RBFNN versus FFNN for daily river flow forecasting at Johor River,Malaysia

Streamflow forecasting can have a significant economic impact, as this can help in water resources management and in providing protection from water scarcities and possible flood damage. Artificial neural network (ANN) had been successfully used as a tool to model various nonlinear relations, and the method is appropriate for modeling the complex nature of hydrological systems. They are relatively fast and flexible and are able to extract the relation between the inputs and outputs of a process without knowledge of the underlying physics. In this study, two types of ANN, namely feed-forward back-propagation neural network (FFNN) and radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), have been examined. Those models were developed for daily streamflow forecasting at Johor River, Malaysia, for the period (1999–2008). Comprehensive comparison analyses were carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed static neural networks. The results demonstrate that RBFNN model is superior to the FFNN forecasting model, and RBFNN can be successfully applied and provides high accuracy and reliability for daily streamflow forecasting.     

A hybrid neural network and ARIMA model for water quality time series prediction

Accurate predictions of time series data have motivated the researchers to develop innovative models for water resources management. Time series data often contain both linear and nonlinear patterns. Therefore, neither ARIMA nor neural networks can be adequate in modeling and predicting time series data. The ARIMA model cannot deal with nonlinear relationships while the neural network model alone is not able to handle both linear and nonlinear patterns equally well. In the present study, a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model is proposed that is capable of exploiting the strengths of traditional time series approaches and artificial neural networks. The proposed approach consists of an ARIMA methodology and feed-forward, backpropagation network structure with an optimized conjugated training algorithm. The hybrid approach for time series prediction is tested using 108-month observations of water quality data, including water temperature, boron and dissolved oxygen, during 1996–2004 at Büyük Menderes river, Turkey. Specifically, the results from the hybrid model provide a robust modeling framework capable of capturing the nonlinear nature of the complex time series and thus producing more accurate predictions. The correlation coefficients between the hybrid model predicted values and observed data for boron, dissolved oxygen and water temperature are 0.902, 0.893, and 0.909, respectively, which are satisfactory in common model applications. Predicted water quality data from the hybrid model are compared with those from the ARIMA methodology and neural network architecture using the accuracy measures. Owing to its ability in recognizing time series patterns and nonlinear characteristics, the hybrid model provides much better accuracy over the ARIMA and neural network models for water quality predictions.     

Evolutionary product unit neural networks for short-term wind speed forecasting in wind farms

Combinations of physical and statistical wind speed forecasting models are frequently used in wind speed prediction problems arising in wind farms management. Artificial neural networks can be used in these models as a final step to obtain accurate wind speed predictions. The aim of this work is to determine the potential of evolutionary product unit neural networks (EPUNNs) for improving the accuracy and interpretation of these systems. Traditional neural network and EPUNN approaches have been used to develop different wind speed prediction models. The results obtained using different EPUNN models show that the functional model and the hybrid algorithms proposed provide very accurate prediction compared with standard neural networks used to solve this regression problem. One of the main advantages of the application of these EPUNNs has been the possibility of obtaining some interpretation of the non-linear relation predicted by the model, as will be shown in real data of a wind farm in Spain.     

Predicting river daily flow using wavelet-artificial neural networks based on regression analyses in comparison with artificial neural networks and support vector machine models

This study investigates the ability of wavelet-artificial neural networks (WANN) for the prediction of short-term daily river flow. The WANN model is improved by conjunction of two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (ANN) based on regression analyses, respectively. The proposed WANN models are applied to the daily flow data of Vanyar station, on the Ajichai River in the northwest region of Iran, and compared with the ANN and support vector machine (SVM) techniques. Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and correlation coefficient (R) statistics are used for evaluating precision of the WANN, ANN and SVM models. Comparison results demonstrate that the WANN model performs better than the ANN and SVM models in short-term (1-, 2- and 3-day ahead) daily river flow prediction.

     

Application of two non-linear prediction tools to the estimation of tunnel boring machine performance

Predicting tunnel boring machine (TBM) performance is a crucial issue for the accomplishment of a mechanical tunnel project, excavating via full face tunneling machine. Many models and equations have previously been introduced to estimate TBM performance based on properties of both rock and machine employing various statistical analysis techniques. However, considering the nature of the problem, it is relatively difficult to estimate tunnel boring machine performance by linear prediction models. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and non-linear multiple regression models have great potential for establishing such prediction models. The purpose of the present study is the construction of non-linear multivariable prediction models to estimate TBM performance as a function of rock properties. For this purpose, rock properties and machine data were collected from recently completed TBM tunnel project in the City of New York, USA and consequently the database was established to develop performance prediction models utilizing the ANN and the non-linear multiple regression methods. This paper presents the results of study into the application of the non-linear prediction approaches providing the acceptable precise performance estimations.     

