A spatially distributed risk screening tool to assess climate and land use change impacts on water-related ecosystem services

To support the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD), and as part of a tiered approach to prioritise detailed modelling, a high-level screening methodology has been developed to assess the vulnerability of water-related ecosystem services (ES) to future change. The approach incorporates a range of spatially distributed scenarios of land use and climate, which are used as inputs to a qualitative risk assessment model underpinned by expert opinion. The method makes use of widely available datasets and provides a structured way of capturing and “codifying” expert knowledge, as well as for assessing the degree of consensus between different expert groups. The range of model output reflects uncertainty in both the expert-derived assumptions and the climate & land use simulations considered. The approach has been developed in collaboration with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and applied in Scotland to support the second cycle of River Basin Management Planning.     

A methodological approach to the design of optimising control strategies for sewer systems

This study focuses on designing an optimisation based control for sewer system in a methodological way and linking it to a regulatory control. Optimisation based design is found to depend on proper choice of a model, formulation of objective function and tuning of optimisation parameters. Accordingly, two novel optimisation configurations are developed, where the optimisation either acts on the actuators or acts on the regulatory control layer. These two optimisation designs are evaluated on a sub-catchment of the sewer system in Copenhagen, and found to perform better than the existing control; a rule based expert system. On the other hand, compared with a regulatory control technique designed earlier in Mollerup et al. (2015), the optimisation showed similar performance with respect to minimising overflow volume. Hence for operation of small sewer systems, regulatory control strategies can offer promising potential and should be considered along more advanced strategies when identifying novel solutions.     

A data porting tool for coupling models with different discretization needs

The presented work is part of a larger research program dealing with developing tools for coupling biogeochemical models in contaminated landscapes. The specific objective of this article is to provide researchers with a data porting tool to build hexagonal raster using information from a rectangular raster data (e.g. GIS format). This tool involves a computational algorithm and an open source software (written in C). The method of extending the reticulated functions defined on 2D networks is an essential key of this algorithm and can also be used for other purposes than data porting. The algorithm allows one to build the hexagonal raster with a cell size independent from the geometry of the rectangular raster. The extended function is a bi-cubic spline which can exactly reconstruct polynomials up to degree three in each variable. We validate the method by analyzing errors in some theoretical case studies followed by other studies with real terrain elevation data. We also introduce and briefly present an iterative water routing method and use it for validation on a case with concrete terrain data.     

Use of freely available datasets and machine learning methods in predicting deforestation

The range and quality of freely available geo-referenced datasets is increasing. We evaluate the usefulness of free datasets for deforestation prediction by comparing generalised linear models and generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs) with a variety of machine learning models (Bayesian networks, artificial neural networks and Gaussian processes) across two study regions. Freely available datasets were able to generate plausible risk maps of deforestation using all techniques for study zones in both Mexico and Madagascar. Artificial neural networks outperformed GLMMs in the Madagascan (average AUC 0.83 vs 0.80), but not the Mexican study zone (average AUC 0.81 vs 0.89). In Mexico and Madagascar, Gaussian processes (average AUC 0.89, 0.85) and structured Bayesian networks (average AUC 0.88, 0.82) performed at least as well as GLMMs (average AUC 0.89, 0.80). Bayesian networks produced more stable results across different sampling methods. Gaussian processes performed well (average AUC 0.85) with fewer predictor variables.     

Electric vehicles charging control in a smart grid: A model predictive control approach

The paper presents an event driven model predictive control (MPC) framework for managing charging operations of electric vehicles (EV) in a smart grid. The objective is to minimize the cost of energy consumption, while respecting EV drivers' preferences, technical bounds on the control action (in compliance with the IEC 61851 standard) and both market and grid constraints (by seeking the tracking of a reference load profile defined by the grid operator). The proposed control approach allows “flexible” EV users to participate in demand side management (DSM) programs, which will play a crucial role in improving stability and efficiency of future smart grids. Further, the natural MPC formulation of the problem can be recast into a mixed integer linear programming problem, suitable for implementation on a calculator. Simulation results are provided and discussed in detail.     

Simulating agricultural land rental markets by combining agent-based models with traditional economics concepts: The case of the Argentine Pampas

Land exchange through rental transactions is a central process in agricultural systems. The land tenure regimes emerge from land transactions and structural and land use changes are tied to the dynamics of the land market. We introduce LARMA, a LAnd Rental MArket model embedded within the Pampas Model (PM), an agent-based model of Argentinean agricultural systems. LARMA produces endogenous formation of land rental prices. LARMA relies on traditional economic concepts for LRP formation but addresses some drawbacks of this approach by being integrated into an agent-based model that considers heterogeneous agents interacting with one another. PM-LARMA successfully reproduced the agricultural land tenure regimes and land rental prices observed in the Pampas. Including adaptive, heterogeneous and interacting agents was critical to this success. We conclude that agent-based and traditional economic models can be successfully combined to capture complex emergent land tenure and market price patterns while simplifying the overall model design.     

