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1.
Our goal in this article is to explain briefly what we believe to be the scientifically confirmed findings of climate change and what actions in our judgment are needed to forestall the worst impacts of a changing climate. Climate change is well documented by data and scientific observation. The global average temperature has already increased by more than 1°C (1.8°F) above preindustrial levels, and the impacts already felt are significant and encompass the entire globe. A 1°C increase in global temperature has resulted in increased melting of glaciers and the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets; higher frequency of more severe hurricanes; greater severity of droughts and forest fires; and extinction of selected species on land and in the sea, among other impacts. These are due largely to the extreme temperatures that accompany the higher mean temperature. There exist policies and cost‐effective technologies today that can achieve large reductions in carbon emissions. There is significant experience with all of the policies and technologies. R&D needs to be carried out on key new zero‐carbon technologies. Foremost among these technologies are electricity storage for large‐scale application in wind and solar power plants, batteries for electric vehicles, and zero‐carbon fuels for vehicles. Other than the (in our view limited but worthwhile) progress achieved through the Conference of the Parties meetings, especially the Paris Agreement, the world has not yet begun addressing climate change sufficiently to avoid very significant impacts. One early sign that the world has become serious about climate change will occur when oil and gas companies reduce and ultimately cease exploring for new resources. This article is categorized under:
- Energy and Climate > Climate and Environment
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Under the Paris Agreement, countries are to develop nationally determined contributions (NDCs) every 5 years, outlining their climate targets and plans. In order to ease this task, countries may use the experiences with the Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) program. In this paper, lessons with TNAs since 2001 are described, and it is analyzed how countries, with a focus on developing countries, may use these lessons in strengthening and implementing their successive NDCs. While some developing countries have already used the results of their TNA process in their NDC development, countries could benefit from following the TNA process, its stakeholder involvement, and the multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methodology, to strengthen their NDCs. Countries face challenges in their NDC with regard to the embedding of the contribution into the national development strategy, getting from plans to implementation, and the mobilization of finance. Through the positive and negative experiences with TNAs, countries can overcome these challenges. It is argued that all countries can use the TNA or parts thereof in their NDC process. For developing countries (mainly Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States) the TNA is useful for capacity building, strategy development, and the preparation of projects for investment with international support. Emerging markets and newly‐industrialized countries can use the TNA as a participatory approach for strategy development. Developed countries generally do not need the entire TNA process, but the participatory approaches and MCDA can be used to fine‐tune modeled strategies. This article is categorized under:
- Energy and Climate > Economics and Policy
- Energy and Climate > Climate and Environment
- Energy and Development > Climate and Environment
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中国2050年低碳情景和低碳发展之路 总被引:16,自引:4,他引:16
利用IPAC模型对我国未来中长期的能源与温室气体排放情景进行分析。设计了3个排放情景,介绍了情景的主要参数和结果,以及实现减排所需的技术,同时探讨中国实现低碳情景所需要的发展路径。作为一个经济快速增长国家,中国未来的能源需求和相应的温室气体排放将快速明显增加。中国要实现低碳发展路径,必须从现在就采取适合于低碳发展的政策,着重发展具有国际领先地位的重大清洁能源开发、转换和利用技术,大力发展可再生能源和核电技术,提高公众意识,使低碳生活方式成为普遍行为,逐步实施能源税和碳税。 相似文献
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基于对我国应对气候变化面临形势和世界主要国家应对气候变化策略的分析,阐述了我国应当把低碳发展作为应对气候变化策略的原因,提出了我国促进低碳发展战略的指导思想、战略目标,以及建设节约型社会、构建低碳型国民经济体系、构建低碳型消费模式和构建符合低碳发展要求的政府宏观调控体系等战略重点,进一步分析提出了完善节能减排约束性指标体系、尽快攻克煤炭清洁发电关键技术、以发展循环经济为抓手促进绿色经济发展等战略措施选择。 相似文献
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世界主要国家应对气候变化政策分析与启示 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
美国、欧盟、澳大利亚、日本等主要温室气体排放国家或地区为了应对气候变化,都制定了各自的温室气体排放控制目标。为了实现减排目标,各国(或地区)分别制定了应对全球气候变化的法律法规,建立了应对气候变化的碳排放交易体系,实施了各种气候变化税收政策。各国加大资金投入研究开发减缓气候变化的低碳技术,普遍对可再生能源的开发利用颁布了政策法令并建立气候变化资金。世界各主要国家或地区的应对气候变化的政策对完善我国气候变化政策框架体系有一定的启示。我国应加快建立温室气体统计制度,通过技术进步与财税政策促进节能降耗,大力发展可再生能源,降低对化石能源的依赖,建立应对气候变化专项科学基金和低碳技术基金。 相似文献
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杨元华 《电网与水力发电进展》2009,25(12):1-5
工业发达国家引领的工业革命创造了巨大的财富,但同时也对自然环境和物质文明造成了严重的破坏。气候变暖、生态失衡、环境污染这三个相互关联交织的现象已直接威胁着人类的生存。哥本哈根气候变化大会达成的《哥本哈根协议》在各方共同努力下,锁定共识,传承成果,明确方向,维护了全球应对气候变化大局和坚持“共同但有区别的责任”原则.就发达国家实行强制减排和发展中国家采取自主减缓行动做出了安排。发展低碳经济是应对气候变化的必由之路。我国城镇化健康可持续发展必须通过节能、提高能效、搞清洁煤的洁净化利用、发展可再生能源等措施,才可实现经济的低碳化。时代在变革,世界在发展。应对气候变化不仅是人类生存的需要,也是时代要求变革的呼唤。 相似文献
