SOM聚类方法在卷烟零售户分类中的应用

为了解卷烟零售户的基本情况、分析其基本特征,根据烟草行业卷烟销售的特点,利用指标组合方法选取零售户经营业态、市场类型等零售户基本属性指标,以及销售行为指标和销售卷烟品种数构建了数据模型,并采用自组织特征映射神经网络(SOM,Self-organizing Feature Maps)方法对零售户进行分类,从最小类间距离和组内离差平方和两方面验证聚类结果,确定最终的零售户分类数。结果表明,将采集的8713个零售户样本划分成7类,分类结果的吻合度最好。根据各聚类簇的特征,从营销服务、市场管理和客户关系管理等方面对各类零售户提出了相应的服务与管理对策。     

基于卷烟零售户销售潜力分值(G值)的新产品投放策略研究

为有针对性地投放货源,做好新产品营销,提出基于卷烟零售户销售潜力分值(G值)的新产品投放策略(G值策略)。首先利用数据挖掘(DM)方法计算产品属性重要程度,再结合模糊综合评价法对零售户的销售能力进行评分,获得零售户的G值,最后根据G值排序进行货源投放。实践表明,G值策略优于传统的星级客户策略,能够有效促进卷烟新产品营销。     

基于神经网络的烟草零售户销售假烟行为的预警模型研究

对卷烟零售户销售假烟驱动因素分析的基础上,通过对安徽某市烟草专卖局的实地调研以及所获得历史数据的系统分析,构建了基于BP神经网络的零售户销售假烟行为的预警模型,该模型综合考虑了零售户的销售行为、零售户自身的特征以及时间因素等十二个预警输入指标。实证表明所构建的模型稳健性较好,且预测准确率得到明显提高。      

自下而上分配货源 逐步实现按订单组织货源

2005年下半年开始,行业内普遍出现低档烟紧缺的现象,这对以农村市场为主的钦州烟草而言,尤如雪上加霜,货源供应和卷烟销售的矛盾十分突出。零售户对货源情况不了解,把紧俏烟缺货的原因归根于烟草公司有意垄断,对烟草公司的满意度出现下滑;客户经理为了完成销售任务,争抢低档烟指标,影响了团队凝聚力;采购部门为了争取更多的低档烟,不得不超出市场需求多购进高档卷烟;营销部门为了满足各方要求,做到公正、合理分配低档烟货源,确保正常的卷烟购销存比,不得不花大力气做调整工作却收效甚微。这些问题考验着钦州烟草的销售网络,考验着钦州烟草的…     

层次分析与聚类分析、 判别分析在卷烟零售户分类中的应用

为了优化卷烟零售户资源配置, 调研了石河子市烟草公司, 构建了卷烟零售户价值评价指标体系, 运用层次分析法确定各指标的权重, 用聚类方法对701户卷烟零售户评价指标数据进行聚类分析, 用判别分析检验聚类结果, 并针对每类客户群的特点提出了相应的营销策略。 结果表明, 701户卷烟零售户可分为9类, 判别分析与聚类结果一致率为95.3%, K中心聚类分析得出的9类客户群是比较合理的, Fisher判别得出的判别函数能有效识别新零售户所属的客户群类别。 零售户价值评价指标体系能有效地表征卷烟零售户的价值, 层次分析结合聚类分析、 判别分析可用于卷烟零售户分类。      

透析卷烟零售户订单

零售户订单是卷烟零售户购进货源的一揽子表现,其中主要的内容有购进品牌、数量、单价及合计,在零售户的台帐上则为配送单。由于工作的缘故,经常接触零售户的台帐,也因而经常看到零售户的订单(配送单)。     

维护“一价制” 不能靠强制

卷烟零售户销售卷烟实行统一的零售价,可避免零售户之间相互低价竞销,有利于提高他们的营利水平,从而增强零售户守法经营的自觉性,促进卷烟零售市场净化率的提高。从2004年开始,各地烟草专卖局都在不断探索、完善统一卷烟零售价的工作。比较普遍的做法是:先由县烟草专卖局协助卷烟零售户按片区成立自律小组,选出自律小组长。     

专卖体制下烟草行业统一分销模式设计

针对烟草行业卷烟分销渠道建设的现状与特点,提出烟草行业统一分销管理模式,将卷烟分销企业的"拉式"采购和"推式"销售转变为卷烟生产企业的"推式"销售和卷烟零售户的"拉式"采购,通过电子商务平台实现市场(卷烟零售户)拉动生产(卷烟生产企业)的市场化分销模式。     

基于AHP-熵值组合赋权法的卷烟零售户信用评价模型研究

本文提出在构建可量化的卷烟零售户信用评价指标库的基础上，研究基于AHP-熵值组合赋权法的卷烟零售户信用评价模型。该模型采用主观赋权法（AHP）和客观赋权法（熵权法）相结合的组合赋权方法，以弥补单一赋权带来的不足，力求将主观随机性控制在一定范围内，确保主客观赋权中的中正，实现卷烟零售户信用的定性和定量评估的有效结合。最后以某市卷烟零售户为算例实验对象，对部分样本商户进行测试，发现测试结果与实际情况相符，印证了本文研究的卷烟零售户信用评价模型具有较好的有效性。     