Cuckoo search algorithm with membrane communication mechanism for modeling overhead crane systems using RBF neural networks

Developing a precise dynamic model is a critical step in the design and analysis of the overhead crane system. To achieve this objective, we present a novel radial basis function neural network (RBF-NN) modeling method. One challenge for the RBF-NN modeling method is how to determine the RBF-NN parameters reasonably. Although gradient method is widely used to optimize the parameters, it may converge slowly and may not achieve the optimal purpose. Therefore, we propose the cuckoo search algorithm with membrane communication mechanism (mCS) to optimize RBF-NN parameters. In mCS, the membrane communication mechanism is employed to maintain the population diversity and a chaotic local search strategy is adopted to improve the search accuracy. The performance of mCS is confirmed with some benchmark functions. And the analyses on the effect of the communication set size are carried out. Then the mCS is applied to optimize the RBF-NN models for modeling the overhead crane system. The experimental results demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of mCS through comparing with that of the standard cuckoo search algorithm (CS) and the gradient method.     

Application of partial mutual information variable selection to ANN forecasting of water quality in water distribution systems

Recent trends in the management of water supply have increased the need for modelling techniques that can provide reliable, efficient, and accurate representation of the complex, non-linear dynamics of water quality within water distribution systems. Statistical models based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been found to be highly suited to this application, and offer distinct advantages over more conventional modelling techniques. However, many practitioners utilise somewhat heuristic or ad hoc methods for input variable selection (IVS) during ANN development.This paper describes the application of a newly proposed non-linear IVS algorithm to the development of ANN models to forecast water quality within two water distribution systems. The intention is to reduce the need for arbitrary judgement and extensive trial-and-error during model development. The algorithm utilises the concept of partial mutual information (PMI) to select inputs based on the analysis of relationship strength between inputs and outputs, and between redundant inputs. In comparison with an existing approach, the ANN models developed using the IVS algorithm are found to provide optimal prediction with significantly greater parsimony. Furthermore, the results obtained from the IVS procedure are useful for developing additional insight into the important relationships that exist between water distribution system variables.     

基于BP神经网络的渭河水质评价方法

讨论了BP神经网络模型的特性和建模条件,并给出建立合理BP神经网络模型的基本原则和步骤.针时实际水质评价问题,建立了渭河地面水环境质量综合评价的BP神经网络模型,并与单因子法、主成分分析法进行了分析比较.实验结果表明,BP神经网络可以较好地实现水质综合评价,且具有较高的实用性和客观性.     

Range estimation of construction costs using neural networks with bootstrap prediction intervals

Modeling of construction costs is a challenging task, as it requires representation of complex relations between factors and project costs with sparse and noisy data. In this paper, neural networks with bootstrap prediction intervals are presented for range estimation of construction costs. In the integrated approach, neural networks are used for modeling the mapping function between the factors and costs, and bootstrap method is used to quantify the level of variability included in the estimated costs. The integrated method is applied to range estimation of building projects. Two techniques; elimination of the input variables, and Bayesian regularization were implemented to improve generalization capabilities of the neural network models. The proposed modeling approach enables identification of parsimonious mapping function between the factors and cost and, provides a tool to quantify the prediction variability of the neural network models. Hence, the integrated approach presents a robust and pragmatic alternative for conceptual estimation of costs.     

Linking GIS and water resources management models: an object-oriented method

Many challenges are associated with the integration of geographic information systems (GISs) with models in specific applications. One of them is adapting models to the environment of GISs. Unique aspects of water resource management problems require a special approach to development of GIS data structures. Expanded development of GIS applications for handling water resources management analysis can be assisted by use of an object oriented approach. In this paper, we model a river basin water allocation problem as a collection of spatial and thematic objects. A conceptual GIS data model is formulated to integrate the physical and logical components of the modeling problem into an operational framework, based on which, extended GIS functions are developed to implement a tight linkage between the GIS and the water resources management model. Through the object-oriented approach, data, models and users interfaces are integrated in the GIS environment, creating great flexibility for modeling and analysis. The concept and methodology described in this paper is also applicable to connecting GIS with models in other fields that have a spatial dimension and hence to which GIS can provide a powerful additional component of the modeler’s tool kit.     

