Policies for improving the efficiency of the Brazilian light-duty vehicle fleet and their implications for fuel use,greenhouse gas emissions and land use

The increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, energy security issues and competition for land use are putting pressure on governments and policymakers. However, these three subjects are not usually treated in integrated form. This paper shows that the implementation of energy efficiency policies combined with policies to encourage use of biofuels can help reduce greenhouse gases emissions while easing land use competition from sugarcane ethanol in Brazil. By adapting the ADVISOR (Advanced Vehicle Simulator) software to evaluate vehicle efficiency, and by estimating the Brazilian light-duty vehicle market share based on historical data, this paper estimates the possible levels of GHG emissions and area planted with sugarcane in 2030 in the country. The findings indicate that reductions from 8% to 20% in greenhouse gas emissions and 0.9–1.8 million ha in sugarcane planted area are possible with no significant technological breakthroughs over the horizon to 2030 in comparison with a baseline scenario.     

Antagonistic bioenergies: Technological divergence of the ethanol industry in Brazil

We present evidence for the coexistence of two antagonistic sugarcane ethanol production technologies in Brazil, with the Southeast region of the country having relatively mechanized production processes, and the Northeast area using labor-intensive ones. We highlight the main differences between the hand-production and fully automated mechanical manufacturing in the Brazilian ethanol industry and examine the historical, political, and economic factors that induced this regional technology gap that is currently observed. We then construct an environmental model based on a 375-industry interregional input–output system for the Brazilian regions, in order to determine the extent to which the primitive ethanol production of Northern Brazil differs from the automated manufacture technologies of the South in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. We show that ethanol produced with modern technologies generates lower carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions than ethanol produced with traditional production processes. We also demonstrate that ethanol, regardless of the technology with which it was produced, is more carbon-efficient than petrochemical products.     

A conceptual lignocellulosic ‘feed+fuel’ biorefinery and its application to the linked biofuel and cattle raising industries in Brazil

It has been argued by some that the substitution of biofuels for gasoline could increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, rather than reduce them. The increase is attributed to the indirect land use change effects of planting new grain and corn crops around the world to replace those progressively being devoted to ethanol production. In this paper, indirect effects are minimised by allowing land to be used for both food and fuel, rather than for one or the other. We present a sugarcane ‘feed+fuel’ biorefinery, which produces bioethanol and yeast biomass, a source of single-cell protein (SCP), that can be used as a high-protein animal feed supplement. The yeast SCP can partially substitute for grass in the feed of cattle grazing on pasture and thereby potentially release land for increased sugarcane production, with minimal land use change effects. Applying the concept conservatively to the Brazilian ethanol and livestock industry our model demonstrates that it would be technically feasible to raise ethanol production threefold from the current level of 27 GL to over 92 GL. The extra ethanol would meet biofuel market mandates in the US without bringing any extra land into agricultural or pastoral use. The analysis demonstrates a viable way to increase biofuel and food production by linking two value chains as called for by industrial ecology studies.     

An economic analysis of transportation fuel policies in Brazil: Fuel choice,land use,and environmental impacts

Brazil uses taxes, subsidies, and blending mandates as policy instruments to manage and stabilize its transportation fuel markets. The fuel sector has been very dynamic in recent years due to frequent policy adjustments and variable market conditions. In this paper, we use a price endogenous economic simulation model to analyze the impacts of such policy adjustments under various challenging conditions in the global ethanol and sugar markets. Our analysis specifically focuses on Brazilian producers' supply responses, consumers' driving demand and fuel choice, ethanol trade, land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and social welfare. The model results show that (i) under a low ethanol blending rate, conventional vehicles would be driven significantly less while flex-fuel and ethanol-dedicated vehicles would not be affected significantly; (ii) lowering the fuel taxes adversely affects the competitiveness of sugarcane ethanol against gasoline blends, thus lowering producers' surplus; and (iii) while a reduction in fuel taxes is advantageous in terms of overall social welfare, it has serious environmental impacts by increasing the GHG emissions from transportation fuels consumed in Brazil.     