Continuum electrostatic approach for evaluating positions and interactions of proteins in a bilayer membrane

Orientations of proteins in the membranes are crucial to their function and stability. Unfortunately the exact positions of these proteins in the lipid bilayer are mostly undetermined. Here, the spatial orientation of membrane proteins within the lipid membrane was evaluated using a Poisson–Boltzmann solvent continuum approach to calculate the electrostatic free energy of the protein solvation at various orientations in an implicit bilayer. The solvation energy was obtained by computing the difference in electrostatic energies of the protein in water and in lipid/water environments, treating each as an implicit solvent model. The optimal position of transmembrane proteins (TMP) in a lipid bilayer is identified by the minimum in the “downhill” pathway of the solvation energy landscape. The energy landscape pattern was considerably conserved in various TMP classes. Evaluation of the position of 1060 membrane proteins from the orientations of proteins in membranes (OPM) database revealed that most of the polytopic and β-barrel proteins were in good agreement with those of the OPM database. The study provides a useful scheme for estimating the membrane solvation energy made by lipid-exposed amino acids in membrane proteins. In addition, our results tested with the bacterial potassium channel model demonstrated the potential usefulness of the approach in assessing the quality of membrane protein models. The present approach should be applicable for constructing transmembrane proteins–lipid configuration suitable for membrane protein simulations and will have utility for the structural modeling of membrane proteins.     

An integrated flood management system based on linking environmental models and disaster-related data

The flood disaster management system (FDMS) is a platform developed to provide ongoing disaster reduction capabilities that cover the entire process of flood management. The ontology-based approach links environmental models with disaster-related data to support FDMS-constructed workflows with suitable models and recommend appropriate datasets as model input automatically. This automated activity for model selection and data binding reduces the time-consuming and unreliable operations involved in traditional management techniques, which rely on manual retrieval through simple metadata indices—typically when flood management personnel are overwhelmed with large quantities of observed data. The OpenMI-based modular design used in the system unifies interfaces and data exchange to provide flexible and extensible architecture. Subsequent 3D visualization improves the interpretability of disaster data and the effectiveness of decision-making processes. This paper presents an overview of the design and capabilities of FDMS that provides one-stop management for flood disasters.     

Integrated watershed modeling for simulation of spatiotemporal redistribution of post-fallout radionuclides: Application in radiocesium fate and transport processes derived from the Fukushima accidents

Simulation of the watershed-scale fate and transport of radionuclides is required in order to predict the consequences of contamination redistribution. Integrated watershed modeling is a suitable technique for this task, but it requires fully coupled investigation of radionuclide behavior in surface water, suspended sediment and subsurface aquifers. We developed a novel simulator for computing the spatiotemporal redistribution of fallout radionuclides in watersheds. The simulator was applied to an actual reservoir basin contaminated by fallout radionuclides from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in 2011. As a result, the simulated ¹³⁷Cs concentration in bottom sediment showed a reasonably close match with the measurement data. The distribution coefficient of ¹³⁷Cs consistent with the latest measurement data was identified as being at least 400,000 L/kg, and it was estimated that more than 90% of the total ¹³⁷Cs distributed in the fallout remains in the catchment area.     

Activity theory as a framework for building adaptive e-learning systems: A case to provide empirical evidence

We apply activity theory (AT) to design adaptive e-learning systems (AeLS). AT is a framework to study human’s behavior at learning; whereas, AeLS enhance students’ apprenticeship by the personalization of teaching–learning experiences. AeLS depict users’ traits and predicts learning outcomes. The approach was successfully tested: Experimental group took lectures chosen by the anticipation AT principle; whilst, control group received randomly selected lectures. Learning achieved by experimental group reveals a correlation quite significant and high positive; but, for control group the correlation it is not significant and medium positive. We conclude: AT is a useful framework to design AeLS and provide student-centered education.     

A new method for trust and reputation evaluation in the cloud environments using the recommendations of opinion leaders' entities and removing the effect of troll entities

Trust in the cloud environment is not written into an agreement and is something earned. In any trust evaluation mechanism, opinion leaders are the entities influencing the behaviors or attitudes of others, this makes them to be trustworthy, valid among other characteristics. On the other hand, trolls are the entities posting incorrect and unreal comments; therefore, their effect must be removed. This paper evaluates the trust by considering the influence of opinion leaders on other entities and removing the troll entities’ effect in the cloud environment. Trust value is evaluated using five parameters; availability, reliability, data integrity, identity and capability. Also, we propose a method for opinion leaders and troll entity identification using three topological metrics, including input-degree, output-degree and reputation measures. The method being evaluated in various situation where shows the results of accuracy by removing the effect of troll entities and the advice of opinion leaders.     

