Modelling utility-scale wind power plants. Part 1: Economics

As the worldwide use of wind turbine generators continues to increase in utility-scale applications, it will become increasingly important to assess the economic and reliability impact of these intermittent resources. Although the utility industry in the United States appears to be moving towards a restructured environment, basic economic and reliability issues will continue to be relevant to companies involved with electricity generation. This article is the first of two which address modelling approaches and results obtained in several case studies and research projects at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This first article addresses the basic economic issues associated with electricity production from several generators that include large-scale wind power plants. An important part of this discussion is the role of unit commitment and economic dispatch in production cost models. This paper includes overviews and comparisons of the prevalent production cost modelling methods, including several case studies applied to a variety of electric utilities. The second article discusses various methods of assessing capacity credit and results from several reliability-based studies performed at NREL. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于可靠性指标LOLP的风电场容量可信度的研究

介绍了基于可靠性指标LOLP的风电场容量可信度计算方法,同时给出了用于风电场可靠性计算的两种模型———发电机模型和负的负荷模型。利用不同的模型,结合实际算例,得出了一系列的计算结果,并对可能影响风电场容量可信度的一些相关因素作了灵敏度分析。     

风电场的容量可信度和可避免费用计算

建立了风电场发电可靠性模型,考虑了风的随机性,风电机组的强迫停运率,尾流效应以及不同风电场之间风的相关性。基于该模型和电力系统随机生产模拟,提出风电场容量可信度和可避免费用的计算方法,这对并网风电场的规划具有十分重要意义。     

Hourly wind power variations in the Nordic countries

Studies of the effects that wind power production imposes on the power system involve assessing the variations of large‐scale wind power production over the whole power system area. Large geographical spreading of wind power will reduce variability, increase predictability and decrease the occasions with near zero or peak output. In this article the patterns and statistical properties of large‐scale wind power production data are studied using the data sets available for the Nordic countries. The existing data from Denmark give the basis against which the data collected from the other Nordic countries are benchmarked. The main goal is to determine the statistical parameters describing the reduction of variability in the time series for the different areas in question. The hourly variations of large‐scale wind power stay 91%–94% of the time within ±5% of installed capacity in one country, and for the whole of the Nordic area 98% of the time. For the Nordic time series studied, the best indicator of reduced variability in the time series was the standard deviation of the hourly variations. According to the Danish data, it is reduced to less than 3% from a single site value of 10% of capacity. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconsidering the capacity credit of wind power: Application of cumulative prospect theory

The capacity credit is often erroneously considered to be a time-invariant quantity. A multi-year analysis of the incident wind profile of various potential wind sites uncovered that there exist large differences between annual capacity credit figures. The uniformity of these capacity credit figures is found to decrease with diminishing wind time series interval lengths. In recognition of the resulting uncertainty, decision maker risk propensity toward various capacity credit scenarios was investigated by adopting cumulative prospect theory. The methodology proposed in this paper is an extension of the effective load carrying capability method. It enables the quantitative analysis of the attitudes of decision makers with regard to deviations (gains and losses) from the forecasted capacity credit as a result of the uncertainty of the incident wind profile. Here, gains and losses may not be viewed by decision makers as having equal but opposite effects on the appeal of wind power production. Therefore, it is argued that a decision maker will not have a neutral risk propensity toward changes to the outcome of the capacity credit and will discount increases and decreases of the loss of load expectation according to a non-linear preference. In line with the well-known adagium that losses loom larger than gains the value of the capacity credit is found to be lower than its corresponding least squares forecast.     

Impact of hourly wind power variations on the system operation in the Nordic countries

The variations of wind power production will increase the flexibility needed in the system when significant amounts of load are covered by wind power. When studying the incremental effects that varying wind power production imposes on the power system, it is important to study the system as a whole: only the net imbalances have to be balanced by the system. Large geographical spreading of wind power will reduce variability, increase predictability and decrease the occasions with near zero or peak output. The goal of this work was to estimate the increase in hourly load‐following reserve requirements based on real wind power production and synchronous hourly load data in the four Nordic countries. The result is an increasing effect on reserve requirements with increasing wind power penetration. At a 10% penetration level (wind power production of gross demand) this is estimated as 1·5%–4% of installed wind capacity, taking into account that load variations are more predictable than wind power variations. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于多尾流模型的大型海上风电场扩容试验研究

