考虑需求不确定性的化工生产计划与调度集成

生产计划与调度是化工供应链优化中两个重要的决策问题。为了提高生产决策的效率,不仅要对计划与调度进行集成,而且要考虑不确定性的影响。对于多周期生产计划与调度问题,首先在每个生产周期内,分别建立计划与调度的确定性模型,通过产量关联对二者进行集成。然后考虑需求不确定性,使用有限数量的场景表达决策变量,建立二阶段随机规划模型。最后运用滚动时域求解策略,使计划与调度结果在迭代过程中达到一致。实例结果表明,在考虑需求不确定性时,与传统方法相比,随机规划方法可以降低总费用,结合计划与调度的分层集成策略,实现了生产操作性和经济性的综合优化。     

Risk management for a global supply chain planning under uncertainty: Models and algorithms

In this article, we consider the risk management for mid‐term planning of a global multi‐product chemical supply chain under demand and freight rate uncertainty. A two‐stage stochastic linear programming approach is proposed within a multi‐period planning model that takes into account the production and inventory levels, transportation modes, times of shipments, and customer service levels. To investigate the potential improvement by using stochastic programming, we describe a simulation framework that relies on a rolling horizon approach. The studies suggest that at least 5% savings in the total real cost can be achieved compared with the deterministic case. In addition, an algorithm based on the multi‐cut L‐shaped method is proposed to effectively solve the resulting large scale industrial size problems. We also introduce risk management models by incorporating risk measures into the stochastic programming model, and multi‐objective optimization schemes are implemented to establish the tradeoffs between cost and risk. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed stochastic models and decomposition algorithms, a case study of a realistic global chemical supply chain problem is presented. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2009     

Mid-term supply chain planning under demand uncertainty: customer demand satisfaction and inventory management

This paper utilizes the framework of mid-term, multisite supply chain planning under demand uncertainty to safeguard against inventory depletion at the production sites and excessive shortage at the customer. A chance constraint programming approach in conjunction with a two-stage stochastic programming methodology is utilized for capturing the trade-off between customer demand satisfaction (CDS) and production costs. In the proposed model, the production decisions are made before demand realization while the supply chain decisions are delayed. The challenge associated with obtaining the second stage recourse function is resolved by first obtaining a closed-form solution of the inner optimization problem using linear programming duality followed by expectation evaluation by analytical integration. In addition, analytical expressions for the mean and standard deviation of the inventory are derived and used for setting the appropriate CDS levels in the supply chain. A three-site example supply chain is studied within the proposed framework for providing quantitative guidelines for setting customer satisfaction levels and uncovering effective inventory management options. Results indicate that significant improvement in guaranteed service levels can be obtained for a small increase in the total cost.     

Medium-term maintenance turnaround planning under uncertainty for integrated chemical sites

Plant maintenance poses extended disruptions to production. Maintenance effects are amplified when the plant is part of an integrated chemical site, as production levels of adjacent plants in the site are also significantly influenced. A challenge in dealing with turnarounds is the difficulty in predicting their duration, due to discovery work and delays. This uncertainty in duration affects two major planning decisions: production levels and maintenance manpower allocation. The latter must be decided several months before the turnarounds occur. We address the scheduling of a set of plant turnarounds over a medium-term of several months using integer programming formulations. Due to the nature of uncertainty, production decisions are treated through stochastic programming ideas, while the manpower aspect is handled through a robust optimization framework. We propose combined robust optimization and stochastic programming formulations to address the problem and demonstrate, through an industrial case study, the potential for significant savings.     

需求不确定下炼油企业生产计划优化混合规划模型

Abstract Production planning under uncertainty is considered as one of the most important problems in plant-wide optimization. In this article, first, a stochastic programming model with uniform distribution assumption is developed for refinery production planning under demand uncertainty, and then a hybrid programming model incorporating the linear programming model with the stochastic programming one by a weight factor is proposed. Subsequently, piecewise linear approximation functions are derived and applied to solve the hybrid programming model-under uniform distribution assumption. Case studies show that the linear approximation algorithm is effective to solve.the hybrid programming model, along with an error≤0.5% when the deviatiorgmean≤20%. The simulation results indicate that the hybrid programming model with an appropriate weight factor （0.1-0.2） can effectively improve the optimal operational strategies under demand uncertainty, achieving higher profit than the linear programming model and the stochastic programming one with about 1.3% and 0.4% enhancement, respectavely.     

