Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of building performance using probabilistic climate projections: A UK case study

This study explores the uncertainties and sensitivities in the prediction of the thermal performance of buildings under climate change. This type of analysis is key to the assessment of the adaptability and resilience of buildings to changing climate conditions. The paper presents a comprehensive overview of the key methodological steps needed for a probabilistic prediction of building performance in the long term future (50 to 80 years). The approach propagates uncertainties in climate change predictions as well as the uncertainties related to interventions in building fabric and systems.A case study focussing on an air-conditioned university building at the campus of the authors is presented in order to demonstrate the methodology. This employs the most recent probabilistic climate change projections for the United Kingdom (UKCP09 dataset) and takes into account facility management uncertainties when exploring uncertainties in the prediction of heating energy, cooling energy, and carbon emissions.     

Towards probabilistic performance metrics for climate change impact studies

This paper explores the current state-of-the-art in performance indicators and use of probabilistic approaches used in climate change impact studies. It presents a critical review of recent publications in this field, focussing on (1) metrics for energy use for heating and cooling, emissions, overheating and high-level performance aspects, and (2) uptake of uncertainty and risk analysis. This is followed by a case study, which is used to explore some of the contextual issues around the broader uptake of climate change impact studies in practice. The work concludes that probabilistic predictions of the impact of climate change are feasible, but only based on strict and explicitly stated assumptions.     

Preparation of future weather data to study the impact of climate change on buildings

The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involving a large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of climate change on the built environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are often necessary. Since most of building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical. In this paper, the methods used to prepare future weather data for the study of the impact of climate change are reviewed. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. The inherent relationship between these methods is also illustrated. Based on these discussions and the analysis of Australian historic climatic data, an effective framework and procedure to generate future hourly weather data is presented. It is shown that this method is not only able to deal with different levels of available information regarding the climate change, but also can retain the key characters of a “typical” year weather data for a desired period.     

Probabilistic climate projections with dynamic building simulation: Predicting overheating in dwellings

This study, as part of the Low Carbon Futures project, proposes a methodology to incorporate probabilistic climate projections into dynamic building simulation analyses of overheating in dwellings. Using a large climate projection database, suitable building software and statistical techniques (focussing on principal component analysis), output is presented that demonstrates the future overheating risk of a building in the form of a probability curve. Such output could be used by building engineers and architects to design a building to an acceptable future overheating risk level, i.e. providing evidence that the building, with specific adaptation measures to prevent overheating, should achieve thermal comfort for the majority of future climate projections. This methodology is overviewed and the use of the algorithm proposed in relation to existing building practices. While the methodology is being applied to a range of buildings and scenarios, this study concentrates on night-time overheating in UK dwellings with simple and achievable adaptation measures investigated.     

A primer on the building economics of climate change

Climate change will entail new conditions for the construction industry. Knowledge about the implications of climate change on the built environment will be of the utmost importance to the industry in years to come. A building is a ‘long lasting’ durable asset that is changed over time due to exogenously imposed strains and by actions. The built environment has an expected lifetime varying from 60 to more than 100 years. Hence, the building economics of climate change should be treated within a dynamic analytical framework that explicitly allows for changes in the information sets over time. The building stock of the future consists of the building stock of today and of new construction. In the future, parts of the present building stock will be adapted to changes in the environment, while some parts will be kept as they are. Analysis of how building stock is affected by future climate change should handle this diversity. This can be done through the use of a putty-clay model. Uncertainty of what kind of climate regimes will prevail in the future enhances the profitability of actions that increase future flexibility. Hence, the real option approach to building economics is utilized.     

Developing future hourly weather files for studying the impact of climate change on building energy performance in Hong Kong

The concern on climate change leads to growing demand for minimization of energy use. As building is one of the largest energy consuming sectors, it is essential to study the impact of climate change on building energy performance. In this regard, building energy simulation software is a useful tool. A set of appropriate typical weather files is one of the key factors towards successful building energy simulation. This paper reports the work of developing a set of weather data files for subtropical Hong Kong, taking into the effect of future climate change. Projected monthly mean climate changes from a selected General Circulation Model for three future periods under two emission scenarios were integrated into an existing typical meteorological year weather file by a morphing method. Through this work, six sets of future weather files for subtropical Hong Kong were produced. A typical office building and a residential flat were modeled using building simulation program EnergyPlus. Hourly building energy simulations were carried out. The simulated results indicate that there will be substantial increase in A/C energy consumption under the impact of future climate change, ranging from 2.6% to 14.3% and from 3.7% to 24% for office building and residential flat, respectively.     

