Global energy security and the implications for the EU

The following article will analyse the global and geopolitical dimensions of the future international energy security and its implications for Europe and the EU-27. In this context, I will discuss to which extent the EU's newly proclaimed “Energy Action Plan” of the EU Spring summit of 2007 and its declared common energy (foreign) policy are a sufficient strategy to cope with the new global and geopolitical challenges. The article concludes the following: (1) The interlinkage between globally designed traditional energy security concepts – that rely just on economic factors and “market-strategies” – and domestic as well as regional political stability demands new thinking with regard to both energy supply security and foreign and security policies. (2) Although after the Russian–Ukrainian gas conflict in January 2006, energy security has forced its way up the European energy and foreign policy agendas, the EU-27 member states have largely failed to forge a coherent European energy security and energy foreign policy strategy after their Spring summit of 2007 because its declared political solidarity has been still lacking. But the 2nd Strategic Energy Review of November 2008 has recommended new initiatives to overcome this lack by promoting concrete infrastructure and other projects for enhancing Europe's supply security and its political solidarity as part of a common energy (foreign) policy. If the EU is able to implement the March 2007 and November 2008 decisions, the EU oil and gas demand will drastically reduce and freeze at current levels. In this case, Putin's energy policies by using Russia's energy resources and pipeline monopolies as a political instrument to enforce its economic and geopolitical interests will be proved as self-defeating in Russia's long-term strategic interests. It will reduce Gazprom's gas exports to a much smaller EU gas market than originally forecasted as the result of a deliberate EU policy of decreasing its overall gas demand and by diversifying its gas imports.     

The security of gas supply—a critical issue for Europe?

Gas is competing with oil for being the dominant energy source. In electricity generation gas is to play as pivotal a role as oil in transportation. The security equation of gas and electricity become unseparably interrelated. Energy disruptions have considerable influence on the national accounts far beyond the direct cost of market participants (asymmetry). The present gas supply to the EU depends dangerously on too few sources and venues. There is a decided lack of optionality. The EU directly or through its members needs a clear proactive policy on “Security of Gas Supply” with a strong multilateral direction. The measures developed for the oil industry over the last 30 years can at least serve as a starting point for a constructive debate. When discussing security of supply dependence it is useful to clearly define the various risks one wishes to protect against. Free riders relying on alternative fuels without participating in their security systems are not permissible.     

Policy progress in mitigation of climate change in Taiwan

To make an active contribution to the global effort in mitigation of climate change, Taiwan government has implemented the “Frameworks for Sustainable Energy Policy—An Energy-Saving and Carbon-Reduction Action Plan” in June 2008. It has made a commitment of a stepwise reduction of nationwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which returns the nationwide GHG emission to 2008 levels by 2020, then reduces to 2000 levels by 2025, and finally cuts 50% of 2000 levels by 2050. The fundamental strategy is to reduce the GHG emission under acceptable economic development and energy security to achieve generation-spanning triple-win in energy, environment and economy. The major policy instruments such as “Statute for Renewable Energy Development”, “GHG Reduction Law (draft),” “Regulation for Energy Tax (draft),” and “Energy Management Act” have been either implemented or scheduled for legislative reviewing. The purpose of this paper is to present an updated review of the outcomes of GHG emission reduction in Taiwan. In addition, the progress and priority of policy instruments in GHG emission reduction are analyzed as well.     

Energy supply,demand, and policy in Viet Nam,with future projections

This article provides background on the current status and recent trends of energy use in Viet Nam, as well as projections of energy demand and energy supply in the coming decades. The article summarizes the results of the current national Master Plan for developing the electricity supply sector to meet increasing electricity demand. Also described are the evolution and current status of Viet Nam’s energy policies, including those related to energy security, energy efficiency and conservation, the environment, and development of renewable energy sources, as well as strategies for power sector development and restructuring of the energy sector toward greater use of competitive energy markets. The initial phase of the Viet Nam energy sector modeling effort under the Asian Energy Security (AES) project is described. The final section of this article offers conclusions regarding the status of Viet Nam’s energy sector and policies, and recommendations regarding “next steps” in energy security analysis.     

