Market power analysis for the Iranian electricity market

The market power problem in Iranian electricity market is addressed in this study. This paper by using various structural indices of market power and reviewing market results analyzes the intensity of competition in Iran’s electricity market and examines whether this market is functioning at an appropriate level of efficiency. In this article the most well-known indices of market power are calculated in two approaches for two different scenarios (current situation and future outlook of generation sector’s ownership in Iran’s power industry). Comparing the results of these scenarios promises more competitive market for the second scenario. Calculating Residual Supply Index for Iran’s power market shows despite admissible values of concentration ratios, due to supply scarcity during periods when the demand is close to the total available capacity, some suppliers can exercise market power even with a relatively small market share. The most important price and load indices like weighted average prices and load/price duration curves of Iranian electricity market during March 2007–March 2008 are also analyzed in this paper. These results imply the existence of economic withholding. The main limiting factors of competition and significant implemented countermeasures for market power mitigation in Iran’s electricity market are also mentioned.     

中国实施电力市场的可行性探讨

介绍了中国电力市场的发展过程和现状,探讨了中国实施电力市场的可能性,通过国内外电力体制发展趋势的观察,总结出了我国电力市场未来发展的三个阶段。     

Rural energy survey and scenario analysis of village energy consumption: A case study in Lao People’s Democratic Republic

In developing countries, providing all citizens an access to modern forms of energy is among the central energy policy objectives, as the linkages between modern energy services and human development are widely recognized. This paper presents in a scenario analysis of rural energy consumption, how energy services in different sectors of a village economy contribute to the achievement of the UNDP Millennium Development Goals. In a rural village in Lao People’s Democratic Republic, household energy demand and energy uses were surveyed immediately prior to the electrification of the village. Based on the situation preceding electrification of the village, the development of village electrification was studied by simulating the village energy system, accounting for all village energy uses but transportation. To study the potential development of electricity demand in the village, three scenarios were constructed using the LEAP model: “residential demand”, “income generation” and “public services”. Energy demand in each scenario was analyzed with reference to the Millennium Development Goals.     

Geothermal slim holes for small off-grid power projects

Economically viable, small (100 kW_e to 1000 kW_e), geothermal power generation units using slim holes are available for the production of electrical power in remote areas and for rural electrification in developing countries. Based on borehole data from geothermal fields in the United States and Japan, slim holes have been proven as adequate fuel sources for small-scale geothermal power plants (SSGPPs) and can deliver enough geothermal fluid to the wellhead in a baseload mode to be of practical interest for off-grid electrification projects. The electrical generating capacity of geothermal fluids which can be produced from typical slim holes (150-mm diameter or less), both by conventional, self-discharge, flash-steam methods for hotter geothermal reservoirs, and by binary-cycle technology with downhole pumps for low- to moderate-temperature reservoirs are estimated using a simplified theoretical approach. Depending mainly on reservoir temperature, the numerical simulations indicate that electrical capacities from a few hundred kilowatts to over one megawatt per slim hole are possible. In addition to the advantage of price per kilowatt-hour in off-grid applications, SSGPPs fueled by slim holes are far more environmentally benign than fossil-burning power plants, which is crucial in view of current worldwide climate-change concerns and burgeoning electricity demand in the less-developed and developing countries.     

风电与燃气轮机互补发电系统发电成本分析

在采用风电场与小型燃气轮机组成的互补系统发电特性参数的基础上,详细分析了互补系统发电成本的构成和各自的计算方法。采用新疆达坂城风电场的风速数据,基于互补系统的发电特性参数和风电场与燃气轮机电站的发电成本构成,应用改进过的等额支付折算法,在当前的技术条件和价格下,计算了风电场子系统和燃气轮机电站子系统各自的折旧成本、燃料成本和运行维护成本,得到了整滚发电系统发电成本的计算方法,为在新疆地区实现这种互补发电系统提供经济分析基础。     

Modeling market power in Korea's emerging power market

The Korean power market is being formed from the unbundled generation, transmission and distribution assets of Korea Electric Power Corporation. The KEPCO generation has been allocated to six independent gencos with a combined generating capacity of 46,629 MW in 2002. This gave an 11% margin over the peak load that year (41,921 MW).     

Consequential environmental system analysis of expected offshore wind electricity production in Germany

Taking advantage of offshore wind power appears to be of special significance for the climate protection plans announced by the German Federal Government. For this reason, a comprehensive system analysis of the possible CO₂ reduction including the consideration of all relevant processes has to be performed. This goal can be achieved by linking a life-cycle assessment model of offshore wind utilisation with a stochastic model of the German electricity market. Such an extended life-cycle assessment shows that the CO₂ emissions from the construction and operation of wind farms are low compared with the substitution effects of fossil fuels. Additionally, in the German electricity system, offshore wind energy is the main substitute for medium-load power plants. CO₂ emissions from the modified operation and the expansion of conventional power plants reduce the CO₂ savings, but the substitution effect outweighs these emissions by one order of magnitude. The assumptions of the model, shown here to be above all CO₂ certificate prices, have a considerable influence on the figures shown due to a significant effect on the future energy mix.     

