Combined Management of Groundwater Resources and Water Supply Systems at Basin Scale Under Climate Change

Water stress conditions associated with population growth, climate change, and groundwater contamination, represent a significant challenge for all stakeholders in the water sector. Increasing the resilience of Water Supply Systems (WSSs) becomes of fundamental importance: along with an adequate level of service, sustainability targets must be ensured. A long-term management strategy is strictly connected to a holistic approach, based on analyses at different scales. To this end, both groundwater modeling tools and water management models, with different spatial and temporal scales, are routinely and independently employed. Here, we propose a coupled approach combining: i) groundwater models (MODFLOW) to investigate different stress scenarios, involving climate change and anthropic activities; ii) water management models (Aquator), to assess the water resources availability and the best long-term management strategy for large-scale WSS. The management models are implemented starting from input and output flows derived by groundwater models: this leads to establish a comprehensive framework usually not defined in management models and including a quantitative characterization of the aquifer. The proposed methodology, general and applicable to any study area, is here implemented to the WSS of Reggio Emilia Province, and its main groundwater resource, the Enza aquifer, considering three different stress scenarios for groundwater models (BAU, ST1, and ST2), and for management strategies (BAU, BAU_RV2, ST2). Among the key results, we observe that coupling the two model types: i) allows evaluating water resources availability in connection with management rules; ii) leads to examining more realistic operation choices; iii) permits planning of infrastructures at basin scale.

     

Planning for Regional Water System Sustainability Through Water Resources Security Assessment Under Uncertainties

A leader-follower relationship in multiple layers of decision makers under uncertainties is a critical challenge associated with water resources security (WRS). To address this problem, a credibility-based chance-constrained hierarchical programming model with WRS assessment is developed for regional water system sustainability planning. This model can deal with the sequential decision-making problem with different goals and preferences, and reflect uncertainties presented as fuzzy sets. The effectiveness of the developed model is demonstrated through a real-world water resources management system in Beijing, China. A leader-follower interactive solution algorithm based on satisfactory degree is utilized to improve computational efficiency. Results show the that: (a) surface water, groundwater, recycled water, and off water would account for 27.01, 27.44, 23.11, and 22.44% of the total water supplies, respectively; (b) the entire pollutant emissions and economic benefits would consequently decrease by 31.53 and 22.88% when the statue changes from quite safe to extremely far from safe; and (c) a high credibility level would correspond to low risks of insufficient water supply and overloaded pollutant emissions, which lowers economic benefits and pollutant emissions. By contrast, a low credibility level would decrease the limitations of constraints, which leads to high economic benefits and pollutant emissions, but system risk would be increased. These findings can aid different decision makers in identifying the desired strategies for regional water resources management under multiple uncertainties, and support the in-depth analysis of the interrelationships among water security, system efficiency, and credibility level.     

Regional Water Use Structure Optimization Under Multiple Uncertainties Based on Water Resources Vulnerability Analysis

In this paper, a modeling framework by combining system dynamic (SD) model and optimal allocation model was developed to study water resources vulnerability and optimal water use structure, and the framework was applied in the middle reaches of Heihe River basin, northwest of China. The SD model could describe the dynamical change of water resources vulnerability by integrating water resources with socio-economic effect. The sensitivity analysis of SD model was then conducted to design appropriate scenarios for finding out the optimal development pattern, and based on which, an integrated water-saving scenario with lower water resources vulnerability was identified for optimization modeling. Then, an inexact fuzzy-parameter two-stage programming (IFTSP) model was developed and applied to optimize water use structure among industries under uncertainties. This study addresses the water resources vulnerability analysis in considering both water resources system and socio-economic system. Water resources vulnerability analysis was combined with optimization model to make adaptive water resources management plans. And the optimal allocation schemes under lower water resources vulnerability are more advantageous for regional sustainable development.     

