A Multiply Connected Belief Network approach for schedule risk analysis of metropolitan construction projects

Metropolitan construction projects may be distinguished from other types of projects due to their specific nature. Issues with regard to purchase of property obstacles, a lack of accurate layout drawings for some underground facilities and, therefore, following probable changes in designs make it vital to have specific studies on risk analysis of such engineering projects. However, conventional methods offered in literature of risk analysis fail to consider the interactional mechanisms of risks and their simultaneous occurrence. This paper exploits the Multiply Connected Belief Network approach in MATLAB environment to analyse the simultaneous occurrence of risk factors on schedule delay of a highway project. The method of inference is through Junction Tree Algorithm due to existence of multiply connections in the developed network of the project. The findings for schedule delay were tested in a different space using Monte Carlo simulation and had satisfactory results.     

Quality control and due diligence in project management: Getting decisions right by taking the outside view

This paper explores how theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may be used to conduct quality control and due diligence in project management. First, a much-neglected issue in project management is identified, namely that the front-end estimates of costs and benefits – used in the business cases, cost–benefit analyses, and social and environmental impact assessments that typically support decisions on projects – are commonly significantly different from actual ex post costs and benefits, and are therefore poor predictors of the actual value and viability of projects. Second, it is discussed how Kahneman and Tversky's theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may help explain and remedy this situation through quality control of decisions. Third, it is described what quality control and due diligence are in the context of project management, and an eight-step procedure is outlined for due diligence based on the outside view. Fourth, the procedure is tested on a real-life, multibillion-dollar project, organized as a public–private partnership. Finally, Akerlof and Shiller's recent discussion in economics of “firing the forecaster” is discussed together with its relevance to project management. In sum, the paper demonstrates the need, the theoretical basis, a practical methodology, and a real-life example for how to de-bias project management using quality control and due diligence based on the outside view.     

基于云模型和灰关联度法的巨项目组织联盟合作伙伴评价研究

巨项目组织联盟建立的关键环节在于科学合理地选择战略合作伙伴,潜在合作伙伴快速准确的评价是选择合作伙伴及构建组织联盟的重要依据。基于巨项目组织联盟合作伙伴评价的模糊性和随机性特征,在构建评价指标体系的基础上,运用云模型及云的不确定性推理,将潜在合作伙伴指标因子的定性评价量化为分值,以实现定性概念与其定量表示之间的有效转换;进而运用灰色关联度理论,提出基于云模型和灰色关联度法的巨项目组织联盟合作伙伴评价方法。通过实例分析,表明该方法具有较强的可行性和有效性。