日本是否会放弃核能——日本能源政策走向分析

能源作为日本震后经济社会发展的中长期政策大纲《日本再生基本战略》的主要支柱之一,日本能源政策的走向尤为值得关注.从短期看,日本将加大核能监管,继续扩大核电制造出口,完全弃核是不可能的;从长期看,日本会逐步降低核能在能源结构中的比例.由于核电的关停,造成日本电力供应不足,进而导致对火力发电政策的支持力度增强,未来对化石能源的依赖局面仍将持续.同时,由于核能政策的调整,一方面使得节能及提高能源使用效率成为新的支柱,另一方面可再生能源将成为重要的发展方向.近10年来,日本可再生能源占能源结构的比例一直没什么变化,约为10％,这与日本政府支持核能战略的政策导向不无关系.日本当前发展可再生能源的主要障碍是缺乏政府的长期政策扶持,其次是开发难度大、发电成本高、系统稳定性低.日本目前需要解决的课题包括全量购买制度等相关政策的导入,大幅度降低成本和解决稳定性关键技术,有效解决可再生能源利用的地域化差异等.总的来看,日本新的能源政策基本是围绕减少对核电的依赖和应对全球气候变暖来制定的.     

Renewable electricity in Sweden: an analysis of policy and regulations

This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in Sweden. It assesses the energy policy context, changes in the choice of policy instruments, and provides explanations behind policy successes and failures. Swedish renewable energy policy has been developing in a context of uncertainty around nuclear issues. While there has been made a political decision to replace nuclear power with renewables, there is a lack of consensus about the pace of phasing out nuclear power due to perceived negative impacts on industrial competitiveness. Such uncertainty had an effect in the formulation of renewable energy policy. Biomass and wind power are the main options for renewable electricity production. Throughout 1990s, the combined effect of different policy instruments has stimulated the growth of these two renewable sources. Yet, both biomass and wind power are still a minor contributor in the total electricity generation. Lack of strong government commitment due to uncertainty around nuclear issues is a crucial factor. Short-term subsidies have been preferred rather than open-ended subsidy mechanisms, causing intervals without subsidies and interruption to development. Other factors are such as lack of incentives from the major electricity companies and administrative obstacles. The taxation system has been successful in fostering an expansion of biomass for heating but hindered a similar development in the electricity sector. The quota system adopted in 2003 is expected to create high demand on biomass but does not favour wind power. The renewable energy aims are unlikely to be changed. Yet, the future development of renewable energy policies especially for high-cost technologies will again depend strongly on nuclear policies, which are still unstable and might affect the pace of renewable energy development.     

Between fragmented authoritarianism and policy coordination: Creating a Chinese market for wind energy

The Chinese grid-connected wind energy sector has undergone a number of fundamental changes during its 20 years of existence. The scope of this article is to track the reforms of the energy bureaucracy and its policy approach on the one hand and changes in wind energy installations on the other. By comparing three historically distinct phases of wind energy in China it is shown how policy reforms have changed largely from a state of “fragmented authoritarianism” towards policy coordination. In the initial phase (1986–1993), wind energy was expanding very slowly with disjointed policy making and in the incremental phase (1994–1999), the energy authorities were in dispute over the strategy and launched conflicting policy initiatives with poor results in wind energy output. The latest coordinated phase (2000–2006), however, developed a coherent renewable energy agenda and policy regime for the wind power sector. It is found that this phase with coordinated market regulations and incentives has helped give birth to a take-off in Chinese wind energy installations and substantial cost reductions, although the latter is threatening the profitability of wind farms. The article contributes to the academic debate over the role of policy making in renewable energy development and argues that China should continue, and improve, the coordination of regulations and incentives.     

