河道洪水演算模型评价探析

准确的洪水演算具有很强的理论及现实意义。研究了洪水演算的原理和数学模型,分析了圣维南演算模型与马斯京根演算模型的要点与难点,讨论了圣维南方程的定解条件并叙述了马斯京根演算理论,比较了两模型的优缺点及其适用情况。     

河道水位模拟及全耦合洪水演算模型探讨

本文研究了传统的洪水水位计算方法,推导出描述流量水位关系的新方程,并提出一种模拟水位过程的算法,可以作为独立的水位变换器用于河道沿程水位计算,并可构成全耦合的河道洪水演算模型,用于河道非线性水位流量计算和回水河段水文模拟。     

复杂河道洪水演算方法的探讨

该文首先提出了复杂河道洪水演算问题的复杂性，然后，在分析复杂河道洪水计算特点的基础上，提出一种基于马斯凉干法的分段连续演算方法与模型，并给出了其具体解法与计算步骤。     

多支流汇入的河道洪水演算

分单元独立建模是解决多支流河道洪水演算的有效途径。根据流域下垫面条件和水文站网分布划分单元有利于分析和概化模型参数,根据洪水特性选择模型形式可确保演算精度,通过分段连续演算可简化模型结构,用历史洪水资料综合适配汇流参数曲线可使模型更具实用性。     

VSCM模型在汤河西支流域河道洪水演算中的应用

本文采用VSCM模型（变动态存储系数模型）进行汤河西支流域河道洪水演算,并结合实测水文数据,分析动态存储系数模型在汤河西支流域河道洪水演算的适用性。研究成果表明： VSCM模型可考虑河道地形对洪水演进的影响,洪水模拟精度符合水文预报规范精度要求,可用于研究流域洪水演算。研究成果对于汤河西支流域防洪具有参考价值。     

可分析区间洪水的洪水演算数值优化模型

从数值优化计算角度首次建立了能反映区间洪水变化规律的河道洪水演算一般模式，给出了与马斯京根演算参数和区间时段单位线之间的转换关系。本模型除能反映洪水在河道中运动规律外，还能同时模拟出有区间洪水时的区间时段单位线，解决了在实际工作中急需回答的问题。实际使用表明，该模型结构合理，参数物理概念明确，充分于利用了河道实测洪水和区间降雨信息，具有较强的实用价值。     

感潮河段水位演算模型研究

感潮河段洪水波运动，受潮汐影响，且流量观测资料误差也大，由流量预报再转换为水位，很难达到理想的效果，本文据水量平衡和蓄量水位关系，导出感潮河段的水位演算基本模型，通过上游洪水波和下游潮水波的分离演算，组合叠加，直接预报河道洪水位，既简化了预报方法，又提高了预报精度。     

漫滩河道洪水演算的水动力学模型

利用积分方法导得了漫滩河道全断面水流的积分方程组,应用四点加权隐格式离散方程,建立了漫滩河道洪水演算的一维水动力学模型．该模型考虑了各流道（如滩地、主河槽等）的不同阻力特征,反映了主槽和滩地水流流动路径的差异．用该模型计算了露滩、漫滩和露、漫滩交替的3种水流运动,并与二维RBFVM-2D模型的计算结果进行了比较．以长江宜昌～螺山江段1998年实际洪水过程为例,测试了模型的应用效果．计算结果均表明,本文的一维水动力学模型能较好地模拟漫滩河道的过流特征,并改善了漫滩河道洪水演进的模拟与预测能力．     

海河流域设计洪水及其稳定性分析

经系列延长增加了枯水段 ,海河流域北三河、永定河、大清河、漳卫河主要控制站洪水系列的代表性有所改善 ,设计洪水的稳定性有所提高 ,但因历史洪水考证期和实测系列长度不同 ,设计洪水的稳定性也有差别     

Analysis of dynamic wave model for flood routing in natural rivers

Flooding is a common natural disaster that causes enormous economic, social, and human losses. Of various flood routing methods, the dynamic wave model is one of the best approaches for the prediction of the characteristics of floods during their propagations in natural rivers because all of the terms of the momentum equation are considered in the model. However, no significant research has been conducted on how the model sensitivity affects the accuracy of the downstream hydrograph. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of the input parameters of the dynamic wave model was performed through field applications in natural rivers and routing experiments in artificial channels using the graphical multi-parametric sensitivity analysis (GMPSA). The results indicate that the effects of input parameter errors on the output results are more significant in special situations, such as lower values of Manning’s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the characteristics of a design hydrograph, larger values of the skewness factor and/or time to peak on the channel characteristics, larger values of Manning’s roughness coefficient and/or the bed slope on the space step, and lower values of Manning’s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the time step and weighting factor.     

