基于认知主导决策模型的陆军合同战术指挥员Agent建模策略

作战模拟系统中陆军指挥员模型建模十分重要,其决策不确定性强,功能实现复杂。针对这一问题,提出了基于认知主导决策模型的建模思想,并针对其计算机实现面临的决策者经验态势结构化描述、经验态势与当前态势自动匹配以及指挥员行为建模等重点难点问题提出了解决策略。     

一类面向多目标决策的分层情感认知模型

决策者的情感认知对于复杂多目标决策具有关键的作用, 为了能使计算机掌握决策者的决策情感认知规律, 提升计算机辅助多目标决策的能力, 提出一种融合了性格特征、心境状态和情感状态的多层情感认知模型. 描述决策者在处理复杂决策问题时的情感状态量化关系, 运用分层情感认知模型构建集感性和理性于一身的虚拟人, 代替决策者完成对多目标优化问题的交互决策求解. 实例分析验证了所提出模型的有效性.

     

舰艇智能兵力决策CBPN模型与实现研究

智能兵力作战决策支持是计算机生成兵力构建的重难点和核心内容,传统海战智能兵力作战决策系统难以满足决策知识空间增加对系统决策正确性和灵活性的要求,研究将Petri网建模方法与CXBR上下文推理方法相结合,提出了智能兵力CBPN图形化决策建模方法,依据舰艇智能兵力作战决策过程,分层构造了舰艇智能兵力作战行为模型,并建立了舰艇智能兵力决策支持的CBPN模型,实现了业务层和软件代码层解耦,最后构建了舰艇智能兵力的作战决策知识库.工程实现结果证明新方法能显著提高系统开发效率和智能兵力决策的灵活性,满足复杂作战仿真系统智能兵力作战决策支持需求.     

基于Multi—Agent的海上搜救仿真研究及应用

文章针对海上搜救仿真这种典型的综合仿真系统的特点,以降低综合仿真系统的复杂度和研发费用,并且提供最大程度的辅助决策支持为目的,提出了包括仿真建模结构、控制结构和智能模型的基子Multi-Agent的复杂系统智能仿真方法。基于Multi-Agent的综合系统智能仿真体系结构引入了一种新的建模与仿真的思想和方法,从而形成了一套独特的仿真建模体系结构,提高了建模与仿真的通用性、可重用性、互操作性以及计算机仿真技术的辅助决策能力。     

基于Analytica的作战决策分析模型构建与仿真

根据作战决策分析模型对建模平台的需求,简要介绍了Analytica建模平台的特点和功能,讨论了探索性分析方法、系统动力学方法、以及多分辨率建模方法等建模技术在Analytica平台下的应用,并通过一个示例介绍了基于Analytica作战决策分析模型的总体结构和仿真计算过程.建模和仿真结果表明,Analytica工具平台时于作战决策分析建模具有良好的适用性.     

合同战斗计算机辅助决策系统的体系结构

系统体系结构是计算机辅助决策系统设计中需要首先解决的问题之一,对系统的开发具有重要的指导意义.针对合同战斗领域的需求特点,以计算机辅助决策的概念为基础,运用系统分析方法,首先从整体结构上确定了辅助决策系统是作战指挥信息系统中的重要组成部分,分析了各部分之间的关系和具有的功能.在此基础上确定了合同战斗计算机辅助决策系统的总体结构,给出了直接支持指挥人员决策活动的情况分析子系统、方案评估子系统和计划推演子系统的基本结构.     

基于态势评估的实体决策行为模拟

作战实体由人员和装备组成，其中人具有能动性。因此在作战过程中，作战实体都具有一定的自主权，能根据战场当前的态势，对自己的行为做出决策。该文提出了作战实体基于态势评估的决策行为模型，给出了一种战场态势的表示方法，并设计了一种战场当前态势与模板库中态势进行匹配比较的算法。该模型模拟了作战实体在战场中的决策行为，为实现计算机生成兵力的自动决策，减少人的参与程度提供了一种有效方法，可以应用于评估论证型的模型系统。     

建模技术在作战辅助决策系统开发中的应用

针对海军某作战辅助决策系统业务规则复杂、功能齐全的特点,依照模型驱动开发(Modeling-driyen Development,MDD)的思想,采用UML建立该系统的需求和结构模型,使用相关工具构建基本框架.建模技术贯穿系统设计和实现的全过程,可以控制和管理前期文档与图表,使其与系统开发同步.     

