Examining spatially varying relationships between land use and water quality using geographically weighted regression I: model design and evaluation

Traditional regression techniques such as ordinary least squares (OLS) can hide important local variations in the model parameters, and are not able to deal with spatial autocorrelations existing in the variables. A recently developed technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR), is used to examine the relationships between land use and water quality in eastern Massachusetts, USA. GWR models make great improvements of model performance over OLS models, which is proved by F-test and comparisons of model R² and corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AIC_c) from both GWR and OLS. GWR models also improve the reliabilities of the relationships by reducing spatial autocorrelations. The application of GWR models finds that the relationships between land use and water quality are not constant over space but show great spatial non-stationarity. GWR models are able to reveal the information previously ignored by OLS models on the local causes of water pollution, and so improve the model ability to explain local situation of water quality. The results of this study suggest that GWR technique has the potential to serve as a useful tool for environmental research and management at watershed, regional, national and even global scales.     

Spatial analysis and land use regression of VOCs and NO2 from school-based urban air monitoring in Detroit/Dearborn, USA

Passive ambient air sampling for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) was conducted at 25 school and two compliance sites in Detroit and Dearborn, Michigan, USA during the summer of 2005. Geographic Information System (GIS) data were calculated at each of 116 schools. The 25 selected schools were monitored to assess and model intra-urban gradients of air pollutants to evaluate impact of traffic and urban emissions on pollutant levels. Schools were chosen to be statistically representative of urban land use variables such as distance to major roadways, traffic intensity around the schools, distance to nearest point sources, population density, and distance to nearest border crossing. Two approaches were used to investigate spatial variability. First, Kruskal-Wallis analyses and pairwise comparisons on data from the schools examined coarse spatial differences based on city section and distance from heavily trafficked roads. Secondly, spatial variation on a finer scale and as a response to multiple factors was evaluated through land use regression (LUR) models via multiple linear regression. For weeklong exposures, VOCs did not exhibit spatial variability by city section or distance from major roads; NO₂ was significantly elevated in a section dominated by traffic and industrial influence versus a residential section. Somewhat in contrast to coarse spatial analyses, LUR results revealed spatial gradients in NO₂ and selected VOCs across the area. The process used to select spatially representative sites for air sampling and the results of coarse and fine spatial variability of air pollutants provide insights that may guide future air quality studies in assessing intra-urban gradients.     

Spatial and seasonal variations in the water quality of the Amu Darya River (Central Asia)

Although the use of the water resources in Uzbekistan is strongly limited by their quality, it has to be noted that there is a lack of information and data within the international scientific literature with regard to the water chemical characteristics of the Amu Darya River, one of the main water resources in Central Asia. To add to such knowledge, this paper examines the spatial and temporal variation of the water quality of the Amu Darya River in order to assess its degree of degradation and the main causal factors. The functional relationships of the pollutants with respect to the flow regime are investigated. Finally an "opportune temporal window" for water withdrawal for filling the reservoirs, in relation to human consumption, will be indicated. The high salinization levels of the waters are mainly due to the presence of sulphates and chlorine. At the up-stream site salinity, although presenting elevated concentrations, does not exceed palatability levels; after the 450 km point the opportune temporal window for water withdrawal with acceptable salinity values is reduced to the period from May to September. Two main driving forces govern the temporal variation of the salinity of the Amu Darya water: a low drainage density of the area which limits the salt loads induced by the natural runoff processes, and snow and glacier melting in the upper catchment area which promotes dilution of the dissolved salts during the high-flow period. During low-flow periods salinity is strongly influenced by the return of waters used for land washing and irrigation.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use and climate changes on surface water quality in the Des Plaines River watershed, Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area, Illinois