福岛核危机后日本新能源格局的转变及其影响与启示

日本新能源的发展趋势会对全球的能源变革产生巨大作用。从第一次石油危机至今,日本的新能源无论是总量还是在能源结构中所占的份额都有了质的飞跃,这不仅是因为新能源的技术和设备有了长足进步,更重要的是来自日本政府能源政策的支持,但2011年的福岛核危机将彻底改变日本的能源格局。日本政府宣布将中止核电发展计划,可再生能源将成为下一步能源发展战略的核心。然而日本的规模化可再生能源过程也面临着如何弥补核电站退役后的电力缺口、国土面积狭小、电网网架薄弱以及因电价过高导致的巨额补贴费用等诸多困难。与此同时也给日本带来了新的发展机遇,可再生能源将成为日本经济新的增长点。日本核危机使全球核能遭遇低潮期,而可再生能源将迎来新的发展机遇,这有可能催生第三次产业革命。同时也认识到,能源来源的过于单一化使得能源风险加剧,需要建立健全的、快速的能源应急机制,加大国际间能源合作,突破能源技术壁垒。此次日本核危机促使中国反思自身的核电发展策略。中国具有丰富的可再生能源资源,当前应抓住这一发展机遇,加大产品技术含量,切勿盲目扩大生产规模,同时拓展非主流型可再生能源生产设备市场。政府要把握整体布局,避免出现区域性生产"过度"。     

Policy stakeholders and deployment of wind power in the sub-national context: A comparison of four U.S. states

As climate change mitigation gains attention in the United States, low-carbon energy technologies such as wind power encounter both opportunities and barriers en route to deployment. This paper provides a state-level context for examining wind power deployment and presents research on how policy stakeholders perceive wind energy in four states: Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, and Texas. Through semi-structured interviews, state-level energy policy stakeholders were asked to explain their perceptions of wind energy technology within their state. Interview texts were coded to assess how various drivers promote or hinder the deployment of wind power in sub-national contexts. Responses were dominated by technical, political, and economic frames in all four states, but were often driven by a very different rationale. Environmental, aesthetic, and health/safety frames appeared less often in the discourse. This analysis demonstrates that each state arrived at its current level of deployment via very different political, economic, and technical paths. In addition to helping explain why and how wind technology was – or was not – deployed in each of these states, these findings provide insight into the diversity of sub-national dialogues on deployment of low-carbon energy technologies.     

The socio-political economy of nuclear energy in China and India

This article investigates forms of social, political, and economic organization conducive to nuclear power expansion. We begin by developing a theoretical framework of nuclear socio-political economy based primarily upon the evolution of nuclear energy in France. This framework posits that (1) strong state involvement in guiding economic development, (2) centralization of national energy planning, (3) campaigns to link technological progress to a national revitalization, (4) influence of technocratic ideology on policy decisions, (5) subordination of challenges to political authority, and (6) low levels of civic activism are influential factors in supporting development of nuclear power. Accordingly, we seek to verify the causal properties of these six catalysts for nuclear power expansion in two nations – India and China – that are on the brink of becoming major nuclear powers. We validate our framework by confirming the presence of the six catalysts during the initial nuclear power developmental periods in each country. We also apply our framework as a predictive tool by considering how present conditions in the two nations will impact nuclear power development trends. We conclude by highlighting the emergence of a potential seventh catalyst – the influence of greenhouse gas emission abatement policy on nuclear power development.     

Cost of energy and environmental policy in Portuguese CO2 abatement—scenario analysis to 2020

This paper quantifies the contribution of Portuguese energy policies for total and marginal abatement costs (MAC) for CO₂ emissions for 2020. The TIMES_PT optimisation model was used to derive MAC curves from a set of policy scenarios including one or more of the following policies: ban on nuclear power; ban on new coal power plants without carbon sequestration and storage; incentives to natural gas power plants; and a cap on biomass use. The different MAC shows the policies’ effects in the potential for CO₂ abatement. In 2020, in the most encompassing policy scenario, with all current and planned policies, is possible to abate only up to +35% of 1990 emissions at a cost below 23 € t/CO₂. In the more flexible policy scenarios, it is possible to abate up to −10% of 1990 emissions below the same cost. The total energy system costs are 10–13% higher if all policies are implemented—76 to 101 B€—roughly the equivalent to 2.01–2.65% of the 2005 GDP. Thus, from a CO₂ emission mitigation perspective, the existing policies introduce significant inefficiencies, possibly related to other policy goals. The ban on nuclear power is the instrument that has the most significant effect in MAC.     

