长江三峡区间暴雨洪水分析

利用１９６５～１９８９年三峡区间３４个雨量站逐日降水量资料，计算了区间逐年的面暴雨和洪水，初步揭示了区间暴雨洪水的基本特征。指出三峡区是长江流域多暴雨区之一，平均情况下了７月和９月，暴雨出现机会较基他月份多。三峡区间年最大洪峰出现在５－９月，约有１／３的区间洪水可与万县洪水遭遇，区间洪水可使宜昌流量增加，还计算了２４ｈ，３ｄ区间面暴雨及洪水的频率，为三峡工程二期围堰安全度汛和施工安排，提供了三峡区     

清流河流域场次暴雨洪水特征及其对降水的响应关系

暴雨洪水是主要的自然灾害,分析暴雨洪水特性及其与气候要素的响应关系对流域防洪减灾和水资源可持续利用等方面具有重要意义。根据清流河流域102场暴雨洪水资料,系统分析了场次暴雨洪水过程特征、径流组成以及洪水特征要素与降水指标之间的响应关系。结果表明:场次降雨特征在一定程度上决定了洪水过程变化,水利工程修建和下垫面变化等人类活动对暴雨洪水过程特征有一定影响;场次暴雨洪水的产流系数总体具有递减趋势,但地表径流占径流总量的比率有增大趋势;场次径流量及洪峰流量与场次降水量之间具有较好的相关性,雨强对清流河流域暴雨洪水特征影响相对较小,蓄满产流是清流河流域主要的产流机制。     

HYDROLOGIC CONNECTIVITY OF FLOODPLAINS,NORTHERN MISSOURI—IMPLICATIONS FOR MANAGEMENT AND RESTORATION OF FLOODPLAIN FOREST COMMUNITIES IN DISTURBED LANDSCAPES

Hydrologic connectivity between the channel and floodplain is thought to be a dominant factor determining floodplain processes and characteristics of floodplain forests. We explored the role of hydrologic connectivity in explaining floodplain forest community composition along streams in northern Missouri, USA. Hydrologic analyses at 20 streamgages (207–5827 km² area) document that magnitudes of 2‐year return floods increase systematically with increasing drainage area whereas the average annual number and durations of floodplain‐connecting events decrease. Flow durations above the active‐channel shelf vary little with increasing drainage area, indicating that the active‐channel shelf is in quasi‐equilibrium with prevailing conditions. The downstream decrease in connectivity is associated with downstream increase in channel incision. These relations at streamflow gaging stations are consistent with regional channel disturbance patterns: channel incision increases downstream, whereas upstream reaches have either not incised or adjusted to incision by forming new equilibrium floodplains. These results provide a framework to explain landscape‐scale variations in composition of floodplain forest communities in northern Missouri. Faust ( 2006 ) had tentatively explained increases of flood‐dependent tree species, and decreases of species diversity, with a downstream increase in flood magnitude and duration. Because frequency and duration of floodplain‐connecting events do not increase downstream, we hypothesize instead that increases in relative abundance of flood‐dependent trees at larger drainage area result from increasing size of disturbance patches. Bank‐overtopping floods at larger drainage area create large, open, depositional landforms that promoted the regeneration of shade‐intolerant species. Higher tree species diversity in floodplains with small drainage areas is associated with non‐incised floodplains that are frequently connected to their channels and therefore subject to greater effective hydrologic variability compared with downstream floodplains. Understanding the landscape‐scale geomorphic and hydrologic controls on floodplain connectivity provides a basis for more effective management and restoration of floodplain forest communities. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Communicating (nature‐based) flood‐mitigation schemes using flood‐excess volume

As interest mounts in nature‐based solutions (NBS) for flood mitigation as complementary options to civil‐engineering measures, possible flood‐protection strategies have become more diverse and hence complicated to assess. We offer a straightforward and educational protocol targeted for effectiveness analysis and decision making involving stakeholder participation. It is based on the concept of flood‐excess volume (FEV), the volume exceeding a threshold and generating flood damage, and explores what fraction of FEV is reduced, and at what cost, by particular flood‐mitigation measures. Quantification and interpretation of cost scenarios are facilitated using a graphical display that is easy to understand and encapsulates concepts of flood magnitude, FEV and protection‐measures efficacy. It is exemplified for two recent extreme‐flood events on the River Calder in Mytholmroyd (Yorkshire, United Kingdom) and the River Brague in Biot (Alpes‐Maritimes, France). Each case has different flood‐mitigation measures such as natural water‐retention measures, tree planting, river‐bed widening, or use of reservoirs and floods walls. Our straightforward protocol enables fast, quantifiable and easy‐to‐understand exploration of protection strategies using multiple measures, and in doing so highlights the issue of NBS scalability.     