基于耗水视角的水资源承载能力及其支撑流域调水规模研究

为科学地评价流域水资源承载能力,提出耗水视角下水资源支撑的最大经济规模和最大人口规模指标,构建了考虑流域节水、调水的水资源承载能力评判模型。以汉江流域为例,分别对流域不同水平年、不同调水规模情景下的水资源承载能力进行综合评判。结果表明:2020年、2030年规划水平年,流域在实施南水北调中线工程一期调出水量95亿m³、引汉济渭工程调出水量10亿m³ 后,流域水资源不仅仍能维持本流域发展,还能向外流域调出的最大水量分别为19.7亿m³和15.6亿m³。然而,2030年加大调水规模,实施南水北调中线工程调出水量130亿m³后,流域水资源不足以维持流域内社会经济的可持续发展,需要考虑外流域补水。在此基础上,基于协同学理论,构建考虑耗水因素的水资源承载系统序参量,建立协调度评估模型,以汉江流域襄阳地区为例从宏观层面评估水资源支撑流域社会经济发展态势。结果表明,襄阳地区水资源承载能力协调态势在2011—2017年间由较不协调逐步发展为基本协调,在考虑节水情况下水资源承载能力整体趋于良性发展。研究成果可为汉江流域远景跨流域引调水规模研究和确定长江补水规模提供科学依据和技术支撑。     

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources Systems in the Eastern Nile Basin

Planning effective joint development programs in shared river basins is thought to become better when such programs are preceded by integrated studies. This paper aims to provide such a study through a situation analysis with regard to the vulnerability of water resources systems in the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB). The focus was on using internationally recognized indicators and indices that can provide an insight about the situation in the region in a concise and illustrative fashion. A framework for assessing vulnerability of water systems was outlined and applied to the region. Based on a careful survey, a list of 31 indicators used for vulnerability assessment were identified and categorized to separate hydro-physical indicators from other indicators of socio-economic or political nature. The identified indicators were evaluated for the three ENB countries and illustrated in radar diagrams. Interpretations were drawn describing the vulnerability situation in each country. The main findings are: (1) vulnerability of water resources is highest in Sudan, followed by Ethiopia and then Egypt; (2) while vulnerability in Egypt stems mainly from hydro-physical factors; in Sudan and Ethiopia it is directly related to poverty and underdevelopment; (3) Higher stresses on available water resources in Egypt are due to increases in total withdrawals; while in Sudan and Ethiopia it is mainly due to water mal-distribution and quality deterioration; (4) governance factors in the three countries hinder the proper management of the available water resources.     

Groundwater Modeling Under Variable Operating Conditions Using SWAT,MODFLOW and MT3DMS: a Catchment Scale Approach to Water Resources Management

This paper presents an integrated modeling approach by linking soil and water application tool (SWAT), modular finite difference groundwater flow (MODFLOW) and modular 3-dimensional multi-species transport (MT3DMS) models capable of predicting a groundwater system response, in terms of flow and salt concentrations, to current and future development conditions. SWAT, a semi-distributed hydrologic model, estimates the spatio-temporal distribution of groundwater recharge rates. These rates are then input to MODFLOW using an interface module developed that maps the HRU-based spatial resolution of SWAT outflows into the cell-based spatial structure of inputs to MODFLOW and MT3DMS. The integrated SWAT-MODFLOW-MT3DMS model is used in modeling Dehloran aquifer system located in the arid western region of Iran, experiencing changes in land-use, irrigation system and pumping locations and loads. The results illustrate the significance of the developed integrated modeling tool in quantifying the impact of changes in land and surface water resources on its subsurface water system.     

Optimal Water Allocation of Surface and Ground Water Resources Under Climate Change with WEAP and IWOA Modeling

Water Resources Management - The water evaluation and planning (WEAP) approach and the invasive weed optimization algorithm (IWOA) are herein employed to determine the optimal operating policies in...     

