China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model

Although China became the world's largest CO₂ emitter in 2007, the country has also taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity. This study uses the bottom-up LBNL China End-Use Energy Model to assess the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its 2020 intensity reduction goals. Two scenarios – Continued Improvement and Accelerated Improvement – were developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to reduce energy demand and emissions. This scenario analysis presents an important modeling approach based in the diffusion of end-use technologies and physical drivers of energy demand and thereby help illuminate China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies. The findings suggest that China's CO₂ emissions will not likely continue growing throughout this century because of saturation effects in appliances, residential and commercial floor area, roadways, fertilizer use; and population peak around 2030 with slowing urban population growth. The scenarios also underscore the significant role that policy-driven efficiency improvements will play in meeting 2020 carbon mitigation goals along with a decarbonized power supply.     

US energy conservation and efficiency policies: Challenges and opportunities

Expanding energy conservation and efficiency in every sector nationwide is one of the most cost-effective instruments for reducing US energy imports, the trade deficit and energy’s environmental impacts. For these reasons, energy conservation and efficiency have been essential elements of US energy policy since the oil embargos and price spikes of the 1970s. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) is the latest federal legislation to expand and strengthen US energy conservation and efficiency policies, programs, and practices. Specifically, EISA and its recent predecessor, the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct05), contain almost 200 titles with new provisions for energy conservation and efficiency aimed at improvements in vehicle fuel economy. These provisions include efficiency of appliances and lighting; energy savings in residential, commercial, and government buildings; the efficiency of industrial manufacturing plants; and the efficiency of electric power delivery and end-use. These actions have begun to contribute to new federal, state, and local policies, programs, and practices across the US, and expectations are high for increases in the level of energy savings. This paper summarizes the history of US energy conservation and efficiency policies, outlines EISA’s and EPAct05’s key provisions, and considers prospects for the future.     

ASEAN towards clean and sustainable energy: Potentials,utilization and barriers

This paper reports the outcome of the project on “Capacity building in formulating harmonized policy instruments for the promotion of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in the ASEAN member countries”. With the growing concerns about green house gas (GHG) emission and consequent climate change, renewable energy sources have become more attractive option for electricity generation around the world. Studies have been made on the status of renewable energy potential and utilization, major barriers in promoting renewable energy in ASEAN countries, major energy policies to overcome barriers, and existing renewable energy and energy efficiency policies in ASEAN countries. Paper concludes that ASEAN has not utilized its renewable energy resources anywhere near to the potential. Analysis found that the key factor that has to be amended is “policies and regulations in renewable energy and energy efficiency” at both country level and regional level. But, ASEAN is not yet ready for the full harmonization of the policies. However, it recommends that, with the project outputs it is possible to focus on the specific policy instruments common to most of the member countries, such that it could use to augment ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) initiatives.     

Review on Malaysia's national energy developments: Key policies,agencies, programmes and international involvements

This paper aims to present a review on Malaysia's national energy developments by looking at various angles in terms of renewable energy and energy efficiency. Energy demand and consumption by sectors are presented as well as the fuel mix in electricity generation. Key energy policies implemented from the incorporation of Malaysia's national oil company, Petronas in 1974 until the National Green Technology Policy 2009 and a future policy will be addressed. The roles of key players as well as important agencies in energy development are briefly presented. Key programmes in energy development such as Malaysian Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvement Project, Small Renewable Energy Power Programme and Building Energy Efficiency Programme are discussed as well as successful initiatives from the programmes. Malaysia's international involvements towards reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon emissions especially Montreal Protocol and Kyoto Protocol are highlighted. As a conclusion, Malaysia is aware of its role in formulating its national energy development policies, sensitive towards the country's development towards the environment and utilization of energy resources as well as conscientious and responsive towards the call for sustainable development in promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency.     