Security concerns in the Middle East for oil supply: Problems and solutions

Comprising 65–70% of the world's oil reserves, the Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE and Qatar) are key countries for the solutions to the energy supply matters of the world. Free flow of oil to the world markets from Gulf region is an indispensable part of the major security issues. The Middle East has had mainly security related problems such as Arab–Israeli wars and conflicts, Arab–Iranian war and conflicts, Arab–Arab war and conflicts, US–Gulf wars and conflicts and more recently radicalism and terrorist attacks. Energy supply security requires the enhancement of the peace and cooperation between countries instead of competition. Preventive policy approaches are more suitable to address energy supply matters. Preventive strategy might be possible with the active participation of NATO within the “out of area” type operations to the Middle East and quite possibly indirectly to the Asia-Pacific regions. Religious and ethnic radicalism and terrorist attacks has also direct effects over oil supply security matters.     

Long-term energy consumptions of urban transportation: A prospective simulation of “transport–land uses” policies in Bangalore

The current trends of urban dynamics in the Third World are alarming with regard to climate change, because they are giving an increasingly important role to cars—to the detriment of public and non-motorized transportation. Yet this is the type of energy consumption that is expected to grow the fastest, in business-as-usual scenarios. How can these market-based urban trends be influenced? What level of emissions reduction can be achieved? This article shows that first, there is a relevant and urgent need to tackle the urban dynamics of cities in developing countries focusing on the “transport–land uses” couple, and second, that existing transport technologies and decision-helping tools are already available to take up the climate change challenge. Through the application of an integrated “transport–land uses” model, TRANUS, this study demonstrates that transit technologies affordable to an emerging city like Bangalore can significantly curb the trajectories of energy consumption and the ensuing carbon dioxide emissions, if and only if they are implemented in the framework of appropriate urban planning. Furthermore, this study establishes that there are tools which are available to facilitate the necessary policy-making processes. These tools allow stakeholders to discuss different political alternatives integrating energy issues, based on quantitative assessments.     

The four ‘R's of energy security

Energy can be a confusing issue to the general public, policymakers, and politicians. Adding energy security to the lexicon has not provided any clarification. To assist in explaining some of the concepts associated with energy security and to show how an individual or organization can improve energy security, this paper introduces the “four ‘R's of energy security”: review (understanding the problem), reduce (using less energy), replace (shifting to secure sources), and restrict (limiting new demand to secure sources).     

Energy sustainable communities: Environmental psychological investigations

Energy sustainability is becoming an increasing issue—or rather “the” issue in our society. Often it is reduced to a purely technical problem. Renewable energies and energy-efficient technologies are developed to solve the problem, but finally the end-users will “decide” how much and what kind of energy they are going to consume. This article is targeted on showing the environmental psychological aspects of the change of energy demand and supply. It builds upon a transactional model of human technology interchange and summarises environmental psychological work done during more than 5 years. It refers to the idea of energy sustainable communities (ESCs), shows the development of one example community and concentrates on one aspect of the social dimension of ESCs, the “acceptance of renewable energy technology”, its definition and measurement in Germany.     

Enlarging the EU's internal energy market: Why would third countries accept EU rule export?

Why would countries without a membership perspective seek integration into the EU's internal energy market? One major element of the EU's external energy policy is the export of EU energy norms and regulations to neighbourhood countries and beyond. A core legal instrument the EU uses in this context is the Energy Community Treaty (ECT). The ECT goes both geographically and regarding its depth significantly beyond neighbourhood or association policies, addressing potentially also countries in the ‘far neighbourhood’ and aiming at the creation of a Single Market for energy with these countries. While, however, EU candidate countries are obliged to adopt the “acquis” before accessing the EU and therefore comply to EU rules already before they enter the Club, I argue that countries with no or only a vague membership perspective – i.e. countries where the EU cannot apply the “conditionality” – approach (e.g., ENP countries)—aim at deeper integration with the EU because they are either eager to demonstrate their capability and potential to become part of the Club, they seek greater independence from a regional hegemon or they envisage significant economic gains as common norms, rules and standards are likely to increase economic exchange with the EU.     

