Weibull model selection for reliability modelling

A large number of models have been derived from the two-parameter Weibull distribution and are referred to as Weibull models. They exhibit a wide range of shapes for the density and hazard functions, which makes them suitable for modelling complex failure data sets. The WPP and IWPP plot allows one to determine in a systematic manner if one or more of these models are suitable for modelling a given data set. This paper deals with this topic.     

Enterprise modelling: from early languages to models transformation

During the last 30 years, enterprise modelling has been recognised as an efficient tool to externalise the knowledge of companies in order to understand their operations, to analyse their running and to design new systems from several points of view: functions, processes, decisions, resources and information technology. This paper aims at describing the long evolution of enterprise modelling techniques as well as one of the future challenges of these techniques: the transformation of enterprise models. So, in a first part, the paper describes the evolution of enterprise modelling techniques from the divergence era to the convergence period. In a second time, the paper focuses on the recent advances in the use of enterprise models through model-driven approaches, interoperability problem-solving and simulation, all these advances having the same characteristic to use the transformation of enterprise models.     

More MILP models for hybrid flow shop scheduling problem and its extended problems

With the rapid development of computer technology and related softwares for mathematical models, mathematical modelling of scheduling problems is receiving growing attention from researchers. In this work, the hybrid flow shop scheduling problem with unrelated parallel machines (HFSP-UPM) with the objective aimed to minimise the makespan is studied. According to the characteristics of the HFSP-UPM, eight mixed integer linear programming (MILP) models are formulated in order to obtain optimal solutions based on different modelling ideas. Then, these models are extended to solve HFSP-UPM with sequence-dependent setup times (HFSP-UPM-SDST), no-wait HFSP-UPM (HFSP-UPM-NW) and HFSP-UPM with blocking (HFSP-UPM-B). All the proposed models and the existing model are detailedly compared and evaluated under three aspects namely modelling process, size complexity and computational complexity. Numerical experiments show that MILP models dependent on diverse modelling ideas perform very differently. The model developed based on stage precedence is the best one and should be given preference in future applications. In addition, the proposed models of HFSP-UPM-NW and HFSP-UPM-B improve several best known solutions for the test instances in the existing literature.     

Handling uncertainties in modelling manufacturing processes with hybrid swarm intelligence

Seldom has research regarding manufacturing process modelling considered the two common types of uncertainties which are caused by randomness as in material properties and by fuzziness as in the inexact knowledge in manufacturing processes. Accuracies of process models can be downgraded if these uncertainties are ignored in the development of process models. In this paper, a hybrid swarm intelligence algorithm for developing process models which intends to achieve significant accuracies for manufacturing process modelling by addressing these two uncertainties is proposed. The hybrid swarm intelligence algorithm first applies the mechanism of particle swarm optimisation to generate structures of process models in polynomial forms, and then it applies the mechanism of fuzzy least square regression algorithm to determine fuzzy coefficients on polynomials so as to address the two uncertainties, fuzziness and randomness. Apart from addressing the two uncertainties, the common feature in manufacturing processes, nonlinearities between process parameters, which are not inevitable in manufacturing processes, can also be addressed. The effectiveness of the hybrid swarm algorithm is demonstrated by modelling of the solder paste dispensing process.     

Analysis of free edge effects in composite laminates

Extensive work has been done in the field of free edge effects in composite laminates. The present paper reviews the modelling as well as the experimental work on this class of boundary value problems. The modelling techniques developed by a number of investigators and the experimental validation of the predictions made through these models are discussed.     

WebML modelling in UML

In recent years, we have witnessed how the Web Engineering community has started using the standard unified modelling language (UML) notation, techniques and supporting tools for modelling Web systems, which has led to the adaptation to UML of several existing modelling languages, notations and development processes. This interest for being MOF and UML-compliant arises from the increasing need to interoperate with other notations and tools, and to exchange data and models, thus facilitating reuse. WebML, like any other domain-specific language, allows one to express in a precise and natural way the concepts and mechanisms of its domain of reference. However, it cannot fully interoperate with other notations, nor be integrated with other model-based tools. As a solution to these requirements, a UML 2.0 profile for WebML which allows WebML models to be used in conjunction with other notations and modelling tools has been described. The paper also evaluates UML 2.0 as a platform for Web modelling and identifies some key requirements for making this version of the standard more usable.     