Artificial neural networks for water quality soft-sensing in wastewater treatment: a review

This paper aims to present a comprehensive survey on water quality soft-sensing of a wastewater treatment process (WWTP) based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). We mainly present problem formulation of water quality soft-sensing, common soft-sensing models, practical soft-sensing examples and discussion on the performance of soft-sensing models. In details, problem formulation includes characteristic analysis and modeling principle of water quality soft-sensing. The common soft-sensing models mainly include a back-propagation neural network, radial basis function neural network, fuzzy neural network (FNN), echo state network (ESN), growing deep belief network and deep belief network with event-triggered learning (DBN-EL). They are compared in terms of accuracy, efficiency and computational complexity with partial-least-square-regression DBN (PLSR-DBN), growing ESN, sparse deep belief FNN, self-organizing DBN, wavelet-ANN and self-organizing cascade neural network (SCNN). In addition, this paper generally discusses and explains what factors affect the accuracy of the ANNs-based soft-sensing models. Finally, this paper points out several challenges in soft-sensing models of WWTP, which may be helpful for researchers and practitioner to explore the future solutions for their particular applications.

     

基于迁移学习的径向基函数神经网络学习

现实场景中存在很多小样本量数据集而且多有失真,传统神经网络在处理这类数据时泛化能力较差,不能达到预测数据或分类的目的。迁移学习可通过学习数据集A有用的知识对与其相关但不同正态分布的小样本数据集B进行辅助学习,因此提出了具有迁移学习能力的神经网络,以实现更好的分类或逼近效果。以基于ε-不敏感准则和结构风险的径向基神经网络（RBF）为基础构造了迁移径向基神经网络（T-RBF-NN）。通过加噪音数据集实验以及真实数据集实验验证加入迁移学习的神经网络在小样本情况下比传统神经网络具有更好的泛化性和鲁棒性。     

A combined neural-wavelet model for prediction of Ligvanchai watershed precipitation

Doubtlessly the first step in a river management is the precipitation modeling over the related watershed. However, considering high-stochastic property of the process, many models are being still developed in order to define such a complex phenomenon in the field of hydrologic engineering. Recently artificial neural network (ANN) as a non-linear inter-extrapolator is extensively used by hydrologists for rainfall modeling as well as other fields of hydrology.In the current research, the wavelet analysis was linked to the ANN concept for prediction of Ligvanchai watershed precipitation at Tabriz, Iran. For this purpose, the main time series was decomposed to some multi-frequently time series by wavelet theory, then these time series were imposed as input data to the ANN to predict the precipitation 1 month ahead. The obtained results show the proposed model can predict both short- and long-term precipitation events because of using multi-scale time series as the ANN input layer.     

Linking groundwater simulation and reservoir system analysis models: The case for California’s Central Valley

Groundwater is an important resource. In many developed basins it meets part or all of the water demands. In addition, the management of groundwater resources directly impacts stream flows through stream-aquifer interactions. Yet many reservoir system analysis models that are used for the management of surface water resources either include a simplified representation of the groundwater flow dynamics or rely on surrogate models (linear response functions, artificial neural networks, etc.) which are trained using more complex groundwater models. These approaches may introduce restrictive, sometimes inaccurate, representation of the groundwater flow dynamics and additional modeling steps. In this study a reservoir system analysis model that utilizes an LP solver is linked directly to a non-linear, three-dimensional, finite element groundwater model. The linked model is a general-purpose model and can be applied to any basin. Some of the features of the linked model are showcased by an application to California's Central Valley.     

Stream water temperature prediction based on Gaussian process regression

The prediction of stream water temperature presents an interesting topic since the water temperature has a significant ecological and economical role, such as in species distribution, fishery, industry and agriculture water exploitation. The prediction of stream water temperature is usually based on appropriate mathematical model and measurements of different atmospheric factors. In this paper, a probabilistic approach to daily mean water temperature prediction is proposed. The resulting model is a combination of two Gaussian process regression models where the first model describes the long-term component of water temperature and the other model describes the short-term variations in water temperature. The proposed approach is developed even further by modeling the short-term variations with multiple Gaussian process regression models instead with a single one. Apart from that, variable selection procedure based on mutual information is presented which is suitable for input variable selection when nonlinear models for stream water prediction are developed. The proposed approach is compared with traditional modeling approaches on the measurements obtained on the Drava river in Croatia. The presented methodology can be used as a basis of the predictive tools for water resource managers.     

