基于数据过采样和集成学习的软件缺陷数目预测方法

预测软件缺陷的数目有助于软件测试人员更多地关注缺陷数量多的模块,从而合理地分配有限的测试资源。针对软件缺陷数据集不平衡的问题,提出了一种基于数据过采样和集成学习的软件缺陷数目预测方法——SMOTENDEL。首先,对原始软件缺陷数据集进行n次过采样,得到n个平衡的数据集;然后基于这n个平衡的数据集利用回归算法训练出n个个体软件缺陷数目预测模型;最后对这n个个体模型进行结合得到一个组合软件缺陷数目预测模型,利用该组合预测模型对新的软件模块的缺陷数目进行预测。实验结果表明SMOTENDEL相比原始的预测方法在性能上有较大提升,当分别利用决策树回归（DTR）、贝叶斯岭回归（BRR）和线性回归（LR）作为个体预测模型时,提升率分别为7.68%、3.31%和3.38%。     

Software defect prediction using cost-sensitive neural network

The software development life cycle generally includes analysis, design, implementation, test and release phases. The testing phase should be operated effectively in order to release bug-free software to end users. In the last two decades, academicians have taken an increasing interest in the software defect prediction problem, several machine learning techniques have been applied for more robust prediction. A different classification approach for this problem is proposed in this paper. A combination of traditional Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and the novel Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm are used in this study. Training the neural network is performed by ABC algorithm in order to find optimal weights. The False Positive Rate (FPR) and False Negative Rate (FNR) multiplied by parametric cost coefficients are the optimization task of the ABC algorithm. Software defect data in nature have a class imbalance because of the skewed distribution of defective and non-defective modules, so that conventional error functions of the neural network produce unbalanced FPR and FNR results. The proposed approach was applied to five publicly available datasets from the NASA Metrics Data Program repository. Accuracy, probability of detection, probability of false alarm, balance, Area Under Curve (AUC), and Normalized Expected Cost of Misclassification (NECM) are the main performance indicators of our classification approach. In order to prevent random results, the dataset was shuffled and the algorithm was executed 10 times with the use of n-fold cross-validation in each iteration. Our experimental results showed that a cost-sensitive neural network can be created successfully by using the ABC optimization algorithm for the purpose of software defect prediction.     

An empirical study on software defect prediction with a simplified metric set

ContextSoftware defect prediction plays a crucial role in estimating the most defect-prone components of software, and a large number of studies have pursued improving prediction accuracy within a project or across projects. However, the rules for making an appropriate decision between within- and cross-project defect prediction when available historical data are insufficient remain unclear.ObjectiveThe objective of this work is to validate the feasibility of the predictor built with a simplified metric set for software defect prediction in different scenarios, and to investigate practical guidelines for the choice of training data, classifier and metric subset of a given project.MethodFirst, based on six typical classifiers, three types of predictors using the size of software metric set were constructed in three scenarios. Then, we validated the acceptable performance of the predictor based on Top-k metrics in terms of statistical methods. Finally, we attempted to minimize the Top-k metric subset by removing redundant metrics, and we tested the stability of such a minimum metric subset with one-way ANOVA tests.ResultsThe study has been conducted on 34 releases of 10 open-source projects available at the PROMISE repository. The findings indicate that the predictors built with either Top-k metrics or the minimum metric subset can provide an acceptable result compared with benchmark predictors. The guideline for choosing a suitable simplified metric set in different scenarios is presented in Table 12.ConclusionThe experimental results indicate that (1) the choice of training data for defect prediction should depend on the specific requirement of accuracy; (2) the predictor built with a simplified metric set works well and is very useful in case limited resources are supplied; (3) simple classifiers (e.g., Naïve Bayes) also tend to perform well when using a simplified metric set for defect prediction; and (4) in several cases, the minimum metric subset can be identified to facilitate the procedure of general defect prediction with acceptable loss of prediction precision in practice.     