基于属性理论的教师教学质量动态评估

在基于属性坐标学习和分析的静态教师教学质量评估的基础上提出了动态评估方法.目的是能够反映评估者的心理偏好以及随时间变化评估者决策的变化情况,通过人机对话,教师教学质量的动态变化的结果说明了计算机能对决策者的决策行为进行动态跟踪,从中猜测和估算出决策者心理评估标准随各种制约条件动态变化的过程,并使机器具有模拟决策者进行决策的功能.这就突破了传统的评估方法不能随意更改评判者心理权重的局限,更具有实用价值.     

支持快速计划拟制的指挥决策模型研究

指挥决策系统是辅助指挥员进行作战指挥决策的重要工具,信息化战争的特点对指挥决策支持系统的研制提出了新的挑战.针对现有的指挥决策系统工作效率不高等问题,提出了一种支持快速计划拟制的系统模型;该模型针对信息化条件下战争的特点,提供了对快速计划拟制的支持,提高了决策系统执行效率.基于该模型建立了一个指挥决策系统,对该系统的测试结果表明,系统具备快速反应能力.能够适应信息化条件下联合战役计划拟制的需求.     

An analysis of human and computer decision-making capabilities

Decision theory is a formal basis for considering human decision making. It has typically focused on humans and even if the decision-maker is assisted in the process, it is assumed that the assistance is provided by another human. However, in the computer age the decision-maker is assisted more often than not by a computer. Hence in this paper we explore the rationale for an integrated human-computer information processor and consider the information processing capabilities of the human and the computer within a formal model of decision-making. The analysis for the computer is done assuming it has at least the capabilities of a decision support system.     

复杂环境下的平行决策研究

针对复杂环境下决策的不确定性、动态性以及面对大量信息决策不知所措等系列问题,提出了复杂环境下的平行决策研究方法,利用平行决策的分解原理,将复杂决策分解为流决策、平行决策和交叉决策,不仅简化了复杂环境下的决策问题研究,而且从某种程度上能将信息优势适时地转化为决策优势,从而为系统决策获取最终的系统竞争优势提供一定的帮助。     

Research issues of Internet-integrated cognitive style

Cognitive style was once a popular research topic in the field of decision support systems (DSS), but because of the lack of usable results, it has not received much attention from the research community in recent years. This paper argues that it can be both promising and worthwhile to revive research efforts into cognitive style in the modern decision-making environment. Several reasons are offered to support this argument: First, the decision-making environment is now more integrated with technology, particularly the Internet, making it more uniform and easier to define. Second, the potential benefit of such studies is greater because more people are using Internet-based technology to make decisions. Third, data on the cognitive behavior of decision makers are captured and available for analysis because of the close integration between technology and the decision-making process. Research questions are raised and potential variables are proposed and discussed.     

Supply network design: Risk-averse or risk-neutral?

In this paper, we investigate a supply network design in supply chain with unreliable supply with application in the pharmaceutical industry. We consider two types of decision making policies: (1) a risk-neutral decision-making policy that is based on a cost-minimization approach and (2) a risk-averse policy wherein, rather than selecting facilities and identifying the pertinent supplier–consumer assignments that minimize the expected cost, the decision-maker uses a Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) approach to measure and quantify risk and to define what comprises a worst-case scenario. The CVaR methodology allows the decision-maker to specify to what extent worst-case scenarios should be avoided and the corresponding costs associated with such a policy. After introducing the underlying optimization models, we present computational analysis and statistical analysis to compare the results of the risk-averse and risk-neutral policies. In addition, we provide several managerial insights.     

Context-sensitive decision support systems in road safety

Enterprises often embed decision-making processes in procedures in order to address issues in all cases. However, procedures often lead to sub-optimal solutions for any specific decision. As a consequence, each actor develops the practice of addressing decision making in a specific context. Actors contextualize decision making when enterprises are obliged to decontextualize decision making to limit the number of procedures and cover whole classes of decision-making processes by generalization. Practice modeling is not easy because there are as many practices as contexts of occurrence. This chapter proposes a way to deal effectively with practices. Based on a conceptual framework for dealing with context, we present a context-based representation formalism for modeling decision making and its realization by actors. This formalism is called contextual graphs and is discussed using the example of modeling car drivers’ behaviors. This article is part of the “Handbook on Decision Support Systems” edited by Frada Burstein and Clyde W. Holsapple (2008) Springer.     