Modeling the effects of past and current land use composition and climatic patterns on surface water quality provides valuable information for environmental and land planning. This study predicts the future impacts of urban land use and climate changes on surface water quality within Des Plaines River watershed, Illinois, between 2010 and 2030. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used to characterize three future land use/planning scenarios. Each scenario encourages low density residential growth, normal urban growth, and commercial growth, respectively. Future climate patterns examined include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) B1 and A1B groups. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to estimate total suspended solids and phosphorus concentration generated at a 10 year interval. The predicted results indicate that for a large portion of the watershed, the concentration of total suspended solids (TSS) would be higher under B1 and A1B climate scenarios during late winter and early spring compared to the same period in 2010; while the summer period largely demonstrates a reverse trend. Model results further suggest that by 2020, phosphorus concentration would be higher during the summer under B1 climate scenario compared to 2010, and is expected to wane by 2030. The projected phosphorus concentrations during the late winter and early spring periods vary across climate and land use scenarios. The analysis also denotes that middle and high density residential development can reduce excess TSS concentration, while the establishment of dense commercial and industrial development might help ameliorate high phosphorus levels. The combined land use and climate change analysis revealed land use development schemes that can be adopted to mitigate potential future water quality impairment. This research provides important insights into possible adverse consequences on surface water quality and resources under certain climate change and land use scenarios.     

Nutrient discharges to Biscayne Bay, Florida: trends, loads, and a pollutant index

Changes in land use, management practices, and environmental conditions may all lead to detectable differences in nutrients transported to aquatic systems. Biscayne Bay, an oligotrophic estuary in southeastern Florida, requires minimal phosphorus and nitrogen inputs and here we quantified the effects of continued watershed development. Nutrient (nitrate/nitrite-nitrogen [NO_X-N], total ammonia nitrogen [NH₃-N], and total phosphorus [TP]) water quality data (1992-2006) from six monitoring sites were evaluated using trend analysis, load estimation, and a new Pollutant Empower Density (PED) index. The PED index assesses the effect of discharged pollutants relative to the background productivity of aquatic environments. NO_X-N, NH₃-N, and TP concentrations declined or exhibited no change at most sites, with only six instances of significantly (p < 0.1) increasing trends. Load estimates revealed higher NO_X-N loads in the southern, agricultural section of the watershed and higher NH₃-N and TP loads in the urbanized northern and central areas. NO_X-N loads from site MW04 (south) were the highest for all sites while site LR06 (north) had the highest NH₃-N and TP loads. Of the evaluated canal discharges, PED index values also suggested that canal discharges from these two sites (MW04 and LR06) had the greatest potential for impact in the bay. Overall, water quality is generally improving but canal discharges are coupled with land use activities in adjacent drainage areas. Trend analysis, load estimation, and the PED index can be used together to provide a more holistic interpretation of water quality, which is necessary for optimizing resources to meet watershed management goals.     

巴拉河山地聚落空间形态量化方法研究

空间是建筑与聚落研究的核心内容。在对巴拉河流域山地聚落考察与研究的基础上,力图建立一种科学的、理性的山地聚落空间量化分析的方法。通过实地的调查研究、综合运用建筑学、规划学、GIs与地理学、景观学、计算机图形学等学科的理论与技术、采取定量与定性分析相结合的分析手段,构建起一个对巴拉河流域山地聚落进行空间形态量化分析的方法体系,并将这种方法体系运用于对山地聚落群资源进行保护利用及发展。     

Use of watershed factors to predict consumer surfactant risk, water quality, and habitat quality in the upper Trinity River, Texas