Assessing the risk of climate change for buildings: A comparison between multi-year and probabilistic reference year simulations

Given a changing climate, there is a need to provide data for future years so that practicing engineers can investigate the impact of climate change on particular designs and examine any risk the client might be exposed to. In addition, such files are of use to building scientists in developing generic solutions to problems such as elevated internal temperatures and poor thermal comfort. With the release of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) [1], and the publication of a methodology for the creation of probabilistic future reference years using the UKCP09 weather generator [2], it is possible to model future building performance. However, the collapse of the distribution of possibilities inherent in the UKCP09 method into a single reference year or a small number of reference years, potentially means the loss of most of the information about the potential range of the response of the building and of the risk occupants might be subject to. In this paper we model for the first time the internal conditions and energy use of a building with all 3000 example years produced by the UKCP09 weather generator in an attempt to study the full range of response and risk. The resultant histograms and cumulative distribution functions are then used to examine whether single reference years can be used to answer questions about response and risk under a changing climate, or whether a more probabilistic approach is unavoidable.     

Floods,cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh: a reality check

This paper seeks to correct prevailing assumptions about Bangladesh’s susceptibility to floods, tropical cyclones and drought, and the extent to which global warming has already affected the country’s climate. Analysis of 50 years of the country’s climate and hydrological data showed no evidence that rainfall amounts have changed or that floods, tropical cyclones and droughts have increased in frequency or severity. The extent to which global warming might have affected temperatures is made uncertain by the probably greater impact on temperatures at recording stations of widespread changes in land use and the heat-island effect resulting from urban expansion around the stations. The paper reviews both the diversity of environments in Bangladesh’s coastal area exposed to sea-level rise and the possible mitigation methods. Two major conclusions are drawn: that population increase and rapid urbanisation pose more serious immediate problems for development planning in Bangladesh than climate change; and that education at all levels needs to include practical field studies that could provide all students with a better understanding of the country’s diverse and locally complex environments.     

The role of learning and knowledge in adapting to climate change: a case study of Norwegian municipalities

Coping with climate change includes the role of learning and knowledge. Taking a process perspective, this article analyses how municipal officers in the Oslo region of Norway are acquiring knowledge and building competence for adapting to climate change. The article illustrates the interaction between elements of experiential learning, transformative learning and social learning as bases for adapting to emerging climate changes; each being necessary and none alone being sufficient. Their importance differs according to how profound the changes in knowledge and competence are. Experiential learning and transformative learning are stronger under single-loop learning whereas social learning might emerge as more important under triple-loop learning. Because of the uncertainties of climate change, the central government might be wise not to issue detailed regulations for adaptation by municipalities.     

Forecasting the local and global socio-economic impact of climate change in the Boreal and Arctic regions of Siberia

Climate change in Siberia, though local, is a problem of global concern. This article examines some of the negative consequences of climate change in the Boreal and Arctic regions of Siberia. Forecasting the local and global socio-economic impacts of climate change in this region includes assessing the potential for adaptation. Forecasting and solving climate-related issues are possible only on the basis of a multidisciplinary approach, consistently implemented at universities. The authors analyse a set of economic problems in the context of climate change: the need to evaluate natural and climate capital, technological demands, adapting technical systems to changes in the climate and increasing the quality of life. They conclude that there is an absence of systemic climate policy in Russia and emphasise the need for consistent accounting of climate-related expenses and benefits in subsurface resource companies carrying out long-term investment projects in the region. The article lays out directions for socio-economic policies that adequately address climate-related challenges.     

