Dynamic forecasting of travel demand,residential location and land development

TheChicago Area Transportation/Land-Use Analysis System (CATLAS) is a large scale urban simulation model which synthesizes location rent analysis from urban economics with travel demand analysis from transportation planning. This paper describes the theoretical formulation, empirical estimation and policy application of CATLAS to the evaluation of CBD-oriented rapid transit projects in Chicago.     

The concept of local development: A stages model of endogenous regional growth

The concept of local development is defined as a particular form of regional development, one in which endogenous factors occupy a central position. A stages model of local development is proposed: 1) the emergence of local entrepreneurship; 2) the take off of local enterprises; 3) the expansion of these enterprises beyond the local region; and 4) the achievement of a regional economic structure that is based upon local initiatives and locally created comparative advantages. The theoretical and empirical foundations of this model are examined, with particular emphasis upon the roles of the entrepreneur and of human capital in the process of economic growth, and upon the spatial effects of the expansion of the firm.This paper was originally written and presented in French under the title of Le concept de développement local en sciences régionales: voies de réflexion et de recherche.     

Fire drainage system

Present firesafety measures were conceived to deal with hypothetical fires spreading by destruction of successive compartment boundaries. A new firesafety system, referred to as the fire drainage system, is designed to cope with real-world fires spreading mainly by convection. It confines fire and smoke to the room of origin and to a small corridor element adjacent to the room. The system can be designed to operate without the use of water and electric energy. The fundamentals of its design are described and some experimental information is presented. Reference: T. Z. Harmathy and I. Oleszkiewicz, Fire Drainage System,Fire Technology, Vol. 23, No. 1, February 1987, p. 26.This paper is a contribution from the Institute for Research in Construction, National Research Council of Canada.     

Effective characteristics of the deformation properties of stratified rock

Conclusions 1. The asymptotic method of averaging, which ensures the closeness of solutions for initial inhomogeneous and equivalent homogeneous masses having the same dimensions and the same loading is recommended for computation of the effective characteristics of the deformation properties of stratified rock.2. The E values obtained by the method of averaging and from Tarkhov's equation (1) are in virtual agreement. The compression moduli E obtained by the method of averaging are considerably higher than the corresponding values given by the second formula of (1). The difference between the decreases as E₁ approaches E₂.3. St. Venent's relationship (7) is not satisfied for the moduli of stratified rock. The G_S values are significantly higher than the G values obtained by the method of averaging The difference between them decreases as E₁ approaches E₂.4. Poisson's ratio v, can be assumed equal to Poisson's ratio of a stiffer material for a broad range of variation in . It is a virtual linear function of interlayer thickness over a significant range.5. The values given for the compression moduli and Poisson's ratio of a mass depend on the ratio of the moduli of the component layers and are independent of the absolute value of these moduli; this makes it possible to confirm the relationships obtained experimentally not only for field, but also for model data.Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 1, pp. 19–21, January–February, 1990.     

Preventing fire in historic buildings: The acceptable risk

The nature of historic buildings is considered from a firesafety viewpoint and some of the concepts of acceptable risk are described. The main approaches to the provision of adequate firesafety are discussed and the use of conventional fire precautions is reviewed briefly in the context of historic buildings.This paper is a revised version of a paper given at a seminar, Preventing Fire in Historic and Older Properties, organized by the Royal Incorporation of Architects in Scotland on April 19, 1988 at Hopetoun House, near Edinburgh.     

Linear thermal expansion of granitic rocks: influence of apparent porosity,grain size and quartz content

Values for the linear thermal expansion coefficients () of some Brazilian granitic rocks commercially used as facings for building are presented. The coefficients were determined within a temperature range of 0 to 50 °C, with the temperature raised at a rate of 0.3 °C/min. The values obtained were related to the apparent porosity, grain size and quartz content of the rocks. It is concluded that while increases with an increase in quartz content, it decreases with increases in apparent porosity and mineral grain size.     

Experimental investigation of the effect of the bending stiffness of reinforced-concrete piles under lateral load

Conclusions 1. The stress-strain state of the reinforced-concrete-pile/soil system depends on both the elastoplastic properties of the soil, and the pile material.2. The variation in the bending stiffness of the cross section of a reinforced-concrete pile during loading should be accounted for in calculating the lateral load on these piles. Consideration of this factor will make it possible to determine the stress-strain state of the system under consideration more accurately; this will ensure a saving of concrete and reinforcement.Kharkov Institute of Civil Engineers. Kharkov Scientific-Research Institute for the Design and Planning of Industrial Construction. Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 4, pp. 9–11, July–August, 1988.     

