广东省区域物流与区域经济增长关系的实证研究

根据1978～2009年的广东省年度数据,选取代表区域物流发展水平的3个重要指标,对广东省经济增长与物流业发展之间的关系进行研究。建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应模型分析经济增长与物流发展间的联动效应,并运用协整理论和Granger因果检验分析经济增长与物流业的长期关系和因果关系。结果表明,广东省物流业与经济增长之间保持着长期协整关系,长期来看,物流业的发展会促进经济增长。广东省经济增长带动了物流业的快速发展,但是,由于物流业仍然处于发展的初期阶段,对经济增长的促进作用还不是很显著。对广东省发展物流业提出了几点建议。     

人力资本投入与经济增长的协整与因果检验分析

本论文利用中国1978～2006年的数据,对中国人力资本投入与经济增长进行协整分析和Granger因果关系检验,在分析的过程中比较了人力资本和物质资本对经济增长的作用,最后对实证分析的结果进行解释.     

济南市专利产出与经济发展关系的实证分析及对策研究

本文对济南市专利产出对经济发展的影响进行理论分析和实证研究,探讨专利产出与经济产出的相关性,并得到数学回归模型。结合近年来专利运行情况提出了完善专利运行及促进济南市经济发展的相关对策建议。     

基于图模型方法的Granger因果性检验

Granger因果性是衡量系统变量间动态关系的重要依据.本文利用图模型方法研究变量间的Granger因果性,建立了Granger因果图.基于条件互信息和置换检验法建立了Granger因果图结构的辨识方法,利用混沌理论中的关联积分估计相应的检验统计量,给出了统计量的渐进分布,并用所给方法研究国际主要股市间的Granger因果关系.     

现代物流与区域经济增长关系的实证研究

以长株潭地区为例运用系统动力学方法构建物流与经济发展的系统动力学模型,运用Logistic模型确定现代物流与地区经济增长的数量关系后进行线性回归分析及假设检验.从实证研究的角度定性和定量地分析现代物流对区域经济增长的作用机理,通过实证研究并结合理论分析得出的结论表明现代物流对区域经济增长有促进作用.     

政府研发补贴与企业创新投入:数量激励抑或质量导向?

如何有效发挥政府“有形之手”对企业创新的激励作用,优化公共资源配置效率,是实施创新驱动战略和推动经济高质量发展的关键一环。基于2001-2017年中国非金融类A股上市公司面板数据,用研发投资衡量创新投入数量,用专利产出衡量创新投入转化质量,从理论上分析政府研发补贴对企业创新投入数量和投入转化质量的作用机制,并采用固定效应模型、联立方程模型等进行实证检验。结果发现:第一,政府研发补贴能够显著提高企业研发投资额,表明政府补贴对企业创新投入存在数量激励,同时,企业研发投资对专利产出具有显著正向影响,增加创新投入资金数量是确保投入转化质量的必要非充分条件;第二,在控制内生性后,政府研发补贴对企业专利产出具有不显著负向影响,表明政府研发补贴未能形成创新投入质量导向;第三,在政府干预程度较低、法治水平较好的情况下,政府研发补贴能够同时提升企业研发投资与专利产出,证实寻租行为、逆向选择行为和缺乏政府监管等是政府补贴无法有效发挥投入质量导向作用的潜在原因。     

“一带一路”与我国沿线地区经济高质量发展

实现区域协调发展,是我国迈入高质量发展新阶段、开启现代化新征程中,解决经济发展不平衡问题的重要任务之一。显然,区域协调发展不应只是经济增速或总量,增长效率更值得关注。“一带一路”倡议作为我国开放发展模式转型、促进国内区域协调发展尝试,在沿线地区经济发展中具体发挥了怎样的作用值得研究。在特征事实分析并提出待检验理论假说基础之上,利用2006-2017年省级面板数据,实证检验“一带一路”倡议对我国沿线地区经济增长效率的作用,并进一步分析产业协同集聚可能发挥的中介作用的研究发现,产业集聚是“一带一路”影响沿线地区经济增长效率的重要作用机制,对东部地区而言,由于其作用主要表现为抑制,从而不利于提升经济增长效率;但却显著提升了中西部地区经济增长效率。上述差异表明,在提高经济增长效率方面,中西部地区从“一带一路”倡议中更容易受益,从而在短期内更加有助于“经济增长效率”层面的区域协同发展。但长期来看,东部地区需要在着力推动转型升级和高端化发展中形成更高水平的产业集聚,如此才能实现真正意义上的可持续均衡发展。     

