基于GIS的道路气象图形与文本自动生成

基于GIS技术,阐述中央气象台道路气象服务图形与文本产品的计算机自动生成思路与流程,讨论气象与道路数据预处理、道路反演基本原理、图形和文本生成的基本原则、模板技术、地理建模方法实现等关键技术问题。业务运行结果表明,该方法能满足实时业务要求。     

基于TDLAS技术的机载水汽密度测量仪

近年来,可调谐激光吸收光谱(TDLAS)技术发展迅速,在气体浓度检测领域被广泛应用。水汽密度的测量在高空气象业务中占有重要地位,但我国目前的高空气象业务基本依靠探空气球的数据开展,用这种方式测量水汽密度具有数据量少、数据不够新、成本高的缺点。在TDLAS技术的基础上,结合机载环境情况,实现了在机载环境下实时、准确、快速地测量水汽密度,为飞机在飞行过程中提供了实时的气象参考;为气象预报提供了更加丰富的气象数据;也为特定区域进行机载气象探测提供了参考。     

基于隶属函数的骆岗机场新型大雾预报方法

准确预报大雾对机场减少航班大面积延误和旅客滞留有重要意义。本文阐述一种适用于机场的大雾短时预报方法。通过选取骆岗机场历史地面逐时观测气象资料,依据气温趋势不同类型,运用模糊隶属度与发生条件概率模型,分别建立短时大雾的预报方法。利用VC++程序开发了骆岗机场大雾短时预报软件,可扩展硬件构建实时预警系统。使用2011年地面资料检验结果显示:对未来3小时大雾预报准确率为91.3%,TS评分为0.84。因此,本文提出的大雾短时预报方法在骆岗机场附近3小时大雾预报中是有效的。     

基于Hadoop技术的气象数据实时传输监控系统设计

气象数据在传输过程中,可能会出现数据丢失、重复、错误等问题,为准确分析气象问题表现情况,实现对气象问题的实时监控,设计了基于Hadoop技术的气象数据实时传输监控系统。联合JTAG调试电路与数据采集器,调节风速风向、雨雪、雷电、温湿度四个基础监控模块,完成气象数据实时传输监控系统的硬件设计。根据Hadoop架构体系连接形式,搭建Hadoop架构体系,预处理气象数据。在此基础上,匹配数据库机制与业务信息表单,实现应用系统的实时传输监控功能,再联合相关系统硬件,完成基于Hadoop技术的气象数据实时传输监控系统的设计。实验结果表明,在本文设计系统作用下,能够有效实现对风、雨、雪、雷四种气象问题的实时监测,可以准确分析气象问题表现情况。     

基于GIS的广西暴雨风险度实时评估系统

针对精细化、定量化的暴雨灾害风险度实时评估方法的缺乏,应用广西的暴雨日数和日降雨量等气象数据、历史灾情数据、高程和距海距离等地理信息数据,通过研究确定基于承灾体-孕灾环境-致灾因子-抗灾力等多源数据的广西暴雨致险因子的辨识技术和序列构建方法,构建了针对农业、社会经济等不同承灾体的,基于暴雨危险度、孕灾环境脆弱度、暴雨灾害易损度和抗灾力的暴雨灾害风险度实时评估模型和等级指标,并运用组件式地理信息系统(GIS)二次开发技术,以实时评估模块为核心,研发了基于GIS技术的广西暴雨风险度实时评估系统,简化和规范了暴雨风险度实时评估操作流程。应用所提系统对2011年9月29日的强台风“纳沙”带来的暴雨风险度进行评估,评估结果与灾情实况相符。     

一种地市级气象数据共享系统的设计与实现

气象数据共享是气象预报预警、公共气象服务的基础。针对地市级气象数据存储分散、共享水平低、无标准等问题,从气象应用需求和数据共享角度,首先设计标准化数据获取客户端,以灵活配置的形式完成多种气象资料的解析。通过气象资料的逻辑划分,实现物理上集中存储,逻辑上相对独立的方式进行数据存储和管理。同时,系统以多种方式进行数据共享服务和安全访问控制。在标准化气象数据获取、一体化气象数据存储与管理,数据共享服务等方面,构建了灵活、高效的气象数据流程,设计和实现了一种面向地市级的实时气象数据共享系统。在整个数据流程中,均考虑每个环节的监控,为集中运维提供可靠的数据参考。目前,该系统已经投入业务使用,为市县两级气象应用的数据调取和公共气象服务提供稳定、高效的实时数据共享服务,取得了较好的应用效果。     