黄河中游粗泥沙集中来源区产沙规律综述

在前人研究的基础上分析总结了该区特有的暴雨洪水产沙规律：暴雨是侵蚀产沙的主要动力，暴雨、洪水、泥沙之间存在着必然的关系；洪水发生时间集中，峰高量大，暴涨暴落，对黄河中游大洪峰的形成具有决定性影响；侵蚀产沙强烈而粗泥沙集中，输沙能力强，洪水含沙量高，是黄河粗泥沙的集中来源地；河龙区间特别是粗泥沙集中来源区频繁或连续的暴雨洪水对黄河输沙有重要影响；随着治理水平的提高，区域洪水有减小趋势，但泥沙量变化不明显，大部分支流的洪峰流量、洪水含水量反应不敏感，说明一般规模和水平的治理工程还不能有效控制区域大洪水特别是特大洪水的泥沙。     

Development and application of GIS based K-DRUM for flood runoff simulation using radar rainfall

The aim of this paper is to develop a physical based distributed runoff model for flood simulation considering spatially and temporally varied rainfall and to evaluate the feasibility of an offline mode under typhoon and convective storm events for Korean watershed. Additionally, an auto-calibration method for initial soil moisture conditions that have an effect on discharge was proposed, and Namgang watershed (2,293 km²) was applied as study site. Distributed rainfall according to grid resolution was generated by using a pre-process program of radar rainfall from the JNI radar. Also, GIS hydrological parameters were extracted from basic GIS data such as DEM, land cover and soil map, and used as input data of the model. The Namgang watershed was divided into square grids of 500 m resolution and calculated by kinematic wave into an outlet through channel networks to evaluate capability of the developed model.     

清流河流域场次洪水的退水特征及过程模拟

分析场次洪水的退水过程对水利工程的运行调度及水文预报方案的制定具有实际的应用价值。根据清流河流域102场暴雨洪水资料,系统分析了流域的退水过程特征,并采用指数型退水模型对退水过程进行了模拟。结果表明:清流河流域退水流量大小与场次暴雨洪水历时、洪峰大小等因素有关,起退流量介于12~303 m3/s;不同场次的退水系数介于0.01~0.0435之间,长历时暴雨洪水的退水系数相对较小;指数型退水模型能够较好地模拟退水过程。     

Land‐use effects on water quality of a first‐order stream in the Ozark Highlands,mid‐southern United States

Urban and agricultural land uses can alter the natural hydrologic conditions of streams and rivers and often degrade water quality. In the Ozark Highlands of the mid‐southern United States, the climate, topography, soil properties, karst limestone geology, agricultural practices and rapid urbanization make water quality of particular concern due to the increased potential for water quality degradation by contaminant leaching to groundwater and runoff to surface waters. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of season (i.e. dry/cool and wet/warm) and riparian land use (i.e. urban, grazed pasture, ungrazed pasture, wetland, cultivated agriculture and grassland) on surface water quality in a first‐order stream within a diverse agricultural watershed in the Ozark Highlands. Water samples were collected twice a month within each land use during base‐flow conditions from October 2006 through October 2007. Samples were also collected periodically during storm‐flow conditions from October 2006 through December 2007. The greatest in‐stream pH was adjacent to the grazed pasture. In‐stream NO₃‐N concentrations were greatest adjacent to the cultivated agriculture and grassland during the dry/cool season (i.e. October 2006 to March 2007) and averaged 2.67 mg L^?1. In‐stream soluble reactive P (SRP) concentrations were greatest adjacent to the grassland during the wet/warm season (i.e. April 2007 to October 2007) and averaged 0.81 mg L^?1. Concentrations of SRP, K, Mg and Zn were greater during storm‐ than base‐flow conditions and in‐stream As concentrations frequently exceeded 0.01 mg L^?1. Discharge and in‐stream NH₄‐N concentrations were unaffected by land use or season and averaged 0.003 m³ s^?1 and 0.10 mg L^?1, respectively, across all land uses and seasons. Results of this study clearly demonstrate the significant effect of adjacent land use on in‐stream water quality of a first‐order stream in a diverse agricultural watershed and highlight the importance of managing upstream land use in order to regulate downstream water quality. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood Modeling for Complex Terrain Using GIS and Remote Sensed Information