Towards cooperative policy approaches in China—Drivers for voluntary agreements on industrial energy efficiency in Nanjing

Energy efficiency is a national priority for China as rapid energy consumption growth aggravates its greenhouse gas emissions, local air pollution and energy scarcity. In the 1990s, a large number of voluntary agreements emerged in industrialised countries in order to improve industrial energy efficiency. These experiences are now taken into account in China. This article analyses the drivers for voluntary agreements on industrial energy efficiency in China, based on a case study of three enterprises in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. Furthermore, the article reviews the institutional set-up of energy policy and investigates the pertaining policy culture. From the findings, conclusions are drawn on the role of voluntary agreements within China's larger policy context. We conclude that opposed to avoiding stricter regulation, voluntary agreements in Nanjing are reinterpreted in view of more stringent national provisions on energy efficiency in the 11th Five Year Plan. Hence, agreements have evolved into an implementation tool of national policy at the local level. For industry, another major driver for participation was identified as improving its relations with local authorities. Voluntary agreements showed to have the potential to overcome traditional constraints of implementing top–down policies at the local level in China.     

Model projections and policy reviews for energy saving in China's service sector

Energy efficiency of buildings in the service sector is becoming increasingly important in China due to the structural shift of the economy from industry to services. This paper employs a bottom-up cohort model to simulate current energy saving policies and to make projections for future energy use and CO₂ emissions for the period 2000–2030 in the Chinese service sector. The analysis shows that energy demand in the service sector will approximately triple in 2030, far beyond the target of quadrupling GDP while only doubling energy use. However, it is feasible to achieve the target of emission reduction by 40% in 2020 even under the poor state of compliance rate of building standard. This paper also highlights four crucial aspects of designing optimal energy saving policies for China's service sector based on the model results.     

Review of policies and measures for energy efficiency in industry sector

Energy efficiency in industry plays key roles in improving energy security, environmental sustainability and economic performance. It is particularly important in strategies to mitigate climate change. The evidence of great potential for cost-effective efficiency-derived reductions in industrial energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have prompted governments to implement numerous policies and measures aimed at improving their manufacturing industries’ energy efficiency. What can be learned from these many and varied initiatives? This paper provides foundation for policy analysis for enhancing energy efficiency and conservation in industry, by surveying more than 300 policies, encompassing about 570 measures, implemented by governments in IEA countries, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa. It outlines the measures’ main features, their incidence of use, and their connections with specific technical actions and key stakeholders (i.e., how and where measures affect the energy efficiency of industry). It also examines the key features underlying the measures’ success: (1) potential to reduce energy use and CO₂ emissions cost-efficiently; (2) ease of policy development, execution and assessment and (3) ancillary societal effects.     

Comparative assessment of policies targeting energy use efficiency in Lithuania

Energy efficiency is an important issue of European climate policy. Energy efficiency is measured by the energy intensity of an economy showing how much energy (expressed in kilograms of oil equivalent, kgoe) is used for the production of one unit (1000 EUR) of GDP. There are huge differences between EU old and new member states. Though there are some trends of energy intensity convergence between EU member states however the achieved decrease in energy intensity is attributable mostly to a loss of energy-intensive industrial capacities in the transformation process. There is a crucial difference between whether the energy intensity of a given economy decreases as a result of downscaling energy-intensive activities or because of increased energy efficiency in activities that are maintained. It is important to make sure that this distinction is made within the policy framework which at present is not the case. The aim of the paper is to assess policies targeting energy intensity decrease in Lithuania in terms of efficiency, effectiveness and efficacy and to select the best policies able to increase energy efficiency in activities that are maintained.     

Western China energy development and west to east energy transfer: Application of the Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model

China is striving for coordinated regional economic development and to solve the energy shortage in eastern China through a western China development plan with one focus being energy development and west to east energy transfer. This paper describes Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model (WSED) to evaluate various energy development scenarios for western China. The model includes a Western China MARKAL model, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Western China (WCGE), and an Energy Service Demand Projection Model (ESDP). The ESDP provides energy service demand projections for the Western China MARKAL model, while the WCGE provides macroeconomic inputs for the ESDP and analyzes the impact of different energy development scenarios on western China economy. A reference scenario and several different west to east energy transfer scenarios with and without consideration of the water constraints and the endogenous technology learning are presented. The modeling describes the energy consumption, carbon emissions, water consumption, energy investment cost, and the impact on western China GDP of the different scenarios through the year 2050. These results have implications on sustainable energy development policies and sustainable west to east energy transfer strategies.     

