Scientific analysis is essential to assess biofuel policy effects: In response to the paper by Kim and Dale on “Indirect land-use change for biofuels: Testing predictions and improving analytical methodologies”

Land-use change (LUC) estimated by economic models has sparked intense international debate. Models estimate how much LUC might be induced under prescribed scenarios and rely on assumptions to generate LUC values. It is critical to test and validate underlying assumptions with empirical evidence. Furthermore, this modeling approach cannot answer if any specific indirect effects are actually caused by biofuel policy. The best way to resolve questions of causation is via scientific methods. Kim and Dale attempt to address the question of if, rather than how much, market-induced land-use change is currently detectable based on the analysis of historic evidence, and in doing so, explore some modeling assumptions behind the drivers of change. Given that there is no accepted approach to estimate the global effects of biofuel policy on land-use change, it is critical to assess the actual effects of policies through careful analysis and interpretation of empirical data. Decision makers need a valid scientific basis for policy decisions on energy choices.     

Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: Sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields

There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a "food first" approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO(2) on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161?EJ?y(-1), depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply.     

Combining bioenergy and food security: An approach and rapid appraisal to guide bioenergy policy formulation

In the bioenergy discourse that ties energy and agricultural markets closely together, evidence based policy formulation is key to ensure integrated food and energy systems are developed when viable. Bioenergy is a particularly complex form of renewable energy as it covers a broad range of disciplines thus requiring a multidisciplinary approach to ensure viability. If built in a specific manner it has the option to target and provide investments in agriculture, a key sector for a number of developing economies.Due to the complexity of the issue, generating information, especially when resources are limited, can be cumbersome. We present a multidisciplinary approach, the Bioenergy and Food Security (BEFS) Rapid Appraisal, that can provide a first level of information within the decision making process.The analysis within the BEFS Rapid Appraisal defines the country context, estimates the biomass available for bioenergy production and ties this amount to specific bioenergy supply chains. Available biomass originating from agriculture is calculated net of current and foreseen uses and needs, thus accounting for food security. The bioenergy production potential is evaluated by quantifying the feedstock available, identifying income and employment opportunities, and energy access options. We present an application of the BEFS Rapid Appraisal for rural electrification options in Malawi.     

On sustainability of bioenergy production: Integrating co-emissions from agricultural intensification

Biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops is seen as a substantial part of future energy systems, especially if climate policy aims at stabilizing CO₂ concentration at low levels. However, among other concerns of sustainability, the large-scale use of bioenergy is controversial because it is hypothesized to increase the competition for land and therefore raise N₂O emissions from agricultural soils due to intensification. We apply a global land-use model that is suited to assess agricultural non-CO₂ GHG emissions. First, we describe how fertilization of cellulosic bioenergy crops and associated N₂O emissions are implemented in the land-use model and how future bioenergy demand is derived by an energy-economy-climate model. We then assess regional N₂O emissions from the soil due to large-scale bioenergy application, the expansion of cropland and the importance of technological change for dedicated bioenergy crops. Finally, we compare simulated N₂O emissions from the agricultural sector with CO₂ emissions from the energy sector to investigate the real contribution of bioenergy for low stabilization scenarios.As a result, we find that N₂O emissions due to energy crop production are a minor factor. Nevertheless, these co-emissions can be significant for the option of removing CO₂ from the atmosphere (by combining bioenergy use with carbon capture and storage (CCS) options) possibly needed at the end of the century for climate mitigation. Furthermore, our assessment shows that bioenergy crops will occupy large shares of available cropland and will require high rates of technological change at additional costs.     

Cost-effective policy instruments for greenhouse gas emission reduction and fossil fuel substitution through bioenergy production in Austria

Climate change mitigation and security of energy supply are important targets of Austrian energy policy. Bioenergy production based on resources from agriculture and forestry is an important option for attaining these targets. To increase the share of bioenergy in the energy supply, supporting policy instruments are necessary. The cost-effectiveness of these instruments in attaining policy targets depends on the availability of bioenergy technologies. Advanced technologies such as second-generation biofuels, biomass gasification for power production, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) will likely change the performance of policy instruments. This article assesses the cost-effectiveness of energy policy instruments, considering new bioenergy technologies for the year 2030, with respect to greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction and fossil fuel substitution. Instruments that directly subsidize bioenergy are compared with instruments that aim at reducing GHG emissions. A spatially explicit modeling approach is used to account for biomass supply and energy distribution costs in Austria. Results indicate that a carbon tax performs cost-effectively with respect to both policy targets if BECCS is not available. However, the availability of BECCS creates a trade-off between GHG emission reduction and fossil fuel substitution. Biofuel blending obligations are costly in terms of attaining the policy targets.     