基于气象大数据云平台的海南气象数据共享平台设计与实现

为打破“数据孤岛”，推动气象数据跨部门融合使用，充分发挥气象数据科学价值，针对海南省气象部门与外部门数据共享方式杂乱、共享水平低、管理滞后等问题，依托专线网络，从气象数据需求类型、数据格式出发，设计了一套气象数据跨部门的分发处理流程。在气象大数据云平台数据环境的基础上，整合各类数据资源，基于B/S架构、SSH框架，采用分布式存储技术、数据缓存技术，建立了跨部门跨行业的气象数据共享平台。目前，该平台已经投入业务使用, 为海南省气象数据跨部门跨行业使用提供稳定、高效的实时数据共享服务，取得了较好的应用效果。     

交通气象道路安全预警系统的实现

笔者首先详细介绍了道路安全气象采集预警系统的整体结构,包括前端设备的组成、后端服务的组成以及各个模块的功能,其次给出了通过将各类交通气象数据进行量化和分级,利用交通气象数据进行道路安全态势分析的方法;最后提出了使用XGBoost进行交通气象数据预测的具体办法,并给出了用于预测的数据特征,从而使该系统具备了预警的功能,具有很高的实用价值。     

基于ETL的政务云气象数据仓库构建

针对气象网站等应用系统向地方政务云迁移过程中缺乏基础数据的现状,从功能性,开发成本,灵活性方面考虑选用ETL工具,基于Kettle软件对气象数据ETL流程进行建模,使用Quartz开发作业调度系统实现ETL流程的自动化运行,在政务云搭建SQL Server数据库集群,构建了政务云气象数据仓库.该数据仓库实现了异构环境气象数据在政务云的实时同步和存储,为气象应用系统在政务云的全面部署提供了数据支持,也为气象部门参与电子政务数据交换和共享打下基础.     

基于XML和正则表达式的气象数据处理系统

随着气象综合观测网建设的不断推进,气象实时数据信息传输种类和数据量急剧增加。同时,气象实时数据信息的传输处理呈现某一特定时段需并行处理多类实时数据信息的特点。为实现气象数据信息高效、可靠、完整、及时的收集、存储和共享,采用XML标记语言对各类实时数据信息的报文内容进行标识和说明的方法,形成各数据业务类型定义,结合基于正则表达式的数据处理应用,使系统具备适应气象观测数据业务变化的能力。实现了对实时气象数据信息在省级中心的收集、处理、分发,改善了原有业务系统繁杂、功能单一、扩展性差、效率低等缺陷。     

Only connect: teaching, technology and telesis

Abstract This paper describes an approach to the design of interactive multimedia materials being developed in a European Community project. The developmental process is seen as a dialogue between technologists and teachers. This dialogue is often problematic because of the differences in training, experience and culture between them. Conditions needed for fruitful dialogue are described and the generic model for learning design used in the project is explained.     

European Community policy and the market

Abstract This paper starts with some reflections on the policy considerations and priorities which are shaping European Commission (EC) research programmes. Then it attempts to position the current projects which seek to capitalise on information and communications technologies for learning in relation to these priorities and the apparent realities of the marketplace. It concludes that while there are grounds to be optimistic about the contribution EC programmes can make to the efficiency and standard of education and training, they are still too technology driven.     

一种自适应子融合集成多分类器方法

融合集成方法已经广泛应用在模式识别领域,然而一些基分类器实时性能稳定性较差,导致多分类器融合性能差,针对上述问题本文提出了一种新的基于多分类器的子融合集成分类器系统。该方法考虑在度量层融合层次之上通过对各类基多分类器进行动态选择,票数最多的类别作为融合系统中对特征向量识别的类别,构成一种新的自适应子融合集成分类器方法。实验表明,该方法比传统的分类器以及分类融合方法识别准确率明显更高,具有更好的鲁棒性。     

Avoiding semantic and temporal gaps in developing software intensive systems

Development of software intensive systems (systems) in practice involves a series of self-contained phases for the lifecycle of a system. Semantic and temporal gaps, which occur among phases and among developer disciplines within and across phases, hinder the ongoing development of a system because of the interdependencies among phases and among disciplines. Such gaps are magnified among systems that are developed at different times by different development teams, which may limit reuse of artifacts of systems development and interoperability among the systems. This article discusses such gaps and a systems development process for avoiding them.     

Designing economic np control charts: A programmed simulation approach

This paper presents control charts models and the necessary simulation software for the location of economic values of the control parameters. The simulation program is written in FORTRAN, requires only 10K of main storage, and can run on most mini and micro computers. Two models are presented - one describes the process when it is operating at full capacity and the other when the process is operating under capacity. The models allow the product quality to deteriorate to a further level before an existing out-of-control state is detected, and they can also be used in situations where no prior knowledge exists of the out-of-control causes and the resulting proportion defectives.     

The development of robot art

Going through a few examples of robot artists who are recognized worldwide, we try to analyze the deepest meaning of what is called “robot art” and the related art field definition. We also try to highlight its well-marked borders, such as kinetic sculptures, kinetic art, cyber art, and cyberpunk. A brief excursion into the importance of the context, the message, and its semiotics is also provided, case by case, together with a few hints on the history of this discipline in the light of an artistic perspective. Therefore, the aim of this article is to try to summarize the main characteristics that might classify robot art as a unique and innovative discipline, and to track down some of the principles by which a robotic artifact can or cannot be considered an art piece in terms of social, cultural, and strictly artistic interest. This work was presented in part at the 13th International Symposium on Artificial Life and Robotics, Oita, Japan, January 31–February 2, 2008     

Explanation and prediction: an architecture for default and abductive reasoning

Although there are many arguments that logic is an appropriate tool for artificial intelligence, there has been a perceived problem with the monotonicity of classical logic. This paper elaborates on the idea that reasoning should be viewed as theory formation where logic tells us the consequences of our assumptions. The two activities of predicting what is expected to be true and explaining observations are considered in a simple theory formation framework. Properties of each activity are discussed, along with a number of proposals as to what should be predicted or accepted as reasonable explanations. An architecture is proposed to combine explanation and prediction into one coherent framework. Algorithms used to implement the system as well as examples from a running implementation are given.     

Three Process Perspectives: Organizations, Teams, and People

This paper provides the author's personal views and perspectives on software process improvement. Starting with his first work on technology assessment in IBM over 20 years ago, Watts Humphrey describes the process improvement work he has been directly involved in. This includes the development of the early process assessment methods, the original design of the CMM, and the introduction of the Personal Software Process (PSP)^SM and Team Software Process (TSP){^SM}. In addition to describing the original motivation for this work, the author also reviews many of the problems he and his associates encountered and why they solved them the way they did. He also comments on the outstanding issues and likely directions for future work. Finally, this work has built on the experiences and contributions of many people. Mr. Humphrey only describes work that he was personally involved in and he names many of the key contributors. However, so many people have been involved in this work that a full list of the important participants would be impractical.     

基于复小波噪声方差显著修正的SAR图像去噪

提出了一种基于复小波域统计建模与噪声方差估计显著性修正相结合的合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar,SAR)图像斑点噪声滤波方法。该方法首先通过对数变换将乘性噪声模型转化为加性噪声模型,然后对变换后的图像进行双树复小波变换(Dualtree Complex Wavelet Transform,DCWT),并对复数小波系数的统计分布进行建模。在此先验分布的基础上,通过运用贝叶斯估计方法从含噪系数中恢复原始系数,达到滤除噪声的目的。实验结果表明该方法在去除噪声的同时保留了图像的细节信息,取得了很好的降噪效果。     

How do children do mathematics with LOGO?

Abstract  This paper considers some results of a study designed to investigate the kinds of mathematical activity undertaken by children (aged between 8 and 11) as they learned to program in LOGO. A model of learning modes is proposed, which attempts to describe the ways in which children used and acquired understanding of the programming/mathematical concepts involved. The remainder of the paper is concerned with discussing the validity and limitations of the model, and its implications for further research and curriculum development.