基于并行C4.5的铁路零散白货客户流失预测研究

为了提高铁路零散白货客户流失预测的准确性和高效性,根据铁路零散白货客户的流失特征,提出了基于CDL模型的客户流失识别方法,在此基础上,针对数据量大的问题,提出了基于Hadoop并行框架的C4.5决策树客户流失预测模型。通过仿真实验,证明该模型具有较好的准确性和预测能力,并且随着样本数量的增加,Hadoop并行框架的效率得到了明显的提升,且不影响客户流失预测模型的准确性和预测能力。     

Integrating the voice of customers through call center emails into a decision support system for churn prediction

We studied the problem of optimizing the performance of a DSS for churn prediction. In particular, we investigated the beneficial effect of adding the voice of customers through call center emails – i.e. textual information – to a churn-prediction system that only uses traditional marketing information. We found that adding unstructured, textual information into a conventional churn-prediction model resulted in a significant increase in predictive performance. From a managerial point of view, this integrated framework helps marketing-decision makers to better identify customers most prone to switch. Consequently, their customer retention campaigns can be targeted more effectively because the prediction method is better at detecting those customers who are likely to leave.     

Employee churn prediction

Customer churn is a notorious problem for most industries, as loss of a customer affects revenues and brand image and acquiring new customers is difficult. Reliable predictive models for customer churn could be useful in devising customer retention plans. We survey and compare some major machine learning techniques that have been used to build predictive customer churn models. Employee churn (or attrition) closely related but not identical to customer churn is similarly painful for an organization, leading to disruptions, customer dissatisfaction and time and efforts lost in finding and training replacement. We present a case study that we carried out for building and comparing predictive employee churn models. We also propose a simple value model for employees that can be used to identify how many of the churned employees were “valuable”. This work has the potential for designing better employee retention plans and improving employee satisfaction.     

服务号码捆绑特征在离网预测系统中的应用

用户流失问题是电信运营商面临的亟待解决的问题,针对不同的场景,业界研究开发了多个用户离网预测系统。服务号码捆绑指用户在使用运营商服务期间,与银行、电商、便利店等第三方服务提供商通过绑定手机号产生联系。通过研究发现用户在服务存续期间普遍会绑定多种第三方服务提供商,这些商家会不定时给用户推送短信,当用户即将流失时,多数用户会逐渐取消这类服务的绑定。因此,服务号码捆绑特征对于离网用户的甄别起到了重要的作用。采用随机森林算法构建离网预测模型,利用逻辑回归算法对服务号码捆绑特征进行降维,并加入模型,进行离网用户分析,从而辅助决策者制订相应的客户维挽策略,降低客户离网率。实验结果表明,服务号码软捆绑特征能够提高系统的分析预测能力。     

Improved churn prediction in telecommunication industry by analyzing a large network

Customer retention in telecommunication companies is one of the most important issues in customer relationship management, and customer churn prediction is a major instrument in customer retention. Churn prediction aims at identifying potential churning customers. Traditional approaches for determining potential churning customers are based only on customer personal information without considering the relationship among customers. However, the subscribers of telecommunication companies are connected with other customers, and network properties among people may affect the churn. For this reason, we proposed a new procedure of the churn prediction by examining the communication patterns among subscribers and considering a propagation process in a network based on call detail records which transfers churning information from churners to non-churners. A fast and effective propagation process is possible through community detection and through setting the initial energy of churners (the amount of information transferred) differently in churn date or centrality. The proposed procedure was evaluated based on the performance of the prediction model trained with a social network feature and traditional personal features.     

Computer assisted customer churn management: State-of-the-art and future trends

A business incurs much higher charges when attempting to win new customers than to retain existing ones. As a result, much research has been invested into new ways of identifying those customers who have a high risk of churning. However, customer retention efforts have also been costing organisations large amounts of resource. In response to these issues, the next generation of churn management should focus on accuracy. A variety of churn management techniques have been developed as a response to the above requirements. The focus of this paper is to review some of the most popular technologies that have been identified in the literature for the development of a customer churn management platform. The advantages and disadvantages of the identified technologies are discussed, and a discussion on the future research directions is offered.     