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节能减排 走向低碳经济的第一步 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
叙述了当前气候变化在于自然和人类的双重影响。指出,当前CO2排放的形势严峻,但中国高耗能工业节能技术有了长足的进步。提出,节能减排,发展循环经济是走向低碳经济的第一步。 相似文献
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为了应对气候变化愈加严峻的负面影响和更有效控制温室气体排放,《联合国气候变化框架公约》下的国际谈判进程中各方正致力于在2015年达成一个新的协议(简称2015协议),以推动2020年后的国际气候合作.自2011年德班大会之后,各缔约方围绕着新协议展开了密集的磋商和探讨,对新协议的目标、原则、框架和元素形成了一定的共识,但在弥补各国减排目标与2℃温升控制目标的差距、落实“共同但有区别的责任”原则、保障各国承诺的长期有效性、平衡推进减缓、适应、资金和技术支持等各个要素以及国家自主贡献等问题上仍有分歧,目前各方对达成2015协议有强烈的政治意愿,按期达成协议的前景比较乐观.应对气候变化国际合作和谈判是一个长期的过程,2015协议只是其中重要的里程碑之一. 相似文献
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欧盟在发展低碳经济的背景下通过制定具体且严格的温室气体减排和可再生能源发展目标,大力推广各种低碳能源技术的应用,积极倡导低碳化的能源转型。欧盟能源转型的理念和行动已成为各国制定能源政策的重要参考,并引领了当前全球能源转型的主流发展方向。本文在对欧盟各国能源转型战略进行梳理的基础上,归纳了各国能源转型的核心及关键措施,分析了欧盟低碳能源发展迅速的主要原因,并总结了欧盟能源转型对我国推进能源生产和消费革命的启示。 相似文献
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Climate sensitivity of marine energy 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Marine energy has a significant role to play in lowering carbon emissions within the energy sector. Paradoxically, it may be susceptible to changes in climate that will result from rising carbon emissions. Wind patterns are expected to change and this will alter wave regimes. Despite a lack of definite proof of a link to global warming, wind and wave conditions have been changing over the past few decades. Changes in the wind and wave climate will affect offshore wind and wave energy conversion: where the resource is constrained, production and economic performance may suffer; alternatively, stormier climates may create survival issues. Here, a relatively simple sensitivity study is used to quantify how changes in mean wind speed—as a proxy for wider climate change—influence wind and wave energy production and economics. 相似文献
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We consider the impact of climate change on the wind energy resource of Ireland using an ensemble of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations. The RCM dynamically downscales the coarse information provided by the Global Climate Models (GCMs) and provides high resolution information, on a subdomain covering Ireland. The RCM used in this work is the Rossby Center's RCM (RCA3). The RCA3 model is evaluated by performing simulations of the past Irish climate, driven by European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts ERA‐40 data, and by comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCA3 model exhibits reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical wind data record. For the investigation of the influence of the future climate under different climate scenarios, the Max Plank Institute's GCM, European Center Hamburg Model, is used to drive the RCA3 model. Simulations are run for a control period 1961‐2000 and future period 2021‐2060. The future climate was simulated using the four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1 and B2. The results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in the energy content of the wind for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The projected changes for summer and winter were found to be statistically significant over most of Ireland. However, the projected changes should be viewed with caution since the climate change signal is of similar magnitude to the variability of the evaluation and control simulations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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André Frossard Pereira de Lucena Alexandre Salem Szklo Roberto Schaeffer Raquel Rodrigues de Souza Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba Isabella Vaz Leal da Costa Amaro Olimpio Pereira Júnior Sergio Henrique Ferreira da Cunha 《Energy Policy》2009
Energy supply in Brazil relies heavily on renewable energy source. The production of energy from renewable sources, however, greatly depends on climatic conditions, which may be impacted in the future due to global climate change (GCC). This paper analyzes the vulnerabilities of renewable energy production in Brazil for the cases of hydropower generation and liquid biofuels production, given a set of long-term climate projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios. The most important result found in this study is the increasing energy vulnerability of the poorest regions of Brazil to GCC. Both biofuels production (particularly biodiesel) and electricity generation (particularly hydropower) may negatively suffer from changes in the climate of those regions. Other renewable energy sources—such as wind power generation—may also be vulnerable, raising the need for further research. However, the results found are fundamentally dependent on the climate projections which, in turn, are still highly uncertain with respect to the future evolution of greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and GCC. Therefore, in such long-term scenario analyses, the trends and directions derived are the ones to be emphasized rather than the precise results one arrives. 相似文献