Surfactants are high production volume chemicals that are used in a wide assortment of “down-the-drain” consumer products. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) generally remove 85 to more than 99% of all surfactants from influents, but residual concentrations are discharged into receiving waters via wastewater treatment plant effluents. The Trinity River that flows through the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area, Texas, is an ideal study site for surfactants due to the high ratio of wastewater treatment plant effluent to river flow (> 95%) during late summer months, providing an interesting scenario for surfactant loading into the environment. The objective of this project was to determine whether surfactant concentrations, expressed as toxic units, in-stream water quality, and aquatic habitat in the upper Trinity River could be predicted based on easily accessible watershed characteristics. Surface water and pore water samples were collected in late summer 2005 at 11 sites on the Trinity River in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. Effluents of 4 major waste water treatment plants that discharge effluents into the Trinity River were also sampled. General chemistries and individual surfactant concentrations were determined, and total surfactant toxic units were calculated. GIS models of geospatial, anthropogenic factors (e.g., population density) and natural factors (e.g., soil organic matter) were collected and analyzed according to subwatersheds. Multiple regression analyses using the stepwise maximum R² improvement method were performed to develop prediction models of surfactant risk, water quality, and aquatic habitat (dependent variables) using the geospatial parameters (independent variables) that characterized the upper Trinity River watershed. We show that GIS modeling has the potential to be a reliable and inexpensive method of predicting water and habitat quality in the upper Trinity River watershed and perhaps other highly urbanized watersheds in semi-arid regions.     

Regional water quality management for the Karun–Dez River basin, Iran

To achieve water quality goals in a river basin, a water quality management model (WQMM) has been developed through the geographic information system (GIS) approach and a mathematical water quality model. The developed model has been applied to the Karun and Dez Rivers, where water quality has decreased due to heavy pollutant loads from Khuzestan province cities and surrounding areas. Pollution sources, land use, geographic features and measured water quality data of the river basin were incorporated into the Arc‐View GIS database. With the database, the management model calculated management type and management cost for each management project in the river basin. Until now, river management policy for polluted rivers in Iran first penalizes pollution sources and then constructs treatment plants for the pollution sources whose wastewater is released untreated and for which the wastewater quality goal of the Iranian Department of Environment is not met. Different management projects with a time programme were proposed and they were compared with the results of the river quality without any management approach. It became clear that the results based on the management approach were much better than those for the unmanaged condition from the viewpoint of the achievement of water quality goals and cost optimization.     

Estimating the effect of water quality on surface water supplies

River quality models derived by regression analysis are often quick and cheap to produce. They can be used as a basis for forecasting river quality and to calculate the effects of water quality constraints on the operation of water supplies drawn from rivers and impoundments. Results for nitrate show that to operate intakes according to river quality is a poor method of controlling quality in impoundments.     

Water quality trends in the Tarkwa gold-mining district,Ghana

A detailed hydrochemical investigation has been undertaken to establish whether mining has adversely affected streams in the Tarkwa gold-mining district and, if so, to what extent. The results show that streams that pass through mining areas and receive mine water exhibit significant spatial and temporal variations in their major ion hydrochemistry. Water analyses of perceived pristine areas reveal that the study area has undergone silicate weathering, but in mining areas, carbonate weathering was inferred. The inconsistency is attributed to the chemistry of mine waters discharging into receiving streams. This is supported by the average pH values of 6.48 for pristine streams and 7.74 for those affected by mine water. Trace element analysis did not show significant changes from the norm except for discharges from a spoil heap, which exhibited hydrochemical characteristics consistent with acid mine drainage. Saturation indices determined for the water samples reflect the sandstone–quartzite–phyllite lithology and intense weathering regime of the area as a result of the humid tropical climate.     

A decision support system for water quality issues in the Manzanares River (Madrid, Spain)