Contracting cleaning services in a European public underground transportation company with the aid of a DSS

This paper deals with the selection of a supplier for cleaning services in a European public underground transportation company as established in the European Community directives, where several conflicting criteria, such as improving service levels and reducing total service costs, must be taken into account simultaneously. The problem is analyzed in depth using the decision analysis methodology, and a decision support system, the Generic Multi-Attribute Analysis system, is used to allay the operational difficulties involved. This system can deal with incomplete information about decision-maker preferences, accounts for uncertainty about offer performance, and uses so-called decision-making with partial information to identify the best offer, taking advantage of imprecise inputs.     

The effect of system feedback and decision context on value-based decision-making behavior

Relatively few studies in MIS research have examined systems to support value-based decision-making behavior. The increasing complexity of the decision environment necessitates more reliance on personal values by decision-makers, thus making it an important component to study when considering the design of systems to aid decision-making. This paper describes an exploratory experiment that was conducted to determine how individual value-based decision-making behavior can be influenced by an information system through the use of value specific feedback. It also examines the role of decision context on value-based decisions. The results indicate that value-based decision-making behavior can be influenced and discusses operant theory and reactance theory as useful predictors of decision-maker response to feedback in different decision contexts.     

The effect of responsiveness of the control-decision system to the performance of FMS

In Flexible Manufacturing System (FMS), decision-making process is one of the key aspects for its performance enhancement, particularly for shop-floor control, where operation managers need to make a large number of control decisions. A term called ‘response-time’ in decision-making process has been defined in this study, which refers to a lead time in decision-making and its implementation. This paper contributes a methodology for decision-maker to study the decision-making process and identify a suitable decision-making approach, while considering critical factors such as decision automation levels, routing flexibility levels, and control strategies. Considering the complexity in modelling an FMS with routing flexibility levels, control strategies (sequencing and dispatching rules), and decision-making process with information system, computer simulation modelling has been employed to study the makespan performance. The results show that decision-making process with response-time for FMS control performs as good as with the real-time control when routing flexibility level is low. Furthermore, under some specific situations, it even outperforms the real-time control. This research gives insight to decision-maker to identify whether a decision system with response-time will be more suitable and economically justified, or real-time decision-making system is more appropriate.     

Management of uncertain pairwise comparisons in AHP through probabilistic concepts

Fast and judicious decision-making is paramount for the success of many activities and processes. However, various degrees of difficulty may affect the achievement of effective and optimal solutions. Decisions should ideally meet the best trade-off among as many of the involved factors as possible, especially in the case of complex problems. Substantial cognitive and technical skills are indispensable, while not always sufficient, to carry out optimal evaluations. One of the most common causes of wrong decisions derives from uncertainty and vagueness in making forecasts or attributing judgments. The literature shows numerous efforts towards the optimization and modeling of uncertain contexts by means of probabilistic approaches. This paper proposes the use of probability theory to estimate uncertain expert judgments within the framework of the analytic hierarchy process and, more specifically, within a linearization scheme developed by the authors. After describing the necessary probabilistic concepts of interest, the main results are developed. These results can be summarized as using various kinds of random variables with uncertainty embodied in undecided pairwise comparisons. A case study focused on the maintenance management of an industrial water distribution system exemplifies the approach.     

基于元模型的装备战斗损伤组合仿真系统

针对装备战斗损伤组合模型在构建过程中可组合性差的问题,提出基于元模型的装备战斗损伤组合仿真系统开发方法。通过分析模型的构建要素,设计装备战斗损伤模型的二元对抗结构,参考元模型构建的基本过程,给出元模型构建决策方法,在此基础上设计开发组合仿真系统,包括装备战斗损伤机理元模型库、部件级战斗损伤元模型库及装备级战斗损伤元模型库。实验结果证明,该系统可有效组合不同层面的装备战斗损伤模型,实现不同分辨率下仿真结果的综合输出。 关键词：元模型;战斗损伤;组合仿真;二元对抗结构;解聚;聚合