Water Distribution Network Risk Analysis Under Simultaneous Consumption and Roughness Uncertainties

The design of water distribution networks (WDNs) is an optimization problem with minimization of pipes and their associated installation costs as the objective function. In this problem, securing the allowable minimum pressure or the allowable maximum velocity in the demand pattern is important. A reliable long-term system requires a high reliability when first designed. Thus, assessment of the network condition during the operational period, when it is first designed, can be an effective way to increase the network efficiency. In addition, consideration of uncertainty of network parameters is important. This paper develops a probabilistic model based on the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method to assess effects of those uncertainties simultaneously in the long-term performance of the network by considering various scenarios for variations of nodal demands and pipe roughness using different values of the coefficient of variation (CV) as the uncertainty measure. Consumption nodal demands and pipe roughness in a benchmark two-loop network are considered as uncertain variables. Calculation of a deterministic performance (failure) index (I _f ) for various generated probabilistic scenarios in the MCS method during a 30-year operational period simulation in this network show that an increase of uncertainty in each variable separately causes a decrease in the deterministically-designed network efficiency. Sensitivity of changing the average value of I _f calculations show a nodal demand deficit of 45 % and a nodal pressure deficit of 61 % during the operational period. This condition shows the necessity of considering uncertain changes of variables simultaneously during the operational period in the design of WDNs.     

北岙坑流域水资源的优化配置

浙江省仙居县位于浙江东南内陆，北蚕坑为永安溪第三大支流，流域面积192km2．流域开发现状为，已建成谷坦、北秦、西索3座水库，配套电站5座，并已建成向县城供水一期工程．但以革流域为主的水资源配置难以满足社会经济发展对水资源利用日益增长的需要，存在着工程不配套、效益受损、调水准和管理难等问题．因此，从分析现有工程出发，探索相邻流域水源补偿综合规划，以达到区域水资源有效地开发利用，最后选定方案五为最佳推荐方案．     

变化环境下大汶河水资源演变趋势及影响分析

应用泰安市大汶口水文站1955—2012年降水量、径流量和蒸发量资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法对不同时期各水文要素演变趋势进行了分析,同时用R/S法对每个水文要素的变异点及持续性进行了分析,并用Spearman相关分析法对各水文要素间的相关关系进行了分析。结果表明:年降水量呈微弱上升趋势,变化趋势呈逆持续性;径流量呈微弱下降趋势,变化趋势为逆持续性;蒸发量呈明显下降趋势,超过了5%的显著性水平,未来的变化趋势将与过去的变化趋势保持一致;降水量与径流量的相关度较高,降水量与蒸发量、径流量与蒸发量呈负相关,相关度较低。     

Modeling Multisource Multiuser Water Resources Allocation

Water shortage emerges and restricts the urban construction and the socio-economy development due to the rapid expansion of the cities throughout the world. Recently treated wastewater reuse, including rainwater collection and utilization, and seawater desalination, etc., has been put in practice in some cities. This paper presents the characteristics of urban multisource water and multiuser and a multi-objective optimization model of reasonable allocation on multisource water for multiuser under sufficiently considering the harmonious development among economy, society and environment. As a case study this model had been applied to the reasonable allocation of water supply and demand in Dalian City in 2010, 2015 and 2020, in which the maximal benefit of economy, society and environment was regarded as the multi-objectives and the step method was adopted to solve the model. The result indicates that the proportion of the reused water to the total water consumption is gradually increasing, but the proportion of the high quality water to the total water consumption is decreasing. In other words, as a secondary water resource, the reused water has replaced partial high quality water gradually. Consequently, the reasonable allocation of urban multisource water for multiuser is the available approach to alleviate urban water crisis and achieve the sustainable utilization of urban water resources.     

Basin Initial Water Rights Allocation under Multiple Uncertainties: a Trade-off Analysis

Economic losses and inequities caused by uncertainties in the availability of water intensify the competition between water sectors, making the allocation of water rights of vital importance for minimizing water conflicts. In this study, an Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Programming (ITSP) model for water rights allocation is developed that contains an industrial allocation preference coefficient and involves the risk control of Conditional Value-at-Risk theory and Gini coefficient constraints (ITSP-CG). Using China’s Taihu Basin as a case study, it is shown that optimized water rights allocation schemes can reduce the risk of inequitable localized water deficits, a narrower confidence interval results in higher economic loss, and, when the confidence level is fixed, tighter control of water availability results in water efficient sectors having an increasing preference for allocation schemes. It is also shown that Basin Authorities need to trade-off the equitable allocation of water rights and economic returns over a particular planning period.