Optimal design and planning of sustainable chemical supply chains under uncertainty

This article addresses the design of sustainable chemical supply chains in the presence of uncertainty in the life cycle inventory associated with the network operation. The design task is mathematically formulated as a bi‐criterion stochastic mixed‐integer nonlinear program (MINLP) that simultaneously accounts for the maximization of the net present value and the minimization of the environmental impact for a given probability level. The environmental performance is measured through the Eco‐indicator 99, which incorporates the recent advances made in Life Cycle Assessment. The stochastic model is converted into its deterministic equivalent by reformulating the probabilistic constraint required to calculate the environmental impact in the space of uncertain parameters. The resulting deterministic bi‐criterion MINLP problem is further reformulated as a parametric MINLP, which is solved by decomposing it into two sub‐problems and iterating between them. The capabilities of the proposed model and solution procedure are illustrated through two case studies for which the set of Pareto optimal, or efficient solutions that trade‐off environmental impact and profit, are calculated. These solutions provide valuable insights into the design problem and are intended to guide the decision maker towards the adoption of more sustainable design alternatives. © 2008 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2009     

Design under uncertainty of hydrocarbon biorefinery supply chains: Multiobjective stochastic programming models,decomposition algorithm,and a Comparison between CVaR and downside risk

A bicriterion, multiperiod, stochastic mixed‐integer linear programming model to address the optimal design of hydrocarbon biorefinery supply chains under supply and demand uncertainties is presented. The model accounts for multiple conversion technologies, feedstock seasonality and fluctuation, geographical diversity, biomass degradation, demand variation, government incentives, and risk management. The objective is simultaneous minimization of the expected annualized cost and the financial risk. The latter criterion is measured by conditional value‐at‐risk and downside risk. The model simultaneously determines the optimal network design, technology selection, capital investment, production planning, and logistics management decisions. Multicut L‐shaped method is implemented to circumvent the computational burden of solving large scale problems. The proposed modeling framework and algorithm are illustrated through four case studies of hydrocarbon biorefinery supply chain for the State of Illinois. Comparisons between the deterministic and stochastic solutions, the different risk metrics, and two decomposition methods are discussed. The computational results show the effectiveness of the proposed strategy for optimal design of hydrocarbon biorefinery supply chain under the presence of uncertainties. © 2012 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2012     

Integration of production planning and scheduling: Overview, challenges and opportunities

We review the integration of medium-term production planning and short-term scheduling. We begin with an overview of supply chain management and the associated planning problems. Next, we formally define the production planning problem and explain why integration with scheduling leads to better solutions. We present the major modeling approaches for the integration of scheduling and planning decisions, and discuss the major solution strategies. We close with an account of the challenges and opportunities in this area.     

New measures and procedures to manage financial risk with applications to the planning of gas commercialization in Asia

This paper presents some new concepts and procedures for financial risk management. To complement the use of value at risk a new concept, upside potential or opportunity value as means to weigh opportunity loss versus risk reduction as well as an area ratio are introduced and discussed. Upper and lower bounds for risk curves corresponding to the optimal stochastic solution are developed, the application of the sampling average algorithm, one scenario at a time, is analyzed, and the relation between two-stage stochastic models that manage risk and the use of chance constraints is discussed. Finally, some anomalies arising from the use of value at risk and regret analysis are pointed out. These concepts are applied to the commercialization of gas and/or gas-derivatives (synthetic gasoline, methanol, and ammonia) in Asia. Results show that, given the set of costs chosen, the production of synthetic gasoline should be the investment of choice and that the use of contracts can increase expected profit. Other suboptimal cases are also revealed and it is shown how financial risk can be managed.     

