基于MRIO模型的中国区域间贸易隐含碳研究

本文采用了多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,将中国划分为八大区域,使用中国区域投入产出表数据,测算并分析了2007年中国区域间贸易隐含碳,从区域层面提出了具体的减排措施。研究结果表明,中部区域和北部沿海区域的区域间贸易隐含碳总量较大;东部沿海、南部沿海、西南区域是区域间贸易隐含碳主要的净进口区域;京津、东北和西北区域是区域间贸易隐含碳主要的净出口区域。与相关文献1997年区域间贸易隐含碳分布情况相比,2007年区域间贸易隐含碳分布产生趋势性变化。综上所述,本文认为应削减中国区域间贸易隐含碳净出口区域的CO_2排放,优化中国区域间贸易隐含碳净进口区域的产业结构,完善我国碳排放权交易市场。     

河南省省际贸易中隐含能源和隐含碳排放量的分析

河南省是我国的工业大省,随着省际贸易的快速发展,在销往省外商品的生产过程中,大量的碳排放留在省内,造成了严重的环境污染。本文首先运用投入产出模型,分行业计算了河南省2007年和2010年省际贸易中的隐含能源,分析得出,河南省从2007年到2010年间是隐含能源净销出省,随时间的推移,隐含能源净销出值呈上升趋势;其次,对隐含能源占比较大的5个行业(食品制造及烟草加工业,石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业,化学工业,非金属矿物制品业,金属冶炼及压延加工业)进行了隐含碳排放量测算,结果表明,这5个行业的省外购进和销往省外隐含碳排放总量占隐含碳总排放量的72%以上,表明河南省的隐含碳排放集中在高耗能和高污染产业。本文对河南省的省际贸易提出了相关建议。     

中国能源消费、经济增长和碳排放的互动关系研究

协调好能源、经济和碳排放三者的关系意义重大。我国经济社会发展与能源环境约束的矛盾日益突出,全面实现可持续发展依旧任重而道远。为此,基于我国1990~2013年的年度时间序列数据,运用计量经济学方法对我国能源消费、经济增长和碳排放的互动关系进行实证分析。首先对数据预处理以消除不平稳性,并进行相关性检验。将处理后所得数据进行稳定性检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验。然后利用脉冲响应分析和方差分解测算三者之间的冲击效应和影响程度。研究结果表明,1990~2013年间,能源消费、经济增长和碳排放三者存在长期均衡关系和短期动态调整机制;碳排放对能源消费和经济增长存在单向因果关系,能源消费对经济增长存在单向因果关系;能源消费、经济增长和碳排放短期内受到碳排放的冲击影响较大,三者的主要贡献因子均为碳排放。依据研究结论,提出加大科研投入、优化产业结构、提高能源利用率和强化低碳意识等对策建议。     

基于主成分分析和BP神经网络的能源供需安全研究

基于主成分分析法,运用Matlab7.0软件中的BP神经网络工具箱对1985～2007年我国的能源供需安全状况进行了训练及测试.测试结果表明,主成分分析与BP神经网络的结果较吻合,BP神经网络运用于能源安全领域可行、有效.同时,得出自1985年以来我国能源供需安全状况大体上逐年提高,从2005年开始大幅提高,但仍未摆脱较差的境地,未来前景不容乐观.     

中国能源可持续发展评价指标体系构建与初步评价

能源可持续发展事关中国长期可持续发展的成败。为及时把握我国能源发展的状态趋势,实现在安全、经济、高效、低碳、清洁、公平各方面的均衡可持续发展,本文从中国经济社会可持续发展的基本需求和能源可持续发展的内涵出发,设计出中国能源可持续发展评价指标体系,并对2000～2010年中国能源可持续发展水平,以及2020年的能源情景进行了量化评价。研究结果将对我国能源战略决策具有重要支撑作用。     

我国经济增长对能源冲击的响应模式分析

利用1978年~2003年间我国经济增长与能源生产样本数据,首先检验了变量间是否存在协整关系,然后通过向量自回归模型(VAR)以及脉冲响应函数(IRF)分析,研究了经济增长对能源冲击的响应模式。实证研究发现我国经济增长与能源生产之间存在协整关系;经济增长对能源冲击的响应模式呈现出正弦波特征,具有时间大致为8年的周期性;同时,外部冲击对经济增长和能源生产的影响具有永久性效应。最后,强调了实证结果的经济与政策影响。     

基于影响因素的中国能源效率实证分析

能源是经济和社会发展必不可少的重要资源,节约使用能源、提高能源效率是实现经济和社会可持续发展的一个重要途径.本文通过系统梳理能源效率测算的一些通用方法,对我国经济能源效率在国际上所处的水平做了比较,分析了差异原因,并利用1996～2018年的年度统计数据对我国的经济能源效率历史变化趋势进行了实证分析,构建了定量模型.模...     