Combined production of second-generation biofuels and electricity from sugarcane residues

This paper describes a preliminary analysis of two technological routes (based on hydrolysis and on gasification + Fischer–Tropsch conversion process) of biofuels production from cellulosic materials. In this paper it was considered the integration of the two alternative routes to a conventional distillery of ethanol production based on fermentation of sugarcane juice. Sugarcane bagasse is the biomass considered as input in both second-generation routes. Results show that the integration of gasification + FT process to a conventional distillery is slightly more efficient (from an energetic point of view) and also offers the advantage of products diversification (ethanol from the conventional plant, plus diesel, gasoline and more surplus electricity regarding the hydrolysis route). Considering typical Brazilian conditions, at this stage it is not possible to foresee any significant advantage of any of the alternatives, but potentially the gasification route would have an advantage regarding avoided GHG emissions depending on the emission factor of the electric sector in which cogeneration units will be installed.     

The policymaking process for creating competitive assets for the use of biomass energy: the Brazilian alcohol programme

Public policies are fundamental to spur the use of biomass and make it competitive to face traditional commercial fossil fuels. This article analyzes the policymaking process of the Brazilian National Alcohol Policy (Proalcool). Proalcool is one of the world's most ambitious efforts to produce a renewable biomass fuel as an oil substitute. In the 1970s, after the oil crisis and the sharp increase in fuel prices, the Brazilian government started intensifying its policy to substitute sugarcane alcohol for gasoline in automobile use. Through a set of governmental interventions to increase alcohol demand and supply, Brazil created some competitive assets that made Proalcool a relative success in terms of developing institutional and technological capabilities for using renewable energy in large scale. Several key actors influenced the policy directions, such as the central and state governments, military groups, the alcohol industry, sugarcane agricultural aristocracy, bureaucrats, researchers and the media. Instead of thinking of Proalcool as a government decision based only on economic rationale or interests of few decision-makers, the elaboration and implementation of this alcohol policy could be thought of as the result of a policymaking process where the different stakeholders involved in the process with their values, interests and knowledge interacted with each other according to the political, social, technological and economic situation.     

中国甘蔗燃料乙醇生产的技术、经济和环境可行性分析

我国甘蔗燃料乙醇产业的发展是以2001年国家基于石油替代战略而启动“变性燃料乙醇”和“车用燃料乙醇”计划为背景发展起来的。目前燃料乙醇发展的突出障碍是生产成本较高,因此,需要国家的大量补贴。文中借鉴巴西利用甘蔗发展低成本燃料乙醇的经验,对中国甘蔗燃料乙醇生产的技术成熟度、市场竞争力和环境影响进行了分析,并得出：中国用甘蔗生产燃料乙醇在工艺和设备上不存在根本性、长期性的障碍;在目前的燃料乙醇和食糖价格下,甘蔗燃料乙醇的生产具有相对优势;甘蔗燃料乙醇生产中对环境的负面影响在现有的环保技术条件下可以得到克服,并且还将促进温室气体减排。     

An assessment of energy benefits of efficient household air-conditioners in Brazil

Increasing efficiency of electrical equipment is essential to national energy rationality, enabling energy consumption reduction and postponing inversion in distribution, transmission and generation, as well as mitigating environmental impacts associated with such activities. Considering such purposes, two actions have been promoted in Brazil: (a) minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) have been required for some appliances and (b) consumers have been informed about the most efficient products by ??endorsement labeling.?? The purpose of this study is to assess window and split air-conditioners with Brazilian MEPS. To evaluate the impact of efficient air-conditioners in this market, a model was developed based on estimates for quantity of equipment in operation and unitary consumption, as determined by local temperature records. From this model, it was deduced that using only efficient conditioners (class A for Brazilian Labeling Program/INMETRO, with PROCEL Label) an annual saving of 322?GWh and a reduction in demand of 109?MW could be obtained in 2007. Furthermore, it was observed that the current MEPS established by Brazilian legislation for air-conditioners may be considered relatively low. Considering that MEPS are similar to those observed in China (the main exporter of air-conditioners to the Brazil), an energy saving of roughly 222?GWh could be achieved in the same year. Impacts on emission of greenhouse gases are also estimated.     