目的  文章旨在研究大型海上风电场的最佳规划容量设置。 方法  针对某1 GW容量的单个规划场址,利用3种不同单机容量机型与3种海上风电场尾流模型,结合海上风资源图谱开展同场址逐步扩容至2 GW的一系列数值试验,并对全场发电量、尾流影响与边际效应进行分析。 结果  结果显示,随着机型的单机容量增大,扩容过程中全场实际发电量增幅越高,尾流损失增长越慢,兼顾机组安全性与投入产出比的有效扩容区间越大;但尾流模型选择可能影响有效扩容区间评估结果。 结论  文章研究表明,在满足现有用海指标、风电机组安全性与工程经济性等多重约束下,单个场址的最佳规划容量可以略高于现有基准值,在今后海上风电千万千瓦级基地规划中,应科学细分并合理设置单个场址的规划容量。     

Reliability analysis for wind turbines

Modern wind turbines are complex aerodynamic, mechanical and electrical machines incorporating sophisticated control systems. Wind turbines have been erected in increasing numbers in Europe, the USA and elsewhere. In Europe, Germany and Denmark have played a particularly prominent part in developing the technology, and both countries have installed large numbers of turbines. This article is concerned with understanding the historic reliability of modern wind turbines. The prime objective of the work is to extract information from existing data so that the reliability of large wind turbines can be predicted, particularly when installed offshore in the future. The article uses data collected from the Windstats survey to analyse the reliability of wind turbine components from historic German and Danish data. Windstats data have characteristics common to practical reliability surveys; for example, the number of failures is collected for each interval but the number of turbines varies in each interval. In this article, the authors use reliability analysis methods which are not only applicable to wind turbines but relate to any repairable system. Particular care is taken to compare results from the two populations to consider the validity of the data. The main purpose of the article is to discuss the practical methods of predicting large‐wind‐turbine reliability using grouped survey data from Windstats and to show how turbine design, turbine configuration, time, weather and possibly maintenance can affect the extracted results. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley &Sons, Ltd.     

世界风力发电现状与前景预测

全球可再生能源发电装机容量中风电占有压倒性优势,今后可望成为欧洲、亚洲、北美的主要电力来源.2011年中国以62GW的累计装机容量蝉联世界第一,按照我国“十二五”规划目标,预计到2015年风电装机容量将达到1×108kW,年发电量1900×108kW·h.GWEC和Greenpeace预测,今后20年风力发电将成为世界主力电源,2030年装机容量有可能达到23×108kW,可供应世界电力需求的22％.欧美正大力开发海上风电产业.欧洲是世界海上风电发展的先驱和产业中心,欧洲企业不仅拥有自己的核心技术,而且还向世界各地输出技术,今后欧洲海上风力发电将急速增长.美国采取与英国、德国等欧洲厂家相同的战略,大力发展海上风力发电.我国海上风电产业刚刚起步,预计2015年海上风电装机500×104kW.日本学者大岛教授推算了不同电源的发电成本:包括政府财政补贴,运行年限30年的核电站发电成本为12.06日元/(kW·h);按标准设备利用率,风力发电成本11.30日元/(kW·h),与核电相比已经有竞争力.假设风况好时设备利用率达到35％,发电成本为7.95日元/(kW·h),比核电低得多.     

Short‐term hydropower planning coordinated with wind power in areas with congestion problems

In this paper, a day‐ahead planning algorithm for a multi‐reservoir hydropower system coordinated with wind power is developed. Coordination applies to real situations, where wind power and hydropower are owned by different utilities, sharing the same transmission lines, although hydropower has priority for transmission capacity. Coordination is thus necessary to minimize wind energy curtailments during congestion situations. The planning algorithm accounts for the uncertainty of wind power forecast. Only planning for the spot market is considered. Once the production bid is placed on the market, it cannot be changed. The solution of the stochastic optimization problem should, therefore, fulfill the transmission constraints for all wind power production scenarios. An evaluation algorithm is also developed to quantify the impact from the coordinated planning in the long run. The developed planning algorithm and the evaluation algorithm are applied in a case study. The results are compared with uncoordinated operation. The results of the case study show that coordination with wind power brings additional income to the hydropower utility and leads to significant reduction of wind energy curtailments. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An up to date review of continuously variable speed wind turbines with mechatronic variable transmissions