Customer segmentation based on survival character

Customer Segmentation is an increasingly pressing issue in today’s over-competitive commercial area. More and more literatures have researched the application of data mining technology in customer segmentation, and achieved sound effectives. But most of them segment customer only by single data mining technology from a special view, rather than from systematical framework. Furthermore, one of the key purposes of customer segmentation is customer retention. Although previous segment methods may identify which group needs more care, it is unable to identify customer churn trend for taking different actions. This paper focus on proposing a customer segmentation framework based on data mining and constructs a new customer segmentation method based on survival character. The new customer segmentation method consists of two steps. Firstly, with K-means clustering arithmetic, customers are clustered into different segments in which customers have the similar survival characters (churn trend). Secondly, each cluster’s survival/hazard function is predicted by survival analyzing, the validity of clustering is tested and customer churn trend is identified. The method mentioned above has been applied to a dataset from China Telecom, which acquired some useful management measures and suggestions. Some propositions for further research is also suggested.     

基于谱回归特征降维的客户流失预测

针对于大样本数据的客户流失预测,从特征有效表达的角度,提出了一种基于谱回归特征约简的预测模型.模型在原始客户特征基础上,利用基于谱回归的流形降维,建立可区分性的低维特征空间,在此之上采用支持向量机实现客户流失的二分类.通过在网络客户和传统电信客户两种不同数据集上的大样本实验,并与不同分类器、不同特征约简或选择方法的对比,证明了该方法的有效性.     

基于不平衡数据集的客户流失预测研究*

目前客户流失预测面临的主要问题之一就是类不平衡性(class imbalance)。针对这个问题,首先应用欠抽样法(undersampling)处理客户流失数据降低不平衡性,再应用C4.5D、C4.5N、RIPPER、NaiveBayes和RandomForest机器学习方法对客户流失进行预测。实验结果表明,欠抽样法是在牺牲负类样本预测精度的前提下,提高正类预测精度,于是采用重复抽样法(resampling)来弥补欠抽样法的缺陷,减少负类样本中含有大量有用信息的丢失,实验结果证明了这种方法的正确性和有效性     

Reconciling performance and interpretability in customer churn prediction using ensemble learning based on generalized additive models

To build a successful customer churn prediction model, a classification algorithm should be chosen that fulfills two requirements: strong classification performance and a high level of model interpretability. In recent literature, ensemble classifiers have demonstrated superior performance in a multitude of applications and data mining contests. However, due to an increased complexity they result in models that are often difficult to interpret. In this study, GAMensPlus, an ensemble classifier based upon generalized additive models (GAMs), in which both performance and interpretability are reconciled, is presented and evaluated in a context of churn prediction modeling. The recently proposed GAMens, based upon Bagging, the Random Subspace Method and semi-parametric GAMs as constituent classifiers, is extended to include two instruments for model interpretability: generalized feature importance scores, and bootstrap confidence bands for smoothing splines. In an experimental comparison on data sets of six real-life churn prediction projects, the competitive performance of the proposed algorithm over a set of well-known benchmark algorithms is demonstrated in terms of four evaluation metrics. Further, the ability of the technique to deliver valuable insight into the drivers of customer churn is illustrated in a case study on data from a European bank. Firstly, it is shown how the generalized feature importance scores allow the analyst to identify the relative importance of churn predictors in function of the criterion that is used to measure the quality of the model predictions. Secondly, the ability of GAMensPlus to identify nonlinear relationships between predictors and churn probabilities is demonstrated.     

Improving customer attrition prediction by integrating emotions from client/company interaction emails and evaluating multiple classifiers

Predicting customer churn with the purpose of retaining customers is a hot topic in academy as well as in today’s business environment. Targeting the right customers for a specific retention campaign carries a high priority. This study focuses on two aspects in which churn prediction models could be improved by (i) relying on customer information type diversity and (ii) choosing the best performing classification technique. (i) With the upcoming interest in new media (e.g. blogs, emails, ...), client/company interactions are facilitated. Consequently, new types of information are available which generate new opportunities to increase the prediction power of a churn model. This study contributes to the literature by finding evidence that adding emotions expressed in client/company emails increases the predictive performance of an extended RFM churn model. As a substantive contribution, an in-depth study of the impact of the emotionality indicators on churn behavior is done. (ii) This study compares three classification techniques – i.e. Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines and Random Forests – to distinguish churners from non-churners. This paper shows that Random Forests is a viable opportunity to improve predictive performance compared to Support Vector Machines and Logistic Regression which both exhibit an equal performance.     