Improving policy making through government–industry policy learning: The case of a novel Swedish policy framework

Climate change poses an unprecedented challenge for policy makers. This paper analyzes how industry sector policy expertise can contribute to improved policy making processes. Previous research has identified that policy making benefit by including non-governmental policy analysts in learning processes. Recent climate and energy policy developments, including amendments and the introduction of new initiatives, have rendered current policy regimes as novel to both governments and the industry. This increases business investment risk perceptions and may thus reduce the effectiveness and efficiency of the policy framework. In order to explore how government–industry policy learning can improve policy making in this context, this article studied the Swedish case. A literature survey analyzed how policy learning had been previously addressed, identifying that the current situation regarding novel policies had been overlooked. Interviews provided how industrial actors view Swedish policy implementation processes and participatory aspects thereof. The authors conclude that an increased involvement of the industry sector in policy design and management processes can be an important measure to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of climate and energy policies.     

汽车行业萧条为推广环保混合动力车提供契机

日本在城市高速公路不断完善,汽车大众化进程使汽车保有量快速增长的同时,民众对控制汽车尾气排放的呼声也日益高涨,1978年日本国内开始实施相当于马斯基法（Muskie Act）的汽车尾气排放控制方案。上世纪70年代石油在日本一次能源供应量中大约占70％,为了降低对石油的依赖程度,日本加快了核能、天然气、煤炭等石油替代能源的发展。2007年日本运输部门所消耗的能源占耗能总量的23．3％,其中98％是汽油等石油燃料,为此日本汽车制造商开始进行环保车（主要为电动车）的研发。目前,在汽车行业总体销量同比下跌20％的情况下,日本汽车制造商乘环保车减税之际．加紧研发燃料电动车、电动车和插电式混合动力车以及新型的清洁柴油车。建议中国在开发环保车时要注意从生命周期评价来分析对环境的影响,同时借鉴日本和欧美制定优惠政策的经验。     

Trends of distributed generation development in Lithuania

The closure of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant, impact of recent global recession of the economy, as well as changes and problems posed by the global climate change require significant alterations in the Lithuanian energy sector development. This paper describes the current status and specific features of the Lithuanian power system, and in particular discusses the role of the distributed generators. Country's energy policy during last two decades was focused on substantial modernisation of the energy systems, their reorganisation and creation of appropriate institutional structure and necessary legal basis. The most important factors stimulating development of distributed generation in Lithuania are the following: international obligations to increase contribution of power plants using renewable energy sources into electricity production balance; development of small (with capacity less than 50 MW) cogeneration power plants; implementation of energy policy directed to promotion of renewable energy sources and cogeneration. Analysis of the legal and economic environment, as well as principles of regulation of distributed generation and barriers to its development is presented.     

Evaluation of lifecycle CO2 emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century under various nuclear scenarios

The status and prospects of the development of Japanese nuclear power are controversial and uncertain. Many deem that nuclear power can play key roles in both supplying energy and abating CO₂ emissions; however, due to severe nuclear accidents, public acceptance of nuclear power in Japan has not been fully obtained. Moreover, deregulation and liberalization of the electricity market impose pressure on large Japanese electric power companies with regard to both the operation of nuclear power plants and the development of the nuclear fuel cycle. Long-term Japanese CO₂ reduction strategies up to 2100 are of environmental concern and are socially demanded under the circumstances described above. Taking these factors into account, we set the following two objectives for this study. One is to estimate lifecycle CO₂ (LCCO₂) emissions from Japanese nuclear power, and the other is to evaluate CO₂ emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century by quantifying the relationship between LCCO₂ emissions and scenarios for the adoption of nuclear power. In the pursuit of the above objectives, we first create four scenarios of Japanese adoption of nuclear power, that range from nuclear power promotion to phase-out. Next, we formulate four scenarios describing the mix of the total electricity supply in Japan till the year 2100 corresponding to each of these nuclear power scenarios. CO₂ emissions from the electric power sector in Japan till the year 2100 are estimated by summing those generated by each respective electric power technology and LCCO₂ emission intensity. The LCCO₂ emission intensity of nuclear power for both light water reactors (LWR) and fast breeder reactors (FBR) includes the uranium fuel production chain, facility construction/operation/decommission, and spent fuel processing/disposal. From our investigations, we conclude that the promotion of nuclear power is clearly a strong option for reducing CO₂ emissions by the electric power sector. The introduction of FBR has the effect of further reducing CO₂ emissions in the nuclear power sector. Meeting energy demand and reducing CO₂ emissions while phasing out nuclear power appears challenging given its importance in the Japanese energy supply.     

