住宅的有效需求与供给

<正>国家把扩大内需作为我国今后相当长一段时期内的经济发展方针,并把培育住宅业成为新的经济增长点作为扩大内需的重要举措。据有关专家分析,发展住宅业可带动建材、装饰、家具、钢铁、化工等十几个行业的发展。而要发展住宅业,就必须做好增加住宅供给和扩大住宅需求两方面的文章。只有当住宅供给量和需求量同步增长,并达到新的均衡时,住宅市场才能真正被激活,住宅建设的经济增长点作用才能真正凸现。     

构建合理供给结构 培育大众住宅市场

构建合理供给结构培育大众住宅市场●彭岩从统计数字看，去年广东房地产市场比较平淡，全省和部分城市销量有所增加，另一些城市则有所下降，空置量上升，不少开发企业面临较大困难。由于市场平淡，部分城市商品房销量下降，有的市（如深圳）虽销量上升，但竣工面积大于销...     

住宅消费层次分析

在买方市场条件下 ,以消费者消费需求为中心 ,是住宅市场健康发展的保证 ,也是房地产企业生存和发展的基本前提。我国的住宅市场 ,一方面潜在需求很大 ,另一方面空置商品房逐年递增。其最根本的原因在于住房的供应档次和消费者的住房消费需求层次不相吻合 ,要使住宅市场健康发展 ,迫切需要研究消费需求的层次。     

国外住宅市场供给比较研究

国外住宅市场供给比较研究●张协奎摘要：本文通过对一些经济发达国家和发展中国家住宅市场供给的比较分析，提出了促进住宅产业发展，增加住宅市场供给的若干对策，指出根据我国国情，目前应在加强公房建设的前提下，提倡并鼓励高收入者自己建房和买房，并建议政府应在土...     

建立以市场为基础的住房制度 启动住宅消费

住宅不仅是人们赖以生存和发展的物质基础,而且是最重要、最昂贵的消费资料,是一种重要的消费支出。 “安居”才能“乐业”,改善居住条件成为广大城乡居民继解决温饱之后的第一需要和最为关注的问题。我国自1988年将房地产业作为国民经济的支柱产业后,经历了几次起落,在传统计划经济体制种种因素的影响下,住宅业的消费市场一直难以启动。从总体上看,城市住宅依然没有摆脱福利分配的地位。大量资金沉淀在住房中,影响了房地产业的健康发展,使住宅业难以真正成为对国民经济的发展具有带动作用的支柱产业。为了加快普通住宅商品化步伐,使住宅逐步成为城镇居民新的消费点和国民经济     

大连市住宅市场潜在需求信心指数研究

为了量化消费者购房信心,预测房地产市场走势,文章基于消费者情绪指数法,设计了大连住宅市场潜在需求调查问卷,并分别于2011 年大连春季房交会和夏季房交会组织实地调查,在通过信度和效度检验证明问卷可靠性的基础上,构建并计算了大连住宅市场潜在需求信心指数。研究结果表明当前大连住宅市场潜在需求不太旺盛,消费者观望情绪较浓,房地产开发商和政府应针对市场实际情况,实施谨慎的投资决策和遏制房价快速上涨的宏观调控。     

基于人口视角的南京市住宅市场"需求缺口"研究

在人口分析的基础上,对2000年南京市住宅市场的"需求缺口"进行定量研究.研究结果显示,2000年南京市住宅市场的"需求缺口"高达4386.87万m2."需求缺口"是南京市住房价格不断上涨的主要原因,宏观调控政策的侧重点应为大幅增加住房供给.     

《上海跨世纪住宅需求研究》简介

《上海跨世纪住宅需求研究》课题由上海社会科学院房地产业研究中心、上海市房地产交易中心、上海市房产经济学会和上海市统计局投资处承担调研。该课题是提供给市政府作为编制住宅发展计划的重要依据,据此实行有根据的住宅政策和市     

A Multiple Error-Correction Model of Housing Supply

This paper considers supply dynamics in the context of the Irish residential market. The analysis, in a multiple error-correction framework, reveals that although developers did respond to disequilibrium in supply, the rate of adjustment was relatively slow. In contrast, however, disequilibrium in demand did not impact upon supply, suggesting that inelastic supply conditions could explain the prolonged nature of the boom in the Irish market. Increased elasticity in the later stages of the boom may have been a contributory factor in the extent of the house price falls observed in recent years.     

Housing Careers,House Price Dispersion and the Housing Market Multiplier

Housing markets reflect our housing consumption profile over the life cycle. As we age, marry and have kids, we seek larger dwellings and to a greater extent owner-occupied housing. The up-trading process has two key characteristics: first, it is equity induced. Second, it impacts both the supply and demand sides of housing markets. This is our point of departure. The paper combines a housing ladder with a house price index to show how up-trading amplifies shocks and introduces a multiplier into the housing market. The interplay between market segments results in up-trading induced price dispersion and a price response in the segments on top of the ladder that exceeds those of segments further down, even when shocks are equal across market segments. Finally, as up-trading impacts both housing supply and housing demand, even balanced shocks to net demand might impact house prices. Focusing on different market segments, shocks to demand might have both direct (the size effect) and indirect (the up-trading effect) effects on the house price index. This paper highlights policy options at a finer level when in need of stimulating or dampening house price cycles.     

