Understanding the variability of wind power costs

Wind power has a significant contribution to make in efforts to abate CO₂ emissions from global energy systems. Currently, wind power generation costs are approaching parity with costs attributed to conventional, carbon-based sources of energy but the economic advantage still rests decidedly with conventional sources. Therefore, there is an imperative to ensure that wind power projects are developed in the most economically optimal fashion. For wind power project developers, shaving a few tenths of a cent off of the kilowatts per hour cost of wind power can mean the difference between a commercially viable project and a non-starter. For civic authorities who are responsible for managing municipally supported wind power projects, optimizing the economics of such projects can attenuate stakeholder opposition. This paper attempts to contribute to a better understanding of how to economically optimise wind power projects by conflating research from the fields of energy economics, wind power engineering, aerodynamics, geography and climate science to identify critical factors that influence the economic optimization of wind power projects.     

Investigation on wind power potential on Hong Kong islands—an analysis of wind power and wind turbine characteristics

This paper discusses the potential for electricity generation on Hong Kong islands through an analysis of the local weather data and typical wind turbine characteristics. An optimum wind speed, u_op, is proposed to choose an optimal type of wind turbine for different weather conditions. A simulation model has been established to describe the characteristics of a particular wind turbine. A case study investigation allows wind speed and wind power density to be obtained using different hub heights, and the annual power generated by the wind turbine to be simulated. The wind turbine's capacity factor, being the ratio of actual annual power generation to the rated annual power generation, is shown to be 0.353, with the capacity factor in October as high as 0.50. The simulation shows the potential for wind power generation on the islands surrounding Hong Kong.     

A probabilistic security assessment approach to power systems with integrated wind resources

Renewable energy sources, such as wind and photovoltaic solar, have added additional uncertainty to power systems. These sources, further to the conventional sources of uncertainty due to stochastic nature of both the load and the availability of generation resources and transmission assets, make clear the limitations of the conventional deterministic power flow in power system analysis and security assessment applications. In order to manage uncertainties, probabilistic approaches can provide a valuable contribution.In this paper, we propose a new scheme for probabilistic security assessment. The model can deal with various types of probability distributions modeling power injections and can explicitly represent the effects on system security of correlation among nodal power injections (such as wind power) and of contingencies due to branch and generating unit outages. In addition, the steady-state behavior of the frequency regulation is explicitly included in the model. A new approach to deal with current limits is also proposed.Extensive testing on both the modified IEEE-14 bus test system and the Sicilian power system indicates good performance of the proposed approach in comparison with the result obtained by the computationally more demanding Monte Carlo approach.     

The impact of wind power on electricity prices

This paper investigates the impact of wind power on electricity prices using a production cost model of the Independent System Operator – New England power system. Different scenarios in terms of wind penetration, wind forecasts, and wind curtailment are modeled in order to analyze the impact of wind power on electricity prices for different wind penetration levels and for different levels of wind power visibility and controllability. The analysis concludes that electricity price volatility increases even as electricity prices decrease with increasing wind penetration levels. The impact of wind power on price volatility is larger in the shorter term (5-min compared to hour-to-hour). The results presented show that over-forecasting wind power increases electricity prices while under-forecasting wind power reduces them. The modeling results also show that controlling wind power by allowing curtailment increases electricity prices, and for higher wind penetrations it also reduces their volatility.     

Performance of wind power industry development in China: A DiamondModel study

A reliable supply of energy is essential to maintain and to improve human being's living conditions. Compared to the conventional coal-fired approach, renewable energy (RE) helps to mitigate the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions to a large extent. As a newly developed sector with large resource potential and good commercial prospects, China's wind power industry is exceeding expectations. By 2008, installed capacity of wind power in China totaled over 12 GW, making China the fourth largest wind market in the world. However, China has to admit the gap with foreign leading countries, mainly in technical R&D for large-scale wind turbine generation units. This paper attempts to formulate an analytical model for studying and assessing factors that have significant impacts on the local industry. An improved dynamic Diamond Model is developed to help the international community to understand the status quo of the Chinese wind power industry. In order to build a stronger wind power industry, the elements identified in the model need to be strengthened.     