Estimating the impacts of climate change and urbanization on building performance

Over the past 15 years, much scientific work has been published on the potential human impacts on climates. For their Third Assessment Report in 2001, the United Nations International Programme on Climate Change developed a set of economic development scenarios, which were then run with the four major general circulation models (GCM) to estimate the anthropogenesis-forced climate change. These GCMs produce worldwide grids of predicted monthly temperature, cloud, and precipitation deviations from the period 1961–1990. As this period is the same used for several major typical meteorological year data sets, these typical data sets can be used as a starting point for modifying weather files to represent predicted climate change. Over the past 50 years, studies of urban heat islands (UHI) or urbanization have provided detailed measurements of the diurnal and seasonal patterns and differences between urban and rural climatic conditions. While heat islands have been shown to be a function of both population and microclimatic and site conditions, they can be generalized into a predictable diurnal and seasonal pattern. Although the scientific literature is full of studies looking at the impact of climate change driven by human activity, there is very little research on the impact of climate change or urban heat islands on building operation and performance across the world. This article presents the methodology used to create weather files which represent climate change scenarios in 2100 and heat island impacts today. For this study, typical and extreme meteorological weather data were created for 25 locations (20 climate regions) to represent a range of predicted climate change and heat island scenarios for building simulation. Then prototypical small office buildings were created to represent typical, good, and low-energy practices around the world. The simulation results for these prototype buildings provide a snapshot view of the potential impacts of the set of climate scenarios on building performance. This includes location-specific building response, such as fuel swapping as heating and cooling ratios change, impacts on environmental emissions, impacts on equipment use and longevity comfort issues, and how low-energy building design incorporating renewables can significantly mitigate any potential climate variation. In this article, examples of how heat island and climate change scenarios affect diurnal patterns are presented as well as the annual energy performance impacts for three of the 25 locations. In cold climates, the net change to annual energy use due to climate change will be positive – reducing energy use on the order of 10% or more. For tropical climates, buildings will see an increase in overall energy use due to climate change, with some months increasing by more than 20% from current conditions. Temperate, mid-latitude climates will see the largest change but it will be a swapping from heating to cooling, including a significant reduction of 25% or more in heating energy and up to 15% increase in cooling energy. Buildings which are built to current standards such as ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-2004 will still see significant increases in energy demand over the twenty-first century. Low-energy buildings designed to minimize energy use will be the least affected, with impacts in the range of 5–10%. Unless the way buildings are designed, built, and operated changes significantly over the next decades, buildings will see substantial operating cost increases and possible disruptions in an already strained energy supply system.     

Development and visualization of time-based building energy performance metrics

ABSTRACT

In the face of climate change, and as building codes and standards evolve to promote increased building energy efficiency and reduced carbon footprints, it is also important to ensure that buildings, especially housing, can withstand prolonged power outages during extended periods of both extreme cold and hot weather to provide habitable shelter passively. This paper examines an approach for visualizing the impact of robust passive measures in multi-unit residential buildings by examining the ‘weakest links in the chain’ – the suites most susceptible to underperforming – in three climatic zones: Toronto and Vancouver, Canada; and Adana, Turkey. Two time-based and thermal comfort-related metrics are explored: thermal autonomy, a measure of what fraction of the time a building can deliver comfort without supplemental active systems; and passive survivability (also termed thermal resilience), a measure of the length of time a building remains habitable following the onset of a prolonged power outage during a period of extended extreme weather. A visualization of the results of parametric building energy simulations helps guide the selection of passive architectural parameters at the early stages of design to promote enhanced environmental performance and resilience.     