简析卷烟零售户的赢利水平——基于波特“五力”竞争模型思考

引子:卷烟市场的竞争,从本质上说是零售终端的竞争。零售户是卷烟营销网络的终端,也是消费者的直接面对者,他们的依存度、忠诚度、满意度、成长度,决定着烟草行业在未来激烈的国际竞争中能否取胜的关键。盈利是零售户经营卷烟的根本目的,因而,如何保障零售户销售卷烟的积极性,提高他们的盈利水平是当前我们烟草部门亟待解决的问题。     

基于图像识别技术的卷烟零售数据采集方法

为了实现卷烟零售数据的自动化采集,提出了一种基于图像识别技术的卷烟零售数据采集方法。首先,基于深度图设计一种人体检测与跟踪算法,稳定跟踪消费者在购买卷烟期间的行动轨迹;其次,实现一种7点式的人体关键点检测算法,检测顶式视角下的人体关键点;然后,构建卷烟的检测与识别算法,检测卷烟在图像中位置与姿态并识别卷烟的牌号;最后,融合人体跟踪信息、人体关键点信息、卷烟位置和牌号信息构建一种消费者行为识别方法,实现卷烟零售数据的采集。结果表明:数据采集方法的准确率达到95.6%,通过图像识别技术实现卷烟零售数据的自动化采集是可行的。      

基于混频模型的中部某省卷烟销量趋势预测

基于2008-2019年中部某省卷烟销量数据,本文运用混频MIDAS模型,对该省卷烟销量进行样本内和样本外预测,探索混频模型对卷烟销量预测的适用性.研究发现:饮料烟酒类商品零售价格指数、全社会消费品零售总额、工业增加值增长率等宏观经济变量是预测卷烟销量的有效先行指标.同时,混频MIDAS模型在卷烟销量的样本内和样本外预...     

Point of purchase cigarette promotions before and after the Master Settlement Agreement: exploring retail scanner data

Background

Evidence indicates that point of purchase (POP) advertising and promotions for cigarettes have increased since the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA). Retail promotions have the potential to offset the effects of cigarette tax and price increases and tobacco control programmes.

Objective

To describe the trend in the proportion of cigarette sales that occur as part of a POP promotion before and after the MSA.

Design

Scanner data were analysed on cigarette sales from a national sample of grocery stores, reported quarterly from 1994 through 2003. The proportion of total cigarette sales that occurred under any of three different types of POP promotions is presented.

Results

The proportion of cigarettes sold under a POP promotion increased notably over the sample period. Large increases in promoted sales are observed following implementation of the MSA and during periods of sustained cigarette excise tax increases.

Conclusions

The observed pattern of promoted cigarette sales is suggestive of a positive relationship between retail cigarette promotions, the MSA, and state cigarette tax increases. More research is needed to describe fully the relationship between cigarette promotions and tobacco control policy.     

Effect of the New York State cigarette fire safety standard on ignition propensity, smoke constituents, and the consumer market

Objectives: This study examines empirical evidence from the New York experience testing tobacco industry arguments made in opposition to fire safety standards for cigarettes. Design: Percentages of cigarettes exhibiting full length burns (FLBs), cigarette sales before and following the implementation of the New York standards, a sample of retail cigarette prices, brand availability, and selected smoke constituent yields were compared between cigarettes sold in New York and two other states. Cigarette paper analysis was conducted on cigarettes sold in New York. Results: New York cigarette brands averaged 10.0% FLBs as compared to 99.8% for California and Massachusetts brands. Reduced ignition propensity (RIP) appears to have been achieved by cigarette paper banding. Cigarette sales, prices, and brand availability do not appear to have been affected by the New York standards. Yields of the majority of smoke constituents tested did not differ substantially between RIP cigarettes sold in New York as compared to the same brands sold in Massachusetts. Average yields of tar, carbon monoxide, and two compounds were slightly higher, the yields of seven compounds were higher for one brand only, and nicotine was lower, among New York brands tested. Conclusions: RIP cigarette brands have been designed to meet the New York fire safety standards. Their introduction has not affected cigarette sales or prices in New York. There is no evidence that the small increases in smoke constituent yields affect the already highly toxic nature of cigarette smoke. Data on smoking caused fires, deaths, and injuries dating from after the change in law are not yet available. Such data will be able to address the question of whether the demonstrated reduced ignition standards are associated with reduced fires and injuries. Based on the New York experience, prior industry objections to producing RIP cigarettes are unfounded. Other states and nations should adopt similar standards.     