Effect of handle design on movement dynamics and muscle co-activation in a wrist flexion task

Arm and wrist manipulanda are commonly used as input devices in teleoperation and gaming applications, establish a physical interface to patients in several rehabilitation robots, and are applied as advanced research tools in biomechanics and neuroscience. Despite the fact that the physical interface, i.e. the handle through which the wrist/hand is attached to the manipulator, may influence interaction and movement behavior, the effects of handle design on these parameters has received little attention. Yet, a poor handle design might lead to overexertion and altered movement dynamics, or result in misinterpretation of results in research studies. In this study, twelve healthy subjects performed repetitions of a wrist flexion task against a dynamic load generated by a 1-DOF robotic wrist manipulandum. Three different handle designs were qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated based on wrist movement kinematics and dynamics, patterns of finger and wrist muscle activity, and ergonomics criteria such as perceived comfort and fatigue. The three proposed designs were further compared to a conventional joystick-like handle. Task performance as well as kinematic and kinetic parameters were found to be unaffected by handle design. Nevertheless, differences were found in perceived task difficulty, comfort and levels of muscle activation of wrist and finger muscles, with significantly higher muscle activation when using a joystick-like design, where the handle is completely enclosed by the hand. Comfort was rated high for the flat handle, adapted to the natural curvature of the hand with the fingers extended. These results may inform for the design of handles serving as physical interface in teleoperation applications, robot-assisted rehabilitation and biomechanics/neuroscience research.     

Development of predictive models for the estimation of the probability of suffering fear of falling and other fall risk factors based on posturography parameters in community-dwelling older adults

Falls pose an important problem for older adults. Balance training is one of the main prevention strategies, but there is a lack of objective measurement methods that would allow the effectiveness of the treatments employed to be assessed. This study aimed to analyse the relationship between posturographic parameters and risk factors associated with falling, including the fear of falling (FoF). Forty-one healthy community-dwelling older adults were surveyed on their perception of problems considered to be fall risk factors. Balance measurement with posturography was performed. The relationships between risk factors and falls and risk factors and posturography were analysed by means of cross-tabulation and logistic regression, respectively. Experimental results showed a significant relationship between some of the posturographic parameters and various fall risk factors. Stability limits were related to FoF, and results from the Romberg test with eyes closed with and without foam correlated with problems in kneeling/crouching. The results from the Romberg test with eyes closed and foam correlated with osteoarthritis. Equations were developed to estimate the probability of having such problems. In conclusion, posturography is useful for the estimation of fall risk conditions in relation to three important fall risk factors (FoF, osteoarthritis and problems in kneeling/crouching), and it could be used for targeting, training and studying progress after the use of different treatments.Relevance to industryPosturography can be used as an assessment tool to analyse the effects of those treatments aimed at preventing falls. Furthermore, the equations derived from our results can be used along with posturographic variables to assess patient progress.     

A smart classifier for extracting environmental data from digital image time-series: Applications for PhenoCam data in a tidal salt marsh

PhenoCams are part of a national network of automated digital cameras used to assess vegetation phenology transitions. Effectively analyzing PhenoCam time-series involves eliminating scenes with poor solar illumination or high cover of non-target objects such as water. We created a smart classifier to process images from the “GCESapelo” PhenoCam, which photographs a regularly-flooded salt marsh. The smart classifier, written in R, assigns pixels to target (vegetation) and non-target (water, shadows, fog and clouds) classes, allowing automated identification of optimal scenes for evaluating phenology. When compared to hand-classified validation images, the smart classifier identified scenes with optimal vegetation cover with 96% accuracy and other object classes with accuracies ranging from 86 to 100%. Accuracy for estimating object percent cover ranged from 74 to 100%. Pixel-classification with the smart classifier outperformed previous approaches (i.e. indices based on average color content within ROIs) and reduced variance in phenology index time-series. It can be readily adapted for other applications.     

