Situation and measures of China’s CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emission mitigation after the Paris Agreement

Global response to climate change has entered the phase of full implementation of the Paris Agreement. To control the global temperature rise below 2°C, all countries must make more efforts to reduce emission. China has combined its goal of emission reduction for combating climate change with its domestic sustainable development strategy to promote energy revolution and the transition of economic development to low-carbon patterns. Through reinforcing the commitment and action before 2020, the CO₂ intensity of GDP can decrease by more than 50% by 2020 compared with that of 2005, and the external commitment target of a 40%–45% decrease can be over fulfilled. Currently, under the new economic normal, China further strengthens the policy measure, vigorously saves energy, enhances energy use efficiency and the economic output benefit, and simultaneously develops new and renewable energy and accelerates energy structural decarbonization, so that the annual decrease rate of the CO₂ intensity of GDP keeps a high level of more than 4% and remains increasing. Thus, the decrease rate of the CO₂ intensity of GDP will exceed the GDP growth rate, and then CO₂ emission will peak around 2030. This will promote the fundamental turning of economic development mode, and lay a foundation for the establishment of a sustainable energy system with near-zero emissions and with new and renewable energy as the main body in the second half of this century. China implements the concept of green low-carbon development and accelerates the low carbon transition of energy and economy to achieve win-win results in economic growth and CO₂ emission mitigation, and these policies and actions will also provide experiences for many other developing countries. On the other hand, China will continue to play a positive and constructive leading role in the implementation of the Paris Agreement internationally, and promote the construction of new mechanisms of win-win cooperation, fairness and justice and common development for global climate governance. Moreover, China will make an effort to build a community of common destiny for mankind, promote pragmatic cooperation among countries, especially among developing countries, and take combating climate change as a new development opportunity for jointly moving toward climate-friendly low-carbon economic development path.     

中国能源可持续发展评价指标体系构建与初步评价

能源可持续发展事关中国长期可持续发展的成败。为及时把握我国能源发展的状态趋势,实现在安全、经济、高效、低碳、清洁、公平各方面的均衡可持续发展,本文从中国经济社会可持续发展的基本需求和能源可持续发展的内涵出发,设计出中国能源可持续发展评价指标体系,并对2000～2010年中国能源可持续发展水平,以及2020年的能源情景进行了量化评价。研究结果将对我国能源战略决策具有重要支撑作用。     

China’s new growth pattern and its effect on energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions

China’s economic transformation and new growth pattern have significant implications for energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. Using an extended version of a large computable general equilibrium model of China, we explore alternative futures for the Chinese economy and its energy needs over the period from 2015 to 2030. The simulation results show that encouraging household consumption and accelerating economic transition from investment-led to service-led growth will boost China’s economic growth. Capping coal consumption will improve China’s energy consumption structure and reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly. The simulation exercises imply that, with a well-designed policy, the Chinese government can meet the challenges of strong economic growth, lower carbon emissions, environmental benefits, and energy security. Moreover, the Chinese government’s goal of peaking carbon emissions at 2030 is achievable.     

Developing low-carbon economy: Actions,challenges and solutions for energy savings in China

Global warming and financial crisis have brought severe threats to human existence and economic growth. Utilization of potential for energy savings is necessary for alleviating energy shortage, protecting environment and achieving sustainable economic and social development. This paper has not only comprehensively evaluated the China’s energy savings opportunities, but also systematically analyzed the primary challenges and deficiencies in China’s energy savings policies, and proposed targeted countermeasures and suggestions. This is of important guiding significance for China to establish a long-term effective mechanism to boost energy-saving technologies and products, and to promote the economic development toward a low-carbon mode.     

制约中国煤层气发展瓶颈问题及政策建议

天然气在中国一次能源结构中的比重远低于世界平均24％左右的水平,2019年天然气在中国一次能源消费结构中的比重为7.8％,优化能源结构、加快天然气的发展,已成为中国低碳经济发展的必选路径.中国煤层气资源量36.8万亿m3,但开采程度低,目前年产量88.8亿m3,发展潜力巨大.研究表明,中国煤层气发展面临地质条件复杂、适...     

工业锅炉行业应对变局的创新思维和实践

2020年,新冠疫情、中美对战和低碳能源革命的大变局叠加锅炉技术自身之变局将深刻影响工业锅炉行业和企业的未来.笔者根据多年从事锅炉技术及产学研合作的深切体会,建议工业锅炉行业从业者一定要转变思维方式,用一种学习和实践的态度重新认识自己、认识世界,重新审视低碳能源革命将给自己带来的前所未有的挑战和机会,谨慎选择,以有重点...     

