.27 a barrel, having traded earlier in the day at $57.70. IPE Brent remained just below its previous record, touching $56.15. Crude oil's strength pushed the official prices of some Asian crudes to record levels, including Malaysia's benchmark Tapis grade, which was set at $58.89 a barrel. Product prices rose to new highs as well. In New York, May heating oil reached $1.6638/gall and May gasoline settled at $1.7310 on 1st April, while, in Europe, gasoline rose to an all-time high of $558/t. The market's view on OPEC's decision was that the rise in output was too little, too late. Even a statement by the cartel's President, Shaikh Ahmad Fahd Al Sabah, that OPEC would consider a further rise of 0.5 mn bpd for May did nothing to calm fears.     

不同原油价格下重油加工工艺路线的选择

在35～100 美元/bbl(1 bbl≈159 L)的国际油价下,针对阿曼原油、沙中原油、伊重原油、塔河原油的不同重油加工工艺路线(如浆态床渣油加氢、沸腾床渣油加氢、固定床渣油加氢、渣油焦化、溶剂脱沥青组合等)进行了经济效益分析,结果表明：在所研究的价格体系内,浆态床渣油加氢技术的经济效益均明显优于沸腾床渣油加氢技术;对于较劣质原油（如伊重原油）,在原油价格高于80 美元/bbl时,采用浆态床渣油加氢技术的经济效益超过常规原油固定床渣油加氢技术,随着浆态床渣油加氢技术的逐步完善与加工成本的降低,该技术在应对特别劣质的原料时具有很好的市场应用前景;在原油价格高于35 美元/bbl时溶剂脱沥青组合技术的经济效益优于渣油焦化技术,对于缺少氢源、延迟焦化装置原料性质较好的企业,当原油价格低于55 美元/bbl时,溶剂脱沥青组合技术有较好的市场应用前景;针对常规原油,当原油价格为45～80 美元/bbl时,推荐采用固定床渣油加氢技术。     

No OPEC increase, Iraqi output up and Mexican exports down

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices fell back early in December as fears grew that high prices were about to push the US and other markets into recession. Brent fell back below $90/bbl ( see 'Oil Price Review') but the fall proved only temporary and prices began to rise sharply towards the end of the year. OPEC ministers did nothing to ease market fears when, at their meeting on 5th December in Abu Dhabi, they decided to leave the organization's output ceiling unchanged at 27,253,000 bpd. The ministers rejected calls from consuming countries to produce more oil, declaring in their communiqué that the market was "well-supplied", with stocks at "comfortable levels". The high level of prices was blamed on what the communiqué called "speculative activity" by financial funds and others. Angola and Ecuador were brought into the production-sharing system, being given output quotas respectively of 1.9 mn bpd and 520,000 bpd.     

OPEC quotas unchanged, violence continues and countries go green

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
OPEC maintained its output ceiling at 28 mn bpd at its meeting on 8th March in Vienna, agreeing to review quotas again on 1st June in Venezuela. Venezuela's oil minister said $60/ bbl was a sustainable price for WTI and that OPEC should react when prices fell below that level, having already asked his fellow ministers to cut the OPEC ceiling by 500,000 bpd. Iraq announced that it was standing by plans to raise production capacity to 3 mn bpd by the end of 2006 despite the widespread chaos and violence. It has not been able to produce more than 2 mn bpd on a sustained basis since the US-led invasion three years ago. Production has been close to 1.8 mn bpd in recent weeks. Exports via Basrah are being restricted by a lack of tugs, pipeline leakages, poor equipment and power cuts. The export route to Ceyhan has been closed by repeated acts of sabotage and is unlikely to reopen for at least eight months according to the country's oil ministry.     

Nymex entertains; Iraq, Nigeria, Kenya and Gaza disappoint

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil markets started the year on a high note before descending into farce. In the first futures trading session of the new year, with all the screens showing WTI at $99.60/bbl, one Nymex trader - doubtless with an eye on posterity - paid $100 for a contract, thereby ensuring that oil grabbed the next day's newspaper headlines, though doubts were at first expressed over the validity of a trade that was so far off the market. In the ensuing confusion someone tried to replicate the trade, then the markets returned to some form of normality and began to fall steadily for much of the rest of the month until WTI slipped almost unnoticed below $90/bbl.     

Even more price records, new refineries and a technical hitch at the IPE

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
In a final burst before retreating, oil prices once again entered record territory. WTI went to $58.28 a barrel, while Brent shot up to $57.65. In Asia, meanwhile, Malaysia's benchmark Tapis grade climbed above $61.00. The scramble to buy crude oil finally began to show up in stock levels, however, and US inventory figures showing an 8% year-on-year rise at the start of April suggested that fears of a crude oil shortage were overplayed. Prices fell sharply leaving Brent and WTI just above $51.00 a barrel. An announcement by OPEC's president, Ahmad Fahad Al Sabah, that the cartel would produce an additional 500,000 bpd in May helped to relax fears further. Product prices remained relatively more robust on a combination of high demand in the US and Asia and unscheduled refinery maintenance in the US.     

Violence in Iraq and Nigeria, OPEC cuts output, admits Angola

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Iraq ended 2006 with its crude oil exports at zero, its oil industry in need of "urgent attention", according to a report delivered to the US President and Congress, and its domestic security situation spiralling out of control. The execution of former President Saddam Hussain on 30th December failed to pacify the country, as the government appears to have hoped, as more than 2,000 Iraqi civilians died during the month of December and US military casualties passed the 3,000 mark. Crude oil exports ceased as bad weather closed the Persian Gulf terminals of Basrah and Khor al-Amaya. Exports via Ceyhan were already at a standstill, following recent attacks on the pipeline from Kirkuk. The country's main refinery, at Baiji was closed for part of December following threats to workers there and an attack on its main supply pipeline from Kirkuk. The government tried to relieve the resulting shortage of refined products by arranging to import some 6,300 bpd of fuel from Iran. The black-market prices of some refined products were reported by the Arabic newspaper, al-Hayat to have reached record levels. The Oil Ministry estimated that Iraq's oil exports were 1.6 mn bpd during 2006. Iraq has agreed to supply Jordan with 10,000 bpd of crude oil at a discount of around $18/bbl.     

OPEC abandons quotas, more violence in Nigeria and British give away gas

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna on 11th September agreed to leave the production ceiling unchanged at 28 mn bpd. The cartel, however, is to move away from formal quotas to a system of adjusting total production to world demand. The change recognizes the fact that many OPEC countries cannot produce their full quota allowances. The new policy is described by OPEC as trying "to ensure that supply and demand (remain) in balance with prices at reasonable levels". "Reasonable levels" were not defined in the communiqué, but most ministers agreed they should be in the region to $60-65/bbl. The oil markets were sceptical and prices fell below $60, reaching a seven-month low at the start of October. Nigeria announced a production cut of 120,000 bpd, though this may be a recognition of the difficulty of producing oil there at present. During September, the country was plagued by further violence in the Niger Delta, including attacks on oil workers, kidnappings and sabotage to oil installations. Oil workers went on strike for two days, threatening further walk-outs. By late September, nearly 875,000 bpd of production was estimated shut-in as a result of the current unrest. Shell said it had suspended plans to repair damaged facilities in the Niger Delta because of the continuing high level of violence.