Barriers' and policies' analysis of China's building energy efficiency

With the rapid economic growth and the improvement of people's living standards, China's building energy consumption has kept rising during the past 15 years. Under the effort of the Chinese government and the society, China's building energy efficiency has made certain achievements. However, the implementation of building energy efficiency in China is still far from its potential. Based on the analysis of the existing policies implemented in China, the article concluded that the most essential and the most effective ways to promote building energy efficiency is the government's involvement as well as economic and financial incentives. In addition, the main barriers in the process of promoting building energy efficiency in China are identified in six aspects. It has been found that the legal system and administrative issues constitute major barriers, and the lack of financial incentives and the mismatching of market mechanism also hamper the promotion of building energy efficiency. Finally, in view of the existing policies and barriers analysis, three corresponding policy proposals are presented.     

Energy policy and standard for built environment in China

Trends in China's energy future will have considerable consequences for both China and the global environment. Though China's carbon emissions are low on a per capita basis, China is already ranked the world's second largest producer of carbon, behind only America. China's buildings sector currently accounts for 23% of China's total energy use and is projected to increase to one-third by 2010. Energy policy plays an important role in China's sustainable development. The purpose of this study is to provide a broad overview of energy efficiency issues in the built environment in China. This paper, firstly briefly, reviews the key national policies related to the built environment and demonstrates the government's environmental concern. Secondly, the authors introduce recent energy policies in the built environment. Energy efficiency and renewable energy in the built environment, which are the key issues of the national energy policy, have been reviewed. Discussion of the implementation of energy policy has been carried out.     

The present situation and characteristics of China's energy consumption

China's present energy consumption and its composition in the past decade is introduced in this paper. Energy in China is mainly sourced domestically; coal predominates in the composition of energy consumption (average 72.5%); industrial energy consumption is a large proportion of final energy consumption (average 65.6%); the utilization efficiency of energy is low; serious environment pollution is caused by coal combustion. It is necessary to introduce technology innovation for energy conservation because of the low energy efficiency of equipment and the backwardness of industrial technologies. China must ‘lay equal stress on development and conservation and give priority to conservation in the near future’ while maintaining economic growth.     

我国公共机构节能“十一五”工作回顾与“十二五”政策建议

公共机构是指全部或者部分使用财政性资金的国家机关、事业单位和团体组织。公共机构节能(又称政府机构节能)是节能工作的重要领域,对推动全社会节能减排工作具有重要的表率示范作用。本文全面回顾了我国公共机构节能工作"十一五"期间取得的成效,深入分析了当前工作中存在的问题,提出了"十二五"期间加强公共机构节能工作的政策建议。     

Final energy use in IEA countries: The role of energy efficiency

Improved energy efficiency is a key policy goal of all International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries, but tracking energy efficiency gains is not straightforward. As part of its contribution to the G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action, the IEA has been developing in-depth indicators—tools that provide data and analysis of energy use and efficiency trends. This paper gives an overview of the IEA indicator methodology and presents examples of how disaggregated indicators can be used to identify the factors that drive and restrain energy demand at the end-use level. A decomposition approach is also used to separate efficiency effects from the impacts of structure and activity. The results clearly show the important role that energy efficiency has played in shaping trends in final energy use in IEA countries for more than 30 years. However, the analysis also reveals that recent gains in energy efficiency have been much lower than in earlier decades. Accelerating energy efficiency improvements is therefore a crucial challenge for IEA governments and indicators have an important role to play in helping to develop and evaluate the policies that will be required.     

Revisiting energy efficiency fundamentals

Energy efficiency is a central target for energy policy and a keystone to mitigate climate change and to achieve a sustainable development. Although great efforts have been carried out during the last four decades to investigate the issue, focusing into measuring energy efficiency, understanding its trends and impacts on energy consumption and to design effective energy efficiency policies, many energy efficiency-related concepts, some methodological problems for the construction of energy efficiency indicators (EEI) and even some of the energy efficiency potential gains are often ignored or misunderstood, causing no little confusion and controversy not only for laymen but even for specialists. This paper aims to revisit, analyse and discuss some efficiency fundamental topics that could improve understanding and critical judgement of efficiency stakeholders and that could help in avoiding unfounded judgements and misleading statements. Firstly, we address the problem of measuring energy efficiency both in qualitative and quantitative terms. Secondly, main methodological problems standing in the way of the construction of EEI are discussed, and a sequence of actions is proposed to tackle them in an ordered fashion. Finally, two key topics are discussed in detail: the links between energy efficiency and energy savings, and the border between energy efficiency improvement and renewable sources promotion.     