Long-term security of energy supply and climate change

Security of energy supply and climate change are central concerns for policy makers and important dimensions of the long-term quest for a sustainable global energy system. This paper examines the role of several policy instruments in managing energy security and climate risks and stimulating technological change towards a more secure and climate-benign global energy system in the long-term future. The analysis has been conducted with ERIS, a multi-regional energy-systems “bottom-up” optimization model with technology learning. Our analysis provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for security of supply policies to promote the uptake of new technologies, reduce the cost of pursuing climate change mitigation policies, and facilitate a possible transition to a hydrogen economy.     

Planning an energy-conserving policy for Taiwan based on international examples of success

Taiwan lacks indigenous energy resources and imports 99% of its energy supply. This heavy energy-dependence represents a hidden threat for Taiwan's energy security and economic development. The most effective solution thus is to adopt an energy-conservation policy, similar to those successfully implemented in certain highly developed countries, such as the UK, the USA, Japan, and Germany. From the successful experiences of these countries, this study proposes a general mechanism of increasing energy efficiency by 2% annually, together with an executive master plan, followed by a scenario breakdown for energy-conserving policy in Taiwan. The feasibility of these proposals has been confirmed by the finding that their achievements in terms of energy saving and CO₂ emission reduction conform to the goals of the “Taiwan National Energy Conference 2005”.     

China's energy security: Perception and reality

China, now the world's second-largest economy, is worried about energy security, which underpins the core objectives of Beijing and the political legitimacy of the Communist Party of China. The purpose of this study is to explore certain popular myths about China's energy security. The study consists of six parts. After the introduction, it formulates the obscure concept of “energy security” and attempts to contextualize it with “Chinese characteristics.” Then it explicitly points out that the largest driver of oil demand by China as the “World's Factory” is transport instead of industry. Next, it explores the effectiveness of transnational pipelines as a measure of energy security and explains why they are less effective than many observers have previously assumed. Furthermore, it investigates the global expansion of Chinese national oil companies and questions their actual contribution to energy security. A few concluding remarks then follow.     

Energy security and renewable electricity trade—Will Desertec make Europe vulnerable to the “energy weapon”?

Solar power imports to Europe from the deserts of North Africa, as foreseen in the Desertec concept, is one possible way to help decarbonising the European power sector by 2050. However, this approach raises questions of threats to European energy security in such an import scenario, particularly in the light of increasing import dependency and Russia's use of the “energy weapon” in recent years. In this paper we investigate the threat of North African countries using the Desertec electricity exports as an “energy weapon”. We develop and use a new model to assess the interdependence – the bargaining power symmetry, operationalised as costs – of a disruption in a future renewable electricity trade between North Africa and Europe. If Europe maintains current capacity buffers, some demand-response capability and does not import much more than what is described in the Desertec scenario, it is susceptible to extortion and political pressure only if all five exporter countries unite in using the energy weapon. Europe is not vulnerable to extortion by an export cut from only one country, as the European capacity buffers are sufficient to restore the power supply: no single exporter country would have sustained bargaining power over Europe.     

Comments on “Generation of typical meteorological year for different climates of China” [Energy, 35 (2010) 1946–1953]

This is the comment to the article “Generation of typical meteorological year for different climates of China” [Energy, 35 (2010) 1946–1953].     

Mathematical model for the choice of an energy management structure of complex buildings

The design of the energy management is a basic problem in the preliminary design of complex buildings. The structure of the energy management is a set of main energy equipment, as well as relationships between them. For modern complex buildings the set of possible variants of the structure of energy management is numerous. The aim of preliminary design is the choice of the optimal variant of the energy management structure. The paper deals with the selection of the energy management structure of complex buildings. In order to achieve it, the algorithm of elaboration of the set of variants and the determination of the structure of the “input–output” matrix has been developed. The paper contains the example of the determination of the binary “input–output” matrix for an office building. For the selected variant of energy management the energy balance sheet has been completed.     