福岛核危机对日本能源战略的影响及启示

至本世纪前10年,核能已成为日本能源供应中不可或缺的重要因素,然而,2011年因"东日本大地震"引发的福岛核危机却动摇了日本继续发展核能的信心,不得不对现有的能源战略进行调整。福岛核危机对日本原来制定的能源战略产生了巨大影响,其中包括能源战略目标难以实现,加剧了对化石燃料的依赖;造成大量的电力缺口,总发电量减少了1/4,导致消费者用电成本急剧增加;短期内不得不增加液化天然气、原油、燃料油和煤炭等化石能源的进口量,加剧了日本能源安全的不确定性。为了缓解福岛核危机所造成的一系列负面影响并保障能源安全,日本政府重新制定了能源战略——重点集中在去核能化,去核能化是顺应民意、安抚民心,并防止核事故再次发生的根本性战略,是日本的必然选择;同时高度重视可再生能源的发展,可再生能源发电比例将由2010年的10%跃升至2030年的35%,总发电量将由2010年的1100×108kW.h提高到2030年的3000×108kW.h;大力实施节约能源战略,提出2030年电力消耗量在2010年的基础上节约1100×108kW.h,能源消耗量在2010年的基础上节约720×108L;另外,日本政府还对电力系统进行改革。结合我国的能源战略及核电发展现状,日本的能源战略调整给予我国的启示包括:要将核安全置于首要地位、加速可再生能源发展和坚持节约能源战略。     

Review of Japan's power generation scenarios in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident

Following on from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Japanese government is now in the throes of reviewing its power policy. Under continuing policies of economic revival and greenhouse gas reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for the country to realize reliable, low‐carbon, and economic electricity systems in the future. On the other hand, the social acceptance of nuclear power will affect the final political decision significantly. Therefore, in the present study, proposed power generation scenarios in Japan in light of the Fukushima accident were reviewed comprehensively from economic, environmental, technological, resource, security, and social perspectives. The review concludes that in Japan, (i) renewable energy mainly solar and wind needs to be developed as fast as possible subject to various constraints, (ii) more gas power plants will be used to absorb the fluctuations of intermittent renewable energy and supply electricity gap, (iii) nuclear power will be reduced in the future, but a 0% nuclear power scenario by 2030 is unlikely to be a reasonable choice on most measures and (iv) the effective communication with the public is vital important. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Status and perspectives of renewable energy policy and deployment in the European Union—What is needed to reach the 2020 targets?

This article evaluates the status of current RES deployment, policies and barriers in the EU-27 member states and compares it to the required to meet the 2020 targets. The evaluation relies strongly on the quantitative deployment status and policy effectiveness indicators. European RES deployment and policy has progressed strongly in recent years, but the growth here has been mainly driven by effective policies in a small or medium number of top runner countries. Across Europe, the highest average policy effectiveness over six years was reached for onshore wind (4.2%), biofuels (3.6%) and biomass electricity (2.7%), while in the heat sector, all technologies score below 2%. Comparing the recent progress to the required growth for meeting the 2020 target, it appears that some countries largely exceed the interim targets of the RES Directive 2009/28/EC. Despite this, Europe will need additional policy effort to reach the 2020 target. Critical success factors include implementing effective and efficient policies that attract sufficient investments, reducing administrative and grid related barriers, especially in currently less advanced countries, upgrading the power grid infrastructure, dismantling financial barriers in the heat sector, realising sustainability standards for biomass, and lowering energy demand through increased energy efficiency efforts.     

Nucs down in Germany—Prices up in Europe?

Current legislation on power production from nuclear energy in Germany defines certain remaining quantities of permitted electricity production for nuclear power plants. These quantities are defined for each nuclear power plant and are measured in TWh. In the discussion about climate protection and market trend of electricity prices, it is regularly stated by policy makers that the nuclear phase-out will result in an increase in electricity prices and CO₂ emissions. As a consequence a revision is proposed, especially from the Liberals (FDP) and Conservatives (CDU). The following article discusses this issue analysing the different options investors and operators under different scenarios have. It shows firstly that both emissions and power prices can indeed increase, and secondly that the mere discussion about potentially reversing the phasing-out decision can lead to an increase in electricity prices as investment behaviour may change based on expectations regarding future regulation. I conclude that – ceteris paribus – the nuclear phase-out is likely to result in an increase in CO₂ emissions and prices.     