Employment effects of changes in transportation infrastructure: methodological aspects of the gravity model

Assessing the employment effects of changes in transport infrastructure, such as the construction of the Channel Tunnel or high-speed rail connections, is not an easy task. The gravity model is sometimes used to analyse changes in the potentials of the regions concerned. One sttep further would be the translation of changes in potentials into changes in employment per region. This paper will be devoted to analysing some properties and limitation of such a translation process. Special attention is paid to an operational model developed by Evers et al. (1987) for this purpose. It is shown that this model is almost consistent with the theory of locational behaviou of firms.     

Into the black box of environmental Kuznets curves: Optimal growth and material resource use in two trading countries

Most important environmental problems can be related to materials flows through the economy. Regional and national economies use materials that are either extracted domestically or imported from other regions. Therefore, an analysis of optimal patterns of combined economic development and materials use requires that both trade and environmental aspects are taken into account. A model is presented here that optimises long-term welfare for two regions that trade in virgin and recycled materials as well as consumer goods. The regions differ in one respect, namely with regard to domestic availability of a material resource. Analysis of the model shows, among other things, that the relationship between production and virgin material use can follow an Environmental Kuznets curves or an N-shaped curve. The latter points at re-linking of income growth and material resource use. Although trade of material resources and goods increases the carrying capacity of both regions, and in turn their levels of welfare, it can not prevent the re-linking phenomenon.This study was part of the research programme Materials Use and Spatial Scales in Industrial Metabolism (MUSSIM), which was funded by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO). For information see: www.feweb.vu.nl/re/MUSSIM/mussim.htm.     

Fire protection of flammable work stations in the clean room environment of a microelectronic fabrication facility

An applied engineering program is described which investigates the fire safety of combustible wet stations used within microelectronic clean room fabrication facilities. The main concern involves the impact of a wet bench fire on the clean room environment of the fabrication facility. The effectiveness of the installed fire detection and suppression systems are discussed as well as the additional steps which should be taken in order to insure early detection and suppression of fires within wet benches. Reference: Fred L. Fisher, Robert Brady Williamson, Gary L. Toms and Dennis M. Crinnion, Fire Protection of Flammable Work Stations in the Clean Room Environment of a Microelectronic Fabrication Facility,Fire Technology, Vol. 22, No. 2, May 1986, p. 148.     

Combinatorial procedures for the analysis of alternate models: An example from interregional migration

In this paper we present a methodology for comparing the adequacy of two or more models in terms of how well they represent a given data set. A set of interregional migration models is tested, including several variations of push-pull models, Wilson's entropy maximizing model, a quadratic programming solution, and and ANOVA model. Testing is undertaken using a heuristic procedure based on a pair by pair comparison of models to see which one best represents migration flows as estimated by the Census Bureau. The results of the pairwise testing are presented visually in a matrix map which allows us to illustrate the degree to which a perfect ordering of the comparison indices exists, and the degree to which individual models cluster together.     

Development and application of a fire station placement model

This paper describes the development and application of a fire station placement model. The model is formulated as a mathematical programming model which locates p sites out of m candidate sites such that some function of the travel times of the first and second arriving fire units is maximized subject to several constraints. Among these constraints are limitations in the maximum allowable travel time to points in a region, requirements that certain sites be included or excluded, and a specification that a given number of existing sites be included.The model uses as an objective function a utility function based on the subjective preferences of fire department officials to travel times of the first and second arriving fire units. A modification of the Teitz and Bart node substitution heuristic is used to find the solution to the model.The model is applied to fire station locational decisions in Albany, NY. The model was run a number of times to provide insights into how some strategic decisions might be made. Reference: Jack M. Reilly and Pitu B. Mirchandani, Development and Application of a Fire Station Placement Model,Fire Technology, Vol. 21, No. 3, August 1985, p. 181.     

Smoke Control in Hospitals

Full scale fire tests have been carried out in order to study the influence of different ventilating principles on the time point of fire detection and the smoke filling of a four-bed room. Using conventional mechanical ventilating systems as smoke exhaust systems the time difference left for evacuation of the fire room can be positively influenced. With the conventional ventilating system operating there is a significant difference between time points of detection of the ionization and optical smoke detectors, for both flaming and smoldering fire. Using the low momentum displacement ventilation this difference is reduced, resulting in possibilities for the ionization smoke detector to be optimized for both flaming and smoldering fires. Reference: Øystein Meland and Eimund Skåret, Smoke Control in Hospitals,Fire Technology, Vol. 22, No. 1, February 1986, p. 33.     

Toxic Hazard evaluation of plenum cables

Code provisions covering the installation of low voltage cables in plenum spaces above suspended ceilings used for environmental air are reviewed. A calculation procedure which could be used to estimate the potential toxicity of the decomposition products from these cables relative to the toxicity of the compartment fire necessary to decompose the cable insulation is presented. These estimates are used in a four-step procedure for estimating Smoke Toxicity Hazard proposed by the NFPA Toxicity Advisory Committee which is described. Example calculations for some typical cases and a discussion of their limitations are included. Reference: Richard W. Bukowski, Toxic Hazard Evaluation of Plenum Cables,Fire Technology, Vol. 21, No. 4, November 1985, p. 252.This paper is a contribution of the National Bureau of Standards and is not subject to copyright.     