Constitutive modelling of powder compaction and sintering

In this paper, the current status of modelling the compaction and sintering of particulate materials is reviewed. Recent theoretical and experimental studies are described. It is argued that models used to design processes must be robust and simple, but they must be based on a sound understanding of the underlying micromechanics. The models can then be extrapolated from the laboratory to the design environment with confidence. An important stage in this process is the identification of the dominant micromechanical events and the development of constitutive relationships which accurately model these events. Where appropriate, deficiencies in the current models are described and areas where additional modelling is required are identified.     

MADOR: a new tool to calculate decrease of effective doses in human after DTPA therapy

Abstract models have been developed to describe dissolution of Pu/Am/Cm after internal contamination by inhalation or wound, chelation of actinides by diethylene triamine penta acetic acid (DTPA) in different retention compartments and excretion of actinide-DTPA complexes. After coupling these models with those currently used for dose calculation, the modelling approach was assessed by fitting human data available in IDEAS database. Good fits were obtained for most studied cases, but further experimental studies are needed to validate some modelling hypotheses as well as the range of parameter values. From these first results, radioprotection tools are being developed: MAnagement of DOse Reduction after DTPA therapy.     

Modelling the dispersion of flashing jets using CFD

Risk assessments related to industrial environments where gas is kept in liquid form under high pressure rely on the results from predictive tools. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is one such predictive tool and it is currently used for a range of applications. One of the most challenging application areas is the simulation of multiphase flows resulting from a breach or leakage in a pressurised pipeline or a vessel containing liquefied gas. The present paper deals with the modelling of the post-flashing scenario of a jet emanating from a circular orifice. In addition to being based on the equations governing fluid flow, the models used are those related to turbulence, droplet transport, evaporation, break-up and coalescence. Some of these models are semi-empirical and based on the data from applications other than flashing. However, these are the only models that are currently available in commercial codes and that would be used by consulting engineers for the type of modelling discussed above, namely the dispersion of a flashing release. A method for calculating inlet boundary conditions after flashing is also presented and issues related to such calculations are discussed. The results from a number of CFD based studies are compared with available experimental results. The results show that whilst a number of features of the experimental results can be reproduced by the CFD model, there are also a number of important shortcomings. The shortcomings are highlighted and discussed. Finally, an optimum approach to modelling of this type is suggested and methods to overcome modelling difficulties are proposed.     

Impact of modelling approximations in supply chain analysis – an experimental study

This paper presents a study of the comparison of the quality of results obtained at different levels of detail using a supply chain simulation. Analysis of supply chain is typically carried out using aggregated information to maintain the level of complexity of the simulation model at a manageable level. Advances in simulation have provided the ability to build comprehensive (detailed), modular models. The quantitative effect of detailed modelling on the corresponding analysis is investigated in this paper. A three-echelon supply chain is analysed using simulation models of varying levels of detail. Using each of these models, four sets of intensive experiments are performed. The first experiment intends to test whether the supply chain dynamics themselves depend on the modelling accuracy that represents the supply chain. The second and third experiments are conducted to test whether the effectiveness of the strategies employed to reduce the supply chain dynamics vary depending on the type (different detail) of model representing the supply chain. In the fourth experiment, statistical techniques are employed to identify which modelling aspect has the most influence on the supply chain dynamics. It is found that the approximations used in modelling, such as delays and capacity, have more impact on the outcome of supply chain analysis than end customer demand. Evidence that both the basic problem (supply chain dynamics) and the solution (strategy to reduce the dynamics) are greatly influenced by the modelling accuracy are presented.     

Designing the spatial experience

3D and often full-size modelling is common practice in product designing. However, these models are usually made for final evaluation purposes after the design has been developed on the drawing board. This paper describes the use of 3D full-size modelling as a technique to be used from the very start of the design process, in conjunction with a design approach which emphasises the user's experience of the product.     

A comparison of inventory cost reduction strategies in a JIT manufacturing system

Although many companies have found JIT manufacturing to be a very effective manufacturing strategy, few models have been developed which can help direct JIT efforts. This article discusses some of the problems with modelling JIT manufacturing, it describes some simple models of inventory costs in a JIT system and it uses these models to evaluate alternative inventory-cost reduction strategies in a printed circuit board (PCB) assembly system.     

