Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming.

Climate change affects plants in natural and agricultural ecosystems throughout the world but little work has been done on the effects of climate change on plant disease epidemics. To illustrate such effects, a weather-based disease forecasting model was combined with a climate change model predicting UK temperature and rainfall under high- and low-carbon emissions for the 2020s and 2050s. Multi-site data collected over a 15-year period were used to develop and validate a weather-based model forecasting severity of phoma stem canker epidemics on oilseed rape across the UK. This was combined with climate change scenarios to predict that epidemics will not only increase in severity but also spread northwards by the 2020s. These results provide a stimulus to develop models to predict the effects of climate change on other plant diseases, especially in delicately balanced agricultural or natural ecosystems. Such predictions can be used to guide policy and practice in adapting to effects of climate change on food security and wildlife.     

A systems perspective on responses to climate change

The science of climate change integrates many scientific fields to explain and predict the complex effects of greenhouse gas concentrations on the planet’s energy balance, weather patterns, and ecosystems as well as economic and social systems. A changing climate requires responses to curtail climate forcing as well as to adapt to impending changes. Responses can be categorized into mitigation and adaptation—the former involving efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the latter involving strategies to adapt to predicted changes. These responses must be of significant scale and extent to be effective, but significant tradeoffs and unintended effects must be avoided. Concepts and science based on systems theory are needed to reduce the risk of unintended consequences from potential responses to climate change. We propose expanding on a conventional risk-based approach to include additional ways of analyzing risks and benefits, such as considering potential cascading ecological effects, full life cycle environmental impacts, and unintended consequences, as well as considering possible co-benefits of responses. Selected responses to climate change are assessed with this expanded set of criteria, and we find that mitigation measures that involve reducing emissions of greenhouse gases that provide corollary benefits are likely to have less negative indirect impacts than large-scale solar radiation management approaches. However, because effects of climate change are unavoidable in the near and medium-term, adaptation strategies that will make societies more resilient in the face of impending change are essential to sustainability.     

A rapid health impact assessment of the Turkwel Gorge hydroelectric dam and proposed irrigation project

A rapid health assessment of the Turkwel Gorge hydroelectric dam and proposed irrigation project in Kenya is described. The project will lead to increased risk of a number of communicable diseases including malaria and schistosomiasis, to the human population in the surrounding area. Mitigation measures are available and should be incorporated in the design and operation of the irrigation project to maximise cost-effectiveness.     

Mobilising the potential towards low-carbon emissions society in Asia

Emission of CO₂, CH₄, and NO _x is among the main sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted through human activities such as fossil fuels combustion for power, heat and transportation, industrial processes, and land-use change. Low-carbon emission has become synonymous with GHG emission, which is often expressed in t CO₂ eq. as derived from the major GHG. However, CO₂ emission from fossil fuel constitutes just about 2/3 of GHGs. Low-carbon emission has received high publicity in recent years as a major reason for the potential mitigation of climate change. Achieving low GHG emission targets while decoupling the economic growth from high emissions, pollution, and resource use is desirable. This paper reviews the low-carbon emissions initiatives to develop resilient growth strategies to reduce GHG emissions in Asia and beyond. Four major initiatives, including the modelling of GHG emission and mitigation initiative; sustainable energy systems; sustainable waste management; and education and community outreach, are reviewed for mobilising the potential towards low-carbon emissions societies in Asia. Cooperation from major stakeholders, e.g. government, policy makers, financial institutions, private investors, industrial, commercial sector, residential, has been needed towards realising the goal.     

我国主要农作物生产碳汇结构现状与优化途径

大气中温室气体浓度的增加引起的全球气候变化成为威胁人类生存和发展的一大难题。农作物的碳汇功能对气候变化也起着重要的调节作用。农作物的生产过程既是碳源也是碳汇。本文收集整理分析了我国主要农作物农作系统的相关碳排放参数,估算了农田碳汇碳源效应及其动态变化特征,对作物生产系统的碳投入产出进行定量评价。为我国发展低碳农业规划、政策制定提供了依据,并提出了我国农田碳汇结构的优化途径。     

Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds

While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2°C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50?:?50 chance of warming greater than 3.5°C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts and adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective (+2°C) and possible reality (+4°C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by ensembles of climate models with global temperature increases of 2°C and 4°C. We combine these with UN-based population growth scenarios to explore the relative importance of population change and climate change for water availability. We find that the projected changes in global surface run-off from the ensemble show an increase in spatial coherence and magnitude for a +4°C world compared with a +2°C one. In a +2°C world, population growth in most large river basins tends to override climate change as a driver of water stress, while in a +4°C world, climate change becomes more dominant, even compensating for population effects where climate change increases run-off. However, in some basins where climate change has positive effects, the seasonality of surface run-off becomes increasingly amplified in a +4°C climate.     