Marginal opportunity cost as a planning concept in natural resource management

Renewable resources are being used in non-sustainable ways in many countries in the world. The costs of non-sustainability need to be enumerated and valued in order to establish the desirability or otherwise of such development paths. The appropriate concept is marginal opportunity cost (MOC), a measure of the social costs of resource depletion. This concept is set in the context of models of the development process which stress the relationship between environment and development as a coevolutionary one rather than one of trading off material gain against environmental quality. Measures of MOC need to reflect the often intricate physical and ecological interlinkages within ecosystems, allowing for, e.g., the relationship between deforestation, soil erosion, streamflow and sedimentation. In turn, MOC comprises direct costs of resource use, the externalities arising from ecological interlinkage, and a user cost component which arises because of non-sustainable resource use. Formulated in this way, MOC has implications for shadow pricing exercises, national accounting, and for the choice of sector and geographical area for project appraisal.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors, and should not be attributed to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to any individual acting on their behalf. The authors wish to acknowledge assistance from the World Bank and the UK ESRC for earlier work on which this paper is based.     

Tijuana-San Diego: Globalization and the transborder metropolis

This paper explores the degree to which the Tijuana-San Diego metropolitan region functions as a transborder metropolis. It is shown that the border is quite porous, especially for work and shopping. In addition, the two metropolitan economies are much more complementary than competitive, with San Diego specializing in high-order services and the new economy while Tijuana primarily functions as a manufacturing center, based on maquiladora. However, much more cooperation and collaboration are needed in several areas: improving trade infrastructure; addressing the deficits in social infrastructure (especially in Tijuana); making the border crossings more user-friendly; expanding educational opportunities for Latinos in both areas; more priority to environmental problems, especially air quality and sewerage; attempting to reduce the public sector fiscal differentials between the two areas; and more attention to income distribution issues.     

The impacts of globalization on St. Petersburg: A secondary world city in from the cold?

St. Petersburg has not been successful in overcoming a large number of social and economic obstacles inherited from its Soviet past. St. Petersburg is missing an important set of pre-conditions that are critical to attain a level of global interaction required to be considered for secondary city status in a semi-peripheral country. Only the city's cultural activities appear to qualify the city for world city status. As long as Russia itself remains stuck in transition, world city status for St. Petersburg will remain elusive. The author gratefully thanks the organizers of the Impacts of Globalization on Urban Development conference and the anonymous reviewers of this paper.     

Vertical stresses in a base of finite thickness

Two models for calculating stresses in the base of a structure are compared: a semiinfinite elastic solid and layer of finite thickness. The advantages and shortcomings of these models, confirmed by construction practice, are shown. A number of refinements in solutions by the finite-layer method providing a more accurate determination of coefficients and ₀ necessary for calculating vertical stresses are proposed.Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 5, pp. 5–7, September–October, 1992.     

Development and Application of the Fire Brigade Intervention Model

A performance based building code [1] was introduced in Australia in 1996. In order that fire brigades could ensure that their functional role was maintained in the building code, a method of quantifying fire brigade roles was required. In response to this issue, the Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) formed a Performance Based Fire Engineering Committee. This committee developed a model that determines the time taken by a fire brigade to undertake its activities at a fire scene.The Fire Brigade Intervention Model [2] is an event-based methodology, which quantifies fire brigade responses employed during a structure fire from time of notification through to control and extinguishment. It has been primarily developed for use in fire engineering design in a performance based regulatory environment so that the functional role of a fire brigade can be effectively incorporated into the building design process. It establishes a structured framework necessary to both determine and measure fire brigade activities on a time-line basis. It interacts with the output of other sub-systems, which model such events as fire growth, smoke spread, fire spread, detection and suppression as well as occupant avoidance.This paper describes the Fire Brigade Intervention Model, now available for use by fire brigades and fire engineers. The model has been developed for specific case and site analysis and is applicable to most structural fire scenarios. As the expertise of the local fire brigade will be incorporated inthe input parameters, it is valid for most brigade types, crew sizes and resource limitations.This paper also describes ongoing developments including a training package and computer program.The terms fire brigade and fire department are synonymous.     

Shell Foundations on Tamped Soil Beds

A method is proposed for the installation of a shell foundation on a bed formed from a compacted soil pillar, which repeats the internal shape of the shell, and which can be formed by a special conical die. Results are cited for full-scale tests under field conditions, and an approximate method is proposed for estimation of the bearing capacity of the soil bed from static-probe data.