Impact of energy efficiency gains on output and energy use with Cobb–Douglas production function

A special issue of Energy Policy—28 (2000)—was devoted to a collection of papers, edited by Dr. Lee Schipper. The collection included a paper entitled “A view from the macro side: rebound, backfire, and Khazzoom–Brookes” in which it was argued that the impact of fuel efficiency gains on output (roughly, GDP) is likely to be relatively small by Cobb–Douglas production function. However, an error in the analysis leads to under-estimation of the long-term impact. This paper first provides a partial equilibrium analysis by an alternative method for the same case and then proceeds to an analysis on the issue in a two-sector general equilibrium system. In the latter analysis, energy price is internalized. Both energy use efficiency and energy production efficiency are involved.     

Employment benefits of electricity generation: A comparative assessment of lignite and natural gas power plants in Greece

This paper aims at developing an integrated approach for estimating the employment benefits associated with power-generation technologies. The proposed approach exploits the input–output methodology for estimating the direct, indirect and induced employment effects associated with the energy project in question, as well as two different valuation techniques, namely the “opportunity cost of labour” approach and the “public expenditures” approach, for expressing these effects in monetary terms. This framework has been implemented to estimate the employment benefits resulting from the development of a lignite-fired and a natural gas-fired power plant in Greece, taking into account all the stages of the corresponding fuel cycles that are undertaken domestically. The results of the analysis clearly show that lignite-fired electricity generation results in significant employment benefits amounting to 2.9–3.5 €/MWh in the basic scenario. On the other hand, the employment benefits associated with the examined natural gas unit were estimated at 0.4–0.6 €/MWh in the basic scenario. It is also worth mentioning that the significant environmental externalities of the lignite-fired electricity in Greece that have been presented in a number of studies can only be partially compensated by the estimated employment benefits.     

The analysis of renewable energy policies for the Taiwan Penghu island administrative region

Taiwan dependents on thermal power for 70% of its total energy supply. The high consumption of fossil fuel increases the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and consequently causes global warming and climate change. Thus, Taiwan has proposed new regulations and measures such as “The Framework for Sustainable Energy Policy - An Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Action Plan“and” The Master Plan of Energy Conservation and Carbon Mitigation” for domestic carbon reduction. These regulations indicate that the urgency to promote renewable energy to the public to achieve sizable reduction of CO₂ emissions. The objective of this paper is to develop a cost-benefit evaluation methodology based on system dynamics (SD) modelling for any given administrative region to evaluate renewable energy policies. This research develops specific SD models with causal feedback loops to assess the effectiveness of policies and the corresponding benefits for solar energy carbon reduction. The solar energy applications on Taiwan's largest island, Penghu, are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The SD approaches and the evaluation of the results serve as a reference to promote solar energy in the other regions with reduced costs and reliability.     

The development of the German energy market until 2030—A critical survey of selected scenarios

Many scenarios have been generated in the last years analysing the international energy market. The variety of these scenarios is manifold, as they are generated by different institutions using different methodological approaches and different framework assumptions. However, these scenarios can roughly be classified into three main groups: “moderate”, “climate protection” and “resource scarcity and high fossil fuel prices”. Analysing the German energy market makes a fourth scenario group necessary, which considers the possible revision of the decided nuclear energy phase out. Most of the existing scenarios developed by different institutions can be allocated into one of these groups. A representative scenario for each group has been selected to illustrate the development of the energy sector until 2030. Contrary to the worldwide primary energy demand (PED), the German PED decreases in each scenario, even though the drop differs strongly throughout the scenarios. On the other hand the structure of the PED in 2030 varies strongly for each scenario, especially regarding the share of fossil energy sources. However, a common robust result can be observed throughout all scenarios, namely the high increase in the share of the renewable energy resources, although the scenario generation processes are not always robust.