救捞工程中的多指标决策方法探讨

建立了基于综合权重的双基点多指标决策模型。分别从主观和客观两个方面来分析评估指标的权重,迭加得到综合权重,并利用它进行相对贴近度分析,从而判断方案的优劣,得到最佳方案,使问题的优化与决策更加科学、合理。以拖带方案的优化决策分析为例,验证了多指标决策模型的可行性,简述了它在救捞工程中的应用方法。     

An application of multiple criteria decision making principles for planning machining operations

Some recently introduced concepts of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM), such as the range of compromise and its use in dimensionless weighting of the objectives, are employed to formulate machining recommendations under multiple machining criteria. Two approaches are presented and applied to the machining of 390 die cast aluminum alloy. The first is a graphical presentation of nondominated solutions from which an appropriate solution can be chosen under varying applications, requirements, and priorities. The second is the formulation of a composite function of the objectives through dimensionless weighting to select the optimum machining variables under given aspiration levels for the machining criteria.     

A multiple criteria decision making approach for the assembly line balancing problem

In practice, measuring total profit for a given assembly line balancing (ALB) problem is an involved process that is sometimes impossible because of much uncertainty and unavailability of data. In this paper, ALB is formulated as a multiple criteria problem where several easily quantifiable criteria (objectives) and constraints are defined. Objective functions include number of stations, cycle time, and operations cost, all to be minimized. After a discussion of applications and an overview of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches for ALB, the MCDM-ALB problem is formulated. Basic definitions and properties of MCDM for ALB are outlined and then an interactive MCDM approach is developed for solving the MCDM-ALB problem. To solve the problem, the decision maker (DM) interactively responds to paired comparisons of multicriteria alternatives. Through a limited number of interactions with the DM, the most preferred alternative is obtained. Many unexplored alternatives are eliminated by using a one-dimensional multiple criteria search. To present the DM's preference, we use the most flexible and general class of utility functions; namely, either quasi-concave or quasi-convex utility functions. An example is solved and computational experiments are reported. It is demonstrated that the bicriteria ALB, cycle time versus number of stations, can be easily solved by using the developed procedure. For the case that there are different criteria, an improved goal programming is developed to solve the MCDM-ALB problem. The motivation for development of the method, based on a case study of a lamp-making plant of the General Electric Company, is discussed.     

Fuzzy multiple objective decision making approach to prioritize design requirements in quality function deployment

Quality function deployment (QFD) is a customer-oriented design tool for developing new or improved products to increase customer satisfaction by integrating marketing, design engineering, manufacturing, and other related functions of an organization. QFD focuses on delivering value by taking into account customer needs and then deploying this information throughout the development process. Although QFD aims to maximize customer satisfaction, technology and cost considerations limit the number and the extent of the possible design requirements that can be incorporated into a product. This paper presents a fuzzy multiple objective programming approach that incorporates imprecise and subjective information inherent in the QFD planning process to determine the level of fulfilment of design requirements. Linguistic variables are employed to represent the imprecise design information and the importance degree of each design objective. The fuzzy Delphi method is utilized to achieve the consensus of customers in determining the importance of customer needs. A pencil design example illustrates the application of the multiple objective decision analysis.     

On the equivalence of operational performance measurement and multiple attribute decision making

Measurement of operational performance and decision making under multiple attributes are shown to be essentially the same process. A recent operational performance measurement (OPM) procedure called OCRA (operational competitiveness rating) and a multiple attribute decision making (MADM) method called TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) are shown to produce ratings that are identical up to a linear transformation. Further investigations into OPM and MADM lead to their equivalence. The equivalence of the two methods can open up new research and application possibilities in both productivity analysis and MADM. Reviews of both the non-parametric approach that leads to the OC RA procedure and the TOPSIS method are provided, new perspectives on these methods are introduced and examples offered.     

Material selection for thin-film solar cells using multiple attribute decision making approach

This paper presents a material selection approach for selecting absorbent layer material for thin-film solar cells (TFSCs) using multiple attribute decision making (MADM) approach. In this paper, different possible materials for absorbent layer and their properties like band gap, absorption coefficient, diffusion length, thermodynamic compatibility and recombination velocity is taken into consideration and MADM approach is applied to select the best material for thin-film solar cells. It is observed that Copper Indium Gallium Diselinide (CIGS) is the best material for the absorbent layer in thin-film solar cells out of all possible candidates. It was observed that the proposed result is in accordance with the experimental findings thus justifying the validity of the proposed study.     