中美膜领域科研实力比较——基于文献计量学的视角

膜分离技术是实施国家绿色发展理念的重要组成部分,其推广应用的覆盖面可以反映出一个国家过程工业、能源利用和环境保护的水平.在中美战略竞争的大背景下,准确把握中美在膜领域基础研究的竞争力对中国膜产业界针对性地选择未来成长方向和道路具有重要意义.本文采用文献计量学的方法,利用Web of Science核心合集数据库,从科研产出数量、科研产出质量和科研产出影响力3个维度,对比2000到2018年间中美两国膜领域的基础研究实力的变化趋势;利用incopat专利数据库对中美两国在气体分离膜、离子交换膜的专利情况进行比较分析,以判断中美高新膜技术的技术创新能力.研究结果表明:(1)在基础科学研究层面,中国膜领域的科研产出数量于2007年首次超越美国,并在2013年后的5年迅速拉大与美国的差距;科研产出质量于2011年实现小幅反超并以微弱优势稳定持续至今;科研产出影响力于2017年实现对美国超越.(2)在技术创新竞争力层面,中国与美国仍存在明显的差距,中国在膜领域基础研究的优势没有完全转化为对技术创新的贡献.突出表现为:中国膜企业仍未成为技术创新的主体;中国在成果转化环节仍有明显差距,中国专利转让总量仅为美国10%～20%.     

企业经营者激励的棘轮效应问题研究

针对基本棘轮效应模型存在的不足之处,引入柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,重新建立了企业动态激励的棘轮效应模型;基于系统论观点,将第1期产出对第2期产出的影响写入模型中,结果证明这将有助于弱化对经营者进行动态激励过程中的棘轮效应;提出了一系列有利于企业经营者才能发挥的长期动态激励措施.     

金融集聚、消费升级与经济增长质量

中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。在理论分析金融集聚对经济增长质量的影响以及消费升级的中介作用机理的基础上,基于我国2001-2017年30个省(市、自治区)数据构建动态面板数据模型,实证研究发现金融集聚显著提升了经济增长质量,经过一系列稳健性检验和内生性问题处理后,这一结论依然成立。金融集聚的经济增长质量提升效应存在异质性,金融集聚能够提升东部、中部地区以及制度质量较高地区的经济增长质量,对西部地区和制度质量较低地区的经济增长质量影响不显著。机制研究表明,消费升级是金融集聚促进经济高质量发展的重要渠道。因此,金融服务应以消费升级为主导,在此基础上继续深化市场化改革,同时金融体系内部要根据各地区实际情况建立多层次、多网络且与实际情况相匹配的金融服务体系。     

Time-varying causality between research output and economic growth in US

This main purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal relationship between knowledge (research output) and economic growth in US over 1981–2011. To overcome the issues of ignoring possible instability and hence, falsely assuming a constant relationship through the years, we use bootstrapped Granger non-causality tests with fixed-size rolling-window to analyze time-varying causal links between two series. Instead of just performing causality tests on the full sample which assumes a single causality relationship, we also perform Granger causality tests on the rolling sub-samples with a fixed-window size. Unlike the full-sample Granger causality test, this method allows us to capture any structural shifts in the model, as well as, the evolution of causal relationships between sub-periods, with the bootstrapping approach controlling for small-sample bias. Full-sample bootstrap causality tests reveal no causal relationship between research and growth in the US. Further, parameter stability tests indicate that there were structural shifts in the relationship, and hence, we cannot entirely rely on full-sample results. The bootstrap rolling-window causality tests show that during the sub-periods of 2003–2005 and 2009, GDP Granger caused research output; while in 2010, the causality ran in the opposite direction. Using a two-state regime switching vector smooth autoregressive model, we find unidirectional Granger causality from research output to GDP in the full sample.     