Sugarcane industry's socioeconomic impact in São Paulo,Brazil: A spatial dynamic panel approach

This study assesses the socioeconomic development impacts of the recent sugarcane industry expansion on municipalities in the Brazilian state of São Paulo over seven years, from 2005 through 2011. It was used as socioeconomic development indicator the Index of Municipal Development (IFDM), provided by the Federation of the State of Rio de Janeiro Industries (FIRJAN). A dynamic spatial panel model was built using the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM-SYS) to assess the impacts of the sugarcane industry, caused by the expansion of both the cultivated area and the presence of ethanol and sugar processing plants. We found that the presence of a processing plant has a positive effect in the socioeconomic development of the municipality where the plant is located and in neighboring municipalities. Besides, we found a small negative relationship between increases in the amount of area devoted to sugarcane cultivation in a municipality and the IFDM value for that municipality, which can be explained by job losses in the farming sector, most likely by the recent mechanization process of sugarcane harvesting.     

A LCA (life cycle assessment) of the methanol production from sugarcane bagasse

Nowadays one of the most important environmental issues is the exponential increase of the greenhouse effect by the polluting action of the industrial and transport sectors. The production of biofuels is considered a viable alternative for the pollution mitigation but also to promote rural development. The work presents an analysis of the environmental impacts of the methanol production from sugarcane bagasse, taking into consideration the balance of the energy life cycle and its net environmental impacts, both are included in a LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) approach. The evaluation is done as a case study of a 100,000 t/y methanol plant, using sugarcane bagasse as raw material. The methanol is produced through the BTL (Biomass to Liquid) route. The results of the environmental impacts were compared to others LCA studies of biofuel and it was showed that there are significant differences of environmental performance among the existing biofuel production system, even for the same feedstock. The differences are dependent on many factors such as farming practices, technology of the biomass conversion. With relation to the result of output/input ratio, the methanol production from sugarcane bagasse showed to be a feasible alternative for the substitution of an amount of fossil methanol obtained from natural gas.     

The social viability of ethanol production in Brazil

The social viability of the Brazilian National Alcohol Programme is discussed. First, the national parameters for Brazil are estimated and based on these values alternative appraisal procedures are developed to determine the social cost of ethanol. The main data base is given by the breakdown of the cost of production of ethanol in three Brazilian states, namely Sao Paulo, Pernambuco and Goias. The first two states are traditional producers, whereas Goias provides an indication of the programme's viability in areas where sugarcane production has only recently been expanded. Finally, a sensitivity analysis based on the probable medium- and long-term development of the programme is undertaken, including trends in both cost effectiveness and the behaviour of international oil prices.     

Life cycle assessment and life cycle costing of bioethanol from sugarcane in Brazil

Brazil has always been the pioneer in the application of bioethanol as a main fuel for automobiles, hence environmental and economic analyses of the Brazilian ethanol industries are of crucial importance. This study presents a comparative life cycle assessment (LCA) on gasoline and ethanol as fuels, and with two types of blends of gasoline with bioethanol, all used in a midsize car. The focus is on a main application in Brazil, sugarcane based ethanol. The results of two cases are presented: base case—bioethanol production from sugarcane and electricity generation from bagasse; future case—bioethanol production from both sugarcane and bagasse and electricity generation from wastes. In both cases sugar is co-produced. The life cycles of fuels include gasoline production, agricultural production of sugarcane, ethanol production, sugar and electricity co-production, blending ethanol with gasoline to produce E10 (10% of ethanol) and E85 (85%), and finally the use of gasoline, E10, E85 and pure ethanol. Furthermore, a life cycle costing (LCC) was conducted to give an indication on fuel economy in both cases. The results show that in the base case less GHG is emitted; while the overall evaluation of these fuel options depends on the importance attached to different impacts. The future case is certainly more economically attractive, which has been the driving force for development in the ethanol industry in Brazil. Nevertheless, the outcomes depend very much on the assumed price for crude oil. In LCC a steady-state cost model was used and only the production cost was taken into account. In the real market the prices of fuels are very much dependent on the taxes and subsidies. Technological development can help in lowering both the environmental impact and the prices of the ethanol fuels.     