基于市场需求的住宅产业化发展思路探索

住宅产业化作为经济与社会发展的一项重要举措,要找到突破点,找到一条符合市场需求的发展之路。结合重庆市近年来的人口、人均住宅消费等相关发展数据,分析在市场经济环境下发展住宅产业化的必要性与重要性,同时分析了制约住宅产业化发展的主要因素,提出推进住宅产业化发展的主要思路。     

From Low Demand to Rising Aspirations: Housing Market Renewal within Regional and Neighbourhood Regeneration Policy

The paper draws on qualitative empirical evidence from studies of regeneration in North-East England, and seeks to link housing market renewal to wider regeneration issues at regional and neighbourhood levels. It suggests that the discourse on, and justification of, housing market renewal has shifted from a specific concern with low housing demand and abandonment to a more generalised modernisation agenda seeking the restructuring of low-income neighbourhoods in terms not only of housing quality but also of tenure and population. This modernisation discourse is strongly linked to a regional economic regeneration agenda. It is argued that despite claims for the holistic nature of market renewal policies, it seems unlikely that these will improve the economic circumstances of existing residents as opposed to serving regional economic development objectives. Moreover, the more sweeping change implied by the modernisation agenda may reinforce the tension at neighbourhood level between community-led neighbourhood renewal and the restructuring of tenure and population through market renewal.     

新常态下县域住房市场供求研究——以新疆昌吉州为例

县域住房市场对我国的城镇化起到重要的推动作用,但2014年以来遭遇比大中城市更为严重的市场萧条。以新疆昌吉州为研究对象,总结新常态县域住房市场的供求特点,分析影响因素,提出加强宏观引导、培育市场新需求、拓展多元化融资渠道等县域住房市场发展建议。     

沈阳市住房刚性需求与供需平衡分析

界定住房刚性需求包括拆迁安置住房、新婚夫妇住房、新增外来人口住房等纯粹住房刚性需求和改善性住房需求两部分,测算沈阳市各项住房刚性需求量,并分析沈阳市住房供需平衡状况。     

The Limits and Potentials of the Housing Market Enabling Paradigm: An Evaluation of China's Housing Policies from 1998 to 2011

This paper examines the housing policies in China in the last 14 years in the context of the international debate on the World Bank's housing market enabling strategy to improve low-income housing provision in developing countries. A review of China's urban housing outcomes reveals housing price inflation and shortage of affordable housing in the fast expanding housing market. The paper analyzes policies to increase both demand for and supply of housing and argues that these policies have contributed to worsening affordability. This situation has been exacerbated by problems in the institutional framework managing the housing sector. The paper concludes that market enabling alone is not sufficient to achieve a satisfactory housing outcome for low- and middle-income groups in Chinese cities. It advocates more effective and direct public intervention for enhancing social housing provision and tightening market regulation to address both market and government failures to improve housing conditions for lower income groups.     

供需关系对建筑产品市场价格形成的影响分析

工程量清单计价是为了便于市场竞争形成价格而进行计价的一种模式,不是说推行了工程量清单计价模式,建筑产品的市场价格就能自然形成。建筑产品是一种特殊的商品,其价格应遵循价值规律和市场规律。本文从供需关系入手,分析建筑产品价格形成的影响因素。     

Obligations and Expectations: Perceived Relationship between Transnational Housing Investment and Housing Consumption Decisions among Ghanaian Immigrants in Canada

Transnational housing investment is a pervasive practice among many migrant groups residing in various destination countries; including Ghanaian migrants living in Canada. For many, the need to engage in transnational housing investment is beyond the standard rationale and has two prime significance; symbolic and practical utility. Engagement in this endeavour requires substantial financial commitments over extensive periods of time with potential consequences for various aspects of immigrants’ lives in their destination areas including their housing consumption. This paper examines perceived influence of such long-term commitments on housing consumption decisions among Ghanaian immigrants in the Greater Toronto Area using in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. The findings show that although engagement in transnational housing is associated with constraints on immigrants’ decision to enter homeownership, type of dwelling to rent and the neighbourhood choices, it was also associated with a sense of pride, success and integration into Canadian society. The paper concludes that a broader theoretical discussion of housing integration is necessary. Specifically, it calls for a redefinition of the measures of immigrant housing integration in particular – which narrowly considers destination parameters – to one that includes transnational factors as critical in moving the debate on understanding immigrant integration in general.     

Housing Consumption and Financial Policy Instruments in the Netherlands

Reforming the system of financial instruments on the housing market is a recurring issue. This paper constructs a model explaining household behaviour, in particular the effects of prices and income on the tenure choice and the level of housing consumption. It analyses the effects that may be expected of fundamental changes of financial policy instruments in the Netherlands: (1) a conversion of below market rents to market rent levels; (2) a switch from the current fiscal system for owner-occupiers to a general lump sum tax reduction; and (3) a combination of these measures. The results indicate that the initial disadvantageous effects on the housing costs are large, but the behavioural response of households and the expected changes of price levels considerably reduce or even eliminate longrun effects. Since the effects may be substantial for individual households, a well-considered transition path, as is done in other countries, should be used.