The assessment of actual wind power availability in ireland

Data on actual wind energy availability in Ireland are sparse. This is because (a) relatively little data on wind speeds have been collected in Ireland at sites of interest for wind exploitation, and (b) such data need in any case to be integrated with the characteristics of actual windmills which respond more efficiently to certain wind speed than to others. This paper describes a methodology for performing such an integration, and offers tables of specific output for windmills of different characteristics located at different sites in Ireland. the variations in this specific output are discussed.     

Development strategies for wind power industry in Jiangsu Province,China: Based on the evaluation of resource capacity

Jiangsu Province is one of the planned strategic areas for wind power development in China, but its current development of wind power industry is not so outstanding. Since, Jiangsu would encounter little market resistance, this paper focuses on the evaluation of resource capacity for wind power development in Jiangsu Province, including the wind energy capacity, land resources capacity and power grid capacity, in order to find their supportive or restrictive effects on the development of wind power industry. The results show that the wind energy resource in Jiangsu Province are sufficient to meet the needs of the development of wind farms; the extensive mudflat in the coastal areas also provides ideal site conditions for wind farms; but the power grid capacity is insufficient for the wind power development in Jiangsu. Therefore, from the aspect of enhancing the capacity of power grid for carrying wind power and from the other aspect of combining the non-grid-connected utilization and the large-scale storage of wind power, this paper suggests some strategies to overcome the constraints of grid capacity and promoting the wind power development in Jiangsu Province.     

Pricing offshore wind power

Offshore wind offers a very large clean power resource, but electricity from the first US offshore wind contracts is costlier than current regional wholesale electricity prices. To better understand the factors that drive these costs, we develop a pro-forma cash flow model to calculate two results: the levelized cost of energy, and the breakeven price required for financial viability. We then determine input values based on our analysis of capital markets and of 35 operating and planned projects in Europe, China, and the United States. The model is run for a range of inputs appropriate to US policies, electricity markets, and capital markets to assess how changes in policy incentives, project inputs, and financial structure affect the breakeven price of offshore wind power. The model and documentation are made publicly available.     

浅析风力发电可持续发展

分析了风力发电技术及风力发电行业发展,对我国风电发展前景进行了预测,提出随着技术进步和环保事业的发展,风能发电在商业上将完全可以与燃能发电竞争,风力发电可能成为世界未来重要的替代能源。     

Large scale wind power integration in China: Analysis from a policy perspective

Between 2006 and 2010 the installed capacity of wind power in China has doubled and by 2010 China's cumulative installed capacity of wind power ranked the first in the world, surpassing the United States. However, the rapid expansion of installed capacity has not been matched by grid connection, and this deficiency has aroused the concern of both policy makers and scholars. Unlike most of the current studies which focus on technical strategies in China's wind power industry, this paper analyzes the problem from a policy perspective. The paper analyzes the four challenges that large scale wind power integration in China faces: the uncoordinated development between wind power capacity and power grids; the lack of suitable technical codes for wind power integration; the unclear nature of the grid companies’ responsibility for grid connection; and the inadequate economic incentives for grid enterprises. To address these problems, the paper recommends that the government: formulates policies to better coordinate the development of wind power and the planning and construction of power grids; establishes grid codes that reflect in particular the requirements to be met by users of power transmission and distribution networks; and integrates administrative intervention and economic incentive policies to stimulate the grid enterprises’ enthusiasm to absorb wind power generation.     

Geographic aggregation and wind power output variance in Denmark

At modest penetration, wind power merely substitutes electricity generated typically at thermal power plants. In this case, wind power only provides economic benefits in terms of saved marginal fuel and operation and maintenance costs. At higher penetrations, it becomes increasingly important for the energy system to be able to operate without costly reserve capacity awaiting fluctuations in demand or wind power generation. Existing transmission interconnections have mainly been established in order to assist in reducing the reserve capacity of thermal power systems. While indeed relevant in thermal systems, this is typically even more important in renewable energy-based systems, in which fluctuations to a large extent are uncontrollable. This makes interconnected systems an interesting option for integrating electricity produced from such energy sources. Using a Danish example, this article demonstrates how different demand and wind production variations in different geographical areas assist in evening out fluctuations and reducing imbalances in systems with high penetrations of wind power. By exploiting these variations, the needs for reserve capacity and condensing mode power generation are reduced. However, the article also demonstrates that there are limits to what can be gained on this account.     