Market power in the European electricity market—The impacts of dry weather and additional transmission capacity

This paper uses a static computational game theoretic model of a fully opened European electricity market and can take strategic interaction among electricity-producing firms into account. The model is run for a number of scenarios: first, in the baseline under perfect competition, the prices differ due to the presence of various generation technologies and a limited ability to exchange electricity among countries. In addition, when large firms exercise market power, the model runs indicate that prices are the highest in countries where the number of firms is low. Second, dry weather would increase the prices in the hydro-rich Nordic countries followed by the Alpine countries. The price response would be about 20% higher with market power. Third, more transmission capacity would lower the prices in countries with high prices and it also reduces the impact of market power. Hence, more transmission capacity can improve market competitiveness.     

Life cycle cost analysis of electricity storage facilities in flexible power systems

Global efforts towards de-carbonization have opened the pathway for a test environment of electrical energy storage (EES) topology. In this work, the feasibility of 17 EES facilities applied to 24 individual applications of flexible power networks has been investigated in terms of levelized cost of storage (LCOS) in $/kW. Electricity storage facilities were modelled and evaluated via a life-cycle cost analysis, based on the most realistic EES characteristics and practical applications’ requirements. The results showed that pumped-hydro constitutes the least-cost and most reliable system for large-scale/long-duration applications. Zn-air and vanadium redox (VRB) offer great potential in demand-shifting and reactive support but, due to their wide LCOS range, considerable risk is added in such an investment. Electrochemical double-layer capacitor (EDLC) holds almost the exclusivity in fast-response/frequently-cycled applications, while for medium-term/medium-scale applications and where the large footprint is a prohibitive factor, valve-regulated Pb-acid (VRLA) and hydrogen fuel cells (H₂-FC) are more favourable options. However, efficient tools still lack the ability of quantifying all benefits derived from electricity storage, maintaining stakeholders’ concerns for investment. It is apparent that, further research and development implies the decrease of the uncertainty governing the majority of EES technologies, increasing EES implementations and vice versa.     

Renewable electricity production costs—A framework to assist policy-makers' decisions on price support

Despite recent progress, the production costs for renewable electricity remain above those for conventional power. Expectations of continuous reductions in production costs, typically underpin governments' policies for financial support. They often draw on the technology-focused versions of the Experience Curve model. This paper discusses how national-contextual factors also have a strong influence on production costs, such as geographic, infrastructural, institutional, and resource factors. As technologies mature, and as they reach significant levels of diffusion nationally, sustained increases in production costs might be recorded, due to these nationally contextual factors, poorly accounted for in policy-making decisions for price support. The paper suggests an analytical framework for a more comprehensive understanding of production costs. Based on this, it recommends that the evolution of specific cost levels and factors be monitored to locate ‘sources of changes’. The paper also suggests policy instruments that governments may use to facilitate cost decreases, whenever possible. The application of the framework is illustrated for the diffusion of wind power in Spain during the past three decades.     

Modelling of hydrogen production from hydrogen sulfide in geothermal power plants

Geothermal power plants emit high amount of hydrogen sulfide (H₂S). The presence of H₂S in the air, water, soils and vegetation is one of the main environmental concerns for geothermal fields. There is an increasing interest in developing suitable methods and technologies to produce hydrogen from H₂S as promising alternative solution for energy requirements. In the present study, the AMIS technology is the invention of a proprietary technology (AMIS^® - acronym for “Abatement of Mercury and Hydrogen Sulfide” in Italian language) for the abatement of hydrogen sulphide and mercury emission, is primarily employed to produce hydrogen from H₂S. A proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer operates at 150 °C with gaseous H₂S sulfur dimer in the anode compartment and hydrogen gas in the cathode compartment. Thermodynamic calculations of electrolysis process are made and parametric studies are undertaken by changing several parameters of the process. Also, energy and exergy efficiencies of the process are calculated as % 27.8 and % 57.1 at 150 °C inlet temperature of H₂S, respectively.     

A renewable energy scenario for Aalborg Municipality based on low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass

Aalborg Municipality, Denmark, wishes to investigate the possibilities of becoming independent of fossil fuels. This article describes a scenario for supplying Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through a combination of low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass. Of particular focus in the scenario is how low-temperature geothermal heat may be utilised in district heating (DH) systems. The analyses show that it is possible to cover Aalborg Municipality’s energy needs through the use of locally available sources in combination with significant electricity savings, heat savings, reductions in industrial fuel use and savings and fuel-substitutions in the transport sector. With biomass resources being finite, the two marginal energy resources in Aalborg are geothermal heat and wind power. If geothermal heat is utilised more, wind power may be limited and vice versa. The system still relies on neighbouring areas as an electricity buffer though.     