The Manzanares River, located in Madrid (Spain), is the main water supplier of a highly populated region, and it also receives wastewater from the same area. The effluents of eight Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTPs) downstream of the river, which represent 90% of the flow in the middle and lower parts of the river, are the primary sources of water pollution. Although the situation has improved slightly in the last two years, the water in the river is highly polluted, making it uninhabitable for aquatic life. Water quality modelling is typically used to assess the effect of treatment improvements in water bodies. In this work, the GESCAL module of the Aquatool Decision Support System Shell was used to simulate water quality in the Manzanares River. GESCAL is appropriate for modelling in an integrated way water quality for whole water resources systems, including reservoirs and rivers. A model was built that simulates conductivity, phosphorous, carbonaceous organic matter, dissolved oxygen, organic nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrates. The period from October 2006 to September 2008 was selected for calibration due to the many treatment modifications that occurred during this time. An earlier and longer period, from October 2000 to September 2006, was used for validation. In addition, a daily model was used to analyse the robustness of the GESCAL model. Once the GESCAL model was validated, different scenarios were considered and simulated. First, different combinations of nutrient elimination among the different WWTPs were simulated, leading to the conclusion that investments have to focus on three of the proposed WWTPs. Moreover, these treatments will not be sufficient to maintain fish habitat conditions at all times. Additional measures, such as the increment of the flow in the river or oxygen injection, were simulated. Incrementing the flow of the Manzanares River has been shown to be an efficient means of increasing water quality, but this implies an increment in the risk of water scarcity situations in the Madrid water supply system.     

Treated water quality assurance and description of distribution networks by multivariate chemometrics

Throughout the year 2007, 89 treated water samples from three water treatment plants (WTPs) of the Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company (EYDAP S.A.) and 180 samples from network tanks (NWTs) were analyzed for electrical conductivity (EC), alkalinity (TA), pH, aluminium (Al), total hardness (TH), chloride (Cl⁻), residual chlorine (free Cl), calcium (Ca²⁺) and magnesium (Mg²⁺). The results regarding the WTPs were subjected to a principal component analysis (PCA) with 75% of the total variance being explained. A stepwise linear discriminant analysis (LDA) model constructed from the 89 treated water samples was used to predict class membership of the samples from the NWTs with a view to estimating the propagation of a possible water quality deterioration originating from the WTPs. The model utilized Cl⁻, Al and EC and yielded a 96% correct classification of the training dataset, whereas the cross-validation yielded a 94% correct classification. Network tank samples were 95% correctly classified with regard to their theoretically expected origin. The stepwise discriminant analysis based on separate covariance matrices of the canonical discriminant functions yielded a 98% correct classification of both the training dataset and the network tank samples. The classification and regression tree (C&RT) algorithm showed that the main parameters used in the discrimination of the WTP samples were EC and Al. The post-hoc classification of the training dataset was 99%, whereas 88% of NWT samples were correctly classified.     

新时期珠三角城镇空间拓展的模式与动力机制分析

2000年以来,珠三角城镇空间拓展的模式转型表现出正规化和多样化的新趋势。土地资源的日益稀缺迫使政府通过制度手段、政策调控推进近郊农村全盘“城市化”,同时,通过生物岛、大学城等大型项目建设,实现农村地区的大幅度“城市化”。城镇空间拓展的模式正由原有的自下而上、内生化的旧模式向强调政府主导的新方向转变。“城中村”进入真正的转型社区阶段,成为转型社区,其改制与改造的推进使城市空间扩张格局正由“非正规化”转向“正规化”。城市土地稀缺问题暂时缓解,但新城市社区中社会与人的城市化进程将任重而道远。     

Spatial variations of storm runoff pollution and their correlation with land-use in a rapidly urbanizing catchment in China

The composition of land use for a rapidly urbanizing catchment is usually heterogeneous, and this may result in significant spatial variations of storm runoff pollution and increase the difficulties of water quality management. The Shiyan Reservoir catchment, a typical rapidly urbanizing area in China, is chosen as a study area, and temporary monitoring sites were set at the downstream of its 6 sub-catchments to synchronously measure rainfall, runoff and water quality during 4 storm events in 2007 and 2009. Due to relatively low frequency monitoring, the IHACRES and exponential pollutant wash-off simulation models are used to interpolate the measured data to compensate for data insufficiency. Three indicators, event pollutant loads per unit area (EPL), event mean concentration (EMC) and pollutant loads transported by the first 50% of runoff volume (FF50), were used to describe the runoff pollution for different pollutants in each sub-catchment during the storm events, and the correlations between runoff pollution spatial variations and land-use patterns were tested by Spearman's rank correlation analysis. The results indicated that similar spatial variation trends were found for different pollutants (EPL or EMC) in light storm events, which strongly correlate with the proportion of residential land use; however, they have different trends in heavy storm events, which correlate with not only the residential land use, but also agricultural and bare land use. And some pairs of pollutants (such as COD/BOD, NH₃-N/TN) might have the similar source because they have strong or moderate positive spatial correlation. Moreover, the first flush intensity (FF50) varies with impervious land areas and different interception ratio of initial storm runoff volume should be adopted in different sub-catchments.     