Exploitation and utilization of the wind power and its perspective in China

Wind energy, as a reliable, natural and renewable electrical power supply, produces no emissions and so it is an excellent alternative to conventional, more heavily polluting fuels in the long term based on the worldwide concern about the environment and energy supply. Wind energy resources in China are affluent, but its distribution are uneven, centralized, and far from both the utility and the high electricity demand markets. This made China's onshore wind power development have such characteristics as large scale, high centralization and far transmission, which is different with that in Europe, where the characteristics are even distribution, decentralized. In past two decades, considering the economic, technical and environmental benefits of wind power, China has given priority to its development. Besides the dramatic growth of large scale grid-connected wind power, household-scale wind power has been used most successfully in remote rural regions in China. Therefore, the development of wind power will be of great importance to alleviate the energy crisis and environmental pollution resulting from the rapid economic growth of China in the future. In this paper, the current development of wind energy utilization in China is investigated, and some critical barriers are discussed. Finally, the perspective of wind energy utilization is presented, where focuses are placed on seven wind power bases.     

Review on wind power development and relevant policies in China during the 11th Five-Year-Plan period

Since 2005, there has been dramatic progress in China's wind power industry. The annual growth rate of newly constructed capacity reached a miracle of 105% and the total installed capacity has increased from 1.27 GW in 2005 to 44.73 GW in 2010, which has exceeded the target of China's energy long-term planning for 2020. During the 11th Five-Year-Plan (FYP), the Chinese government has issued a series of polices to promote and regulate the development of wind power industry, which is the underlying force driving its rapid development. This paper is a systematical review on the current status and policies of wind power industry in China. Firstly the current status including achievements and shortcomings is presented, and then the relevant polices and regulations released during the period of 11th FYP are reviewed. Meanwhile, the main approaches of the policies and regulations in promoting the development of wind power industry are discussed and the issues of the current policies are analyzed. Finally, the paper concludes on the perspectives of wind power policies in China.     

Estimating future balancing power requirements in wind–PV power system

This paper presents a general model—based on the Monte Carlo simulation—for the estimation of power system uncertainties and associated reserve and balancing power requirements. The proposed model comprises wind, PV and load uncertainty, together with wind and PV production simulation. In the first stage of the model, wind speed and solar irradiation are simulated, based on the plant disposition and relevant data. The second stage of the model consists of wind speed, PV power and load forecast error simulation, based on the associated statistical parameters. Finally, both wind and PV forecast error are combined with the load forecast error, resulting in the net uncertainty. This net uncertainty, aggregated on a yearly level, presents a dominant component in balancing power requirements. Proposed model presents an efficient solution in planning phase when the actual data on wind and PV production is unavailable.     

Low wind speed turbines and wind power potential in Minnesota, USA

Wind power development in Minnesota largely has been focused in the “windy” southwestern part of the state. This research evaluates the additional power that potentially could be generated via low wind speed turbines, particularly for areas of the state where there has been comparatively little wind energy investment. Data consist of 3 years (2002–2004) of wind speed measurements at 70–75 m above ground level, at four sites representing the range of wind speed regimes (Classes 2–5) found in Minnesota. Power estimates use three configurations of the General Electric 1.5-MW series turbine that vary in rotor diameter and in cut-in, cut-out, and rated speeds. Results show that lower cut-in, cut-out, and rated speeds, and especially the larger rotor diameters, yield increases of 15–30% in wind power potential at these sites. Gains are largest at low wind speed (Class 2) sites and during the summer months at all four sites. Total annual wind power at each site shows some year-to-year variability, with peaks at some sites partially compensating for lulls at others. Such compensation does not occur equally in all years: when large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns are strong (e.g., 2002), the four sites show similar patterns of above- and below-average wind power, somewhat reducing the ability of geographic dispersion to mitigate the effects of wind speed variability.     