Multistage stochastic programming for the closed-loop supply chain planning with mobile modules under uncertainty

Traditional supply chains usually follow fixed facility designs which coincide with the strategic nature of supply chain management (SCM). However, as the global market turns more volatile, the concept of mobile modularization has been adopted by increasingly more industrial practitioners. In mobile modular networks, modular units can be installed or removed at a particular site to expand or reduce the capacity of a facility, or relocated to other sites to tackle market volatility. In this work, we formulate a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model for the closed-loop supply chain network planning with modular distribution and collection facilities. To further deal with uncertain customer demands and recovery rates, we extend our model to a multistage stochastic programming model and efficiently solve it using a tailored stochastic dynamic dual integer programming (SDDiP) with Magnanti-Wong enhanced cuts. Computational experiments show that the added Magnanti-Wong cuts in the proposed algorithm can effectively close the gap between upper and lower bounds, and the benefit of mobile modules is evident when the temporal and spatial variability of customer demand is high.     

Joint capacity planning and distribution network optimization of coal supply chains under uncertainty

A two‐stage stochastic integer programming model is developed to address the joint capacity planning and distribution network optimization of multiechelon coal supply chains (CSCs) under uncertainty. The proposed model not only introduces the uses of compound real options in sequential capacity planning, but also considers uncertainty induced by both risks and ambiguities. Both strategic decisions (i.e., facility locations and initial investment, service assignment across the entire CSC, and option holding status) and scenario‐based operational decisions (i.e., facility operations and capacity expansions, outsourcing policy, and transportation and inventory strategies) can be simultaneously determined using the model. By exploiting the nested decomposable structure of the model, we develop a new distributed parallel optimization algorithm based on nonconvex generalized Bender decomposition and Lagrangean relaxation to mitigate the computation resource limitation. One of the main CSCs in China is studied to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and the performance of the algorithm. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 64: 1246–1261, 2018     

The effect of uncertainty on the optimal closed-loop supply chain planning under different partnerships structure

In a global economy, the key to success is providing products around the world at the right time in the right quantity and quality, at a low cost. Efficient supply chains have an important role in guaranteeing this success. Optimized planning of such structures is required and uncertainties regarding product demands and prices, amongst other supply chain conditions, should also be considered. In this paper, we look into supply chain planning decisions that account for uncertainty on product portfolios demand and prices. A multi-period planning model is developed where the supply chain operational decisions on supply, production, transportation, and distribution at the actual period consider the uncertainty on products’ demand and prices. Different decision scenarios, involving the evaluation of the supply chain economical performance, are analyzed (e.g. global operating costs/profit realized) for different criteria on the importance of the partners within the global chain (i.e. partners’ structure). A Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) formulation is formulated for each planning scenario and the optimal solution is reached using a standard Branch and Bound (B&B) procedure. The final results provide details on the supply chain partners production, transportation and inventory, at each planning period, while accounting for the importance of each partner in the global chain as well as demand/price uncertainties. The applicability of the developed formulation is illustrated through the solution of a real case-study involving an industrial chain in the pharmaceutical sector.     

Multiechelon supply chain planning with sequence‐dependent changeovers and price elasticity of demand under uncertainty

An optimization framework is proposed for a multiechelon multiproduct process supply chain planning under demand uncertainty considering inventory deviation and price fluctuation. In this problem, the sequence‐dependent changeovers occur at the production plants, and price elasticity of demand is considered at the markets. Based on the classic formulation of travelling salesman problem (TSP), a mixed‐integer liner programming (MILP) is developed, whose objective function considers the profit, inventory deviations from the desired trajectories and price changes simultaneously. Model predictive control (MPC) approach is adopted to tackle the uncertain issues, as well as the inventory and price maintenance. The applicability of the proposed model and approach was illustrated by solving a supply chain example. Some issues, including length of the control horizon, price elasticity of demand, weights, inventory trajectories, and changeovers, are discussed based on the computational results. © 2012 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2012     

