Research Watch: Climate change

Modeling.     

Research Watch: Climate change effects

Policy.     

气候变化、碳排放和纺织工业

1 气候变化 气候变化,即全球变暖,是指由于人类的活动,增加了温室气体在大气中的排放,从而引起地球温度的上升.该问题导致的严重后果已引起联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)的高度重视.自工业革命以来,全球已向大气排放了3 000多亿吨的二氧化碳.据科学家分析,当大气中二氧化碳浓度超过350 ppm(每百万单位气体体积),则地球就处于比较危险的边缘.     

Climate change and food safety: A review

Climate change and variability may have an impact on the occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of the food chain, from primary production through to consumption. There are multiple pathways through which climate related factors may impact food safety including: changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ocean warming and acidification, and changes in contaminants’ transport pathways among others. Climate change may also affect socio-economic aspects related to food systems such as agriculture, animal production, global trade, demographics and human behaviour which all influence food safety.This paper reviews the potential impacts of predicted changes in climate on food contamination and food safety at various stages of the food chain and identifies adaptation strategies and research priorities to address food safety implications of climate change. The paper concludes that there is a need for intersectoral and international cooperation to better understand the changing food safety situation and in developing and implementing adaptation strategies to address emerging risks associated with climate change.     

Climate change and seafood safety: Human health implications

Worldwide, anthropogenic climate change is now a reality and is already affecting the biology and ecology of some organisms, as well as several chemical pathways. Little is known about the consequences of climate change for the food system, particularly seafood, comprising all stages from ‘‘farm to fork” (mainly primary production, processing, transport and trading). In this context, the current review aims to elucidate climate change impacts on seafood safety and its human health implications. Both chemical and biological risks are foreseen to impair seafood safety in the future as a consequence of climate change; in particular, toxic metals, organic chemicals residues, algal toxins and pathogens of both humans and marine organisms. However, different species respond differently to such stresses. Public health authorities will face new challenges to guarantee seafood safety and to sustain consumers’ confidence in eating seafood in a warmer world.     

Climate change increases deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat in north-western Europe

Climate change will affect the development of cereal crops and the occurrence of mycotoxins in these crops, but so far little research has been done on quantifying the expected effects. The aim of this study was to assess climate change impacts on the occurrence of deoxynivalenol in wheat grown in north-western Europe by 2040, considering the combined effects of shifts in wheat phenology and climate. The study used climate model data for the future period of 2031-2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975-1994. A weather generator was used for generating synthetic series of daily weather data for both the baseline and the future periods. Available models for wheat phenology and prediction of deoxynivalenol concentrations in north-western Europe were used. Both models were run for winter wheat and spring wheat, separately. The results showed that both flowering and full maturation of wheat will be earlier in the season because of climate change effects, about 1 to 2 weeks. Deoxynivalenol contamination was found to increase in most of the study region, with an increase of the original concentrations by up to 3 times. The study results may inform governmental and industrial risk managers to underpin decision-making and planning processes in north-western Europe. On the local level, deoxynivalenol contamination should be closely monitored to pick out wheat batches with excess levels at the right time. Using predictive models on a more local scale could be helpful to assist other monitoring measures to safeguard food safety in the wheat supply chain.     

Climate change, flooding and food security in south Asia

The most vulnerable groups in terms of food security during floods in south Asia under climate change will be the poor, women and children. Current procedures for the transfer of climate adaptation funds tend to marginalize these groups. Food production is being disrupted by flooding more frequently and more severely than before, due to climate change. By 2080 the situation is likely to be much worse than at present. Adaptation has to encourage management of all stages of food security, from the farm to the consumer, both urban and rural. Measures have to be participatory, from the community to the international level. While many individual initiatives offer hope and demonstrate good practice, institutional, economic and environmental factors may all impede the maintenance and enhancement of food security in south Asia. Innovative forms of food production, distribution and storage will have to be developed.

Climate change levy and its application within the dairy industry

The government's climate change levy on energy use in the nondomestic sector was announced in the March 1999 Budget and came into effect on 1 April 2001. During 1990 it is estimated that 603 million tonnes of carbon dioxide contributed to 79% of the UK's greenhouse gas emissions.
  Nationally, energy consumption within the dairy industry contributes to only 0.2% of the UK's annual emissions of carbon dioxide and climate change levy agreements throughout the industry are unlikely to have a major impact on the government's Climate Change Programme.
  Paradoxically, the arrangements that dairies are required to put into place as part of their Climate Change Agreements are of paramount importance for the achievement of operational and process efficiency within the dairy sector.