Dynamic modelling of customer preferences for product design using DENFIS and opinion mining

Previous studies mainly employed customer surveys to collect survey data for understanding customer preferences on products and developing customer preference models. In reality, customer preferences on products could change over time. Thus, the time series data of customer preferences under different time periods should be collected for the modelling of customer preferences. However, it is difficult to obtain the time series data based on customer surveys because of long survey time and substantial resources involved. In recent years, a large number of online customer reviews of products can be found on various websites, from which the time series data of customer preferences can be extracted easily. Some previous studies have attempted to analyse customer preferences on products based on online customer reviews. However, two issues were not addressed in previous studies which are the fuzziness of the sentiment expressed by customers existing in online reviews and the modelling of customer preferences based on the time series data obtained from online reviews. In this paper, a new methodology for dynamic modelling of customer preferences based on online customer reviews is proposed to address the two issues which mainly involves opinion mining and dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system (DENFIS). Opinion mining is adopted to analyze online reviews and perform sentiment analysis on the reviews under different time periods. With the mined time series data and the product attribute settings of reviewed products, a DENFIS approach is introduced to perform the dynamic modelling of customer preferences. A case study is used to illustrate the proposed methodology. The results of validation tests indicate that the proposed DENFIS approach outperforms various adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approaches in the dynamic modelling of customer preferences in terms of the mean relative error and variance of errors. In addition, the proposed DENFIS approach can provide both crisp and fuzzy outputs that cannot be realized by using existing ANFIS and conventional DENFIS approaches.     

CRM at a pay-TV company: Using analytical models to reduce customer attrition by targeted marketing for subscription services

The early detection of potential churners enables companies to target these customers using specific retention actions, and subsequently increase profits. This analytical CRM (Customer Relationship Management) approach is illustrated using real-life data of a European pay-TV company. Their very high churn rate has had a devastating effect on their customer base. This paper first develops different churn-prediction models: the introduction of Markov chains in churn prediction, and a random forest model are benchmarked to a basic logistic model.The most appropriate model is subsequently used to target those customers with a high churn probability in a field experiment. Three alternative courses of marketing action are applied: giving free incentives, organizing special customer events, obtaining feedback on customer satisfaction through questionnaires. The results of this field experiment show that profits can be doubled using our churn-prediction model. Moreover, profits vary enormously with respect to the selected retention action, indicating that a customer satisfaction questionnaire yields the best results, a phenomenon known in the psychological literature as the ‘mere-measurement effect’.     

An empirical evaluation of rotation-based ensemble classifiers for customer churn prediction

Several studies have demonstrated the superior performance of ensemble classification algorithms, whereby multiple member classifiers are combined into one aggregated and powerful classification model, over single models. In this paper, two rotation-based ensemble classifiers are proposed as modeling techniques for customer churn prediction. In Rotation Forests, feature extraction is applied to feature subsets in order to rotate the input data for training base classifiers, while RotBoost combines Rotation Forest with AdaBoost. In an experimental validation based on data sets from four real-life customer churn prediction projects, Rotation Forest and RotBoost are compared to a set of well-known benchmark classifiers. Moreover, variations of Rotation Forest and RotBoost are compared, implementing three alternative feature extraction algorithms: principal component analysis (PCA), independent component analysis (ICA) and sparse random projections (SRP). The performance of rotation-based ensemble classifier is found to depend upon: (i) the performance criterion used to measure classification performance, and (ii) the implemented feature extraction algorithm. In terms of accuracy, RotBoost outperforms Rotation Forest, but none of the considered variations offers a clear advantage over the benchmark algorithms. However, in terms of AUC and top-decile lift, results clearly demonstrate the competitive performance of Rotation Forests compared to the benchmark algorithms. Moreover, ICA-based Rotation Forests outperform all other considered classifiers and are therefore recommended as a well-suited alternative classification technique for the prediction of customer churn that allows for improved marketing decision making.     