As a promising and potential alternative to conventional fixed or variable speed wind turbines, continuously variable speed wind turbines (CVSWTs) with variable transmissions offer improved power efficiency and enhanced power control capabilities. The CVSWTs can be generally achieved by adapting mechatronic variable transmissions in the turbine drive train for continuously variable speed operations for wind turbines. Therefore, this paper serves to provide an up to date and exhaustive review of the CVSWTs with mechatronic variable transmissions such as mechanical variable transmission, electrical variable transmission, and power splitting transmission. In this paper, the analysis of CVSWTs with different mechatronic transmission topologies is performed regarding basic configurations, dynamic characteristics, control principles, and experimental or simulation results. Review results indicate the feasibility of applying CVSWTs with such mechatronic transmissions and highlight superiorities of the CVSWTs with power splitting transmission. The CVSWT with power splitting transmission will be particularly suitable for megawatt‐scale turbine systems and will hence increase the economic competitiveness of these turbines due to its large power capacity and high reliability. The directions or challenges for future investigations of CVSWTs with such mechatronic transmissions are also presented to foster in‐depth understanding of such CVSWTs and their control strategies.     

Characteristics of day‐ahead wind power forecast errors in Nordic countries and benefits of aggregation

The growing proportion of wind power in the Nordic power system increases day‐ahead forecasting errors, which have a link to the rising need for balancing power. However, having a large interconnected synchronous power system has its benefits, because it enables to aggregate imbalances from large geographical areas. In this paper, day‐ahead forecast errors from four Nordic countries and the impacts of wind power plant dispersion on forecast errors in areas of different sizes are studied. The forecast accuracy in different regions depends on the amount of the total wind power capacity in the region, how dispersed the capacity is and the forecast model applied. Further, there is a saturation effect involved, after which the reduction in the relative forecast error is not very large anymore. The correlations of day‐ahead forecast errors between areas decline rapidly when the distance increases. All error statistics show a strong decreasing trend up to the area sizes of 50,000 km². The average mean absolute error (MAE) in different regions is 5.7% of installed capacity. However, MAE of a smaller area can be over 8% of the capacity, but when all the Nordic regions are aggregated together, the capacity‐normalized MAE decreases to 2.5%. The average of the largest errors for different regions is 39.8% and when looking at the largest forecast errors for smaller areas, the largest errors can exceed 80% of the installed capacity, whereas at the Nordic level, the maximum forecast error is only 13.5% of the installed capacity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geographic aggregation of wind power—an optimization methodology for avoiding low outputs

This work investigates macro‐geographic allocation as a means to improve the performance of aggregated wind power output. The focus is on the spatial smoothing effect so as to avoid periods of low output. The work applies multi‐objective optimization, in which two measures of aggregated wind power output variation are minimized, whereas the average output is maximized. The results show that it is possible to allocate wind power so that the frequency of low outputs is substantially reduced, while maintaining the average output at around 30% of nameplate capacity, as compared with the corresponding output of 20% for the present allocation system. We conclude that in a future, fully electrically integrated Europe, geographic allocation can substantially reduce instances of low aggregate output, while impairing little on capacity factor and at the same time providing reduction in of short‐term jumps in output. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

考虑运行经济成本的风电场储能容量优化

储能技术作为一种新兴的调节风电功率输出方法,能够有效平抑风电出力波动.储能系统容量规划问题正成为重要的研究课题.以蓄电池作为研究对象,将放电深度和过放电现象对电池寿命的损伤折合为运行经济成本,同时考虑惩罚成本及固有成本,在确保风电出力尽可能接近期望出力的前提下,建立了以总经济成本最小为目标,以容量限制、功率限制及充放电次数限制为约束条件的储能容量优化模型,采用遗传算法求解目标函数.算例分析结果表明,该方法可以配置合理的储能容量,使得储能系统在平抑风电出力波动的同时使总经济成本降至最低,实现稳定性和经济性的相协调.     

Short‐term forecasting of categorical changes in wind power with Markov chain models

As penetrations of renewable wind energy increase, accurate short‐term predictions of wind power become crucial to utilities that must balance the load and supply of electricity. As storage of wind energy is not yet feasible on a large scale, the utility must integrate wind energy as soon as it is generated and decide at each balancing time‐step whether a change in conventional energy output is required. With high penetrations of wind energy, utilities must also plan for operating reserves to maintain stability of the electricity system when forecasts for renewable energy are inaccurate. Thus, a simple forecast of whether the wind power will increase, decrease or not change in the next time‐step will give utility operators an easy tool for assessing whether changes need to be made to the current generation mix. In this work, Markov chain models based on the change in power output at up to three locations or lags in time are presented that not only produce such an hourly forecast but also include a measure of the uncertainty of the forecast. Forecasts are greatly improved when knowledge of whether the maximum or minimum wind power is currently being produced and the intrahour trend in wind power are incorporated. These models are trained, tested and evaluated with a uniquely long set of 2 years of 10 min measurements at four meteorological stations in the Pacific Northwest and perform better than a benchmark state‐of‐the‐art wind speed forecasting model.Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