Using multi-criteria analysis to explore non-market monetary values of water quality changes in the context of the Water Framework Directive

The EU Water Framework Directive represents a major change in the management of water resources and sets ambitious ecological objectives for all European waters. In the Directive, the economic assessment of the non-market environmental benefits of water quality improvements plays a crucial role. Studies valuing these benefits are now appearing in the literature, applying stated preference valuation techniques. However, these techniques are often criticized for providing only narrow mono-criterion information to the decision-making process. The research presented here builds on a recent line of investigation that combines monetary stated preference tools, in this case a choice experiment, with multi-criteria analysis, in this case the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). We argue that the AHP can contribute to a better understanding and interpretation of the choice experiment results by exploring the criteria involved in respondents' trade-off between the attributes. The AHP provides relevant insights for the application of use-based water quality ladders in the valuation of environmental benefits in the context of the WFD. Results also show the importance of the spatial dimension of preferences for water quality.     

Impact of inland pollution sources on the bacteriological water quality of the Southern Ganghwado Bay Area,South Korea

The bacteriological pollution of water is a serious global environmental issue. The pollution of water by human and animal wastes can be a source of hazardous pathogens, which may pose serious health risks. In this study, we evaluated the microbiological water quality in the southern Ganghwado Bay area, South Korea. A total of 30 samples (14 discharge water samples from the drainage area and 16 sea water samples from the adjacent area) were analyzed for the concentrations of total coliforms (TC) and fecal coliforms (FC) in November 2013. The highest concentration of FC (28,000 MPN/100 mL) was found at site L1 (inland). The highest mean concentrations of coliforms were found at sites W9 (sea water) and W11 (sea water), with TC and FC concentrations of 33 MPN/100 mL. In conclusion, site L1 located near W9 and W11 is clearly identified as the main source of pollution at Dongmak Beach.     

A new mode of river basin management in South Korea

This study aims to explore a new mode of river basin management in South Korea by evaluating the current river basin management system and taking lessons from the British and French cases. This research is based on literature reviews and interviews in the United Kingdom, France and South Korea. The British case emphasizes the importance of regulatory framework and limitations of public participation. The French experience epitomizes the empowerment of river basin organizations. The new system in South Korea includes an enactment of water law, a set-up of the National Water Council, the River Basin Authorities and the River Basin Committees. The new model will not be established soon but needs to take a step-by-step approach to minimize social conflicts, accommodate diverse opinions in society and satisfy a variety of demands.     

Assessment of the surface water quality in Northern Greece

The application of different multivariate statistical approaches for the interpretation of a large and complex data matrix obtained during a monitoring program of surface waters in Northern Greece is presented in this study. The dataset consists of analytical results from a 3-yr survey conducted in the major river systems (Aliakmon, Axios, Gallikos, Loudias and Strymon) as well as streams, tributaries and ditches. Twenty-seven parameters have been monitored on 25 key sampling sites on monthly basis (total of 22,350 observations). The dataset was treated using cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis and multiple regression analysis on principal components. CA showed four different groups of similarity between the sampling sites reflecting the different physicochemical characteristics and pollution levels of the studied water systems. Six latent factors were identified as responsible for the data structure explaining 90% of the total variance of the dataset and are conditionally named organic, nutrient, physicochemical, weathering, soil-leaching and toxic-anthropogenic factors. A multivariate receptor model was also applied for source apportionment estimating the contribution of identified sources to the concentration of the physicochemical parameters. This study presents the necessity and usefulness of multivariate statistical assessment of large and complex databases in order to get better information about the quality of surface water, the design of sampling and analytical protocols and the effective pollution control/management of the surface waters.     