The potential role of concentrated solar power (CSP) in Africa and Europe—A dynamic assessment of technology development,cost development and life cycle inventories until 2050

Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants are one of several renewable energy technologies with significant potential to meet a part of future energy demand. An integrated technology assessment shows that CSP plants could play a promising role in Africa and Europe, helping to reach ambitious climate protection goals. Based on the analysis of driving forces and barriers, at first three future envisaged technology scenarios are developed. Depending on the underlying assumptions, an installed capacity of 120 GW_el, 405 GW_el or even 1,000 GW_el could be reached globally in 2050. In the latter case, CSP would then meet 13–15% of global electricity demand. Depending on these scenarios, cost reduction curves for North Africa and Europe are derived. The cost assessment conducted for two virtual sites in Algeria and in Spain shows a long-term reduction of electricity generating costs to figures between 4 and 6 ct/kWh_el in 2050. The paper concludes with an ecological analysis based on life cycle assessment. Although the greenhouse gas emissions of current (solar only operated) CSP systems show a good performance (31 g CO₂-equivalents/kWh_el) compared with advanced fossil-fired systems (130–900 CO₂-eq./kWh_el), they could further be reduced to 18 g CO₂-eq./kWh_el in 2050, including transmission from North Africa to Europe.     

The relationship between coal and nuclear power for electricity production: A strategy for electricity production in France

In France, electricity is produced mainly from domestic and imported coal and from nuclear power. Investments are cheapest in coal-fired plants, but coal is more expensive. Therefore, every producer must balance production between coal-fired and nuclear plants; the more expensive the coal is, the more attractive nuclear power becomes.     

A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context.     

Impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market: A scenario analysis

This paper presents an assessment of the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market during two periods: the first phase (2005–2007) and the second phase (2008–2012). A market-equilibrium model is used in order to analyze different conditions faced by generation companies. Scenarios involving CO₂-emission prices, hydro conditions, demand, fuel prices and renewable generation are considered. This valuation will show the significance of CO₂-emission prices as regards Spanish and Portuguese electricity prices, generation mix, utilities profits and the total CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, the results will illustrate how energy policies implemented by regulators are critical for Spain and Portugal in order to mitigate the negative impact of the Kyoto Protocol. In conclusion, the Iberian electricity system will not be able to reach the Kyoto targets, except in very favorable conditions (CO₂-emission prices over €15/ton and the implementation of very efficient energy policies).     

Market diffusion strategies for the PEM fuel cell-based micro-CHP systems in the residential sector: scenario analysis

At present, one of the most prominent support mechanisms for sustainable energy is implementing Feed-in Tariffs. This study analyzes Feed-in Tariffs for distributed electricity generation in Iran and Feed-in Tariffs for electricity generated by fuel cells in other countries. Based on reviews of the regulations and the support plans for renewable energy development, CHP generators, and fuel cells, four scenarios were designed for pricing the electricity generated from the fuel cells and how to support its market development. Based on these scenarios, the Feed-in Tariffs of electricity from fuel cells or the expected amount of support for each fuel cell unit was calculated. In the case of using a production tax credit (PTC) model, assuming the total export of the generated electricity to the grid, the cost per kilowatt-hour of electricity varied by 9.89–60.78 cent/kWh based on the utilization of different PEM fuel cell products of different companies. Using Iran's small-scale generator support guideline, the electricity generation cost was calculated between 7.032 and 57.921 cents/kWh.     

Investment prospects for geothermal power in El Salvador''s electricity market

A mixed-integer optimizing programming model was created to simulate capacity expansion for the electricity market in El Salvador. Various demand scenarios were constructed, under which capacity expansion alternatives were tested. Results showed that possible geothermal projects were able to meet the growing energy needs of El Salvador, while yielding relatively low prices for the end-user. A best case projection for 2020 showed an increased proportion of geothermal generation in the energy mix by 6% compared to the present mix.

Much of the current generating plants and planned capacity are distanced from the load center, San Salvador. In order to meet the country's increasing demand, it was found that generating capacity investment should be accompanied by transmission upgrades. Even when current conditions were simulated, transmission congestion appeared to be present. Results from some expansion scenarios showed that transmission congestion increased nodal prices despite the addition of further generating capacity.     

A comparative analysis of renewable electricity support mechanisms for Southeast Asia

This study evaluates the applicability of eight renewable electricity policy mechanisms for Southeast Asian electricity markets. It begins by describing the methodology behind 90 research interviews of stakeholders in the electricity industry. It then outlines four justifications given by respondents for government intervention to support renewables in Southeast Asia: unpriced negative externalities, counteracting subsidies for conventional energy sources, the public goods aspect of renewable energy, and the presence of non-technical barriers. The article develops an analytical framework to evaluate renewable portfolio standards, green power programs, public research and development expenditures, systems benefits charges, investment tax credits, production tax credits, tendering, and feed-in tariffs in Southeast Asia. It assesses each of these mechanisms according to the criteria of efficacy, cost effectiveness, dynamic efficiency, equity, and fiscal responsibility. The study concludes that one mechanism, feed-in tariffs, is both the most preferred by respondents and the only one that meets all criteria.