Modular supply chain optimization considering demand uncertainty to manage risk

Supply chain under demand uncertainty has been a challenging problem due to increased competition and market volatility in modern markets. Flexibility in planning decisions makes modular manufacturing a promising way to address this problem. In this work, the problem of multiperiod process and supply chain network design is considered under demand uncertainty. A mixed integer two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated with integer variables indicating the process design and continuous variables to represent the material flow in the supply chain. The problem is solved using a rolling horizon approach. Benders decomposition is used to reduce the computational complexity of the optimization problem. To promote risk-averse decisions, a downside risk measure is incorporated in the model. The results demonstrate the several advantages of modular designs in meeting product demands. A pareto-optimal curve for minimizing the objectives of expected cost and downside risk is obtained.     

A multiobjective optimization framework for design of integrated biorefineries under uncertainty

A systematic approach for development of a reliable optimization framework to address the optimal design of integrated biorefineries in the face of uncertainty is presented. In the current formulation, a distributed strategy which is composed of different layers including strategic optimization, risk management, detailed mechanistic modeling, and operational level optimization is applied. In the strategic model, a multiobjective stochastic optimization approach is utilized to incorporate the tradeoffs between the cost and the financial risk. Then, Aspen Plus models are built to provide detailed simulation of biorefineries. In the final layer, an evolutionary algorithm is employed to optimize the operating condition. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework, a hypothetical case study referring to a multiproduct lignocellulosic biorefinery is utilized. The numerical results reveal the efficacy of the proposed approach; it provides decision makers with a quantitative analysis to determine the optimum capacity plan and operating conditions of the biorefinery. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 61: 3208–3222, 2015     

Robust decision making for hybrid process supply chain systems via model predictive control

Model predictive control (MPC) is a promising solution for the effective control of process supply chains. This paper presents an optimization-based decision support tool for supply chain management, by means of a robust MPC strategy. The proposed formulation: (i) captures uncertainty in model parameters and demand by stochastic programming, (ii) accommodates hybrid process systems with decisions governed by logical conditions/rulesets, and (iii) addresses multiple supply chain performance metrics including customer service and economics, within an integrated optimization framework. Two mechanisms for uncertainty propagation are presented – an open-loop approach, and an approximate closed-loop strategy. The performance of the robust MPC framework is analyzed through its application to two process supply chain case studies. The proposed approach is shown to provide a substantial reduction in the occurrence of back orders when compared to a nominal MPC implementation.     

Theoretical framework for formulating MIP scheduling models with multiple and non-uniform discrete-time grids

We present a framework for the formulation of MIP scheduling models based on multiple and nonuniform discrete time grids. In a previous work we showed that it is possible to use different (possibly non-uniform) time grids for each task, unit, and material. Here, we generalize these ideas to account for general resources, and a range of processing characteristics such as limited intermediate storage and changeovers. Each resource has its own grid based on resource consumption and availability allowing resource constraints to be modeled more accurately without increasing the number of binary variables. We develop algorithms to define the unit-, task-, material-, and resource-specific grids directly from problem data. Importantly, we prove that the multi-grid formulation is able to find a schedule with the same optimal objective as the discrete-time single-grid model with an arbitrarily fine grid. The proposed framework leads to the formulation of models with reduced number of binary variables and constraints, which are able to find good solutions faster than existing models.     

石油供应链计划层优化与不确定性风险管理模型

提出了一种基于有限场景的两阶段随机混合整数线性规划（MILP）模型,来优化不确定条件下多周期、多层级的石油工业供应链的计划层管理。模型以碳排放税的形式将减少CO₂排放的环境目标融入到经济目标之中。供应链的各级节点均以黑箱的形式存在,使模型得以简化,在时间尺度相对较长的计划层获得优化结果,为供应链的计划与管理提供指导方案。并且分析了算例最优期望收益的风险性,在此基础上引入风险管理约束,得到了带有风险管理约束的供应链计划层优化模型。该模型的结果与原模型相比,期望收益附近的收益风险性降低。