An improved boosting based on feature selection for corporate bankruptcy prediction

With the recent financial crisis and European debt crisis, corporate bankruptcy prediction has become an increasingly important issue for financial institutions. Many statistical and intelligent methods have been proposed, however, there is no overall best method has been used in predicting corporate bankruptcy. Recent studies suggest ensemble learning methods may have potential applicability in corporate bankruptcy prediction. In this paper, a new and improved Boosting, FS-Boosting, is proposed to predict corporate bankruptcy. Through injecting feature selection strategy into Boosting, FS-Booting can get better performance as base learners in FS-Boosting could get more accuracy and diversity. For the testing and illustration purposes, two real world bankruptcy datasets were selected to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of FS-Boosting. Experimental results reveal that FS-Boosting could be used as an alternative method for the corporate bankruptcy prediction.     

软件缺陷集成预测模型研究

利用单一分类器构造的缺陷预测模型已经遇到了性能瓶颈, 而集成分类器相比单一分类器往往具有显著的性能优势。以构造高效的集成缺陷预测模型为出发点, 比较了七种不同类型集成分类器的算法和特点。在14个基准数据集上的实验显示, 部分集成预测模型的性能优于基于朴素贝叶斯的单一预测模型。其中, 基于投票的集成分类框架具有最优的预测性能以及统计学意义上的性能优势显著性, 随机森林算法次之。Stacking集成框架也具有较强的泛化能力。     

Transfer learning for cross-company software defect prediction

Context

Software defect prediction studies usually built models using within-company data, but very few focused on the prediction models trained with cross-company data. It is difficult to employ these models which are built on the within-company data in practice, because of the lack of these local data repositories. Recently, transfer learning has attracted more and more attention for building classifier in target domain using the data from related source domain. It is very useful in cases when distributions of training and test instances differ, but is it appropriate for cross-company software defect prediction?

Objective

In this paper, we consider the cross-company defect prediction scenario where source and target data are drawn from different companies. In order to harness cross company data, we try to exploit the transfer learning method to build faster and highly effective prediction model.

Method

Unlike the prior works selecting training data which are similar from the test data, we proposed a novel algorithm called Transfer Naive Bayes (TNB), by using the information of all the proper features in training data. Our solution estimates the distribution of the test data, and transfers cross-company data information into the weights of the training data. On these weighted data, the defect prediction model is built.

Results

This article presents a theoretical analysis for the comparative methods, and shows the experiment results on the data sets from different organizations. It indicates that TNB is more accurate in terms of AUC (The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve), within less runtime than the state of the art methods.

Conclusion

It is concluded that when there are too few local training data to train good classifiers, the useful knowledge from different-distribution training data on feature level may help. We are optimistic that our transfer learning method can guide optimal resource allocation strategies, which may reduce software testing cost and increase effectiveness of software testing process.     

A defect prediction method for software versioning

New methodologies and tools have gradually made the life cycle for software development more human-independent. Much of the research in this field focuses on defect reduction, defect identification and defect prediction. Defect prediction is a relatively new research area that involves using various methods from artificial intelligence to data mining. Identifying and locating defects in software projects is a difficult task. Measuring software in a continuous and disciplined manner provides many advantages such as the accurate estimation of project costs and schedules as well as improving product and process qualities. This study aims to propose a model to predict the number of defects in the new version of a software product with respect to the previous stable version. The new version may contain changes related to a new feature or a modification in the algorithm or bug fixes. Our proposed model aims to predict the new defects introduced into the new version by analyzing the types of changes in an objective and formal manner as well as considering the lines of code (LOC) change. Defect predictors are helpful tools for both project managers and developers. Accurate predictors may help reducing test times and guide developers towards implementing higher quality codes. Our proposed model can aid software engineers in determining the stability of software before it goes on production. Furthermore, such a model may provide useful insight for understanding the effects of a feature, bug fix or change in the process of defect detection.