Sustainability assessment of bio-ethanol production in Brazil considering land use change,GHG emissions and socio-economic aspects

Three sustainability aspects of bioethanol production in Brazil were considered in this paper. Results show that the recent expansion of sugarcane has mostly occurred at the expense of pasturelands and other temporary crops, and that the hypothesis of induced deforestation is not confirmed. Avoided greenhouse gas emissions due to the use of anhydrous ethanol blended with gasoline in Brazil (E25) were estimated as 78%, while this figure would be 70% in case of its use in Europe (E10). Conversely, considering the direct impacts of land use change, the avoided emissions (e.g., ethanol consumed in Europe) would vary from −2.2% (i.e., emissions slightly higher than gasoline) to 164.8% (a remarkable carbon capture effect) depending on the management practices employed previous to land use change and also along sugarcane cropping. In addition, it was shown that where the bulk of sugarcane production takes place, in state of São Paulo, positive socio-economic aspects are observed. The general conclusion is that a significant share of ethanol production in Brazil can be considered sustainable, in particular regarding the three aspects assessed. However, as production conditions are extremely heterogeneous, a generalization of results is not possible.     

Are biofuels a feasible option?

Recently a number of objections have been raised against the use of ethanol produced from agricultural products such as maize, sugarcane, wheat or sugar beets as a replacement for gasoline, despite some of their advantages such as being cleaner and to some extent renewable. We address these objections in this paper. Topics discussed include the “corn connection” (which was theorized to be a cause of deforestation in the Amazonia), the rise of food prices due to ethanol production and the real possibilities of ethanol in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It has been shown that such concerns are grossly exaggerated and that ethanol from sugarcane, as produced in Brazil, is the preferred option for the production of fuel not only in terms of cost but also as a favourable energy balance. Finally, the possibility of expanding ethanol production to other sugar-producing countries is also discussed.     

The benefits of ethanol use for hydrogen production in urban transportation

The purpose of this paper is to describe the benefits of sugar cane ethanol in Brazil, appointing the productivity of this type of fuel based on hectares of plantation, its carbon dioxide cycle and the contribution to reduce the greenhouse effect. In the following step the uses of ethanol for hydrogen production by steam reforming is analyzed and some comparison with natural gas steam reforming is performed. The sugar cane industry in Brazil, in a near future, in the hydrogen era, could be modified according to our purpose, since besides the production of sugar, and ethylic and anhydric alcohol, Brazilian sugar cane industry will also be able to produce biohydrogen.Fuel cells appear like a promising technology for energy generation. Among several technologies in the present, the PEMFC (proton exchange membrane fuel cell) is the most appropriate for vehicles application, because it combines durability, high power density, high efficiency, good response and it works at relatively low temperatures. Besides that it is easy to turn it on and off and it is able to support present vibration in vehicles. A PEMFC's problem is the need of noble catalysts like platinum. Another problem is that CO needs to be in low concentration, requiring a more clean hydrogen to avoid fuel cell deterioration.One part of this paper was developed in Stockholm, where there are some buses within the CUTE (clean urban transport for Europe) project that has been in operation with FC since January 2004. Another part was developed in Guaratinguetá, Brazil. Brazil intends to start up a program of FC buses. As conclusion, this paper shows the economical analysis comparing buses moved by fuel cells using hydrogen by different kinds of production. Electrolyze with wind turbine, natural gas steam reforming and ethanol steam reforming.     

Energetics of Brazilian ethanol: Comparison between assessment approaches

As with any other bioenergy product, bioethanol production requires fossil fuel inputs; hence the alleged benefits of energy security and carbon mitigation depend on the extent to which these inputs are capable of drawing a substantive bioenergetic yield. Brazilian ethanol, made out of sugarcane, has been reported as the most efficient gasoline substitute that is commercially available nowadays. For that reason it has been the object of several analyses on the energetics, i.e. energy balances. These studies surprisingly vary widely according with the scholar approach and are not fully comparable among them due to divergences in the assessment method.     