Comparisons of water quality parameters from diverse catchments during dry periods and following rain events

In this study, 12 catchments sites located along the north coast of New South Wales in Australia were grouped into the four categories of septic, cattle, sewage treatment plant (STP) and forested sites via cluster analysis based on their land use patterns. Water samples from all these sites were collected between October 2004 and June 2006 at a regular monthly interval and within 48 h of rain events. The samples were analyzed for bacterial counts including faecal coliform and total coliform; faecal sterols including coprostanol, epicoprostanol, cholesterol, cholestanol, 24-ethylcoprostanol, campesterol, stigmasterol and beta-sitosterol; and the elements including Na, Rb, Sr, Ag, Cd, Sn, Cs, Ba, Hg, Tl, Pb, Bi, U, Mg, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, K, As, Se, P and Mo. Over the course of the sampling period, the STP site had the highest average coprostanol level of 1693+/-567 ng/L which was significantly higher (p<0.05) than the septic sites (190+/-71 ng/L), the cattle sites (163+/-94 ng/L) and forested sites (14+/-4 ng/L). As expected, the forested sites had significantly lower average level of faecal coliforms (373+/-87 cfu/100 mL) compared with the STP (1395+/-574 cfu/100 mL), septic (1243+/-494 cfu/100 mL) and cattle sites (535+/-112 cfu/100 mL). The concentrations of coprostanol were not correlated with the numbers of faecal coliform bacteria when the entire data set was evaluated. The forested sites generally had the lowest average levels of elemental compositions, with significantly lower levels noted for Na, U, Mg, V, Cu, Sr, K, As, P and Mo, whereas Fe was the only element notably higher in the forested sites. Temporal and rain events analyses of the data set revealed that elevated levels of both coprostanol and faecal coliforms were not exclusive to rain events. The average coprostanol levels in rain event samples at each site were not significantly different compared with the corresponding dry event samples. Conversely, faecal coliform numbers increased by 2-4 times in rain events samples from septic, cattle and forested sites, but did not alter in the STP site. Multivariate analyses identified coprostanol and Sr as major contributing factors for the discrimination of septic, cattle, STP and forested sites for both rain and dry events samples. It was clear that each land use type of catchment could be characterized by biochemical, bacteriological and elemental parameters.     

Recent water quality trends in the Schuylkill River,Pennsylvania, USA: a preliminary assessment of the relative influences of climate,river discharge and suburban development

Climate, flow rate and land use are all known drivers of water quality in river systems, but determining the relative influences of these factors remains a significant challenge for aquatic science and management. Long-term data from the Schuylkill River at Philadelphia is assessed here in an attempt to ascertain the separate and combined influence of these major drivers on water quality in a developed watershed. Water quality measures including nutrients, conservative solutes and bacteria all elicited distinct seasonal patterns driven primarily by river discharge. Mass transport rates of sodium and chloride have increased with time, and were elevated in winter, presumably as a function of road salt deposition. A steady increase in developed land area in the watershed has occurred in recent decades, which allowed the use of time as a surrogate parameter for regional development in the construction of multiple factor linear models predicting the relative influences of precipitation, river discharge and developed land area on river water quality. Linear models predicting annually averaged water quality measures showed the effects of precipitation, discharge and developed land area to be of nearly equal importance in regulating levels of conductivity, alkalinity, sodium, and chloride in the river. Models predicting water quality variables for discrete samples demonstrated that river flow was the major determinant of daily variability in alkalinity, conductivity, hardness and calcium levels, while still resolving the highly significant influence of watershed development on water quality. Increases in solute transport in the Schuylkill River in recent decades appear to be the direct result of modern suburban development in the watershed.