Identification of key factors for uncertainty in the prediction of the thermal performance of an office building under climate change

There is growing concern about the potential impact of climate change on the thermal performance of buildings. Building simulation is well-suited to predict the behaviour of buildings in the future, and to quantify the risks for prime building functions like occupant productivity, occupant health, or energy use. However, on the time scales that are involved with climate change, different factors introduce uncertainties into the predictions: apart from uncertainties in the climate conditions forecast, factors like change of use, trends in electronic equipment and lighting, as well as building refurbishment / renovation and HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) system upgrades need to be taken into account. This article presents the application of two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis to an EnergyPlus model of an office building to identify the key factors for uncertainty in the prediction of overheating and energy use for the time horizons of 2020, 2050 and 2080. The office has mixed-mode ventilation and indirect evaporative cooling, and is studied using the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. The results show that regarding the uncertainty in predicted heating energy, the dominant input factors are infiltration, lighting gain and equipment gain. For cooling energy and overheating the dominant factors for 2020 and 2050 are lighting gain and equipment gain, but with climate prediction becoming the one dominant factor for 2080. These factors will be the subject of further research by means of expert panel sessions, which will be used to gain a higher resolution of critical building simulation input.     

Building a better future: An exploration of beliefs about climate change and perceived need for adaptation within the building industry

The present research explored beliefs about climate change among an important yet relatively understudied population: representatives of the building industry. We also assessed the perceived adequacy of current climate-related actions within the industry and the perceived need for developing new practices. The results of a survey administered within a large engineering firm suggest a fairly high level of concern about climate issues within this sector: participants perceived climate change to be an important issue, current practices to be inadequate, and a need to develop new ways of addressing climate change. Despite this, there was notable and consequential variability in how participants thought about climate change. Higher levels of seniority were associated with greater satisfaction with current practices, and the belief that climate change was a natural rather than man-made phenomena was associated with a reduced support for the idea that changes to current practices were necessary. In addition, when thinking about climate relevant actions (whether current practices or the alternatives) participants focussed almost exclusively on mitigation rather than adaptation. The implications of these patterns for innovation around climate change within the building industry are discussed.     

The role of adaptive thermal comfort in the prediction of the thermal performance of a modern mixed-mode office building in the UK under climate change

Climate change is becoming a serious issue for the construction industry, since the time scales at which climate change takes place can be expected to show a true impact on the thermal performance of buildings and HVAC systems. In predicting this future building performance by means of building simulation, the underlying assumptions regarding thermal comfort conditions and the related heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) control set points become important. This article studies the thermal performance of a reference office building with mixed-mode ventilation in the UK, using static and adaptive thermal approaches, for a series of time horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080). Results demonstrate the importance of the implementation of adaptive thermal comfort models, and underpin the case for its use in climate change impact studies. Adaptive thermal comfort can also be used by building designers to make buildings more resilient towards change.     

Subjective perceptions,symptom intensity and performance: a comparison of two independent studies,both changing similarly the pollution load in an office

The present paper shows that introducing or removing the same pollution source in an office in two independent investigations, one in Denmark and one in Sweden, using similar experimental methodology, resulted in similar and repeatable effects on subjective assessments of perceived air quality, intensity of sick building syndrome symptoms and performance of office work. Removing the pollution source improved the perceived air quality, decreased the perceived dryness of air and the severity of headaches, and increased typing performance. These effects were observed separately in each experiment and were all significant (P < or = 0.05) after combining the data from both studies, indicating the advantages of pollution source strength control for health, comfort, and productivity.     

A critical review of Hong Kong’s proposed climate change strategy and action agenda

Climate change was not on the policy agenda in Hong Kong before 2007. In 2010, a consultation document, Hong Kong’s Climate Change Strategy and Action Agenda, was published proposing a voluntary carbon intensity reduction target of 50–60% by 2020 (from the 2005 level). This review attempts to understand why there was a sudden shift to climate issues and whether the proposed strategy, actions and targets are appropriate to the climate change challenges faced by the city. Through synthesizing existing literature on climate change at the city level, a framework outlining possible actions at the strategic, knowledge accumulation and implementation phases is developed to position Hong Kong’s experience. It is found that Hong Kong’s move towards climate change is strongly affected by China’s efforts. The city is facing some real climate change threats. However, while the carbon intensity reduction target looks impressive, it is actually too modest for the city’s developed economy. The city needs to reflect critically on its economics-first strategy and undertake more refined vulnerability studies and risk assessments to identify spatially and sectorally-specific adaptation measures. To be a responsible global citizen and to pursue sustainable development, Hong Kong needs more concerted and comprehensive efforts to combat climate change.