Energy supply,demand, and policy in Viet Nam,with future projections

This article provides background on the current status and recent trends of energy use in Viet Nam, as well as projections of energy demand and energy supply in the coming decades. The article summarizes the results of the current national Master Plan for developing the electricity supply sector to meet increasing electricity demand. Also described are the evolution and current status of Viet Nam’s energy policies, including those related to energy security, energy efficiency and conservation, the environment, and development of renewable energy sources, as well as strategies for power sector development and restructuring of the energy sector toward greater use of competitive energy markets. The initial phase of the Viet Nam energy sector modeling effort under the Asian Energy Security (AES) project is described. The final section of this article offers conclusions regarding the status of Viet Nam’s energy sector and policies, and recommendations regarding “next steps” in energy security analysis.     

Governmental policy and prospect in electricity production from renewables in Lithuania

In Lithuania, the generation of electricity is based on the nuclear energy and on the fossil fuels. After the decommissioning of Ignalina nuclear power plant in 2009, the Lithuanian Power Plant and other thermal plants will become the major sources of electricity. Consequently, the Lithuanian power sector must focus on the implementation of renewable energy projects, penetration of new technologies and on consideration of the future opportunities for renewables, and Government policy for promoting this kind of energy. Production of electricity from renewable energy is based on hydro, biomass and wind energy resources in Lithuania. Due to the typical climatic condition in Lithuania the solar photovoltaics and geothermal energy are not used for power sector. Moreover, the further development of hydropower plants is limited by environmental restrictions, therefore priority is given to wind energy development and installation of new biomass power plants. According to the requirements set out in the Directive 2001/77/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 September 2001 on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market [Official Journal L283, 33–40, 27 October 2001], 7% of gross consumption of electricity will be generated from renewable energy by 2010 in Lithuania. The aim of this paper is to show the estimation of the maximum renewable power penetration in the Lithuanian electricity sector and possible environmental impact.     

中国电力可持续发展的出路和方向

中国2008年能源消费总量28．5×10^8t标煤,其中煤炭消费量27．4×10^8t,原油消费量3．6×110^8t,天然气消费量807×10^8m^3．电力消费量34502×10^8kW·h。中国电力工业在节能减排的推动下发展,2008年全国供电单耗349g标煤／（kW·h）,同比下降7g标煤／（kW·h）,线损率6．64％,同比下降0．33个百分点,关停小火电1669×10^4kW。2009年国家能源新政给电力行业发展带来新的契机,2009年电力投资5800亿元,电力工业结构调整列在2009年中国能源新政任务的首位。中同新能源发电已进入全新发展期：核电将成为取代常规火电的主力军;风电潜力大,发展速度惊人,但问题也不少：水电发电量居世界第一,但仍存在制约水电发展的问题;太阳能光伏发电发展迅速,前景看好。     

Consumer–supplier–government triangular relations: Rethinking the UK policy path for carbon emissions reduction from the UK residential sector

The UK residential (household) sector is responsible for approximately 30% of total carbon dioxide emissions and is often seen as the most promising in terms of early reductions. As most direct household emissions come from only two fuel sources, this paper critically examines how existing emissions reduction policies for the sector shape – and are shaped by – relations between the three main groups of actor in this policy domain: central government, gas and electricity suppliers, and energy users. Focusing on relations between three dyads (government–suppliers, suppliers–consumers and consumers–government) enables us to examine aspects of demand reduction that have often been overlooked to date. By ‘relations’ we refer to services, power relationships and flows of capital and information, as well as less easily defined elements such as loyalty, trust and accountability. The paper argues that the chosen government policy path to deliver demand reduction, which heavily emphasises the suppliers’ role, suffers from principal-agent problems, fails to align consumers and supplier interests toward emissions reduction, and does not yet portray a lower-carbon future in positive terms. It suggests that more attention should be paid to government–consumer relations, recognising that energy consumers are also citizens.