Peatland hydrology and carbon release: why small-scale process matters

Peatlands cover over 400 million hectares of the Earth's surface and store between one-third and one-half of the world's soil carbon pool. The long-term ability of peatlands to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere means that they play a major role in moderating global climate. Peatlands can also either attenuate or accentuate flooding. Changing climate or management can alter peatland hydrological processes and pathways for water movement across and below the peat surface. It is the movement of water in peats that drives carbon storage and flux. These small-scale processes can have global impacts through exacerbated terrestrial carbon release. This paper will describe advances in understanding environmental processes operating in peatlands. Recent (and future) advances in high-resolution topographic data collection and hydrological modelling provide an insight into the spatial impacts of land management and climate change in peatlands. Nevertheless, there are still some major challenges for future research. These include the problem that impacts of disturbance in peat can be irreversible, at least on human time-scales. This has implications for the perceived success and understanding of peatland restoration strategies. In some circumstances, peatland restoration may lead to exacerbated carbon loss. This will also be important if we decide to start to create peatlands in order to counter the threat from enhanced atmospheric carbon.     

Spectrally Selective Nanocomposite Textile for Outdoor Personal Cooling

Outdoor heat stress poses a serious public health threat and curtails industrial labor supply and productivity, thus adversely impacting the wellness and economy of the entire society. With climate change, there will be more intense and frequent heat waves that further present a grand challenge for sustainability. However, an efficient and economical method that can provide localized outdoor cooling of the human body without intensive energy input is lacking. Here, a novel spectrally selective nanocomposite textile for radiative outdoor cooling using zinc oxide nanoparticle–embedded polyethylene is demonstrated. By reflecting more than 90% solar irradiance and selectively transmitting out human body thermal radiation, this textile can enable simulated skin to avoid overheating by 5–13 °C compared to normal textile like cotton under peak daylight condition. Owing to its superior passive cooling capability and compatibility with large‐scale production, this radiative outdoor cooling textile is promising to widely benefit the sustainability of society in many aspects spanning from health to economy.     

The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases

Our paper documents that land-use change impacts regional and global climate through the surface-energy budget, as well as through the carbon cycle. The surface-energy budget effects may be more important than the carbon-cycle effects. However, land-use impacts on climate cannot be adequately quantified with the usual metric of 'global warming potential'. A new metric is needed to quantify the human disturbance of the Earth's surface-energy budget. This 'regional climate change potential' could offer a new metric for developing a more inclusive climate protocol. This concept would also implicitly provide a mechanism to monitor potential local-scale environmental changes that could influence biodiversity.     

Deploying a Recall Mitigation Framework for Systems Engineering

This article proposes a novel safety framework for complex systems, called Recall Mitigation Framework, that assists engineering teams in identifying recall risk factors during the systems engineering process. Current frameworks do not address recalls for complex systems. A modified ISO 42010:2011 for identifying multiple stakeholders of complex systems is also proposed, as the current architecture is tailored for systems with only one stakeholder. Existing system engineering tools such as Failure Mode and Effects Analysis are incorporated to identify risks factors. To measure recall propensity of each recall factor, a new formula, called Recall Index (pRI), was also developed and applied in this research. Four activity phases are included within the framework: Stakeholder Identification, Data Acquisition, Statistical Safety Analysis, and Risk Review. Both the Recall Mitigation Framework and pRI are validated through a case study involving the engineering of a new vehicle model in the automotive industry. Use of the framework provided better insights to the engineering team by employing statistical methods to identify three predictive factors that influence vehicle recalls: fuel economy, warranty coverage, and crashworthiness. Managers in other industries can utilize this framework early in the systems engineering lifecycle to identify potential risk factors and prevent a costly recall campaign.     

Current costing models: are they suitable for allocating health resources? The example of fall injury prevention in Australia

The example of fall injury among older people is used to define and illustrate how current Australian systems for allocation of health resources perform for funding emerging public health issues. While the examples are Australian, the allocation and priority setting methods are common in the health sector in all developed western nations. With an ageing population the number of falls injuries in Australia and the cost of treatment will rise dramatically over the next 20-50 years. Current methods of allocating funds within the health system are not well suited to meeting this coming epidemic. The information requirements for cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness measures cannot be met. Marginal approaches to health funding are likely to continue to fund already well-funded treatment or politically driven prevention processes and to miss the opportunity for new prevention initiatives in areas that do not have a high political profile. Fall injury is one of many emerging areas that struggle to make claims for funding because the critical mass of intervention and evidence of its impact is not available. The beneficiaries of allocation failure may be those who treat the disease burden that could have been easily prevented. Changes to allocation mechanisms, data systems and new initiative funding practices are required to ensure that preventative strategies are able to compete on an equal footing with treatment approaches for mainstream health funding.     