Mathematical model for flood routing in Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake network

The main stream of the Yangtze River, Dongting Lake, and the river network in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River constitute a complex water system. This paper develops a one-dimensional (1-D) mathematical model for flood routing in the river network of the Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake using the explicit finite volume method. Based on observed data during the flood periods in 1996 and 1998, the model was calibrated and validated, and the results show that the model is effective and has high accuracy. In addition, the one-dimensional mathematical model for the river network and the horizontal two-dimensional (2-D) mathematical model for the Jingjiang flood diversion area were coupled to simulate the flood process in the Jingjiang River, Dongting Lake, and the Jingjiang flood diversion area. The calculated results of the coupled model are consistent with the practical processes. Meanwhile, the results show that the flood diversion has significant effects on the decrease of the peak water level at the Shashi and Chenjiawan hydrological stations near the flood diversion gates, and the effect is more obvious in the downstream than in the upstream.     

蓄滞洪区洪水演进数学模型研究及应用

以二维非恒定流基本控制方程为理论基础,采用有限体积法,建立洪水演进数学模型.根据蓄滞洪区内不同地形条件及洪水调度方案,以相应的水动力学方法,对模型区域的通量、蓄水量和洪水实时淹没水位进行计算,并考虑了公路建设中路基体积、涵洞尺度、取土方量对蓄滞洪区洪水演进的影响.采用恩县洼蓄滞洪区的历史洪水淹没资料进行模型验证,模拟了自然滞洪和分区滞洪两种情况下的洪水淹没过程,模拟结果与历史统计淹没范围基本吻合,预报了公路建设后蓄滞洪区洪水位的变化及风浪对洪水最大淹没范围的影响,为蓄滞洪区中的工程建设和防洪影响评价提供了研究思路和方法.     

融冰洪水演进的马斯京根模型

为解决参数率定过程复杂的问题,将河段内的融冰产生的流量视为河段下断面出流的一部分,构建出适用于文开河融冰时期洪水演进的马斯京根模型,并将优化算法应用到模型参数率定的过程中。以黄河宁蒙河段为例,采用试错法、非线性规划法和智能算法中的遗传算法这3种方法对所构建的模型参数进行率定。模拟结果表明:3种方法所模拟的出流过程线均合格;整体上,非线性规划法模拟的精度最高,其洪水的确定性系数D_c为0.980,过程平均相对误差RE为4.840%;而试错法模拟的洪峰流量更为准确,且冰期模拟精度高于无冰期。本研究为融冰洪水演进的模拟提供了一种新方法。     

基于区间入流预报的右江河道洪水演进

广西右江如果发生大洪水,将对郁江和南宁市的防洪产生严重威胁,因此右江洪水演进分析对南宁市的防洪具有重要意义。选出百色水文站洪峰流量依次增大的5场洪水,用右江百色-田东河段区间内的小流域作为代表性流域率定新安江模型参数,对区间入流洪水进行了预报。根据预报结果采用经参数试错法率定后的马斯京根模型对5场洪水进行了演进,计算了田东水文站断面的流量。结果表明:计算结果与实测流量相对误差较小,相关性系数较大,说明试错法对于马斯京根模型参数求解精度较高。     

Mathematical model for flood routing based on cellular automaton

Increasing frequency and severity of flooding have caused tremendous damage in China, requiring more essential countermeasures to alleviate the damage. In this study, the dynamic simulation property of a cellular automaton was used to make further progress in flood routing. In consideration of terrain＇s influence on flood routing, we regarded the terrain elevation as an auxiliary attribute of a two-dimensional cellular automaton in path selection for flood routing and developed a mathematical model based on a cellular automaton. A numerical case of propagation of an outburst flood in an area of the lower Yangtze River was analyzed with both the fixed-step and variable-step models. The results show that the flood does not spread simultaneously in all directions, but flows into the lower place first, and that the submerged area grows quickly at the beginning, but slowly later on. The final submerged areas obtained from the two different models are consistent, and the flood volume balance test shows that the flood volume meets the requirement of the total volume balance. The analysis of the case shows that the proposed model can be a valuable tool for flood routing.     

离散广义Nash汇流模型及其在河道洪水演算中的应用

基于广义Nash汇流理论,通过定义S曲线或滞蓄曲线,简化了广义Nash汇流计算公式,并推导得出了离散广义Nash汇流模型,将河道下断面出流过程表述为时段初、末入流量与当前时刻及之前若干时刻出流量的线性组合,权重系数由S曲线或滞蓄曲线得出。该模型物理概念明确,又有一定统计意义,结构简单,形式直观,便于在实际中推广应用,最后通过实例分析检验了模型的预报能力。