Household energy use,energy efficiency,emissions, and behaviors

Energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generally aim to (i) reduce energy use and hence emissions, (ii) steer consumers away from fossil fuels and/or electricity generated from fossil fuels, and (iii) align demand and supply, making sure that the existing infrastructure can handle times of high demand. Policies thus include a variety of pricing schemes, taxes on energy inputs, energy efficiency standards and incentives, and renewables standards and incentives. Ex ante and ex post analyses of their effectiveness thus rely crucially on understanding how consumers respond to pricing schemes, taxes, and other policies. This paper presents an overview of the challenges faced when empirically estimating household energy demand. It describes the difficulties associated with estimating the price elasticity of demand, discussing behavioral responses that may make consumers relatively insensitive to price changes or taxes. It also surveys empirical evidence about non-price policies, such as clearer information or real-time feedback about energy use, and appeal to norms. The paper concludes discussing evidence about the rebound effect, the energy efficiency gap, and how suppliers respond to a variety of policies.     

Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector—A review of energy and climate models forecast

This article investigates the potentials of energy saving and greenhouse gases emission mitigation offered by implementation of building energy efficiency policies in China. An overview of existing literature regarding long-term energy-demand and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission forecast scenarios is presented. Energy consumption in buildings could be reduced by 100–300 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2030 compared with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which means that 600–700 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions could be saved by implementing appropriate energy policies within an adapted institutional framework. The main energy-saving potentials in buildings can be achieved by improving a building's thermal performance and district heating system efficiency. The analyses also reveal that the energy interchange systems are effective especially in the early stage of penetration. Our analysis on the reviewed models suggests that more ambitious efficiency improvement policies in both supply- and demand-side as well as the carbon price should be taken into account in the policy scenarios to address drastic reduction of CO₂ emission in the building sector to ensure climate security over the next decades.     

U.S. department of energy support of growth in industrial use of geothermal energy

The National Energy Strategy of the U.S. is designed to expand through federal policies the fuel and technology choices available to industry, utilities, and other energy users. It also promotes policies to encourage balanced integration of energy, economic, and environmental options in the selection of technologies for application in the marketplace. Consideration of each of these factors, separately and together, favors geothermal energy in many industrial applications. It is the policy of the Department of Energy to support growth in all uses of geothermal energy through focused R & D to improve technologies for its economic exploitation.     

Estimates of energy subsidies in China and impact of energy subsidy reform

For a transitional economy such as China, some energy subsidies are reasonable, and sometimes even necessary for achieving social goals. However, with rising energy prices and environmental concerns, we see conflicts emerging between energy subsidies, energy demand/supply fundamentals and climate change considerations. Energy subsidies have important implications for sustainable development through their effects on energy use, efficiency and the choice of fuel source. This paper applies the price-gap approach to estimate China's energy subsidies. Results indicate that China's energy subsidies amounted to CNY 356.73 billion in 2007, equivalent to 1.43% of GDP. Subsidies for oil products consumption are the largest, followed by subsidies for the electricity and coal sectors. Furthermore, a CGE model is used to analyze the economic impacts of energy subsidy reforms. Our findings show that removing energy subsidies will result in a significant fall in energy demand and emissions, but will have negative impacts on macroeconomic variables. We conclude that offsetting policies could be adopted such that certain shares of these subsidies are reallocated to support other sustainable development measures, which could lead to reducing energy intensity and favoring the environment.     

Polices for increasing energy efficiency: Thirty years of experience in OECD countries

Energy efficiency improvement was an important phenomenon in the global energy balance over the past 30 years. Without energy efficiency improvements, the OECD nations would have used approximately 49% more energy than was actually consumed as of 1998. This paper first reviews energy intensity trends for the major OECD nations since 1973, considering how much of the overall reduction in E/GDP was due to energy efficiency improvement and how much was due to structural change. The bulk of the paper examines the energy efficiency policies and programs adopted in Japan, United States, and Western Europe, commenting on their effectiveness and energy savings impacts where possible. The paper also reviews the energy efficiency policies and programs adopted in California. This experience shows that well-designed policies can result in substantial energy savings, as demonstrated in the United States where nine specific policies and programs reduced primary energy use in 2002 by approximately 11%. Substantial energy savings also occurred in Japan, some European countries, and in the electricity sector in California.