全面建设小康社会能源需求预测中的几个问题

全面建设小康社会．对能源将提出更大的需求，分析了我国目前预测能源需求的方法．指出我国节能将由结构节能向技术节能转变。     

“十一五”期间我国交通部门能源需求展望及节能潜力分析

本文首先介绍了我国交通用能展望和节能潜力分析的基本思路和方法,然后对"十一五"期间,交通部门在规划方案(7.5%的GDP增速)和高经济增长方案(9%的GDP增速)下的节能潜力、可能完成的节能量做了详细的定量分析和比较研究;最后在此基础上梳理、归纳了几点结论和建议。     

核能——未来能源需求的必然选择

生命质量与能源人类从发明火、发明微小石器之时起，便开始了为改善生命质量而进行的永恒探索。生命质量，其本意比通常人们所理解的要宽广、深奥、多样，包含的内容诸如有人均寿命、安全饮用水利用率、食品营养、住房、上学、交通工具，甚至环境质量等。生命质量与经济发展，国家社会安定密切相关，其中，影响人类发展指数（HDI）和国民总产值GNP的一个重要的、也是基本的因素就是能源，（附：部分国家人类发展指数排名及人均国民总产值一览表）即：人类生存与经济增长离不开能源。否则，生命质量的改善，社会的安定，国家的尊严则无法…     

上海能源形势和能源需求预测分析

总结了10年来上海能源发展对国民经济发展的支撑及能源结构、能源污染物排放、能源利用效率等方面的能源基本情况,分析了中国能源供需格局的变化、上海能源发展面临的制约因素、上海工业能源用能行业集中等方面面临的能源挑战,并采用中长期能源选择规划模型与相关用能领域的预测模型相结合的方法预测了上海2015年和2020年上海工业、建筑、交通领域的用能需求。     

能源需求与二氧化碳排放分析决策支持系统

本文将情景分析思想和投入产出方法相结合,提出并设计开发了基于投入产出的能源决策支持系统;阐述了其设计原理及结构组成;通过对该系统的开发和应用表明,将情景分析和投入产出相结合为能源需求和相应二氧化碳排放预测提供了一条有效的途径。     

世界能源需求现状及展望

能源是促进经济发展的动力,是人类可持续发展的重要保证。在新世纪之初,从宏观上了解全球范围内的能源需求,把握世界能源发展的方向和面临的困难,制定合理的能源发展战略是一项紧迫的任务。     

Energy demand and CO2 emissions reduction options in Nigeria

This paper presents policy options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria. The policies were formulated based on a thorough analysis of Nigeria's current energy consumption patterns and the projected evolution of key parameters that drive Nigeria's energy demand — primarily the rate of industrialization, the demand for transportation services, and the expansion of Nigeria's population. The study shows that the most promising options for reducing CO₂ emissions in Nigeria are improving energy efficiency and increasing the use of natural gas and renewable energy sources.     

基于IESOM模型的中长期能源需求和碳排放情景分析

本文采用计量经济学方法、弹性系数法、能源服务强度法测算了2011～2030年能源服务需求。以能源服务需求、经济增速等作为输入变量,利用能源系统优化模型(IESOM),针对低、高两种经济情景,核算了基准、10%减排率、15%减排率三种排放情景下的能源需求、能源结构和碳排放量。研究发现:未来能源需求将持续较快增长,能源供应的压力较大,但减排可以有效减轻压力;在没有减排政策的情况下,中国制定的2020年碳排放强度目标将难以实现,只有当减排率达到15%左右的时候,才能实现既定的碳减排目标。     

2005～2020年中国能源需求情景及碳排放国际比较研究

本文以2005年为基期,对我国2015年与2010年一次能源需求以及碳排放进行了预测。在此基础上,与美国、日本、英国、欧盟等国家和地区以及世界平均水平1971年～2005年期间的碳排放进行了比较。研究表明中国人均二氧化碳排放量远远低于发达国家,如果与日本相比,尚有50年的差距。     

Optimizing CO2 avoided cost by means of repowering

Repowering fossil fuel power plants by means of gas turbines has been traditionally considered to increase power output and reduce NOx and SO₂ emissions both at low cost and short outage periods. At present, reduction in CO₂ emissions represents an additional advantage of repowering due to partial fuel shift and overall efficiency increase. This is especially important in existing installations with a CO₂ reduction mandatory that should be carried out in a short time and in a cost-effective manner.     