中国区域能源转型与低碳发展战略及政策研究

能源转型与低碳发展是可持续发展的重要内容,需要多学科交叉研究的支持。研究能源发展与转型规划、城市绿色与低碳发展、体制机制的创新与应用是支撑区域落实经济发展方式向绿色低碳转型的战略性研究工作。本文梳理了中国能源战略工作的部分重点内容与发展方向、气候变化风险下城市低碳发展模式、体制机制创新需求和热点问题,并简介本课题组从事的一些区域能源转型与低碳发展过程中的战略性研究和体制机制创新工作。提出在全新技术革命时代,能源战略的理论研究和应用实践都存在创新需求;规划方法学和模型工具的开发、大数据挖掘和应用、变革性技术的预见和评估、跨学科和领域的协同战略规划等都是今后能源软科学研究亟待深化的方向。     

转型时代能源安全问题思考与中国方案

化石能源的利用弊端下能源安全问题日趋复杂化,成为全球共同的挑战。能源体系的清洁、低碳化转型是破解能源安全问题的关键,这主要是由于能源转型促进了三大转变,加强了能源安全:发展模式由资源依赖转向技术依赖,为共享的能源安全奠定了基础;能源生产由矿物开采转向装备制造,创造了新的经济机遇;能源消费进入电气化时代,保障了可持续能源安全。在此背景下,中国必须坚定能源转型的基本路线,正确把握能源安全的新形势,推动落实全球能源安全的“三大转变”,为国际社会,尤其是其他发展中国家提供必要的、可行的能源转型中国方案。     

中国经济发展与能源消费的现状分析及对策初探

能源是经济发展不可或缺的重要资源,能源依赖、能源高耗对我国经济运行的质量与速度造成一定的负面影响,亟待解决。文章对中国经济增长与能源消耗的现状进行了分析,从能源角度研究制约中国经济增长的瓶颈,针对中国经济增长与能源消耗的关系,从能源结构、能源市场、能源储备等方面探索具有针对性的对策建议,促进能源发展与经济社会的进步。     

创新金融市场 构建中国环境经济政策体系

叙述了创新金融市场对中国环境经济政策体系构建的作用和意义,建议通过建立绿色证券市场、设立低碳交易所、推动绿色上市公司建设,创新以环境为主导的新型金融政策体系。     

Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment framework

Emissions mitigation is a major challenge for China's sustainable development. We summarize China's successful experiences on energy efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of Energy Usage Management and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which are essential for low-carbon economy. In an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment (E4) framework, the paper studies the low-carbon development of China and gives an outlook of China's economy growth, energy–electricity demand, renewable power generation and energy conservation and emissions mitigation until 2030. A business-as-usual scenario is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy and electricity development path is studied. It is defined as low carbon energy/electricity when an economy body manages to realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy/electricity consumption, which can be characterized by indexes of energy/electricity intensity and emissions per-unit of energy consumption (electricity generation). Results show that, with EUM, China, could save energy by 4.38 billion ton oil equivalences (toes) and reduce CO₂ emission by 16.55 billion tons; with IRSP, China, could save energy by 1.5 Btoes and reduce CO₂ emission by 5.7 Btons, during 2010–2030. To realize the massive potential, China has to reshape its economic structure and rely much on technology innovation in the future.     

基于灰色关联理论的区域能源结构研究——以山东省为例

选取2001～2010年山东省原煤产量、原油产量、天然气产量、水电产量以及能源总产量的统计数据,采用灰色关联度分析模型进行分析.分析结果表明:与能源总产量关联度从大到小依次为原煤产量、天然气产量、原油产量、水电产量,分别为0.865、0.804、0.769、0.578;原煤占据山东省能源总产量的最大比重,这种严重依赖原煤的不合理能源结构制约了山东省未来实现低碳经济发展战略的目标;天然气发展迅速,在山东省能源结构中的比重将会越来越大;原油产量稳定不变,在能源结构中的比重下降;对新能源和可再生能源的开发利用不足.提出了改善山东省能源结构的建议和对策:优化能源结构,降低原煤在一次能源消费中的比例,逐步扩大原油、天然气以及新能源和可再生能源的开发和利用;调整产业结构,降低第二产业比例,大力发展现代服务业,积极培育战略性薪兴产业和低碳产业:加大风能、海洋能、太阳能等新能源和可再生能源产业的投资力度和政策倾斜;采用先进、成熟的节能技术提高能源生产效率、降低能源消耗.     