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交通运输是我国碳排放最大的领域之一,在碳达峰、碳中和目标下,如何构建以能源互联网为基础的新型交通能源综合系统是我国交通运输领域低碳转型的重要命题。 文章聚焦公路交通能源综合系统,对我国新型公路交通能源综合系统的发展目标、政策背景等进行梳理,并讨论其创新与启示。 我国新型公路交通能源综合系统围绕“交通能源-交通经济-交通低碳”的多目标需求,目前已发展出充换电、“光储充”一体、“油气氢电光充储”等多种交通能源综合服务商业模式,相应的协同规划与建设、运行与控制、先进储能、多级协调能源管理等关键技术也正在逐渐发展,但还面临规划、运营、环保等多方面问题,后期应通过扩大市场宣传、破除体制机制障碍、加强技术协同等方式引导新型公路交通能源综合系统快速发展。 探讨我国面向未来的新型公路交通能源综合系统,为我国交通运输领域高质量发展提供一份思考。 相似文献
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The Middle East region is a key player in the world energy market today. It holds approximately over 50% of the world's proven fossil fuel reserves. Yet, the region is significantly challenged by the large dependence on finite fossil fuel resources in its primary energy supply. The intricate relationship between climate change mitigation and the development of energy systems underlines great uncertainty over the future of energy development in the Middle East. Such uncertainty is greatly linked to growing energy demands and the region's capacity to transition to low‐carbon energy systems. Over the past 20 years, the total primary energy demand in the Middle has almost tripled due to rapid population growth and economic development. Notably, most of the growing energy demand was concentrated in 5 countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. These 5 countries represented around 82% of the total primary energy demand in 2015, with Saudi Arabia and Iran alone accounted for 60%. The core question of this paper is what are the possible implications of growing energy demands in these countries and which sectors will entail significant increases in the projected energy requirements? The significance of the work presented here stems from analyzing 4 major countries that constitute the largest share in Middle East's total energy consumption and associated emissions. Examining these 4 countries together is important to highlight how future increase in these countries could largely affect the overall energy demand from the Middle East region in the next 20 years. Thus, the scope of the paper is looking at energy demand implications in 4 countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Iraq is excluded from the analysis due to the large political uncertainty associated with Iraq's energy development. Here, a regression model is used to forecast energy demand from 5 economic sectors across the 4 countries using projected increase in population and gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Results indicate that most of the projected energy demand will be from Iran and Saudi Arabia. In addition, industry and transportation sectors will witness the largest increase among the 5 sectors examined in the paper. For instance, industry and transportation sector will collectively account for 52% and 67% of the projected energy demand in Iran and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Such results are important to highlight when ascertaining sectoral level implications of future energy demands and to determine potential areas where energy savings can be made. 相似文献
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The financial institutions have in recent years been progressively awakening to a severe threat inherent in human-enhancement of the greenhouse effect. Insurance companies, and increasingly banks and pension funds, have come to fear that a warming world holds the danger of unmanageable property-catastrophe losses triggered by an increase in extreme climate-related events, plus a spectrum of major knock-on problems for debt and equity investments. This emerging greenhouse market-driver now has major implications for corporate strategy in both the financial and energy sectors. 相似文献
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We consider the impact of climate change on the wind energy resource of Ireland using an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCM used in this work is the Consortium for Small‐scale Modelling–climate limited‐area modelling (COSMO‐CLM) model. The COSMO‐CLM model was evaluated by performing simulations of the past Irish climate, driven by European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts ERA‐40 data, and comparing the output with observations. For the investigation of the influence of the future climate under different climate scenarios, the Max Planck Institute's global climate model, ECHAM5, was used to drive the COSMO‐CLM model. Simulations are run for a control period 1961–2000 and future period 2021–2060. To add to the number of ensemble members, the control and future simulations were driven by different realizations of the ECHAM5 data. The future climate was simulated using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, A1B and B1. The research was undertaken to consolidate, and as a continuation of, similar research using the Rossby Centre's RCA3 RCM to investigate the effects of climate change on the future wind energy resource of Ireland. The COSMO‐CLM projections outlined in this study agree with the RCA3 projections, with both showing substantial increases in 60 m wind speed over Ireland during winter and decreases during summer. The projected changes of both studies were found to be statistically significant over most of Ireland. The agreement of the COSMO‐CLM and RCA3 simulation results increases our confidence in the robustness of the projections. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献