Hybrid neural modeling for groundwater level prediction

The accurate prediction of groundwater level is important for the efficient use and management of groundwater resources, particularly in sub-humid regions where water surplus in monsoon season and water scarcity in non-monsoon season is a common phenomenon. In this paper, an attempt has been made to develop a hybrid neural model (ANN-GA) employing an artificial neural network (ANN) model in conjunction with famous optimization strategy called genetic algorithms (GA) for accurate prediction of groundwater levels in the lower Mahanadi river basin of Orissa State, India. Three types of functionally different algorithm-based ANN models (viz. back-propagation (GDX), Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian regularization (BR)) were used to compare the strength of proposed hybrid model in the efficient prediction of groundwater fluctuations. The ANN-GA hybrid modeling was carried out with lead-time of 1 week and study mainly aimed at November and January months of a year. Overall, simulation results suggest that the Bayesian regularization model is the most efficient of the ANN models tested for the study period. However, a strong correlation between the observed and predicted groundwater levels was observed for all the models. The results reveal that the hybrid GA-based ANN algorithm is able to produce better accuracy and performance in medium and high groundwater level predictions compared to conventional ANN techniques including Bayesian regularization model. Furthermore, the study shows that hybrid neural models can offer significant implications for improving groundwater management and water supply planning in semi-arid areas where aquifer information is not available.     

Neuro-fuzzy methods for nonlinear system identification

Most processes in industry are characterized by nonlinear and time-varying behavior. Nonlinear system identification is becoming an important tool which can be used to improve control performance and achieve robust fault-tolerant behavior. Among the different nonlinear identification techniques, methods based on neuro-fuzzy models are gradually becoming established not only in the academia but also in industrial applications. Neuro-fuzzy modeling can be regarded as a gray-box technique on the boundary between neural networks and qualitative fuzzy models. The tools for building neuro-fuzzy models are based on combinations of algorithms from the fields of neural networks, pattern recognition and regression analysis. In this paper, an overview of neuro-fuzzy modeling methods for nonlinear system identification is given, with an emphasis on the tradeoff between accuracy and interpretability.     

APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS FOR PREDICTING pH IN SEAWATER ALONG GAZA BEACH

Coastal water issues are gaining worldwide attention because of their impact on health and other environmental problems. This article is concerned with the comparison between artificial neural networks and statistical methods to predict the degree of acidity (pH) in the coastal waters along the Gaza beach. Multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) neural networks are trained and developed with reference to three parameters (water temperature, wind velocity, and turbidity) to predict the level of pH in the seawater. Both networks were developed using the combination of the data collected from nine sites over a period of 4 years, including 294 samples for training and 90 samples for testing the performance of models. The results show that the MLP and RBF models have good ability to predict the pH level. Each network's performance was tested with different sets of data, and the results show satisfactory performance. Results of the developed networks were compared with the statistical regression method and found that the predictions of neural networks are better than the conventional methods. Predictions result show that artificial neural networks approach have good ability for the modeling of pH level in the coastal waters along Gaza beach. It is hoped that neural networks will prove to be a promising alternative to traditional methods used and can contribute in the improvement of the quality of seawater.     

Linearity versus non-linearity in forecasting Nile River flows

Egypt is almost totally dependent on the Nile River for satisfying about 95% of its water requirements. Aswan High Dam (AHD), located at the most upstream point of the river controls Egypt's share of water. Once a release decision is made, there is no chance of retrieving or recovering this released water. Therefore, long- and short-term forecasts of Nile flows at Aswan have been recognized to be of great importance to allow better management and operation of the reservoir.Several autoregressive (AR) models of uni- or multi-site flows upstream of Aswan had been developed to forecast monthly reservoir inflows for some lead-time. Most of these models failed to forecast, with satisfactory accuracy, the peak flows of July, August, and September due to high variability of flows during these months. Some hydrologists contributed this inaccuracy to the linearity assumption embedded in AR models.Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are being tested as a forecast tool to consider the non-linearity. Several neural networks using Neuralyst™ software have been investigated against updated AR models. The results indicated that the inclusion of non-linearity in the ANNs forecast might in some cases lead to improved forecast accuracy.     

Methods used for the development of neural networks for the prediction of water resource variables in river systems: Current status and future directions

Over the past 15 years, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been used increasingly for prediction and forecasting in water resources and environmental engineering. However, despite this high level of research activity, methods for developing ANN models are not yet well established. In this paper, the steps in the development of ANN models are outlined and taxonomies of approaches are introduced for each of these steps. In order to obtain a snapshot of current practice, ANN development methods are assessed based on these taxonomies for 210 journal papers that were published from 1999 to 2007 and focus on the prediction of water resource variables in river systems. The results obtained indicate that the vast majority of studies focus on flow prediction, with very few applications to water quality. Methods used for determining model inputs, appropriate data subsets and the best model structure are generally obtained in an ad-hoc fashion and require further attention. Although multilayer perceptrons are still the most popular model architecture, other model architectures are also used extensively. In relation to model calibration, gradient based methods are used almost exclusively. In conclusion, despite a significant amount of research activity on the use of ANNs for prediction and forecasting of water resources variables in river systems, little of this is focused on methodological issues. Consequently, there is still a need for the development of robust ANN model development approaches.