A spatially distributed hydrological model WetSpa (Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, Plants and Atmosphere) working on an hourly time scale is presented in this paper. The model combines elevation, soil and land use data, and predicts flood hydrograph and the spatial distribution of hydrological characteristics in a watershed. The model is tested on a small catchment in Belgium for which topography and soil data are available in GIS form, while the land use and soil cover is obtained from remote sensed images. The resulting calculated discharges compare favorably with the field measurements. Next a 102-year series of measured hourly precipitation data is processed with the model and the resulting hydrographs are analyzed statistically to determine the characteristics of extreme floods. Finally, the simulated extreme peak discharges are compared to the results calculated with design storms. Comparison of the two methods shows that the model is capable to predict both normal and extreme floods. Since the model accounts for spatially distributed hydrological and geophysical characteristics of the catchment, it is suitable for simulating hydrological processes in a complex terrain and for predicting the influence of changes in land use on the hydrological behavior of a river basin.     

Uncertainty Estimation in Flood Inundation Mapping: An Application of Non‐parametric Bootstrapping

Disaster prevention planning is affected in a significant way by a lack of in‐depth understanding of the numerous uncertainties involved with flood delineation and related estimations. Currently, flood inundation extent is represented as a deterministic map without in‐depth consideration of the inherent uncertainties associated with variables such as precipitation, streamflow, topographic representation, modelling parameters and techniques, and geospatial operations. The motivation of this study is to estimate uncertainties in flood inundation mapping based on a non‐parametric bootstrapping method. The uncertainty is addressed through the application of non‐parametric bootstrap sampling to the hydrodynamic modelling software, HEC‐RAS, integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS). This approach was used to simulate different water levels and flow rates corresponding to different return periods from the available database. The study area was the Langat River Basin in Malaysia. The results revealed that the inundated land and infrastructure are subject to a flooding hazard of high‐frequency events and that the flood damage potential is increasing significantly for residential areas and valuable land‐use classes with higher return periods. The proposed methodology, as well as the study outcomes, of this paper could be beneficial to policymakers, water resources managers, insurance companies and other flood‐related stakeholders. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WetSpa Model Application for Assessing Reforestation Impacts on Floods in Margecany–Hornad Watershed,Slovakia

The spatially distributed hydrologic model WetSpa working on a daily or hourly time scale combines elevation, soil and landuse data within GIS, to predict flood hydrographs and spatial distribution of hydrologic characteristics in a watershed. The model is applied to the Margecany–Hornad river basin (1,131 km²) located in Slovakia. Daily hydrometeorological data from 1991 to 2000, including precipitation data from nine stations, temperature data from four stations and evaporation data measured at one station are used as input to the model. Three base maps, i.e., DEM, landuse and soil types are prepared in GIS form, using 100×100 m cell size. Results of the simulations show good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. The model predicts the daily/hourly hydrographs with good accuracy, between 75–80% according to the Nash–Sutcliff criteria. For assessing the impact of forests on floods, the calibrated model is applied for a reforestation scenario using the hourly data of the summer of 2001. The scenario considers a 50% increase of forest areas. The model results show that the reforestation scenario decreases the peak discharge by 12%. Investigation of peak discharges from the whole simulation period, shows that the scenario results are reduced by 18% on average. Also, the time to peak of the simulated hydrograph of the reforestation scenario is 14 h longer than for the present landuse. The results show that the effect of land cover on flood is strongly related to storm characteristics and antecedent soil moisture.     

Hydrodynamic modeling of ephemeral flow in the Iishana channel systems of the Cuvelai Basin—Northern Namibia

The transboundary region of the Iishana system in the western Cuvelai Basin, between southern Angola and northern Namibia, is frequently affected by floods at irregular intervals. As a result, the predominantly rural, subsistence farming population has experienced crop failures, human, and economic losses. To date, very little is known about the generation of floods, flood concentration, and stormwater drainage dynamics in this region. In this study, 2D-hydrodynamic modeling was applied to reconstruct one of the latest major flood events during the rainy season from November 2008 to March 2009 in order to study the runoff behavior and interconnectivity of the Iishana system. The model focused on the eastern part of the Iishana system, which was most affected by floods and flood damage due to the high population density in and around Oshakati, the regional capital. Two main streams were identified noteworthy because they merge and subsequently affect Oshakati. Regarding the simulated flood event water depths vary from 0.1 m to 14 m, with an average of 0.2 m, while water depths above 5 m were attributed to borrow pits. The inundation area ranged up to 1860 km² and the amount of water left after the rainy season on March 25th, 2009, was determined between 0.116 and 0.547 km³, depending on the amount of evapotranspiration considered in the model. Thus, in the Angolan part of the Iishana system, significantly larger quantities of water are available for longer periods of time during the subsequent dry season, whereas the system in Namibia stores less water, resulting in a shorter water retention period.     