基于信息融合的电信客户流失预测研究

针对数据挖掘方法在电信客户流失预测中的局限性,提出将信息融合与数据挖掘相结合,分别从数据层、特征层、决策层构建客户流失预测模型。确定客户流失预测指标;根据客户样本在特征空间分布的差异性对客户进行划分,得到不同特征的客户群;不同客户群采用不同算法构建客户流失预测模型,再通过人工蚁群算法求得模型融合权重,将各模型的预测结果加权得到预测最终结果。实验结果表明,基于信息融合的客户流失预测模型确实比传统模型更优。     

Modeling partial customer churn: On the value of first product-category purchase sequences

Retaining customers has been considered one of the most critical challenges among those included in Customer Relationship Management (CRM), particularly in the grocery retail sector. In this context, an accurate prediction whether or not a customer will leave the company, i.e. churn prediction, is crucial for companies to conduct effective retention campaigns. This paper proposes to include in partial churn detection models the succession of first products’ categories purchased as a proxy of the state of trust and demand maturity of a customer towards a company in grocery retailing. Motivated by the importance of the first impressions and risks experienced recently on the current state of the relationship, we model the first purchase succession in chronological order as well as in reverse order, respectively. Due to the variable relevance of the first customer–company interactions and of the most recent interactions, these two variables are modeled by considering a variable length of the sequence. In this study we use logistic regression as the classification technique. A real sample of approximately 75,000 new customers taken from the data warehouse of a European retail company is used to test the proposed models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and 1%, 5% and 10% percentiles lift are used to assess the performance of the partial-churn prediction models. The empirical results reveal that both proposed models outperform the standard RFM model.     

客户流失预测数据挖掘方法对比分析

本文分析了用于客户流失预测建模的主流技术及其优缺点。探讨了客户流失预测模型的研究方向．最后提出了云模型在客户流失预测中的应用。     

An effective hybrid learning system for telecommunication churn prediction

Customer churn has emerged as a critical issue for Customer Relationship Management and customer retention in the telecommunications industry, thus churn prediction is necessary and valuable to retain the customers and reduce the losses. Moreover, high predictive accuracy and good interpretability of the results are two key measures of a classification model. More studies have shown that single model-based classification methods may not be good enough to achieve a satisfactory result. To obtain more accurate predictive results, we present a novel hybrid model-based learning system, which integrates the supervised and unsupervised techniques for predicting customer behaviour. The system combines a modified k-means clustering algorithm and a classic rule inductive technique (FOIL).Three sets of experiments were carried out on telecom datasets. One set of the experiments is for verifying that the weighted k-means clustering can lead to a better data partitioning results; the second set of experiments is for evaluating the classification results, and comparing it to other well-known modelling techniques; the last set of experiment compares the proposed hybrid-model system with several other recently proposed hybrid classification approaches. We also performed a comparative study on a set of benchmarks obtained from the UCI repository. All the results show that the hybrid model-based learning system is very promising and outperform the existing models.     

Measuring the success of retention management models built on churn probability,retention probability,and expected yearly revenues

We claim that often marketers have not all the information to develop various marketing campaign models. For example, marketers may have sufficient information to build a model for predicting possible churners, while they may have no clues of which customers are most likely to accept a retention campaign. In this paper, we first show that the information useful for a successful churner prediction model alone is not sufficient to develop a successful retention marketing program. In such a case, we claim that only theory-based simulation approach is feasible. In particular, it is claimed that optimal retention management models should consider not only churn probability but also retention probability and expected revenues from target customers. To validate our claim, we develop and compare five retention management models based on churn probability, retention probability, expected revenues, and combination of these models along with different evaluation metrics. Our experimental results show that the retention management model with the highest accuracy in predicting possible churners is not necessarily optimal because it does not consider the probability of accepting retention promotions. In contrast, the retention management model based on both churn and retention probability is the best in terms of predicting customers who are most likely to positively respond to retention promotions. Ultimately, the model based on expected yearly revenue of customers accrues the highest revenues across most target points, making it the best model out of five churn management models.