Energy efficiency in India: Assessing the policy regimes and their impacts

In the recent years, India has emerged as one of the fast growing economies of the world necessitating equally rapid increase in modern energy consumption. With an imminent global climate change threat, India will have difficulties in continuing with this rising energy use levels towards achieving high economic growth. It will have to follow an energy-efficient pathway in attaining this goal. In this context, an attempt is made to present India's achievements on the energy efficiency front by tracing the evolution of policies and their impacts. The results indicate that India has made substantial progress in improving energy efficiency which is evident from the reductions achieved in energy intensities of GDP to the tune of 88% during 1980–2007. Similar reductions have been observed both with respect to overall Indian economy and the major sectors of the economy. In terms of energy intensity of GDP, India occupies a relatively high position of nine among the top 30 energy consuming countries of the world.     

Using rye as cover crop for bioenergy production: An environmental and economic assessment

The use of cover crops (CCs) during winter can improve the structure and water retention capacity of the soil. Additionally, the harvested CCs could be used as substrate in an anaerobic digestion (AD) plant. This paper aims at assessing the environmental and economic consequences of planting rye as a winter CC (after maize) and its use as co-substrate in an AD plant (Rye scenario) instead of leaving the land fallow during winter and use solely maize for co-digestion with manure (NoRye scenario). The life cycle assessment (LCA) of 1 MJ of produced bioenergy (36% electricity and 64% heat) shows significant benefits for marine eutrophication for the Rye scenario due to reductions in nitrate leaching. However, the lower specific yield of rye and the biogas potential for the Rye scenario resulted in higher total impacts on climate change and resource depletion (higher use of machinery and infrastructures for 1 MJ of produced bioenergy), as compared to the use of maize in the NoRye scenario. Based on the analysis, possible methodological improvements are highlighted, in particular for the simulation of field emissions and regionalization of impacts. From an economic point-of-view, planting rye during winter could generate additional revenues for the farmer. However, the calculation incorporates large uncertainties, linked mainly to price volatility, seasonal weather conditions (and related yield variations), and to the possible influence of CCs on the summer crop yield. In conclusion, this paper presents a first overview of the sustainability performances of using rye as a CC for energy purposes.     

Impacts of policy means for increased use of forest-based bioenergy in Norway—A spatial partial equilibrium analysis

Like the European Union (EU), Norway has defined quite ambitious targets regarding increased use of bioenergy. However, the bioenergy market develops relatively slowly, and stronger policies seem necessary to reach the targets. This study analyses how different policy means, high on the agenda in the Norwegian energy debate, may affect the use of forest-based bioenergy in Norway. The means studied are (i) subsidies reducing investment costs of district heating installations, (ii) deposit grant for replacement of oil burners with burners based on bioenergy (iii) feed-in supporting energy production in district heating based on bioenergy. The study is based on a regionalised partial equilibrium model covering forestry, forest industries and the bioenergy sector. The advantage of this methodology is that it allows for assessments of the economic potential of bioenergy under different policy alternatives, taking into account the competition for raw materials from the forest industries, regional differences regarding heat demand and wood fibre supply, as well as important spatial aspects connected to inter-regional transport and trade of wood.

The results of the study give medium-term projections for bioenergy use in Norway under different bioenergy policy regimes. Some investments in bioburners in central heating systems and new district heating based on bioenergy are profitable at the current energy prices, but policy incentives in terms of grants, subsidies or feed-in systems make it possible to overcome inertia in investments decisions and provide substantial increase in the supply of bioenergy. The results show that the analysed policy means are effective at the current energy price levels and have a significant impact on bioenergy production. While some results are specific to Norway, other results and the methodology used are of more general value also to other European countries.     

Evaluating the need for economic support policies in promoting greenhouse gas emission reduction measures in the building sector: The case of Greece

During the last decade the CO₂ emissions from the residential and tertiary sectors have been rising continuously. This is cause for concern but also an area to be targeted for emission reduction measures in national action plans. This paper proposes a methodological framework, using the Greek building sector (characterized by an aging building stock constructed mostly in the period before 1980) as a case study for the examination of the economic attractiveness of possible measures, which incorporates crucial parameters such as local climate, use of buildings, age of building stock, etc. that affect the energy conservation potential and consequently the economic performance of available measures. Utilizing this framework, the approach is able to classify measures into three categories, namely ‘win–win’ cases (i.e. where the implementation of emission reduction measures presents a net economic benefit for end-users), measures that require the implementation of appropriate economic support policies in order to make them economically attractive for end-users, and measures that have excessive cost. The results indicate that the emissions reduction potential of ‘win–win’ cases is significant. They also demonstrate how individual measures can provide significant reductions if carefully targeted economic support policies are applied. Finally, sensitivity analyses performed with respect to the discount rate applied indicate that it has a substantial impact on the economic performance of some measures and consequently on the magnitude of the ‘win–win’ potential associated to emissions reduction.     