Effects of patent policy on innovation outputs and commercialization: evidence from universities in China

As the important source of scientific and technological innovation in China, the improvement of productivity from the patent commercialization in universities and research institutes is of great significance to the promotion of China’s sustainable economic development. Despite the quantity of patent applications from universities has increased dramatically in recent years, the rate of patent commercialization is somewhat lower than we expect. The purpose of our study is to examine whether the incentive patent policy has effectively enhanced the patent outputs and commercialization of universities in China. We determine the specific patent policy based on the information collection and measure the specific effect of the patent policy by using the data of the 64 universities that were directly under the Ministry of Education from 2009 to 2015. As a result, we find that although the policy has increased a university’s patent output, it does not encourage the patent’s commercialization. This is because to a certain extent, the policy has a negative impact on the enthusiasm of the university patent commercialization. Therefore, we argue that patent policies focusing on the quantity in the short term can improve the innovation output but will have a negative impact on university’s sustainable development in the long run.     

Educational reforms and internationalization of universities: evidence from major regions of the world

Internationalization of universities has become a worldwide phenomenon as global economic integration continues to make its way forcefully into the higher education. The objective of the study is to develop a model for internationalization of universities with the transformation of some promising macroeconomic variables i.e., educational reforms and economic growth in the seven largest regions of the world [namely, East Asia and Pacific (sample 25 countries); Europe and Central Asia (40 countries); Latin America and Caribbean (27 countries); Middle East and North Africa (17 countries); North America (22 countries); South Asia (7 countries) and Sub-Saharan Africa (21 countries)]. The data has been analyzed by panel fixed effect regression from the period of 1990–2011. In addition to transform inputs into output, the study employed eleven indicators of education and five indicators for growth, where the resulting vector is internationalization. The results show the dynamic linkages between educational indicators and economic factors in the selected regions of the World. In East Asia and Pacific region, tertiary and higher education expenditures per student increase the economic factors. Higher education is a powerful driver of long-term growth in Europe and Central Asia. Governments of the state should have to focus on higher education enrolment, as it does not have any significant contribution to increase GDP; gross capital formation and FDI in Latin America and Caribbean region. Higher education enrolment in MENA region significantly increases growth factors on the cost of increase gross national expenditures. Investment in general education and other generic human capital is of the utmost importance in creating an enabling environment for FDI in North America. It is imperative for South Asia to encourage the skill levels and education opportunities for females, in order to maximize the effects of FDI on the female human capital stock and therefore economic growth. Tertiary school enrolment and tertiary expenditures per student identified the importance of tertiary education in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results conclude that educational indicators improve the economic gains, which ultimately reap out the benefit of internationalization.     

Patent predictive price-to-book ratio (PB) on improving investment performance -- Evidence in China

Patent is strongly meaningful for most countries’ technology development and economy growth. China is the world largest patent application country and has the world No.2 stock market. In this research, China listed companies (A-shares) in Shanghai main board, Shenzhen main board, GE board, and SME board from 2016 to 2018 were applied to discuss the prediction ability of patent indicators to financial performance. The patent prediction equations for quantitatively predicting the price-to-book ratio (PB) by patent indicators were constructed via Granger Causality test and time series regression. The stock selection criteria based on the patent predictive PB were further discussed. The traditional value investors consider stocks with PB values under 3.0 are undervalued. It was found that most stock portfolios selected by either the lower predictive PB or the higher predictive PB growth rate had higher performance above the traditional PB investment strategy. The criteria also worked well on GE board and SME board even though these stock boards were seriously impacted to decline by the China-US trade conflict. Though the overall economic environment fluctuated, the patent prediction algorithm proposed was proved to be useful to discover good stock portfolios and improve traditional PB investment strategy     

The causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from Europe

The European Union Renewable Energy Directive sets an objective of increasing the renewable energy share of the used renewable energy in the EU by 2020. The objective of this study is to analyze and compare the short-run and long-run relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in 12 European Union countries and to derive implications for renewable energy policy. To do so, we apply panel vector error correction model using the available annual data from 1990 to 2014 on 12 European Union countries. Moreover, Granger causality test is conducted to examine whether there exists any causal linkage between economic growth and renewable energy consumption. The findings indicate the presence of unidirectional causality running from economic growth to renewable energy consumption in the short run. However, in the long run, a bidirectional causal relationship between the variables in question exists.     

The need for a regional patent organisation in South-East Asia

A rapid growth of industry and commerce has taken place in South-East Asia during recent years and this is expected to continue. With the development of technology comes the need for improved protection of industrial property. This is best achieved through cooperation between the ASEAN nations on the development of a more efficient patent system.The aim of this article is to inventory the development of patent systems in this region and to sketch how a major improvement could be obtained by the establishment of a regional patent organization. The prospects at present however appear to be rather poor.     

Europe should stop taxing innovation

After nearly 48 years of failure to create the EU patent, language issues and the design of a centralised patent-litigation court still dominate headlines. But behind these issues there are high financial stakes and control power to play for. The recent EU Council deal on an ‘enhanced’ European patent system does not solve the above problems, and has not eliminated lingering governance issues. The risk for Europe is that a final patent agreement might be reached that does not cure the system of its major ills, and thus does not bring about any significant improvement for those that need it most: entrepreneurs and innovative companies starting out on the innovation process. The creation of an effective single EU patent requires (i) English-only post-grant translation, (ii) the end of nationally granted patents, (iii) phasing-out of the current ‘European patent’, (iv) lower fees for young innovative companies, and (v) a radical shake-up of the governance of the European Patent Office.     

The influence of scientific research output of academics on economic growth in South Africa: an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) application

An increasing number of researchers have recently shown interest in the relationship between economic growth of a country and its research output, measured in scientometric indicators. The answer is not only of theoretical interest but it can also influence the specific policies aimed at the improvement of a country’s research performance. Our paper focuses on this relationship. We argue that research output is a manifestation of the improvement of human capital in the economy. We examine this relationship specifically in South Africa for the period 1980–2008. Using the autoregressive distributed lag method, we investigate the relationship between GDP and the comparative research performance of the country in relation to the rest of the world (the share of South African papers compared to the rest of the world). The relationship is confirmed for individual fields of science (biology and biochemistry, chemistry, material sciences, physics, psychiatry and psychology). The results of this study indicate that in South Africa for the period 1980–2008 the comparative performance of the research output can be considered as a factor affecting the economic growth of the country. Similarly, the results confirm the results of Vinkler (2008) and Lee et al. (2011). In contrast, economic growth did not influence the research output of the country for the same period. Policy implications are also discussed.     

Longitudinal relationship between economic development and occupational accidents in China

The relativity between economic development and occupational accidents is a debated topic. Compared with the development courses of both economic development and occupational accidents in China during 1953–2008, this paper used statistic methods such as Granger causality test, cointegration test and impulse response function based on the vector autoregression model to investigate the relativity between economic development and occupational accidents in China from 1953 to 2008. Owing to fluctuation and growth scale characteristics of economic development, two dimensions including economic cycle and economic scale were divided. Results showed that there was no relationship between occupational accidents and economic scale during 1953–1978. Fatality rate per 10⁵ workers was a conductive variable to gross domestic product per capita during 1979–2008. And economic cycle was an indicator to occupational accidents during 1979–2008. Variation of economic speed had important influence on occupational accidents in short term. Thus it is necessary to adjust Chinese occupational safety policy according to tempo variation of economic growth.