基于Box-Cox转换的集成跨项目软件缺陷预测方法

软件缺陷预测通过预先识别出被测项目内的潜在缺陷程序模块,可以优化测试资源的分配并提高软件产品的质量。论文对跨项目缺陷预测问题展开了深入研究,在源项目实例选择时,考虑了三种不同的实例相似度计算方法,并发现这些方法的缺陷预测结果存在多样性,因此提出了一种基于Box-Cox转换的集成跨项目软件缺陷预测方法BCEL,具体来说,首先基于不同的实例相似度计算方法,从候选集中选出不同的训练集,随后针对这些数据集,进行针对性的Box-Cox转化,并借助特定分类方法构造出不同的基分类器,最后将这三个基分类器进行有效集成。基于实际项目的数据集,验证了BCEL方法的有效性,并深入分析了BCEL方法内的影响因素对缺陷预测性能的影响。     

基于CS-ANN的软件缺陷预测模型研究

为了提高软件缺陷预测的准确率,利用布谷鸟搜索算法(Cuckoo Search,CS)的寻优能力和人工神经网络算法（Artificial Neural Network,ANN）的非线性计算能力,提出了基于CS-ANN的软件缺陷预测方法。此方法首先使用基于关联规则的特征选择算法降低数据的维度,去除了噪声属性;利用布谷鸟搜索算法寻找神经网络算法的权值,然后使用权值和神经网络算法构建出预测模型;最后使用此模型完成缺陷预测。使用公开的NASA数据集进行仿真实验,结果表明该模型降低了误报率并提高了预测的准确率,综合评价指标AUC（area under the ROC curve）、F1值和G-mean都优于现有模型。     

利用集成分类器处理链路预测中的分类不平衡问题*

对于现实的复杂网络而言,有连边的节点对数目通常远小于无连边的节点对数目,在链路预测时,不同类别的样本数量不平衡会导致预测的分类结果与真实情况有较大的偏差。针对此问题,本文提出更优的链路预测算法,先对网络拓扑信息进行特征提取,再设计出一种集成分类器对数据样本进行平衡处理,然后基于网络的拓扑信息改进了分类器的集成规则,最后将训练出的集成分类器同现有的4个针对不平衡分类的链路预测学习算法进行对比研究。通过对4个不同规模的时序网络进行链路预测,结果表明：本文的链路预测学习算法具有更高的召回率,同时也保证了预测结果的准确性,从而更好地解决了链路预测中因类别不平衡导致的误分类问题。     

基于图卷积集成的网络表示学习

针对现有网络表示学习方法泛化能力较弱等问题,提出了将stacking集成思想应用于网络表示学习的方法,旨在提升网络表示性能。首先,将3个经典的浅层网络表示学习方法DeepWalk、Node2Vec、Line作为并列的初级学习器,训练得到三部分的节点嵌入拼接后作为新数据集;然后,选择图卷积网络(graph convolutional network, GCN)作为次级学习器对新数据集和网络结构进行stacking集成得到最终的节点嵌入,GCN处理半监督分类问题有很好的效果,因为网络表示学习具有无监督性,所以利用网络的一阶邻近性设计损失函数;最后,设计评价指标分别评价初级学习器和集成后的节点嵌入。实验表明,选用GCN集成的效果良好,各评价指标平均提升了1.47~2.97倍。     

基于深度自编码网络的软件缺陷预测方法

软件缺陷预测是提升软件质量的有效方法,而软件缺陷预测方法的预测效果与数据集自身的特点有着密切的相关性。针对软件缺陷预测中数据集特征信息冗余、维度过大的问题,结合深度学习对数据特征强大的学习能力,提出了一种基于深度自编码网络的软件缺陷预测方法。该方法首先使用一种基于无监督学习的采样方法对6个开源项目数据集进行采样,解决了数据集中类不平衡问题;然后训练出一个深度自编码网络模型。该模型能对数据集进行特征降维,模型的最后使用了三种分类器进行连接,该模型使用降维后的训练集训练分类器,最后用测试集进行预测。实验结果表明,该方法在维数较大、特征信息冗余的数据集上的预测性能要优于基准的软件缺陷预测模型和基于现有的特征提取方法的软件缺陷预测模型,并且适用于不同分类算法。     