基于SWMM的北京市典型城区暴雨洪水模拟分析

以SWMM为基础,选取北京市典型小区,计算不同频率设计暴雨下小区排水效果以及积水、道路坡面流等情况,同时进行不同情景下的暴雨洪水模拟并评价其影响,包括改凸式绿地为平式和凹式、设置蓄洪区等。模拟计算的结果显示,以上3种方式对入渗、径流、洪峰流量、坡面流等均有较大影响,作为城市防洪排水的重要辅助措施,可以极大地缓解排水管道压力,同时削减洪峰、增加入渗。     

Estimating design floods based on the critical storm duration for small watersheds

The objective of this study was to propose a new method to determine design floods using the critical storm duration concept. Five different models, including the Rational, SCS, and Clark methods, were used to estimate peak discharges, while the uniform distribution, Mononobe, Huff, and Yen and Chow methods were applied for the determination of temporal rainfall distribution. Two small watersheds, Baran (HP#6) and Banweol (WS#1), for which watershed hydrologic data were available since 1996, were selected as the study areas. A total of 41 rainfall events was chosen from the study watersheds to calculate peak runoffs and evaluate the performances of the selected hydrological models based on the statistics of RMSE, Nash efficiency criterion (NEC), and R² value. The Clark method performed the best overall among the selected models, with both NEC and R² values greater than 0.95. The Huff method resulted in the longest critical storm duration, which was much greater than the times of concentration. The increase in the recurrence interval decreased the critical storm duration while increasing the peak flow rates. The SCS model estimated the greatest design floods, 94.2 m³/s for HP#6 and 56.4 m³/s for WS#1, with a 25-year return period. The design floods for the study watersheds that were estimated by the selected hydrologic models ranged from 68.3 to 132.1% of those estimated by the Rational method. The greatest to the smallest peak flows resulted from the SCS, WFRP, Clark and Nakayasu methods in order. As an alternative to the Rational method, the WFRP method may be appropriate for rural watershed areas in Korea, where paddy fields commonly exist, whereas the SCS model may be more suitable for urban areas, where most land surfaces are covered with impervious material. It was concluded that the incorporation of a critical storm duration concept can contribute to the advance of design flood estimation method in Korea.     

A dynamic model to predict responses of millets (Echinochloa sp.) to different hydrologic conditions for the Illinois floodplain–River

Millets grow on floodplain mud flats exposed when seasonal floods recede, and the seeds of this plant are an important food source for waterfowl during their spring and autumn migrations in the Mississippi Flyway. Productivity of millets along the Illinois River has declined because of unnaturally frequent floods that inundate the mud flats and drown the plants during the summer growing season. These small floods are caused by operation of the navigation dams on the main channel and by alterations of the floodplain and tributary watersheds and channels. Predictive models are needed to evaluate the most cost‐effective combination of approaches for restoring plant productivity. We developed a moist‐soil plant model that simulates millet growth on 1 m² in response to daily water levels during the summer growing season. The model responds to daily water depth, flood timing (within the growing season), and flood duration, and was qualitatively verified using historical (1938–1959) water levels and plant coverage for three areas along the Illinois River. In the absence of untimely floods, the model predicts net above‐ground primary productivity of ～500 g m^?2 yr^?1 and plant heights of up to 130 cm by the end of the growing season. As expected, growth declines with decreasing land elevation or with more frequent flooding (or a shorter duration of the dry period) at the same elevation. A dry period of >85 days is required to achieve at least 50% of maximum production during the growing season, which is somewhat longer than the 70‐day recommendation based on reported field observations. The model predictions of plant success or failure agree with historical observations, indicating that water regime is a major factor limiting plant success. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2016年7月长江区域性洪水重现期分析

受超强厄尔尼诺事件影响,2016年6～7月西太平洋副热带高压偏强偏西,导致长江梅雨期降雨异常偏多、暴雨频发,中下游地区发生了3场区域性大洪水。通过干支流控制性水文站和水利工程的观测资料,还原出天然来水量过程,统计了洪峰流量和不同时段洪量,结合现有历史洪水资料和工程设计成果,分析了2016年洪水特征和重现期。分析结果表明,宜昌以下干流河段均出现超警戒水位,洪水重现期在5～10 a之间;清江、资水、水阳江、鄂东北诸支流等发生特大洪水,水位、流量超过历史最高纪录,重现期为100～200 a一遇;修水、饶河等发生一般洪水,重现期在20 a一遇以下。     

A GIS‐based approach to mapping probabilities of river bank erosion: regulated River Tummel,Scotland