Ergonomic evaluation of an alternative tool for cake decorating

AimCake decorating involves several hand intensive steps with high grip force during the application of icing. The purpose of this laboratory study was to evaluate forearm muscle activity, discomfort, productivity, and usability of an alternative tool for cake decorating compared to decorating with the traditional piping bag.MethodsParticipants (n = 17) performed 2 h of cake decorating tasks using the two tools. Subjective hand and arm fatigue, usability, upper extremity posture, and muscle activity from three forearm muscles were assessed for each tool. Outcome measures were evaluated using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test and the paired t-test.ResultsLess fatigue was reported in the dominant hand (p = 0.001), forearm (p = 0.003) and shoulder (p = 0.02) for the alternative tool when compared to the piping bag. Average median (APDF 50%) and peak (APDF 90%) muscle activity was significantly less for the alternative tool across all three forearm muscles. The alternative tool significantly reduced grip force, an important risk factor for distal upper extremity pain and disorders. Participants rated usability of the alternative tool superior for refill and comfort but the traditional method was rated better for accuracy, stability, positioning and control.ConclusionsThe alternative tool was associated with less dominant arm fatigue, muscle activity, and grip force when compared with the piping bag. However, the alternative tool did not receive the best overall usability rating due to problems with accuracy and overflow, especially with smaller decorating tips. Recommendations were made for addressing these problems with the alternative tool.     

An extended systematic literature review on provision of evidence for safety certification

ContextCritical systems in domains such as aviation, railway, and automotive are often subject to a formal process of safety certification. The goal of this process is to ensure that these systems will operate safely without posing undue risks to the user, the public, or the environment. Safety is typically ensured via complying with safety standards. Demonstrating compliance to these standards involves providing evidence to show that the safety criteria of the standards are met.ObjectiveIn order to cope with the complexity of large critical systems and subsequently the plethora of evidence information required for achieving compliance, safety professionals need in-depth knowledge to assist them in classifying different types of evidence, and in structuring and assessing the evidence. This paper is a step towards developing such a body of knowledge that is derived from a large-scale empirically rigorous literature review.MethodWe use a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) as the basis for our work. The SLR builds on 218 peer-reviewed studies, selected through a multi-stage process, from 4963 studies published between 1990 and 2012.ResultsWe develop a taxonomy that classifies the information and artefacts considered as evidence for safety. We review the existing techniques for safety evidence structuring and assessment, and further study the relevant challenges that have been the target of investigation in the academic literature. We analyse commonalities in the results among different application domains and discuss implications of the results for both research and practice.ConclusionThe paper is, to our knowledge, the largest existing study on the topic of safety evidence. The results are particularly relevant to practitioners seeking a better grasp on evidence requirements as well as to researchers in the area of system safety. As a major finding of the review, the results strongly suggest the need for more practitioner-oriented and industry-driven empirical studies in the area of safety certification.     

A framework for coupling explanation and prediction in hydroecological modelling

Causal explanation and empirical prediction are usually addressed separately when modelling ecological systems. This potentially leads to erroneous conflation of model explanatory and predictive power, to predictive models that lack ecological interpretability, or to limited feedback between predictive modelling and theory development. These are fundamental challenges to appropriate statistical and scientific use of ecological models. To help address such challenges, we propose a novel, integrated modelling framework which couples explanatory modelling for causal understanding and input variable selection with a machine learning approach for empirical prediction. Exemplar datasets from the field of freshwater ecology are used to develop and evaluate the framework, based on 267 stream and river monitoring stations across England, UK. These data describe spatial patterns in benthic macroinvertebrate community indices that are hypothesised to be driven by meso-scale physical and chemical habitat conditions. Whilst explanatory models developed using structural equation modelling performed strongly (r² for two macroinvertebrate indices = 0.64–0.70), predictive models based on extremely randomised trees demonstrated moderate performance (r² for the same indices = 0.50–0.61). However, through coupling explanatory and predictive components, our proposed framework yields ecologically-interpretable predictive models which also maintain the parsimony and accuracy of models based on solely predictive approaches. This significantly enhances the opportunity for feedback among causal theory, empirical data and prediction within environmental modelling.     

Comparing interpolation techniques for monthly rainfall mapping using multiple evaluation criteria and auxiliary data sources: A case study of Sri Lanka

Interpolating climatic variables such as rainfall is challenging due to the highly variable nature of meteorological processes, the effects of terrain and geography, and the difficulty in establishing a representative network of stations. While interpolation models are being adapted to include these effects, often the rainfall data contain significant gaps in coverage. In this paper, we evaluated rainfall data from an agro-ecological monitoring network for producing maps of total monthly rainfall in Sri Lanka. We compared four spatial interpolation techniques: inverse distance weighting, thin-plate splines, ordinary kriging, and Bayesian kriging. Error metrics were used to validate interpolations against independent data. Satellite data were used to assess the spatial pattern of rainfall. Results indicated that Bayesian kriging and splines performed best in low and high rainfall, respectively. Rainfall maps generated from the agro-ecological network were found to have accuracies consistent with previous studies in Sri Lanka.