Climate-induced population displacements in a 4°C+ world

Massive population displacements are now regularly presented as one of the most dramatic possible consequences of climate change. Current forecasts and projections show that regions that would be affected by such population movements are low-lying islands, coastal and deltaic regions, as well as sub-Saharan Africa. Such estimates, however, are usually based on a 2°C temperature rise. In the event of a 4°C+ warming, not only is it likely that climate-induced population movements will be more considerable, but also their patterns could be significantly different, as people might react differently to temperature changes that would represent a threat to their very survival. This paper puts forward the hypothesis that a greater temperature change would affect not only the magnitude of the associated population movements, but also--and above all--the characteristics of these movements, and therefore the policy responses that can address them. The paper outlines the policy evolutions that climate-induced displacements in a 4°C+ world would require.     

关于低碳发展的认识和思考

气候变化给全人类带来了灾害,彰显低碳发展的必要性和紧迫性。笔者分析了发达国家和发展中国家采取的发展低碳经济措施,阐述了我国在节能减排和发展低碳经济方面做出的巨大努力。文章认为合理解决气候变化问题,就要坚持"共同但有区别的责任",以人均累计排放量分配各国的责任。我国实现低碳发展有很多制约因素,但我国需要走低碳发展的道路。文章提出了中国发展低碳经济的若干建议,并强调要以正确的"发展理念"为指导,迎接低碳发展的挑战。     

Re-engineering cities: a framework for adaptation to global change

Urban areas are expected to continue their rapid growth in the twenty-first century. Globally, cities are major sources of greenhouse gases emissions and their high population densities make them potential focal points of vulnerability to global environmental change. Moreover, their reach, in terms of flows of materials and resources, extends far outside their borders. Evidently, it is no longer tenable to consider urban systems to be static artefacts constructed in a stable environment, nor continue to divorce them from the global context that influences many of the climatic and socio-economic changes within cities. Furthermore, the uncertainty in the future climatic and socio-economic conditions poses significant challenges for planners. A framework is proposed for analysing urban systems with evidence-based tools over extended time scales. This forms the basis of a manifesto for future challenges and research directions for this critical subject area, which ultimately will help engineers and urban planners to better understand the areas for which they are responsible and to develop adaptation strategies that can tackle the challenges posed by long-term global change and lead to more sustainable cities.     

The aesthetics of water and land: a promising concept for managing scarce water resources under climate change

The eastern Mediterranean faces a severe water crisis: water supply decreases due to climate change, while demand increases due to rapid population growth. The GLOWA Jordan River project generates science-based management strategies for maximizing water productivity under global climate change. We use a novel definition of water productivity as the full range of services provided by landscapes per unit blue (surface) and green (in plants and soil) water. Our combined results from climatological, ecological, economic and hydrological studies suggest that, in Israel, certain landscapes provide high returns as ecosystem services for little input of additional blue water. Specifically, cultural services such as recreation may by far exceed that of food production. Interestingly, some highly valued landscapes (e.g. rangeland) appear resistant to climate change, making them an ideal candidate for adaptive land management. Vice versa, expanding irrigated agriculture is unlikely to be sustainable under global climate change. We advocate the inclusion of a large range of ecosystem services into integrated land and water resources management. The focus on cultural services and integration of irrigation demand will lead to entirely different but productive water and land allocation schemes that may be suitable for withstanding the problems caused by climate change.     

河北省低碳经济发展水平综合评价及其时空差异分析

为应对全球气候变暖以及资源枯竭、环境恶化的挑战,发展低碳经济已成为中国应对全球气候变化以及保持经济可持续发展的必然选择。将低碳经济研究从理论阶段向实际应用阶段转移的重要步骤是对低碳经济发展水平进行评价及对其时空差异变化进行研究。论文采用一套河北省低碳经济指标体系对该省的低碳经济发展状况进行综合评价,并运用时空分析法对评价结果进行分析,以验证评价结果是否与实际低碳经济发展状况相符。本研究有助于促进城市经济结构调整,完善低碳经济技术支撑体系,为我国低碳经济提供科学依据和决策参考。     