1998～2007年我国制造业族群能源消费分析

将我国制造业分为4个族群，介绍了1998～2007年10年间4个族群的能源消费情况，分析了该期间4个族群能源消费特征，即：第一族群能耗量最多，且呈增长趋势，是降低能源消费的重点；第二族群也应重视；第三、四族群中的个别行业可相应给予关注。分析了影响制造业能源消费的主要因素，对今后一段时间我国制造业族群能源消费及产业发展提出了建议．     

我国经济增长过程中的能源消费特点与趋势

能源问题关乎国家安全和经济社会的可持续发展。本文首先阐述了经济增长对能源消费影响的基本逻辑,在此基础上分析了我国能源消费的变化特点以及我国经济增长与能源消费间的基本关系变化。研究表明,我国能源消费正在快速增加,并表现出区域分化、城乡趋同、对环境污染日益加剧的特点。单位GDP能耗表现出先上升后下降的趋势,而能源的消费弹性波动明显。最后探讨了今后可能影响我国能源消费变动的关键因素并对未来我国能源消费的变动趋势进行了判断。     

美国能源出口的影响分析及政策建议

近10年来,随着美国非常规能源开发的突破,美国油气资源出口开始快速增长,特别是石油制品已经实现了年度净出口,美国能源独立又往前迈出了坚实一步。在此影响下,国际能源格局开始发生重大调整。在此背景下,中美油气贸易发展迎来新机遇,我国面临的能源安全形势将趋于复杂化,国内能源公司的生产、经营也面临新挑战。对我国来说,进口美国油气不仅可行,而且必要。     

The dynamic links between energy consumption,economic growth,financial development and trade in China: Fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis

This study investigates the relationship between energy use and economic growth by incorporating financial development, international trade and capital as important factors of production function in case of China over the period of 1971–2011. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration was applied to examine long run relationship among the series while stationarity properties of the variables was tested by applying structural break test.Our empirical evidence confirmed long run relationship among the variables. The results showed that energy use, financial development, capital, exports, imports and international trade have positive impact on economic growth. The Granger causality analysis revealed that unidirectional causal relationship running from energy use to economic growth. Financial development and energy use Granger cause each other. There is bidirectional causality between international trade and energy use. The feedback relation exists between financial development and international trade. There is also bidirectional causality exists between capital and energy demand, financial development and economic growth and, international trade and economic growth. This paper makes significant contribution in energy economics and opens up new direction for policy makers to explore new and alternative sources of energy which would be helpful in meeting the rising demand of energy due to sustained rate of economic growth.     

出口结构调整对我国能源需求的影响

出口是推动我国经济发展、带动能源需求快速增长的重要因素。为实现2020年全面小康社会发展目标,确保能源清洁、安全、可持续供应,实现对外承诺减排目标,必须持续大幅度降低单位GDP能耗,合理控制能源消费总量。调整和优化出口结构,降低出口的直接和间接能源消耗,是实现上述目标的重要途径。本文从转变发展方式、破解资源环境约束、提高出口的质量和效益等角度,分析了调整出口结构的必要性。利用投入产出和情景分析方法,对我国出口带来的直接和间接能源消费进行核算,并分析了调整和优化出口结构对我国未来一次能源需求的影响。建议调整"出口导向"的发展战略,减少高载能产品、低附加值机电和轻纺产品出口,加大服务贸易出口,促进对外贸易进一步转型升级。     

我国出口产品贸易结构与交通运输结构对能源消费总量的影响

随着经济的快速发展,我国能源消费总量不断增加,在我国能源消费体系中进口与出口产品结构之间形成巨大差异,运输能耗居高不下制约了经济的发展。本文针对我国能源消费结构的现状,从优化能源消耗的角度调整出口产品贸易结构和交通运输结构,促进"十二五"期间节能减排目标的实现。     

Analysis of energy embodied in the international trade of UK

Interest in the role embodied energy plays in international trade and its subsequent impact on energy security has grown. As a developed nation, the UK's economic structure has changed from that of a primary producer to that of a primary consumer. Although the UK's energy consumption appears to have peaked, it imports a lot of energy embodied in international trade alongside the more obvious direct energy imports. The UK has seen increasing dependency on imported fossil energy since the UK became a net energy importer in 2005. In this paper an energy input–output model is established to calculate not only the amount of fossil energy embodied in UK's imports and exports, but also the sector and country distributions of those embodied fossil energy. The research results suggest the following: UK's embodied fossil energy imports have exceeded embodied fossil energy exports every year since 1997, UK embodied energy imports through the so-called ‘Made in China’ phenomena are the largest accounting for 43% of total net fossil energy imports. If net embodied fossil energy imports are considered, the gap between energy consumption and production in UK is much larger than commonly perceived, with subsequent implications to the UK's energy security.     