A feature dependent Naive Bayes approach and its application to the software defect prediction problem

Naive Bayes is one of the most widely used algorithms in classification problems because of its simplicity, effectiveness, and robustness. It is suitable for many learning scenarios, such as image classification, fraud detection, web mining, and text classification. Naive Bayes is a probabilistic approach based on assumptions that features are independent of each other and that their weights are equally important. However, in practice, features may be interrelated. In that case, such assumptions may cause a dramatic decrease in performance. In this study, by following preprocessing steps, a Feature Dependent Naive Bayes (FDNB) classification method is proposed. Features are included for calculation as pairs to create dependence between one another. This method was applied to the software defect prediction problem and experiments were carried out using widely recognized NASA PROMISE data sets. The obtained results show that this new method is more successful than the standard Naive Bayes approach and that it has a competitive performance with other feature-weighting techniques. A further aim of this study is to demonstrate that to be reliable, a learning model must be constructed by using only training data, as otherwise misleading results arise from the use of the entire data set.     

基于集成学习的动态链接预测方法

链接预测是社会网络分析领域的关键问题。传统的链接预测方法大多针对社会网络的静态结构预测隐含的链接或者将来可能产生的链接,而忽视了网络在动态演变过程中的潜在信息。为了能更好地利用网络演变的动态信息,从而取得更好的链接预测效果,提出了一种基于网络结构演变规律的链接预测方法。该方法使用机器学习技术对网络结构特征的动态变化信息进行训练,学习每种结构特征的变化并得到一个分类器,为每个分类器加权得到最终集成的结果。在三个现实的合著者网络数据集上的实验结果表明,该方法的性能要高于静态链接预测方法和一个相关的动态链接预测方法。这说明,网络结构演变信息有助于提高链接预测效果。此外,实验还表明,不同的结构特征对网络动态变化的刻画能力也有所差别。     

基于进化集成学习的用户购买意向预测

在电子商务时代背景下,精准预测用户的购买意向已经成为提高销售效率和优化客户体验的关键因素。针对传统集成策略在模型设计阶段往往受人为因素限制的问题,构建了一种自适应进化集成学习模型用于预测用户的购买意向。该模型能够自适应地选择最优基学习器和元学习器,并融合基学习器的预测信息和特征间的差异性扩展特征维度,从而提高预测的准确性。此外,为进一步优化模型的预测效果,设计了一种二元自适应差分进化算法进行特征选择,旨在筛选出对预测结果有显著影响的特征。研究结果表明,与传统优化算法相比,二元自适应差分进化算法在全局搜索和特征选择方面表现优异。相较于六种常见的集成模型和DeepForest模型,所构建的进化集成模型在AUC值上分别提高了2.76%和2.72%,并且能够缓解数据不平衡所带来的影响。     

A novel ensemble construction method for multi-view data using random cross-view correlation between within-class examples

Correlated information between multiple views can provide useful information for building robust classifiers. One way to extract correlated features from different views is using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). However, CCA is an unsupervised method and can not preserve discriminant information in feature extraction. In this paper, we first incorporate discriminant information into CCA by using random cross-view correlations between within-class examples. Because of the random property, we can construct a lot of feature extractors based on CCA and random correlation. So furthermore, we fuse those feature extractors and propose a novel method called random correlation ensemble (RCE) for multi-view ensemble learning. We compare RCE with existing multi-view feature extraction methods including CCA and discriminant CCA (DCCA) which use all cross-view correlations between within-class examples, as well as the trivial ensembles of CCA and DCCA which adopt standard bagging and boosting strategies for ensemble learning. Experimental results on several multi-view data sets validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

软件缺陷分析统计系统的研究

在软件的开发过程中，不可避免地会发现一些缺陷，该文探讨了软件缺陷分析的几种方法，并设计和实现了一个基于Trackrecord的软件缺陷分析统计系统。主要提出了软件缺陷度量应用模型的解决方案，结合理论和实践选取了对软件缺陷数据分析统计的方法，并研究了该系统的体系结构。最后，得到了一个完整的系统解决方案。     

基于采样的半监督支持向量机软件缺陷预测方法

软件缺陷预测有助于提高软件开发质量,保证测试资源有效分配。针对软件缺陷预测研究中类标签数据难以获取和类不平衡分布问题,提出基于采样的半监督支持向量机预测模型。该模型采用无监督的采样技术,确保带标签样本数据中缺陷样本数量不会过低,使用半监督支持向量机方法,在少量带标签样本数据基础上利用无标签数据信息构建预测模型;使用公开的NASA软件缺陷预测数据集进行仿真实验。实验结果表明提出的方法与现有半监督方法相比,在综合评价指标[F]值和召回率上均优于现有方法;与有监督方法相比,能在学习样本较少的情况下取得相当的预测性能。     

New hybrid data mining model for credit scoring based on feature selection algorithm and ensemble classifiers

The aim of this paper is to propose a new hybrid data mining model based on combination of various feature selection and ensemble learning classification algorithms, in order to support decision making process. The model is built through several stages. In the first stage, initial dataset is preprocessed and apart of applying different preprocessing techniques, we paid a great attention to the feature selection. Five different feature selection algorithms were applied and their results, based on ROC and accuracy measures of logistic regression algorithm, were combined based on different voting types. We also proposed a new voting method, called if_any, that outperformed all other voting methods, as well as a single feature selection algorithm's results. In the next stage, a four different classification algorithms, including generalized linear model, support vector machine, naive Bayes and decision tree, were performed based on dataset obtained in the feature selection process. These classifiers were combined in eight different ensemble models using soft voting method. Using the real dataset, the experimental results show that hybrid model that is based on features selected by if_any voting method and ensemble GLM + DT model performs the highest performance and outperforms all other ensemble and single classifier models.     

Effective ensemble learning approach for SST field prediction using attention-based PredRNN

Accurate prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) is extremely important for forecasting oceanic environmental events and for ocean studies. However, the existing SST prediction methods do not consider the seasonal periodicity and abnormal fluctuation characteristics of SST or the importance of historical SST data from different times; thus, these methods suffer from low prediction accuracy. To solve this problem, we comprehensively consider the effects of seasonal periodicity and abnormal fluctuation characteristics of SST data, as well as the influence of historical data in different periods, on prediction accuracy. We propose a novel ensemble learning approach that combines the Predictive Recurrent Neural Network(PredRNN) network and an attention mechanism for effective SST field prediction. In this approach, the XGBoost model is used to learn the long-period fluctuation law of SST and to extract seasonal periodic features from SST data. The exponential smoothing method is used to mitigate the impact of severely abnormal SST fluctuations and extract the a priori features of SST data. The outputs of the two aforementioned models and the original SST data are stacked and used as inputs for the next model, the PredRNN network. PredRNN is the most recently developed spatiotemporal deep learning network, which simulates both spatial and temporal representations and is capable of transferring memory across layers and time steps. Therefore, we used it to extract the spatiotemporal correlations of SST data and predict future SSTs. Finally, an attention mechanism is added to capture the importance of different historical SST data, weigh the output of each step of the PredRNN network, and improve the prediction accuracy. The experimental results on two ocean datasets confirm that the proposed approach achieves higher training efficiency and prediction accuracy than the existing SST field prediction approaches do.