Issues in the interpretation of climate model ensembles to inform decisions

There is a scientific consensus regarding the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This has led to substantial efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions and thereby mitigate the impacts of climate change on a global scale. Despite these efforts, we are committed to substantial further changes over at least the next few decades. Societies will therefore have to adapt to changes in climate. Both adaptation and mitigation require action on scales ranging from local to global, but adaptation could directly benefit from climate predictions on regional scales while mitigation could be driven solely by awareness of the global problem; regional projections being principally of motivational value. We discuss how recent developments of large ensembles of climate model simulations can be interpreted to provide information on these scales and to inform societal decisions. Adaptation is most relevant as an influence on decisions which exist irrespective of climate change, but which have consequences on decadal time-scales. Even in such situations, climate change is often only a minor influence; perhaps helping to restrict the choice of 'no regrets' strategies. Nevertheless, if climate models are to provide inputs to societal decisions, it is important to interpret them appropriately. We take climate ensembles exploring model uncertainty as potentially providing a lower bound on the maximum range of uncertainty and thus a non-discountable climate change envelope. An analysis pathway is presented, describing how this information may provide an input to decisions, sometimes via a number of other analysis procedures and thus a cascade of uncertainty. An initial screening is seen as a valuable component of this process, potentially avoiding unnecessary effort while guiding decision makers through issues of confidence and robustness in climate modelling information. Our focus is the usage of decadal to centennial time-scale climate change simulations as inputs to decision making, but we acknowledge that robust adaptation to the variability of present day climate encourages the development of less vulnerable systems as well as building critical experience in how to respond to climatic uncertainty.     

Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications

The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change commits signatories to preventing 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system', leaving unspecified the level of global warming that is dangerous. In the late 1990s, a limit of 2°C global warming above preindustrial temperature was proposed as a 'guard rail' below which most of the dangerous climate impacts could be avoided. The 2009 Copenhagen Accord recognized the scientific view 'that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius' despite growing views that this might be too high. At the same time, the continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions in the past decade and the delays in a comprehensive global emissions reduction agreement have made achieving this target extremely difficult, arguably impossible, raising the likelihood of global temperature rises of 3°C or 4°C within this century. Yet, there are few studies that assess the potential impacts and consequences of a warming of 4°C or greater in a systematic manner. Papers in this themed issue provide an initial picture of the challenges facing a world that warms by 4°C or more, and the difficulties ahead if warming is to be limited to 2°C with any reasonable certainty. Across many sectors--coastal cities, agriculture, water stress, ecosystems, migration--the impacts and adaptation challenges at 4°C will be larger than at 2°C. In some cases, such as farming in sub-Saharan Africa, a +4°C warming could result in the collapse of systems or require transformational adaptation out of systems, as we understand them today. The potential severity of impacts and the behavioural, institutional, societal and economic challenges involved in coping with these impacts argue for renewed efforts to reduce emissions, using all available mechanisms, to minimize the chances of high-end climate change. Yet at the same time, there is a need for accelerated and focused research that improves understanding of how the climate system might behave under a +4°C warming, what the impacts of such changes might be and how best to adapt to what would be unprecedented changes in the world we live in.     

Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world

Agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa faces daunting challenges, which climate change and increasing climate variability will compound in vulnerable areas. The impacts of a changing climate on agricultural production in a world that warms by 4°C or more are likely to be severe in places. The livelihoods of many croppers and livestock keepers in Africa are associated with diversity of options. The changes in crop and livestock production that are likely to result in a 4°C+ world will diminish the options available to most smallholders. In such a world, current crop and livestock varieties and agricultural practices will often be inadequate, and food security will be more difficult to achieve because of commodity price increases and local production shortfalls. While adaptation strategies exist, considerable institutional and policy support will be needed to implement them successfully on the scale required. Even in the 2°C+ world that appears inevitable, planning for and implementing successful adaptation strategies are critical if agricultural growth in the region is to occur, food security be achieved and household livelihoods be enhanced. As part of this effort, better understanding of the critical thresholds in global and African food systems requires urgent research.     

Hyperendemicity associated with increased dengue burden

Over 105 million dengue infections are estimated to occur annually. Understanding the disease dynamics of dengue is often difficult due to multiple strains circulating within a population. Interactions between dengue serotype dynamics may result in complex cross-immunity dynamics at the population level and create difficulties in terms of formulating intervention strategies for the disease. In this study, a nationally representative 16-year time series with over 43 000 serotyped dengue infections was used to infer the long-run effects of between and within strain interactions and their impacts on past outbreaks. We used a novel identification strategy incorporating sign-identified Bayesian vector autoregressions, using structural impulse responses, historical decompositions and counterfactual analysis to conduct inference on dengue dynamics post-estimation. We found that on the population level: (i) across-serotype interactions on the population level were highly persistent, with a one time increase in any other serotype associated with long run decreases in the serotype of interest (range: 0.5–2.5 years) and (ii) over 38.7% of dengue cases of any serotype were associated with across-serotype interactions. The findings in this paper will substantially impact public health policy interventions with respect to dengue.