Combined production of sugar, ethanol and electricity: Thermoeconomic and environmental analysis and optimization

Many works have shown the potential of the Brazilian sugarcane industry as an electricity supplier. However, few studies have studied how this potential could be achieved without jeopardizing the production of sugar and ethanol. Also, the impact of modifications in the cogeneration plant on the costs of production of sugar and ethanol has not been evaluated. This paper presents an approach to the problem of exergy optimization of cogeneration systems in sugarcane mills. A general model to the sugar and ethanol production processes is developed based on data supplied by a real plant, and an exergy analysis is performed. A discussion is made about the variables that most affect the performance of the processes. Then, a procedure is presented to evaluate modifications in the cogeneration system and in the process, and their impact on the production costs of sugar, ethanol and electricity. Furthermore, a discussion on the renewability of processes is made based on an exergy index of renewability. As a general conclusion, besides adding a new revenue to the mill, the generation of excess electricity improves the exergo-environmental performance of the mill as a whole.     

Explaining the experience curve: Cost reductions of Brazilian ethanol from sugarcane

Production costs of bio-ethanol from sugarcane in Brazil have declined continuously over the last three decades. The aims of this study are to determine underlying reasons behind these cost reductions, and to assess whether the experience curve concept can be used to describe the development of feedstock costs and industrial production costs. The analysis was performed using average national costs data, a number of prices (as a proxy for production costs) and data on annual Brazilian production volumes. Results show that the progress ratio (PR) for feedstock costs is 0.68 and 0.81 for industrial costs (excluding feedstock costs). The experience curve of total production costs results in a PR of 0.80. Cost breakdowns of sugarcane production show that all sub-processes contributed to the total, but that increasing yields have been the main driving force. Industrial costs mainly decreased because of increasing scales of the ethanol plants. Total production costs at present are approximately 340 US$/m_ethanol³ (16 US$/GJ). Based on the experience curves for feedstock and industrial costs, total ethanol production costs in 2020 are estimated between US$ 200 and 260/m³ (9.4–12.2 US$/GJ). We conclude that using disaggregated experience curves for feedstock and industrial processing costs provide more insights into the factors that lowered costs in the past, and allow more accurate estimations for future cost developments.     

Energy from sugarcane bagasse under electricity rationing in Brazil: a computable general equilibrium model

In the midst of the institutional reforms of the Brazilian electric sectors initiated in the 1990s, a serious electricity shortage crisis developed in 2001. As an alternative to blackout, the government instituted an emergency plan aimed at reducing electricity consumption. From June 2001 to February 2002, Brazilians were compelled to curtail electricity use by 20%. Since the late 1990s, but especially after the electricity crisis, energy policy in Brazil has been directed towards increasing thermoelectricity supply and promoting further gains in energy conservation. Two main issues are addressed here. Firstly, we estimate the economic impacts of constraining the supply of electric energy in Brazil. Secondly, we investigate the possible penetration of electricity generated from sugarcane bagasse. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used. The traditional sector of electricity and the remainder of the economy are characterized by a stylized top-down representation as nested CES (constant elasticity of substitution) production functions. The electricity production from sugarcane bagasse is described through a bottom-up activity analysis, with a detailed representation of the required inputs based on engineering studies. The model constructed is used to study the effects of the electricity shortage in the preexisting sector through prices, production and income changes. It is shown that installing capacity to generate electricity surpluses by the sugarcane agroindustrial system could ease the economic impacts of an electric energy shortage crisis on the gross domestic product (GDP).     

Sustainability of biofuels in Latin America: Risks and opportunities

Several Latin American countries are setting up biofuel programmes to establish alternative markets for agricultural commodities. This is mainly triggered by the current success of Brazilian bioethanol production for the domestic market and for export. Furthermore, the global biofuel market is expected to increase due to ambitious biofuel programmes in the EU and in the USA. Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica and Guatemala are focusing on bioethanol production from sugarcane whereas biofuel production in Argentina is based on soy biodiesel. Recent developments of the biofuel sector take place extremely rapid especially in Argentina, which became one of the five largest biodiesel producers in the world in 2008. Till date no specific biofuel sustainability certification systems have been implemented in Latin American, as well as on global level. This fact and the predominant use of food crops for biofuel production raise concerns about the sustainability of biofuel production related to environmental and social aspects. This paper provides an overview of the hotspots of conflicts in biofuel production in Latin America. It investigates presently available sustainability tools and initiatives to ensure sustainable biofuel production in Latin America. Finally, it provides an outlook on how to integrate sustainability in the Latin American biofuel sector.