对我国风电发展战略的冷思考

我国风电发展迅速,计划2010年风电装机容量要达到3500×10^4kW,2020年达到1.5×10^8kW。据IEA预测,2030年世界能源供应仍以化石能源为主,其比重由2006年的80.8%下降到80.4%;2030年世界发电能源结构也以化石能源发电为主,其比重由2006年的74%下降到73%。中国到21世纪中叶传统化石能源仍将居绝对优势地位。因此在可再生能源和新能源的开发过程中,不要急于求成,片面追求能源和电源结构优化不可取。我国未来要依靠核电和新能源发电,但需要通过对其技术经济的进一步研究,才能确定主要靠核电还是风电、太阳能发电或生物质能发电。目前我国风电发展的主要问题是对风电的技术要求起点低,技术路线不对,从国外引进了落后的风电技术。为了我国风电的健康发展,必须加快风电合理利用的研究,包括风电储能和风电直接利用的研究。     

Interconnector capacity allocation in offshore grids with variable wind generation

Different capacity allocation regimes have a strong impact on the economics of offshore wind farms and on interconnectors in offshore grids. Integrating offshore generation in offshore grids is currently a subject of discussion for different regions, e.g. the North Sea. A novel question is how the interconnector capacity should be allocated for wind generation and for international power trading. The main difficulty arises from the stochastic nature of wind generation: in a case with radial connections to the national coast, the wind park owner has the possibility of aggregating the offshore wind park with onshore installations to reduce balancing demand. This is not necessarily the case if the interconnector capacity is sold through implicit or explicit auctions. Different design options are discussed and quantified for a number of examples based on Danish, Dutch, German and Norwegian power markets. It is concluded that treating offshore generation as a single price zone within the interconnector reduces the wind operator's ability to pool it with other generation. Furthermore, a single offshore price zone between two markets will always receive the lower spot market price of the neighbouring zones, although its generation flows only to the high‐price market. Granting the high‐price market income for wind generation as the opposite design option reduces congestion rents. Otherwise, compensation measures through support schemes or different balancing responsibilities may be discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adjustment of wind farm power output through flexible turbine operation using wind farm control

When the installed capacity of wind power becomes high, the power generated by wind farms can no longer simply be that dictated by the wind speed. With sufficiently high penetration, it will be necessary for wind farms to provide assistance with supply‐demand matching. The work presented here introduces a wind farm controller that regulates the power generated by the wind farm to match the grid requirements by causing the power generated by each turbine to be adjusted. Further, benefits include fast response to reach the wind farm power demanded, flexibility, little fluctuation in the wind farm power output and provision of synthetic inertia. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Redefinition power curve for more accurate performance assessment of wind farms

The lack of accurate methods for assessment of the productive capacity of wind power plants is becoming a bottleneck in an increasingly commercialized wind power industry. In this article the inherent components of performance assessment are identified and analysed and ways of minimizing uncertainties on the components are investigated. The main components are identified as ‘site calibration’, ‘wind turbine sensitivity to flow variables’, ‘plant blockage effects’ and ‘uncertainty analysis’. Site calibration is the action of estimating the flow variables at the wind turbine position from measurements of these quantities at another (reference) position. The purpose of sensitivity analysis is to clarify which and how flow variables influence power output. Plant blockage effects refer to the power plant's influence on the reference measurements of flow variables. Finally, the component uncertainties and in turn the integrated uncertainty on the average productive capacity of the wind power plant are investigated. It is found that uncertainties can be reduced (1) by including several more flow variables in addition to hub‐height wind speed, (2) by carrying out site calibration with utmost care and by inclusion of more variables, (3) by taking plant blockage into consideration, (4) by aiming at ‘plant‐average’ power instead of looking only at individual machines and, possibly, (5) by introduction of remote‐sensing anemometer techniques. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

陕西省金润河北镇风电场风能资源开发评估

对陕西省宝鸡市陇县金润河北镇风电场气象条件、风功率密度、平均风速、主导风向等风能参数进行分析评价。结果表明,测风塔100 m高度月平均风速、月平均风功率密度最大均出现在4月,最小均出现在8月;测风塔100 m高度主导风向为SSW(南西南),主要风能方向为SSW(南西南),风电场风功率密度等级为1级。风电场安装20台2500 kW的风电机组,装机容量50 MW,年设计发电量1.33485×108 kW·h,年出厂电量9.5426×107 kW·h。结果可为其他风电场选址和发电量估算提供参考。