This study explores the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques for mapping river channel planform change and bank erosion probability. The method used is primarily based on an approach developed by Graf (Graf, W.L. 1984. ‘A probabilistic approach to the spatial assessment of river channel instability’, Water Resour. Res., 20 (7), 953–962), which proposed that bank erosion probability could be determined for any given cell on a floodplain by taking into account (i) its distance laterally and in the upstream direction to the active river channel, and (ii) a value representing flood magnitudes for the given period. In this study, Graf's method is refined by using a GIS approach and by incorporating the influence of geomorphic variables, such as river bank morphology, sediment type and floodplain vegetation, on bank erosion rates. In addition, the technique is applied to a wandering gravel‐bed river of roughly 80 m width, representing a different type and size of river to that used in Graf's study. Thus, the wider applicability of the technique is tested. In addition, the analysis here covers only a short time scale (1988–1994) compared with that used by Graf. The high temporal resolution of this study is enabled by the use of aerial photography and also by the substantial channel changes that occurred within this time period as a result of several high magnitude flood events. The results of the study indicate the usefulness and validity of the approach, particularly with regard to floodplain erosion hazard mapping and the assessment of the effects of altered flood regimes and land use. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于LUCC的秦淮河流域暴雨洪水响应分析

利用CA-Markov模型预测流域2028年土地利用情况,设置3种土地利用情景(自然发展情景、林地限制情景、水田限制情景),建立研究区HEC-HMS水文模型,研究秦淮河流域高速城市化背景下土地利用变化的暴雨洪水响应机制。结果表明①HEC-HMS模型适用于研究区洪水模拟及不同土地利用情景下的洪水响应研究;②洪水规模越小,对土地利用变化的洪水响应越强;③随着流域城市化的演进,土地利用对暴雨洪水的影响程度呈增大趋势,其中自然发展情景下的增加程度最大,水田限制情景次之,林地限制情景最低。研究成果为秦淮河流域LUCC的暴雨洪水响应分析提供了新的思路,也对流域防洪规划与建设有一定的指导意义。     

Age,growth and non‐flood recruitment of two potamodromous fishes in a large semi‐arid/temperate river system

Golden perch Macquaria ambigua (Percichthyidae) and silver perch Bidyanus bidyanus (Terapontidae) are two potamodromous fish species of the Murray‐Darling river system in southeastern Australia. Ageing of these species using thin sections of the sagittal otoliths and validation with known‐age fish revealed: they live for over 26 years; male and female silver perch reach maturity at 3 and 5 years respectively; male and female golden perch reach maturity at 2 and 4 years respectively; both species exhibit sexual dimorphism with larger females; and growth varies (L_∞ silver perch 331–397 mm, golden perch 354–502 mm) among interconnected river systems. Longevity and opportunistic growth are characteristics that are well suited to the semi‐arid and temperate hydrology of this river system. A flood‐recruitment model for these two species, consistent with the ‘flood‐pulse concept’, has previously been assumed to be the main mechanism of recruitment. The model appeared appropriate for this large, low‐gradient river system with productive floodplains. However, in the middle reaches of the Murray River we found that golden perch recruitment was strong in non‐flood years and poor in flood years, and silver perch recruited in all years. These data do not preclude golden perch recruiting during floods as well, because downstream larval drift may have resulted in strong year‐classes being swept downstream of the sampling area during high flows. However, the recruitment models for these species need to be re‐evaluated to include within‐channel flows. Importantly, these flows can be manipulated by river regulation, unlike large floods, and therefore there is potential to enhance recruitment. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江上游流域暴雨洪水相似性判别指标研究

暴雨洪水发生演化的各个阶段之间存在一定的关联性和规律性。以长江上游流域为研究对象,将暴雨洪水指标分为降雨、洪水、时间、雨洪关系、水库、形状和初始指标7大类,共67个指标。通过整理暴雨历史洪水资料,摘录暴雨洪水过程和计算暴雨洪水特征值,结合洪量相似度、洪峰相似度、形状相似度和灰色关联度4种相似性评价方法,优选出降水量、降水历时、起涨流量和洪水涨率4个指标作为相似洪水判别指标。以113场三峡入库洪水为样本进行相似性检验,基于几场典型洪水特征值寻找的历史相似洪水之间的相似度较高,确定性系数都达到了0.9以上。结果表明,降水量、降水历时、起涨流量和洪水涨率4个指标作为相似洪水判别指标,对指导实时洪水预报具有较高的参考价值。研究成果在三峡水库以上长江上游流域进行了试验应用,在寻找历史相似洪水方面具有较好的效果。