Reduction of electricity use in Swedish industry and its impact on national power supply and European CO2 emissions

Decreased energy use is crucial for achieving sustainable energy solutions. This paper presents current and possible future electricity use in Swedish industry. Non-heavy lines of business (e.g. food, vehicles) that use one-third of the electricity in Swedish industry are analysed in detail. Most electricity is used in the support processes pumping and ventilation, and manufacturing by decomposition. Energy conservation can take place through e.g. more efficient light fittings and switching off ventilation during night and weekends. By energy-carrier switching, electricity used for heat production is replaced by e.g. fuel. Taking technically possible demand-side measures in the whole lines of business, according to energy audits in a set of factories, means a 35% demand reduction. A systems analysis of power production, trade, demand and conservation was made using the MODEST energy system optimisation model, which uses linear programming and considers the time-dependent impact on demand for days, weeks and seasons. Electricity that is replaced by district heating from a combined heat and power (CHP) plant has a dual impact on the electricity system through reduced demand and increased electricity generation. Reduced electricity consumption and enhanced cogeneration in Sweden enables increased electricity export, which displaces coal-fired condensing plants in the European electricity market and helps to reduce European CO₂ emissions. Within the European emission trading system, those electricity conservation measures should be taken that are more cost-efficient than other ways of reducing CO₂ emissions. The demand-side measures turn net electricity imports into net export and reduce annual operation costs and net CO₂ emissions due to covering Swedish electricity demand by 200 million euros and 6 Mtonne, respectively. With estimated electricity conservation in the whole of Swedish industry, net electricity exports would be larger and net CO₂ emissions would be even smaller.     

海藻类生物质减排CO2的分析

CO2减排已经成为全球热点问题,而生物CO2固定技术被认为是符合自然界循环和节省能源的理想方式。海藻作为一种不占用耕地的生物质,其种类繁多,生长周期短,相比陆上生物质能真正实现短时期内的CO2零排放。通过对海藻类生物质一年周期生物固碳的计算,看出其减排CO2的潜力巨大,进而可考虑海藻培养与CO2排放行业实现共建,为我们提供CO2减排一种新思路。     

Energy and CO2 emissions in Korea: Long-term scenarios and related policies

Korea will require increasingly higher energy inputs in coming years to further its economic development process. While due to the inconvenience of coal use and its negative impacts on the environment, Korea's reliance on its most carbon-intensive energy source will drop over the next few decades, the overall growth of energy demand (and particularly the rising consumption of oil) will translate into substantially higher emissions of energy-related CO₂. This paper presents the results of two long-term scenarios for Korea for the year 2025 in order to investigate the possibilities of constraining the future growth of energy and emissions. The results indicate that by improving energy efficiency through technological progress, fuel switching and related policies, Korea can begin to make the necessary transition to a less carbon-intensive future.     

Energy and exergy prices of various energy sources along with their CO2 equivalents

Various types of energy sources are used in the residential and industrial sectors. Choosing the type of sources is important. When an energy source is selected, its CO₂ equivalent and energy and exergy prices must be known for a sustainable future and for establishing energy policies. These prices are based on their energy values. Exergy analysis has been recently applied to a wide range of energy-related systems. Thus, obtaining the exergy values has become more meaningful for long-term planning. In this study, energy and exergy prices of various energy sources along with CO₂ equivalents are calculated and compared for residential and industrial applications in Turkey. Energy sources considered include coal, diesel oil, electricity, fuel oil, liquid petroleum gas (LPG), natural gas, heat pumps and geothermal, and their prices were obtained over a period of 18 months, from January 2008 to June 2009. For the residential and industrial sectors, minimum energy and exergy prices were found for ground source heat pumps, while maximum energy and exergy prices belong to LPG for both sectors.     

江西省CO2排放现状及减排对策分析

2010年,国家首次把单位GDP CO2排放下降17%作为约束性目标纳入"十二五"国民经济与社会发展规划,并提出合理控制能源消费总量的设想,这预示着未来国家在节能和减缓碳排放方面,将采取力度更大的措施。江西目前正处在工业化和城市化加快发展的关键时期,"十二五"社会经济发展对能源需求将保持在一个较高的水平,这必然导致CO2排放量持续增加,从而使碳减排工作面临巨大挑战。因此,深入探讨CO2排放发展趋势特征及影响变化的重要因素,对于制定我省各种能源政策、抑制CO2排放量、控制CO2排放强度具有十分重要的现实意义。     

Analysis of potential energy saving and CO2 emission reduction of home appliances and commercial equipments in China

China has implemented a series of minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) for over 30 appliances, voluntary energy efficiency label for 40 products, and a mandatory energy information label that covers 19 products to date. However, the impact of these programs and their savings potential has not been evaluated on a consistent basis. This paper uses modeling to estimate the energy saving and CO₂ emission reduction potential of the appliances standard and labeling program for products for which standards are currently in place, under development or those proposed for development in 2010 under three scenarios that differ in the pace and stringency of MEPS development. In addition to a baseline “frozen efficiency” scenario at 2009 MEPS level, the “Continued Improvement Scenario” (CIS) reflects the likely pace of post-2009 MEPS revisions, and the likely improvement at each revision step. The “Best Practice Scenario” (BPS) examined the potential of an achievement of international best-practice efficiency in broad commercial use today in 2014. This paper concludes that under “CIS”, cumulative electricity consumption could be reduced by 9503 TWh, and annual CO₂ emissions of energy used for all 37 products would be 16% lower than in the frozen efficiency scenario. Under a “BPS” scenario for a subset of products, cumulative electricity savings would be 5450 TWh and annual CO₂ emissions reduction of energy used for 11 appliances would be 35% lower.