国产混合型卷烟与国外知名品牌混合型卷烟的分析比较及发展思路

选择市场销售份额较大、档次较高的国产混合型卷烟与国外知名品牌的混合型卷烟进行系统详细的分析比较,找出我国混合型卷烟在物理特性、烟支结构、化学成分、烟气特征、感官质量等各个方面与世界知名品牌的差距。我国混合型卷烟在设计思路及化学成分上存在以下不足：（１）卷烟吸阻分布不合理,滤嘴吸阻偏低;（２）卷烟纸透气度偏高,而滤嘴通风稀释较少;（３）卷烟烟丝化学成分不协调,糖氮比偏高、氮碱比偏低、糖碱比则有高有低。这些差异是造成国产混合型卷烟吸味不佳及焦油量偏高的主要原因。针对这些不足,文章指出了我国混合型卷烟的发展思路及研究方向,认为应从产品设计、工艺加工、基础研究等方面入手。     

The ID effect on youth access to cigarettes

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect on cigarette sales rates when minors present identification (ID). DESIGN: Controlled experiment in which minors attempting to purchase cigarettes either carried a valid photo ID (documenting they were minors) or carried no ID, and were instructed to show the ID or admit having no ID if the clerk requested proof of age. SETTING: Census of retail stores in six urban and suburban Colorado counties. SUBJECTS: Retail cigarette clerks, uninformed of the study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Relative risk (RR) of cigarette sale to a minor when ID was requested and presented versus requested but not presented. RESULTS: When clerks requested ID, sales were more than six times as frequent if minors presented ID than if they did not (12.2% v 2.0%, RR 6.2, p < 0.0001). The relative risk remained substantially unchanged under adjustment for demographic and circumstantial covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Presentation of photo ID in compliance checks increases illegal cigarette sales to minors. The impact may vary among states or locales and depends strongly on how often clerks request proof of age. Clerk training and responsible cigarette sales practices should include age calculations from photo ID. Programmes relying on investigative purchase attempts to estimate actual rates of cigarette sales to minors should ascertain and replicate local ID presenting behaviours that minors typically use during genuine attempts to buy cigarettes.     

Do increases in cigarette prices lead to increases in sales of cigarettes with high tar and nicotine yields?

We used scanner data on cigarette prices and sales collected from supermarkets across the United States from 1994 to 2004 to test the hypothesis that cigarette prices are positively correlated with sales of cigarettes with higher tar and nicotine content. During this period the average inflation-adjusted price for menthol cigarettes increased 55.8%. Price elasticities from multivariate regression models suggest that this price increase led to an increase of 1.73% in sales-weighted average tar yields and a 1.28% increase in sales-weighted average nicotine yields for menthol cigarettes. The 50.5% price increase of nonmenthol varieties over the same period yielded an estimated increase of 1% in tar per cigarette but no statistically significant increase in nicotine yields. An ordered probit model of the impact of cigarette prices on cigarette strength (ultra-light, light, full flavor, unfiltered) offers an explanation: As cigarette prices increase, the probability that stronger cigarette types will be sold increases. This effect is larger for menthol than for nonmenthol cigarettes. Our results are consistent with earlier population-based cross-sectional and longitudinal studies showing that higher cigarette prices and taxes are associated with increasing consumption of higher-yield cigarettes by smokers.     

基于自组织建模方法的卷烟购买因素分析

为研究不同卷烟规格消费人群的购买动机,针对2015年在销的3个价档、4个卷烟规格的品牌形象、价值（价格）、社交应酬、健康、新品、产品和渠道/宣传促销七大类因素进行问卷调研,并采用自组织GMDH算法进行购买因素分析,结果表明:不同卷烟规格最重要的购买因素主要分布在品牌形象和价值（价格）两个大类中,其中3个价档卷烟的购买因素侧重点分别体现在产品价值、品牌知名度和身份地位的象征性上,而4个产品的购买因素侧重点分别体现在产品价值、品牌历史形象、社交应酬优势和产品性价比上。该结果可为工业企业新产品市场投放和老产品提质维护方面提供参考。      

A comprehensive review of state laws governing Internet and other delivery sales of cigarettes in the United States.

All U.S. states regulate face-to-face tobacco sales at retail outlets. However, the recent growth of delivery sales of tobacco products by Internet and mail-order vendors has prompted new state regulations focused on preventing youth access and tax evasion. To date, there are no comprehensive and systematic analyses of these laws. The objectives of this study were to: (a) document the historical enactment of the laws; (b) assess the nature and extent of the laws; and (c) examine the relationship between the presence of laws and state tobacco control policy and other contextual variables. Between 1992 and 2006, 34 states (67%) enacted a relevant law, with 27 states' laws (45%) effective between 2003 and 2006. Five states banned direct-to-consumer shipment of cigarettes. The remaining 29 states' laws included a combination of requirements addressing minimum age/ID, payment issues, shipping, vendor licensure and related issues, tax collection/remittance, and penalties/enforcement. States with delivery sales laws have stronger youth tobacco access policies and state tobacco control environments, as well as higher state cigarette excise tax rates and revenue, past-month cigarette use rates, and perceptions of risk of use by adolescents. This paper provides the policy context for understanding Internet and other cigarette delivery sales laws in the U.S. It also provides a systematic framework for ongoing policy surveillance and will contribute to future analyses of the impact of these laws on successfully reducing youth access to cigarettes and preventing tax evasion.