A subjective and objective integrated multiple attribute decision making method for material selection

The selection of an optimal material for an engineering design from among two or more alternative materials on the basis of two or more attributes is a multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problem. The selection decisions are complex, as material selection is more challenging today. There is a need for simple, systematic, and logical methods or mathematical tools to guide decision makers in considering a number of selection attributes and their interrelations and in making right decisions. This paper proposes a novel MADM method for material selection for a considered design problem. The method considers the objective weights of importance of the attributes as well as the subjective preferences of the decision maker to decide the integrated weights of importance of the attributes. Furthermore, the method uses fuzzy logic to convert the qualitative attributes into the quantitative attributes. Three examples are presented to illustrate the potential of the proposed method.     

Managing uncertainty in multiple-criteria decision making related to sustainability assessment

In real life, decisions are usually made by comparing different options with respect to several, often conflicting criteria. This requires subjective judgements on the importance of different criteria by DMs and increases uncertainty in decision making. This article demonstrates how uncertainty can be handled in multi-criteria decision situations using Compromise Programming, one of the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques. Uncertainty is characterised using a probabilistic approach and propagated using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodological approach is illustrated on a case study which compares the sustainability of two options for electricity generation: coal versus biomass. Different models have been used to quantify their sustainability performance for a number of economic, environmental and social criteria. Three cases are considered with respect to uncertainty: (1) no uncertainty, (2) uncertainty in data/models and (3) uncertainty in models and decision-makers’ preferences. The results shows how characterising and propagating uncertainty can help increase the effectiveness of multi-criteria decision making processes and lead to more informed decision.     

Policy analysis and decision making in a network: how to improve the quality of analysis and the impact on decision making

In a network, parties have different interests and are interdependent. This hampers collective decision making. If, in such a network, a policy analysis is made to support the decision making, the findings from this analysis are likely to lack authority. For a policy analysis to be authoritative and to contribute to collective decision making, a process of interaction between the analyst and the parties concerned should be organized. This is called process management. This article presents a number of guidelines for such a process. They are based on two case studies into the use of policy analysis in networks.     

SMS for decision making of SMEs

To pursue the high environmental performance, economic and social effectiveness of the companies, including small and medium enterprises (SMEs), is the key goal of the sustainable development concept. Sustainable development is based on preventive management principles, and their application in SMEs has become an important issue for enhancing competitiveness. Unfortunately, most of the sustainable development-related research is focused on large companies rather than SMEs, especially in the industrial sector. The importance of SMEs often remains unnoticed. Besides, SMEs themselves often have inadequate knowledge about their environmental and social impacts and management, and apply voluntary preventive measures less frequently than large companies. To make sustainable decisions and to improve the environmental performance, economic and social effectiveness of SMEs, an integrated sustainable management system (SMS) based on financial analysis is necessary, oriented to strategic sustainability goals, not requiring significant financial and human resources. Integration of sustainability management accounting and composite sustainable development index methodologies forms the basis of SMS for SMEs decision making. SMS was applied in three pilot SMEs (small-scale wood parquet, medium-scale wood pallets, medium-scale beverage producing companies). In this article, an extensive analysis of a small-scale wood parquet manufacturing company’s case is presented. The application of SMS enabled to identify key sustainability problems and to find solutions to improve the companies’ sustainability performance. SMS application resulted in reduced input materials consumption and the reduction of sustainability costs.     

Decision criteria for the identification of alternatives in strategic environmental assessment

The European Union Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Directive requires the assessment of likely significant effects on the environment of implementing plans or programmes and reasonable alternatives. While Irish SEA regulations and guidelines emphasise rigour and objectivity in the assessment of alternatives they have little to say on the actual identification of alternatives. Therefore, criteria should be established that would aid decision-makers in the identification of alternatives appropriate to the tier of decision-making. A methodology is set out in this paper for identifying generic SEA alternatives for a proposed plan or programme. Specifically, the methodology includes a set of alternatives identification criteria. The outputs from this methodology will help focus on the identification of more sustainable alternatives for SEA.     

Equivalence of decision problems

Summary A general and strong notion of equivalence of decision problems is given. Some results and examples are given to show that this natural notion is well adapted to the methodology of statistics. Part of this paper has been presented in the XVIII Reunión Nacional de Estadística, Investigación Operativa e Informática on September 1989 at Santiago University (Spain).     

Quasi-Bayesian Behaviour: A more realistic approach to decision making?