Feasibility study of wind energy potential in China

Remarkable economic achievements have been made in China since the economic reform in 1978. High agricultural and industrial productivity as well as rapid development of the tertiary industry and continuous improvement of living standard have resulted in a jumping power demand. The pressing need for updating the current infrastructure, power industry in particular is the key to the sustainable economic growth and continuous industrialisation. The crucial role of rural industry in economic development and the fact of over 70% of the rural population have brought a great opportunity for wind energy development. One of the most cost-effective ways to diffuse wind power technology is through technology transfer based on joint venture activities due to the enormous initial capital investment and complexity of wind power technology to ease the severe domestic power shortage. Foreign aid and investment will no doubt have a stimulatory effect on wind energy development in China. The future benefits in terms of technology transfer and international trade will easily outweigh the current problems and thus contribute to sustainable economic development in many years to come.     

Determinants of global natural gas consumption and import–export flows

Based on the data of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, this paper constructs the consumption and import–export of natural gas identities. It discusses the drivers of changes in global natural gas consumption and trade flows from 2008 to 2015 using the extended logarithmic mean Divisia index. The results show that differences in the natural gas supply and demand across countries or regions, as well as the distribution of energy between the domestic and international markets, can be better explained when natural gas trade movements are considered. By comparing the supply and consumption increment of natural gas, this study finds that only the energy intensity, economic growth, and demographic effects are consistent with each other. The changes in the impact of other effects mainly depend on storage variations and statistical errors. In addition, the primary drivers of the incremental changes in natural gas consumption vary in different countries. They include production scale, import scale, export scale, consumption structure proportion, energy intensity, economic growth, and population and balance effects. Finally, the consumption competitiveness of the liquefied natural gas significantly improved over the examined period.     

中国高耗能产品温室气体排放及对出口影响研究

继美国国会众议院2009年通过国内温室气体排放控制法案后,参议院近期也提出了相应的法案文本。法案要求对进口高耗能、高温室气体排放产品实施"边境调节措施",这将影响到全球高耗能产品的国际贸易。由于之前对于生产高耗能产品的温室气体排放仅以单位综合能耗折算,未考虑其生产过程和工艺的排放,因此本文以粗钢、水泥和电解铝三种高耗能产品为例,考虑能源消耗与工艺过程的排放,计算出2006年单位产品温室气体排放分别为2.05、0.71和19.30tCO2/t。按照美国新法案规定,中国出口美国这些产品将被额外征收8.6%、36.0%和14.0%的"碳关税"。这表明中国必须在转变本国经济发展模式的基础上,通过在国际贸易体系下的协商,积极掌握应对国际减排温室气体的新趋势。     

Renewable energy,trade, and economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region

This paper employs panel multivariate technology to probe the impact of renewable energy and trade (imports and exports) on the output and to study the Granger causality between the mentioned variables with a sample of 15 Asia-Pacific countries for the period of 1994–2014. Short-run causality tests show bidirectional causal relationship between the output and exports and no Granger causal relationship from imports to renewable energy or the output. Moreover, long-run causality tests show bidirectional causality between the output and renewable energy, and unidirectional causality from international trade (imports and exports) to the output and renewable energy. The long-run elasticities indicate that the renewable energy consumption and trade play positive roles in economic growth. This study’s energy policy recommendation is that policy authorities should encourage the development of trade (imports and exports), which not only drives economic growth and prosperity but also accelerates the pace of renewable energy consumption.     

Technologies and policies for the transition to a sustainable energy system in china

The paper highlights the energy dilemma in China’s modernization process. It explores the technological and policy options for the transition to a sustainable energy system in China with Tsinghua University’s Low Carbon Energy Model (LCEM). China has already taken intensive efforts to promote research, development, demonstration and commercialization of sustainable energy technologies over the past five year. The policy actions cover binding energy conservation and environmental pollution control targets, economic incentives for sustainable energy, and public R&D supports. In order to achieve the sustainable energy system transformation eventually, however, China needs to take further actions such as strengthening R&D of radically innovative sustainable energy technologies and systems such as poly-generation, enhancing the domestic manufacturing capacity of sustainable energy technologies and systems, creating stronger economic incentives for research, development, demonstration and commercialization of sustainable energy technologies, and playing a leading role in international technology collaborations.     

科学发展观指导下的中国能源发展战略

能源发展战略是对能源总体发展的部署、谋划和设计。我国能源发展战略既是在科学发展观指导下制定的,又是科学发展观的重要组成部分。我国能源发展战略的基本内容是坚持节约优先、立足国内、多元发展、保护环境、科技创新、深化改革、国际合作、改善民生,推进能源生产和利用方式变革,构建安全、稳定、经济、清洁的现代能源产业体系,努力以能源的可持续发展支撑经济社会的可持续发展。构建可持续发展的能源体系是我国能源发展战略的核心。坚持节约资源的基本国策,加快建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会,是贯彻落实科学发展观、实现可持续发展的必然要求,这为我国在科学发展观指导下制定能源资源安全战略提供了依据。加强国际能源合作是能源发展战略的重要内容。需要从战略高度充分认识做好能源资源工作的重要性和紧迫性,按照科学发展观指导下的能源安全战略的指引,科学谋划我国能源发展的总体方略,促进中国能源产业的健康、有序、可持续发展。