氢燃料电池汽车全球技术法规第二阶段火烧试验方法研究

近期,氢燃料电池汽车全球技术法规（UN GTR 13）第二阶段为提高火烧试验可重复性提出的新方法,将对中国氢燃料电池汽车的发展产生重大影响。该文在分析火烧试验结果可重复性问题的基础上,系统研究火烧试验新方法的主要内容、特点及其提出的技术理由,指出中国标准制定、试验设施和技术研究面临的挑战,并提出若干建议。     

新理念引领能源高质量发展

近两年在新发展理念引领下,能源高质量发展取得了显著成果。本文从能源生产、节能降耗、污染治理、技术创新、国际合作、体制改革等六个方面,系统阐述了能源在保障国家经济安全、支撑生态文明建设和应对气候变化、助力共建人类命运共同体等方面的卓越成绩。在建国70周年之际,展望了进一步深化能源革命、树立高质量发展“中国样本”的美好前景。     

新能源应用技术促进保定的节能减排

建设低碳城市,新能源产业是重要基础。叙述了保定依托中国电谷的发展在新能源应用方面具有的优越条件以及新能源技术在保定节能减排方面应用的具体效果,指出,新能源技术是低能耗、低排放、低污染的经济发展模式。保定在推动节能减排与低碳经济发展方面不仅具有自身特色,还具有深远意义。     

新能源应用技术促进保定的节能减排

建设低碳城市,新能源产业是重要基础。叙述了保定依托中国电谷的发展在新能源应用方面具有的优越条件以及新能源技术在保定节能减排方面应用的具体效果,指出,新能源技术是低能耗、低排放、低污染的经济发展模式。保定在推动节能减排与低碳经济发展方面不仅具有自身特色,还具有深远意义。     

汽车节油减排措施和政策

交通运输用油是影响我国石油消费量的重要因素．汽车的节油与燃料替代对降低石油需求起着关键性的作用．也是实现经济、社会和能源安全以及过渡到低碳经济的关键。汽车节油效果取决于国家的宏观政策。提高传统汽车能源效率、鼓励替代燃料和新能源汽车开发,以及采用智能运输系统、大力发展公共交通是节油减排的有效途径。提高汽车燃料使用效率．即开发节油型汽车、降低燃料消耗、淘汰油耗较高的老旧车型、提高柴油发动机所占比例等。整合强制性燃油经济性标识、标准和财政激励措施等独立的政策形成一揽子计划．通过相互协同作用来增强效果。替代燃料和新能源是石油燃料的有效补充,应加大投入力度。其中最有前景的是天然气、液化石油气等气体燃料。混合动力、纯电动汽车可借鉴国外先进技术,实现跨越式发展。氢燃料电池汽车应加大研发力度。充分利用智能运输系统和先进的物联网系统优化交通结构和货运行程,大力发展公共交通。     

The economic case for low-carbon development in rapidly growing developing world cities: A case study of Palembang,Indonesia

Where costs or risks are higher, evidence is lacking or supporting institutions are less developed, policymakers can struggle to make the case for low-carbon investment. This is especially the case in developing world cities where decision-makers struggle to keep up with the pace and scale of change. Focusing on Palembang in Indonesia, this paper considers the economic case for proactive investment in low-carbon development. We find that a rapidly growing industrial city in a developing country can reduce emissions by 24.1% in 2025, relative to business as usual levels, with investments of USD405.6 million that would reduce energy expenditure in the city by USD436.8 million. Emissions from the regional grid could be reduced by 12.2% in 2025, relative to business as usual trends, with investments of USD2.9 billion that would generate annual savings of USD175 million. These estimates understate the savings from reduced expenditure on energy subsidies and energy infrastructure. The compelling economic case for mainstreaming climate mitigation in this developing country city suggests that the constraints on climate action can be political and institutional rather than economic. There is therefore a need for more effective energy governance to drive the transition to a low-carbon economy.     

德班会议和我国面临的碳减排挑战

分析了在2011年年底的德班会议上三大阵营,即欧盟、伞形集团、"77国集团+中国",在国际气候合作中的表现以及我国在谈判中受到的压力和起到的积极作用。近年来,随着我国综合国力的快速上升,作为一个发展中国家的新兴市场大国,在许多国际问题的对话中获得了很大的话语权,但是在发达国家占主导地位的国际秩序中,我国面临的发展压力更加严峻,在德班会议上受到巨大的碳减排压力。我国必须继续加强新兴发展中大国的协调,共同争取在气候能源合作中应有的地位和话语权。建设低碳社会是时代的趋势,节能减排是我国可持续发展战略的重要组成部分,我国应把这种压力转化成动力,把低碳经济作为一个发展机遇,在进一步搞好节能减排工作的同时,促进清洁能源技术的发展,占领经济发展的国际战略高地。     

我国城市绿色低碳发展问题与挑战——以京津冀地区为例

城市化是推动我国经济和社会发展的主要动力,促进城市绿色、低碳发展是破解资源环境约束、加快转变发展方式、改善民生、应对全球气候变化的重要内容.本文以京津冀地区为例,分析了我国城市绿色低碳发展现状、存在问题、面临挑战等,提出城市化发展要优化区域和城市布局,构建系统优化的绿色、低碳能源供应系统,大幅提升能源利用效率,创新区域和城市管理体制机制,推动城市发展向绿色、低碳方向尽快转型.