     

海河流域水资源保护工作的思考

根据水利部治水思路由工程水利向资源水利转变的指导思想 ,分析了当前海河流域水资源保护存在的问题及其产生的原因 ;提出了海河流域水资源保护的主要任务、目标及解决存在问题的对策措施     

水环境与水资源保护流域化管理的探讨

从探讨对水环境及流域化管理的新认识开始 ,提出流域化管理的战略、政策与重点 ,对我国流域化管理的战略原则问题进行商讨 ,最后提出流域可持续发展的要求 ,以长江流域为例 ,提出了流域可持续发展战略框架     

长江流域水利文献信息资源共享研究

信息资源是水利信息化的重要基础,信息资源共享是水利信息化得以实现的重要手段。文献信息资源作为最基础的信息资源,必然要实现共享。长江水利委员会数字图书馆建设通过创建一个融合文献信息资源采集、处理、发布和服务的应用平台,将自有特色文献、专业数据库和网络信息等资源进行整合,将文献信息服务推送到用户的桌面,促进了长江委内文献信息资源的有效共享,为"数字长江"的发展提供了基础数据。     

Water Resources Under Climate Change in Himalayan Basins

Water Resources Management - Climate change has significant implications for glaciers and water resources in the Himalayan region. There is an urgent need to improve our current knowledge and...     

基于不确定性的渠系水资源优化配置

在以渠灌为主的灌区,设计合理的渠系工作制度,将水资源在渠系间进行高效配置具有重要意义。在实际灌溉中,同级渠道的灌水时间往往存在较大差异。为此,在灌区渠系建立0-1线性整数规划优化配水模型,并考虑了此过程中的不确定性,将模型运用到汾东灌区,进行求解。首先将支渠划分为两个灌溉组同时进行灌水,然后对每个灌溉组内的斗渠划分轮灌组,最后再将斗渠下的农渠划分为若干个轮灌组,实现在某次灌溉过程中的轮流输水。这样就缩短了各条渠道的输水时间,有利于提高灌水效率,且因不确定性信息的加入,结果更符合实际。通过上述优化过程,可以得到整个灌区的渠系工作制度,为决策者提供决策参考。     

Participatory Modeling Workshops in a Water-Stressed Basin Result in Gains in Modeling Capacity but Reveal Disparity in Water Resources Management Priorities

Participatory modeling workshops were held in Sonora, México, with the goal of developing water resources management strategies in a water-stressed basin. A model of the water resources system, consisting of watershed hydrology, water resources infrastructure, and groundwater models, was developed deliberatively in the workshops, along with scenarios of future climate and development. Participants used the final version of the water resources systems model to select management strategies. The performance of the strategies was based on the reliability of meeting current and future demands at a daily time scale over a year’s period. Pre- and post-workshop surveys were developed and administered. The survey questions focused on evaluation of participants’ modeling capacity and the utility and accuracy of the models. The selected water resources strategies and the associated, expected reliability varied widely among participants. Most participants could be clustered into three groups with roughly equal numbers of participants that varied in terms of reliance on expanding infrastructure vs. demand modification; expectations of reliability; and perceptions of social, environmental, and economic impacts. The wide range of strategies chosen and associated reliabilities indicate that there is a substantial degree of uncertainty in how future water resources decisions could be made in the region. The pre- and post-survey results indicate that participants believed their modeling abilities increased and beliefs in the utility of models increased as a result of the workshops.     

太湖流域水资源综合规划概要

《太湖流域水资源综合规划》在查清流域水资源及其开发利用现状、分析评价水资源和水环境承载能力的基础上,根据流域经济社会发展和生态环境保护对水资源的要求,紧紧围绕流域水质型缺水严重、本地水资源不足和水生态环境恶化等核心问题,提出水资源合理开发、高效利用、优化配置、全面节约、有效保护和综合治理的布局及方案,促进流域资源环境与经济社会协调发展,以水资源的可持续利用支撑经济社会的可持续发展.     

太湖流域水利信息化建设

从保障太湖流域防洪和供水安全,改善流域水环境的需要出发,以水利信息化推进流域的水利现代化,切实提高流域综合管理与治理水平,全面总结了太湖流域水利信息化建设取得的成效,提出了今后一段时期流域水利信息化工作的思路和重点。