Production functions for climate policy modeling: An empirical analysis

Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. The empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. This paper estimates the parameters of 2-level CES production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. Using industry-level data from 12 OECD countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. These two nesting structures are used by most climate models. However, while several climate policy models use a Cobb–Douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. Finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. With lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy.     

Assessing the economic efficiency of bioenergy technologies in climate mitigation and fossil fuel replacement in Austria using a techno-economic approach

The core issues of the Austrian energy policy agenda include reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. Within this study, the costs of GHG mitigation and fossil fuel replacement (abatement costs) of established and upcoming bioenergy technologies for heat, electricity and transport fuel production are assessed. Sensitivity analyses and projections up to 2030 illustrate the effect of dynamic parameters on specific abatement costs.     

Sustainability trade-offs in bioenergy development in the Philippines: An application of conjoint analysis

Sustainability assessments of bioenergy production are essential because it can have both positive and negative impacts on society. Human preferences that influence trade-off decisions on the relevant determinants and indicators of sustainability should be taken into account in these assessments. In this paper, we conducted a survey with five groups of respondents including government officials and employees, academic and research professionals, private company managers and workers, farm owners and workers, and others (e.g. students, residents, etc.) to assess their trade-off decisions on bioenergy development in the Philippines. The analyses of the survey results reveal that sustainability of bioenergy production will depend on the choice of biomass feedstock and these choices depend on people's perceptions. Heterogeneous perceptions among the different groups of respondents on the appropriate bioenergy feedstock to achieve economic, social and ecological sustainability suggest that sustainability of bioenergy is not a generic concept. The use of aggregate indices for sustainability assessments that ignore these perceptions on bioenergy production can thus be very misleading. The preference weights from conjoint analysis, which measure human preferences on different determinants and indicators of economic, social and ecological sustainability, can help improve sustainability assessments.     

Analysis of variability and correlation in long-term economic growth rates

Quantifying the uncertainty in future climate change is an important input into policy decisions. Two important sources of uncertainty are economic growth and technological change, which in turn contribute to uncertainty in future emissions. In this paper, we focus on uncertainty in one type of technical change: productivity growth. Estimates of uncertainty in future growth must necessarily include expert judgment, since the future will not necessarily look like the past. But previous uncertainty studies have taken expert judgments based on annual national growth rates, and applied them to models with regional aggregations and multi-year time steps, and often have made crude assumptions about the correlation between regions. This paper analyzes data on the variability and covariability of historical economic productivity growth rates, and investigates the effect of spatial and temporal aggregation on variance. The results are intended to inform participants in expert elicitation exercises on future economic growth uncertainty.     

ECLIPSE: An integrated energy-economy model for climate policy and scenario analysis

This paper describes the development of the Energy and Climate Policy and Scenario Evaluation (ECLIPSE) model—a flexible integrated assessment tool for energy and climate change policy and scenario assessment. This tool builds on earlier efforts to link top-down and bottom-up models, and combines a macroeconomic energy demand model and a consumer-budget transport demand model with the technology-rich bottom-up energy and transport system model Energy Research and Investment Strategy (ERIS), and solves the models iteratively. Compared to previous efforts, ECLIPSE includes many new features, such as a more disaggregated production function, improved calibration and parameterization and separate modeling of passenger transport demand. The separate modeling of transportation makes ECLIPSE particularly well-suited to analyzing interactions between the transport sector and the broader energy market and economy. This paper presents results illustrating some features of the integrated model, compares technology deployment results with ECLIPSE and the bottom-up ERIS model, and briefly describes illustrative baseline and greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios to highlight some of the features of the framework outlined in this paper. A number of modeling and policy insights arising from this scenario analysis are discussed.     