Summary In this paper the theoretical and practical implications of dropping-from the basic Bayesian coherence principles- the assumption of comparability of every pair of acts is examined. The resulting theory is shown to be still perfectly coherent and has Bayesian theory as a particular case. In particular we question the need of weakening or ruling out some of the axioms that constitute the coherence principles; what are their practical implications; how this drive to the notion of partial information or partial uncertainty in a certain sense; how this partial information is combined with sample information and how this relates to Bayesian methods. We also point out the relation of this approach to rational behaviour with the more (and apparently unrelated) general notion of domination structures as applied to multicrieria decision making.     

Selecting suppliers using a new fuzzy multiple criteria decision model: the fuzzy balancing and ranking method

In this paper, we present a fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM) model known as fuzzy balancing and ranking. In contrast to other MCDM models, our proposed model does not require the weights of decision making criteria. First, we appraise the performance of alternatives against criteria via linguistic variables which are expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers. The foregoing model obtains the alternative rankings through a four-stage process. Second, an outranking matrix is derived indicating that the frequency with which one alternative is superior to all other alternatives based on each criterion. Third, the outranking matrix is triangularised to obtain an implicit pre-ordering or provisional order of alternatives. Fourth, the provisional order of alternatives is subjected to various screening and balancing operations that require sequential application of a balancing principle to the so-called advantages–disadvantages table that combines the criteria with the pair-wise comparisons of alternatives. Additionally, to demonstrate the procedural implementation of the proposed model and its effectiveness, we apply it on a case study regarding the problem of supplier selection.     

Methods and tools for decision making in engineering design

This paper describes the background to the setting up of the Cambridge Engineering Design Centre. An overview of the design research and applications programme of the Cambridge EDC is given. Four research themes are identified: functional modelling, configuration and manufacturing optimization, materials and process selection, and process interpretation and management. Application areas include aerospace systems, heavy duty vehicles and medical equipment.     

The use of life cycle tools to support decision making for sustainable nanotechnologies

Nanotechnology is a broad-impact technology with applications ranging from materials and electronics to analytical methods and metrology. The many benefits that can be realized through the utilization of nanotechnology are intended to lead to an improved quality of life. However, numerous concerns have been expressed regarding the unchecked growth of nanotechnology and the unforeseen consequences it may bring. To address the concerns, nanotechnology must be examined under the microscope of sustainability. This work applies the life cycle perspective to provide an understanding of the challenges facing the development of sustainable nanotechnology. A discussion of the holistic tools used to assess the components of sustainability serves as the basis to examine how a harmony between policy and product development can be maintained using decision making for sustainability. This harmony will be most readily achieved using an enhanced risk management strategy for sustainability that combines sustainability assessment with sustainable chemical design.     

Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors

Risk-based decision making often relies upon expert probability assessments, particularly in the consequences of disruptive events and when such events are extreme or catastrophic in nature. Naturally, such expert-elicited probability distributions can be fraught with errors, as they describe events which occur very infrequently and for which only sparse data exist. This paper presents a quantitative framework, the extreme event uncertainty sensitivity impact method (EE-USIM), for measuring the sensitivity of extreme event consequences to uncertainties in the parameters of the underlying probability distribution. The EE-USIM is demonstrated with the Inoperability input-output model (IIM), a model with which to evaluate the propagation of inoperability throughout an interdependent set of economic and infrastructure sectors. The EE-USIM also makes use of a two-sided power distribution function generated by expert elicitation of extreme event consequences.     

A class of solutions for multiperson multicriteria decision making

Summary A model for multiperson multicriteria decision making is proposed, in which each individual is characterized by a weight together with a vector expressing that individual's position or preferences with respect to a number of criteria. Next, a one-parameter class of solutions is developed, of which specific members bear a strong resemblance to concepts from statistics. Our approach is related to the potential function approach in physics.

---

Zusammenfassung Ein Modell für Mehrpersonen-Mehrkriterien-Entscheidungsprobleme wird vorgeschlagen, indem jedes Individuum charakterisiert wird von einem Gewicht und gleichzeitig von einem Kriterien-Vektor. Eine Familie von Lösungen, parameterisiert von einem Parameter, wird entwickelt, wobei bestimmte Lösungen in dieser Familie bestimmten statistischen Konzepten entprechen. Unser Ansatz weist Parallelen mit dem Ansatz der Potentialfunktion in der Physik auf.

     

Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making

Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues.