Programmatic Cost Risk Analysis for Highway Megaprojects

Highway megaprojects (construction projects over $100 million) are fraught with uncertainty. These projects have historically experienced increases in project costs from the time that a project is first proposed or programmed until the time that they are completed. Persistent cost underestimation reflects poorly on the industry in general but more specifically on engineers. Traditional methods take a deterministic, conservative approach to project cost estimating and then add a contingency factor that varies depending on the stage of project definition, experience, and other factors. This approach falls short, and no industry standard stochastic estimating practice is currently available. This paper presents a methodology developed by the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) for its Cost Estimating Validation Process. Nine case studies, with a mean cumulative value of over $22 billion, are presented and analyzed. Programmatic risks are summarized as economic, environmental, third party, right-of-way, program management, geotechnical, design process, construction, and other minor risks. WSDOT is successfully using the range cost output from this procedure to convey project costs to management and the public.     

Partnering: Why Project Owner-Contractor Relationships Change

Over the last decade, research in the construction industry has explored the owner-contractor relationship in project management resulting in a different paradigm called partnering. Partnering is a relationship characterized by cooperation and collaboration in contrast to the adversarial relationship more commonly experienced between owners and contractors. This study utilized data collected from 276 construction projects to examine the stability in the owner-contractor relationship. Owner-contractor relationships were classified as being adversarial, guarded adversarial, informal partners, or project partners. Fifty-eight percent of the projects experienced some fundamental change in working relationship—either positive or negative. Projects that began as formal partnerships were the most stable with over two thirds ending as they began. Guarded adversarial was the least stable with fewer than 30% maintaining this kind of relationship at the end of the project. Content analysis of the reasons stated for the change revealed factors that contribute to an improvement or deterioration in working relationships. The writers use this analysis to make recommendations for sustaining and improving partnerships between owner and contractors.     

Linguistic environment of 1- to 2-year-old twins.

Investigated differences in the language learning environments of singletons and twins, with special reference to pragmatic factors that might be expected to differ in dyadic and triadic interactive situations. Six twin pairs and 12 singleton children (all firstborn) were observed in natural interactions with their mothers, once at 15 mo of age and again at 21 mo of age. Findings reveal that twins were lower than singletons on all measures of language development and that their language learning environments were significantly different. Although twin mothers spoke and interacted with their children as much as singleton mothers when twins were analyzed together, when analyzed as individuals, twin children received less speech directed specifically to them, participated in fewer and shorter episodes of joint attentional focus, and had fewer and shorter conversations with their mothers. Twin mothers were also more directive in their interactional styles. Correlational analyses indicated that variation of these language learning environment factors for the sample as a whole, and variation for some of these factors within the twin group itself, were related to early language growth. It is proposed that both the quantitative and qualitative differences observed in the language learning environments of singletons and twins derive from the nature of the triadic situation and that these differences have important effects on the child's early language development. (23 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Sources of Changes in Design–Build Contracts for a Governmental Owner

In recent years, many U.S. federal, state, and local governments have been authorized to use the design–build method of project delivery instead of the traditional design–bid–build method. Recent studies have not been definitive on the cost advantage of design–build for governmental owners. There are fewer change orders in design–build due to design errors because the designer (architect/engineer) and contractor are one entity, but there are other causes of change orders. Some literature suggests that changes requested by the owner of the facility are greater with the design–build method. This research examines the causes for construction-phase changes in 14 design–build and 20 design–bid–build projects. Total changes, expressed as number per contract, cost per contract, or percentage of original contract, were significantly lower in design–build. Fewer design errors in design–build accounted for this advantage. The number of owner-requested changes was significantly greater in design–build. The cost of owner-requested changes, averaged over all the projects, was significantly less for design–bid–build. The differences in changes due to differing site conditions were not significant. The concept that there are more owner-requested changes in design–build projects is supported by this research.     

大型采矿工程项目的技术经济评价

大型采矿工程项目投资大、建设周期长、变化因素多,在进行项目可行性研究分析时更应注意对项目技术经济进行详细的评价,本文利用对工程经济学、技术经济学的一般理论知识,对大型采矿工程的技术经济评价进行初步研究,主要包括在对大型采矿工程项目的技术经济特点的基础上,讨论了大型采矿工程项目的技术经济评价方法,文章结构体现从普遍到特殊的思想.     

Project Management in Construction: Software Use and Research Directions

This paper focuses on future research and the use of project management software in the construction industry. Data are drawn from an empirical study of project management professionals that yielded 240 replies (35% response rate), 42 of which were from the construction industry. Data were collected on: demographics and work environment, project management software usage patterns, analytical technique usage, data management, and suggestions for future research. The results indicate that construction professionals have different characteristics, needs and preferences, as compared to the overall sample. The study shows that construction professionals are more experienced and educated than the respondents in the overall study, they tend to work on fewer projects with larger numbers of activities, and they are more likely to use Primavera (Primavera, Inc., Bala Cynwyd, Pa.) than Microsoft Project (Microsoft Corp., Redmond, Wash.). Construction respondents are heavy users of critical path analysis for planning and control, resource scheduling for planning, and earned value analysis for control. The number of activities in a typical project and the use of software for all active projects were the key determinants of the usage of specific analytical techniques. These factors are also significant determinants of the types of information entered and updated, although the effect is weaker. Although construction professionals are generally satisfied with the quality of schedules produced by the software, they still expressed a clear interest in future research on resource scheduling∕leveling in general and a net present value option in particular. To maximize the impact on practice, development of new planning and control methods should include their integration into project management software.     

Project Delivery Systems and Project Change: Quantitative Analysis

Design/build has become one of the favored project delivery methods in the engineering construction industry. Numerous studies have advocated the use of design/build over the traditional design/bid/build delivery approach. A comprehensive analysis of 67 global projects from the Construction Industry Institute's database shows that design/build projects may not provide all the benefits to project performance. The study found timesaving was a definitive advantage of design/build project delivery, but, the positive effects of cost and productivity changes were not convincing. Based on the results of the study, the project management expertise and experience of the contractor may have a greater impact on project performance outcomes than focusing on project delivery strategy only.     

Safety Issues on Global Projects

Global construction projects that involve collaboration between participants from multiple countries can often lead to conflicts and delays due to different cultural perceptions of acceptable levels of safety among the different project participants. The current literature has not explored the origins, extent and costs of these delays, as well as ways to remedy them on global projects. Detailed case studies of four comparable global infrastructure projects indicate that legal rules, cultural values and the prevailing economic situation in their countries of origin, influenced project participants’ perception of safety. Differing mindsets on these projects clashed, leading to project delays and costs. Project participants unsuccessfully attempted to use a strategy of education to improve safety levels, and then resorted to more successful coercive strategies such as the imposition of fines. This research contributes to: practice, by identifying challenges that international contractors face when attempting to transfer safety techniques to developing countries on short-term global projects; and to theory by shedding light on cultural challenges faced on global projects.     

Project Performance versus Use of Technologies at Project and Phase Levels

Lack of information regarding technology benefits along with uncertain competitive advantage from new technology have resulted in industry reluctance to implement new technologies. An industry-wide survey was used to collect project data from more than 200 capital facility projects on the issue of technology usage and overall project success. Twenty-two research hypotheses are presented and analyzed according to five different data class variables: industry sector, total installed cost, public versus private, greenfield versus expansion versus renovation, and typical versus advanced projects. Findings pertaining to associations between project success and technology usage at the project and phase level are discussed. The results of this research indicate that several technologies may contribute significantly to project performance in terms of cost and schedule success, particularly for certain types of projects. In addition, project schedule success is more closely associated with technology utilization than is project cost success. Findings from this study can provide companies with information on technology benefits and whether to use certain technologies.     

High-tech with the human touch: Using telehealth to reach America's children.

[Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 31(2) of Professional Psychology: Research and Practice (see record 2007-17403-001). On page 4, the last sentence of text incorrectly reads, "For additional telehealth project, policy, legal, and funding information, visit OAT's web site at http://www.telehealth.hrsa.gov." The correct web site address is http://telehealth.hrsa.gov.] In the past decade, we have seen new telecommunication and information technologies used to provide health services, health professional and consumer education, and public health and administrative services. The application of these tools to health care, commonly referred to as telehealth, provides an unprecedented opportunity, as we embark on a new millennium, to take services to those in need-to "carry the water to the desert." Telehealth provides both a means to increase access, and to reengineer the processes of care, enhancing the equality and effectiveness of health services. This article illustrates how telehealth has helped children and youth in various health care settings. Many of these projects have been initiated with federal funds from OAT or other federal agencies. Some of the projects use technologies that require special phone lines and expensive equipment ranging from $15,000 to $50,000; others run over regular phone lines and use equipment costing between $500 to $1,000. Psychologists are involved in many of these projects as initiators of services, as members of multidisciplinary teams, and as researchers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Linguistic styles: Language use as an individual difference.

Can language use reflect personality style? Studies examined the reliability, factor structure, and validity of written language using a word-based, computerized text analysis program. Daily diaries from 15 substance abuse inpatients, daily writing assignments from 35 students, and journal abstracts from 40 social psychologists demonstrated good internal consistency for over 36 language dimensions. Analyses of the best 15 language dimensions from essays by 838 students yielded 4 factors that replicated across written samples from another 381 students. Finally, linguistic profiles from writing samples were compared with Thematic Apperception Test coding, self-reports, and behavioral measures from 79 students and with self-reports of a 5-factor measure and health markers from more than 1,200 students. Despite modest effect sizes, the data suggest that linguistic style is an independent and meaningful way of exploring personality. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Social Network Analysis of Collaborative Ventures for Overseas Construction Projects

As the world construction market becomes more globalized, an increasing number of construction companies, including both large companies (LCs) and small and medium-sized companies (SMCs), have extended their business to the global market. During this process, the number of collaborative ventures to mitigate the burden of entry risks has greatly increased. This study aims to investigate the formation of construction firms’ collaborative networks for performing international projects from both the LC and SMC network perspectives. To this end, 389 real cases of overseas projects executed by Korean firms over the last two decades that involved collaboration were analyzed using social network analysis (SNA) approach. The result showed that LCs and SMCs have different perspectives when pursuing collaborative ventures for overseas construction projects; LCs have a tendency to form large and dense networks, whereas SMCs prefer to maintain long-term and targeted relationships. Moreover, this study showed a series of apparent tendencies in the development of collaboration networks to realize better profit performance under risky project conditions. Through analysis based on real cases, this study validated the applicability of SNA in analyzing the collaboration in the construction domain. More importantly, this study is useful as an aid for developing collaboration strategies to achieve better outcomes while considering the relevant network patterns and their different levels of performance under the assorted network attributes.     

Communication Patterns in Construction at Construction Manager Level

The procurement process of construction projects has been affected by developments in the field of Information Technology, as well as by the need to cope with growing technological challenges stemming from the integration of multiple building systems into tall and complex buildings. Furthermore, since the procurement phases are undertaken simultaneously, project complexity is increased, and increased integration among them is therefore required. These constraints have made the management of complex construction projects less of an architectural and engineering issue and more of a managerial one. In turn, this has led to an increasing use of the “construction management” concept in the procurement process. This study focused on communications in construction management procurement of building and residential projects in Israel. Communications between the construction manager and the design team were found to be vital in ensuring adherence to project objectives. Communication means were classified as “formal”—written technical information, and as “informal”—verbal communications. Construction managers in Israel still use informal communications in 50% of their interactions with their project counterparts. The study concludes that design capabilities should be one of the essential qualifications required of a construction management firm. In addition to the more traditional responsibilities, such as planning, scheduling, and coordination, the scope of the construction manager’s professional duties should emphasize the aspect of quality management.     

Project Alliancing at National Museum of Australia—Collaborative Process

Project alliancing is a new alternative to traditional project delivery systems, especially in the commercial building sector. The Collaborative Process is a theoretical model of people and systems characteristics that are required to reduce the adversarial nature of most construction projects. Although developed separately, both are responses to the same pressures. Project alliancing was just used successfully to complete the National Museum of Australia. This project was analyzed as a case study to determine the extent to which it could be classified as a “collaborative project.” Five key elements of The Collaborative Process were reviewed and numerous examples from the management of this project were cited that support the theoretical recommendations of this model. In the case of this project, significant added value was delivered to the client and many innovations resulted from the collective work of the parties to the contract. It was concluded that project alliances for commercial buildings offer many advantages over traditional project delivery systems, which are related to increasing the levels of collaboration among a project management team.     

Decision Support System to Evaluate and Compare Concession Options

With the increased popularity of concession projects over the last three decades, there is a need for a decision support system (DSS) capable of evaluating and comparing several concession project investment (CPI) options in an effective and efficient manner. Hence, a novel DSS has been developed that takes into consideration both financial and nonfinancial aspects of the investment option, as well as the uncertainties commonly encountered during the feasibility stage of a project. The DSS is fully implemented as a standalone computer software package, ECCO (evaluate and compare concession options), in order to be of practical use. This paper outlines and validates ECCO’s design and structure through the demonstration of its capabilities in the evaluation and comparison of three real-life CPI case studies.     

A corpus analysis of patterns of age-related change in conversational speech.

Conversational speech from over 300 speakers from 17 to 68 years of age was analyzed for age-related changes in the timing and content of spoken language production. Overall, several relationships between the lexical content, timing, and fluency of speech emerged, such that more novel and lower frequency words were associated with slower speech and higher levels of disfluencies. Speaker age was associated with slower speech and more filled pauses, particularly those associated with lexical selection. Increasing age, however, was also associated with longer utterances and greater lexical diversity. On balance, these analyses present a picture of age-related changes in speech performance that largely support data obtained from controlled laboratory studies. However, particular patterns of age-related change may be moderated in conversational situations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Hyperactive and hypoxic children: Signal detection, sustained attention, and behavior.

Two parameters from signal detection theory—perceptual sensitivity and decision criterion cutoff scores—were used in the analysis of vigilance performance of 30 hyperactive (mean age 8.5 yrs), 30 hypoxic (mean age 9 yrs), and 47 normal (mean age 8.8 yrs) children. Signal detection analyses of 3 Continuous Performance Test conditions indicated that with increasing age, Ss obtained significantly more hits, fewer false alarms, higher perceptual sensitivity, and responded with greater caution. Overall deficits in signal discrimination (perceptual sensitivity level) were obtained for both the hyperactive and hypoxic Ss when compared to normal age-mates. Whereas the hypoxic Ss demonstrated additional decrements in sustaining attention (sensitivity decrement over time), the hyperactive Ss were impaired by low-response caution, reflecting difficulty inhibiting impulsive responses. Possible differences in hyperactive sample characteristics across studies and time-related recovery factors following hypoxia are discussed. (43 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Contextual Information Requirements of Cost Estimators from Past Construction Projects

Past project data sources provide key information for construction cost estimators. Previous research studies show that relying only on one’s own experience during estimation results in estimators’ bias. Having and referring to historical databases, containing objective information on what happened in past projects, are essential for reducing estimators’ biases. The first step toward development of useful project history databases is to understand what information estimators require from past projects. The research described in this paper targets estimators’ information needs identified through interviews, brainstorming sessions, task analyses, and card games conducted with estimators with different experience levels and specialized in heavy/civil and commercial construction projects, and exploration of historical and standard databases available in companies to determine what is being currently represented. Findings show that estimators need contextual information, depicting the conditions under which specific production rates were achieved, so that they can identify which production rate would be more realistic to use during the production rate estimation of an activity in a new bid. Comparison of the contextual information needs identified in this research with information items available in historical data sources (such as company cost reports, RSMeans, previous studies) highlighted some gaps and important opportunities for improvements in those sources. The identified contextual information items are significant for practitioners in developing ways to augment their existing project history databases to make them more beneficial for estimators.     

"High-Tech With the Human Touch: Using Telehealth to Reach America's Children." Correction to Wasem and Puskin (2000).

Reports an error in "High-tech with the human touch: Using telehealth to reach America's children" by Cathy Wasem and Dena Puskin (Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 2000[Feb], Vol 31[1], 3-4). On page 4, the last sentence of text incorrectly reads, "For additional telehealth project, policy, legal, and funding information, visit OAT's web site at http://www.telehealth.hrsa.gov." The correct web site address is http://telehealth.hrsa.gov. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2007-17617-001.) In the past decade, we have seen new telecommunication and information technologies used to provide health services, health professional and consumer education, and public health and administrative services. The application of these tools to health care, commonly referred to as telehealth, provides an unprecedented opportunity, as we embark on a new millennium, to take services to those in need-to "carry the water to the desert." Telehealth provides both a means to increase access, and to reengineer the processes of care, enhancing the equality and effectiveness of health services. This article illustrates how telehealth has helped children and youth in various health care settings. Many of these projects have been initiated with federal funds from OAT or other federal agencies. Some of the projects use technologies that require special phone lines and expensive equipment ranging from $15,000 to $50,000; others run over regular phone lines and use equipment costing between $500 to $1,000. Psychologists are involved in many of these projects as initiators of services, as members of multidisciplinary teams, and as researchers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)