Offshore wind power simulation by using WRF in the central coast of Chile

This paper presents the first estimate of offshore wind power potential for the central coast of Chile. For this purpose, wind speed data from in-situ stations and ERA-Interim reanalysis were used to simulate wind fields at regional level by means of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Wind field simulations were performed at different heights (20, 30, 40 and 140 m.a.s.l.) and a spatial resolution of 3 × 3 km for the period from February 1, 2006 to January 31, 2007, which comprised the entire series of in-situ data available. The results show an RMSE and r² of 2.2 m s⁻¹ and 0.55 respectively for the three heights simulated as compared to in-situ data. Based on the simulated wind data, the wind power for the study area was estimated at ∼1000 W m⁻² at a height of 140 m.a.s.l. For a typical wind turbine of 8 MW generator, the estimated capacity factor exceeds 40%, with an average annual generation of ∼30 GWh. Offshore wind power in Chile is an emerging renewable energy source that is as yet still under-developed, these estimates help to fill in some of the gaps in our knowledge about Chile's true renewable energy potential.     

Design requirements for medium-sized wind turbines for remote and hybrid power systems

This paper provides an overview of the design requirements for medium-sized wind turbines intended for use in a remote hybrid power system. The recommendations are based on first-hand experience acquired at the University of Massachusetts through the installation, operation, and upgrade of a 250-kW turbine on a mountain top with difficult access in Western Massachusetts. Experience with the operation of this turbine and the design of its control system, together with a long history in the design and analysis of hybrid power systems, has made it possible to extend the work in Western Massachusetts to remote or hybrid power systems in general. The University test site has many attributes of more remote sites and the overall wind turbine installation is typical of one that could power a hybrid wind system. For example, access to the site is limited due to steep terrain, snow, and environmental restrictions. Also, the power lines feeding the turbine exhibit voltage sags and phase imbalance, especially during start-up. This paper is based on the experience gained from the operation of this wind turbine and assesses the requirements for the design and operation of medium to large wind turbines in remote locations. The work summarizes lessons learned relative to: (1) sensors, communication, and control capabilities; (2) grid connection issues; and (3) weather-related problems. The final section of the paper focuses on design requirements to ensure successful installation and the completion of maintenance and repairs at remote sites.     

Landscape externalities from onshore wind power

The expansion of renewable energy is a central element of the German Federal Government's climate and energy policy. The target for 2020 is to produce 30% of the electricity from renewable energies. Wind power has been selected to be a major contributor to this change. Replacing old wind turbines by modern ones and building new turbines on land will be crucial in meeting this target. However, the expansion of onshore wind power is not universally accepted. In several regions of Germany residents are protesting against setting up new wind turbines. To determine the negative effects two choice experiments were applied in Westsachsen and Nordhessen, Germany. In both regions the externalities of wind power generation until 2020 based on today's state of technology were measured. The results show that negative landscape externalities would result from expanding wind power generation. Using latent class models three different groups of respondents experiencing different degrees of externalities were identified.     

Spatial dependence in wind and optimal wind power allocation: A copula-based analysis

The investment decision on the placement of wind turbines is, neglecting legal formalities, mainly driven by the aim to maximize the expected annual energy production of single turbines. The result is a concentration of wind farms at locations with high average wind speed. While this strategy may be optimal for single investors maximizing their own return on investment, the resulting overall allocation of wind turbines may be unfavorable for energy suppliers and the economy because of large fluctuations in the overall wind power output. This paper investigates to what extent optimal allocation of wind farms in Germany can reduce these fluctuations. We analyze stochastic dependencies of wind speed for a large data set of German on- and offshore weather stations and find that these dependencies turn out to be highly nonlinear but constant over time. Using copula theory we determine the value at risk of energy production for given allocation sets of wind farms and derive optimal allocation plans. We find that the optimized allocation of wind farms may substantially stabilize the overall wind energy supply on daily as well as hourly frequency.     

Modelling of a domestic wind power system including storage

A simulation analysis is presented of domestic heating by a wind power system including storage at a location 54°39′ N, 6°13′ W (Aldergrove, Northern Ireland). A simple theoretical model is constructed comprising a house of specified dimensions and heat loss characteristics, an aerogenerator and a thermal store. the data base used is a magnetic tape of hourly wind speed and air temperature readings taken at Aldergrove meteorological station during 1949–75. the results suggest a measure of optimization between store capacity and generator rating based on technical considerations alone, and a simple economic optimization is also presented.