Underestimating the bullwhip effect: a simulation study of the decomposability assumption

We investigate the assumption of decomposability as it pertains to modelling the bullwhip effect in multi-stage supply chains. Decomposing a multi-stage supply chain into a set of node pairs, each of which can be efficiently represented with a two-stage model, is a common modelling technique when analysing the bullwhip effect in supply chains. This approach depends on the validity of the decomposability assumption since most supply chains are coupled systems that are a logical fit for singular, or ‘monolithic’, multi-stage models. We utilise a simulation study to compare decomposition-based supply-chain models with monolithic models and determine if decomposition modelling significantly alters the predicted severity of the bullwhip effect. We find decomposition-based models exhibit a significantly lower level of bullwhip effect than monolithic models of the same supply chain. The systematic underestimation of the bullwhip effect by decomposition-based models indicates that the assumption of decomposability is flawed. Our study also confirms previous work showing the significant benefit of using actual, instead of approximate, lead-time demand information. We discuss implications for supply-chain modelling, supply-chain design, and data collection.     

Generic Linking of Finite Element Models for Non-Linear Static and Global Dynamic Analyses of Aircraft Structures

Depending on the type of analysis, Finite Element (FE) models of different fidelity are necessary. Creating these models manually is a labor intensive task. This paper discusses two approaches for generating FE models of different fidelity from a single reference FE model. The models are created with a single modelling and meshing toolkit. These different fidelity models are created for use with global-local non-linear static analysis and for use with dynamic linear sub-structuring reduction method. Efficiency of the developed approaches is demonstrated via non-linear static and modal analysis of a carbon-fiber stiffened panel.     

Surface-seeking radionuclides in the skeleton: current approach and recent developments in biokinetic modelling for humans and beagles

In the last decade, the biokinetics of surface-seeking radionuclides in the skeleton has been the object of several studies. Investigations were carried out to determine the kinetics of plutonium and americium in the skeleton of humans and beagles. As a result of these investigations, in recent years the models presented by ICRP in Publication 67 for humans were partially revised, particularly the skeletal part. The aim of the present work is to present recent developments in the biokinetic modelling of surface-seeking radionuclides (plutonium and americium) in beagles and humans. Various assumptions and physiological interpretations of the different approaches to the biokinetic modelling of the skeleton are discussed. Current ICRP concepts and skeleton modelling of plutonium and americium in humans are compared to the latest developments in biokinetic modelling in beagles.     

Use of woven CFRP for externally pressurized domes

Sensitivity of bifurcation buckling, first-ply failure (FPF) and last-ply failure (LPF) to the different modelling methods of woven cloth is examined numerically for a range of torispherical shells. Axisymmetric and two two-dimensional models are used for externally pressurized multi-ply domes. In the first two-dimensional model, angles between warp and weft directions on torispheres are obtained through an optical projection of an initially orthogonal woven net. In the second type of modelling, a planar/orthogonal mapping is preserved on the torispherical geometry. Bifurcation buckling seems to be insensitive to the method of modelling. Results for FPF show that differences between axisymmetric and planar models can be as high as 50%, whilst the differences for optical and planar models can reach 30%. The magnitude of LPF pressures is also sensitive to the two-dimensional modelling method adopted. Ultimate collapse loads, associated with LPFs and based on optical modelling, are up to 30% higher than those obtained for planar modelling for carbon cloth.     

From Rasch scores to regression

Rasch models provide a framework for measurement and modelling latent variables. Having measured a latent variable in a population a comparison of groups will often be of interest. For this purpose the use of observed raw scores will often be inadequate because these lack interval scale properties. This paper compares two approaches to group comparison: linear regression models using estimated person locations as outcome variables and latent regression models based on the distribution of the score.     

Design of elastic components of nano- and microelectromechanical systems

The modelling of elastic components of nano- and microelectromechanical systems during design is discussed. A flow chart for these models is proposed for establishing the patterns and relationships among different parameters of these systems and finding an optimum solution.     

Tensile strength and failure simulation of simplified spot weld models

A simple model for spot weld joints is desirable in body-in-white automotive structures which contains thousands of them. Hence, comparative performance and failure prediction study of six simplified spot weld models in terms of their geometric and constitutive properties are presented in this paper. The stiffness characteristics of these models under tensile loading condition were compared with the experimental results. It was found that the current spot weld modelling practice in the automotive industry predict the strength with 45.33% of error. To simulate the joint failure a material damage criterion correlating ultimate tensile strength of material was implemented in the developed models. The comparative study with respect to the accuracy was also related with the computational cost incurred by the different models. Hence, suitable modelling conditions to design a finite element model for spot welded joints are established which is very simple to develop, relatively cheap in terms of computational costs but yet predicts reasonably accurate results.