National strategies for stimulating the use of bioenergy: policy instruments in Sweden

This study examines strategies of national energy policy, focusing on measures taken from the 1970s onwards for increasing the use of bioenergy in the Swedish energy system. Emphasis is given to analyses of how administrative policy instruments such as the Building Act, which regulates the use of natural resources, and the Wood Fibre Act have affected the woodfuel market for the district heating sector. The government can influence changes in three principal areas of the energy system: energy use, industrial structure, and energy production. The tools the government may use to exert its influence are: support to research and development, support to demonstration and information dissemination, administrative policy measures, and economic incentives. These instruments may be applied separately or in combination. Knowledge about how these instruments affect the development of the energy sector is fragmentary; it derives more from empirical observation than from analysis. A systematic evaluation of the separate and combined instruments that have been used would increase the possibility of correctly assessing the national energy policy. Nevertheless, practical experience and the analyses that do exist indicate that: (1) research and development are necessary prerequisites for developing the energy system even though results can not always be achieved in time to meet the need for fast results; (2) economic policy measures are comparatively easy to administer, and energy taxation has largely met its goals. With investment support, markets can be skewed and development can be hindered if existing technology is subsidised; (3) administrative policy instruments are cumbersome to administer and frequently do not achieve their purpose.     

Technical,environmental, and economic assessment of deploying advanced coal power technologies in the Chinese context

The goal of this study is to evaluate the technical, environmental, and economic dimensions of deploying advanced coal-fired power technologies in China. In particular, we estimate the differences in capital cost and overall cost of electricity (COE) for a variety of advanced coal-power technologies based on the technological and economic levels in 2006 in China. This paper explores the economic gaps between Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) and other advanced coal power technologies, and compares 12 different power plant configurations using advanced coal power technologies.     

Supply of biomass, bioenergy, and carbon mitigation: Method and application

This study develops an analytical framework for deriving the supply of biomass feedstock and subsequently electricity and CO₂ displacement generated from the biomass. This systematic approach minimizes the total cost of both feedstock and electricity production and involves the determination of the optimal power plant size and the derivation of the supply curves. The analytical framework is applied to the case of logging residues in the US. Both the theoretical and empirical results point to the importance of simultaneously considering feedstock production, energy conversion, and environmental benefits/costs in bioenergy project development, leading to useful policy implications for bioenergy development and deployment.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth: A cross-country analysis

Electricity has been the foundation of economic growth, and constitutes one of the vital infra-structural inputs in socio-economic development. The world faces a surge in demand for electricity that is driven by such powerful forces as population growth, extensive urbanization, industrialization, and the rise in the standard of living. This paper attempts to ascertain whether there is a systematic relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. To this end, we use a large set of data that spans 88 countries during the period, 1975–2004. A statistically significant inverted-U-shaped relationship between per-capita consumption of electricity and per-capita income is detected. Nevertheless, by using a purchasing power parity that is much higher than the per-capita income of all the countries in the world, the level of per-capita income is estimated at the peak point of per-capita electricity consumption to be $61,379 in 2000 constant international dollars. Moreover, we segment the sample into Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and non-OECD countries, and separately analyze the developed and developing countries. The separate estimation shows that even though the peak income is higher than the average per-capita income, a statistically significant inverted-U-shaped relationship is found in OECD and developed countries but not in non-OECD and developing countries.     

Clean development mechanism practice in China: Current status and possibilities for future regime

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is expected to help Annex I countries achieve their binding commitment through a cost-effective way and to promote sustainable development in non Annex I countries including China, which has been the largest host country in the CDM market. This paper aims at reviewing the CDM practice followed in China from institutional arrangement to the risk and barriers faced by the project owners. The analysis shows that a clear institutional setting and implementation strategy is crucial for the effective implementation of CDM projects. The geographic uneven distribution of the CDM project partly due to the uneven capacity building practice can be removed by knowledge transfer and the learning by doing method. The sectoral uneven distribution caused by lack of proper methodology and unsatisfied technology transfer caused by risk consideration are also discussed. The experience and lessons learned from the CDM practice in China will be meaningful and valuable not only for other slow starters like Africa to improve their capacity but also for the international negotiation of future CDM regime aiming at expanding the coverage of CDM and fostering technology transfer.     

Simulation and economic analysis of a solar-powered adsorption refrigerator using an evacuated tube for thermal insulation

A detailed analysis and simulation of heat transfer of an evacuated tube for a solar-powered adsorption refrigerator, including inhomogeneous radiation heat transfer between its inner and outer tubes, two adjacent tubes in the group, the tube and back plate, sunlight reflection on back plate, etc. has been carried out. Also, a new cost–effectiveness parameter is provided to assess the comprehensive performance of the system, and consequently optimums for the diameter of tubes and the distance between two adjacent tubes are investigated.