Multi-Objective Surface Water Resource Management Considering Conflict Resolution and Utility Function Optimization

In the present research, a multi-objective model is developed for surface water resource management in the river basin area which is connected to the lake. This model considers different components of sustainable water resource management including economic, social and environmental aspects, and simultaneously tries to resolve conflicts between different stakeholders by means of non-symmetric Nash bargaining, which is linked to the multi-objective optimization method. This study proposes a new methodology to improve Nash Conflict Resolution through finding the optimum degree of the utility function. The proposed model is examined in the Zarrineh River basin in Iran. The results show that the amount of available resources or volume of reservoirs play a significant role in determining the optimal degree of the utility function and efficiency of the proposed method in such a way that the higher amount of resources or the larger reservoirs will result in the higher optimal degree of the utility function. In the proposed multi-objective model, two different amounts of surface water inflow are considered. The first assumed amount is the long-term average flow rate and the second one is equal to 80% of the first mode, which is reduced based on the estimated impacts of climate changes. This multi-objective allocation model could supply 100 and 97.5% of the environmental demand of Lake Urmia in the first and second situations, respectively.     

Evaluation of the Bankruptcy Approach for Water Resources Allocation Conflict Resolution at Basin Scale,Iran’s Lake Urmia Experience

Water conflicts appear when there are insufficient and less available water resources than water demands claimed by different agents. In this study, a new bankruptcy approach is investigated to resolve water conflicts in the Zarrinehroud River Basin, the largest and most important sub-basin of Lake Urmia’s Basin in the northwest of Iran. The new bankruptcy method is compared with the proportional rule (PRO) and another alternative based on the cessation of irrigated agriculture in the region proposed to supply and save environmentally in danger Lake Urmia. Four scenarios consisting of the current situation, optimistic, average and pessimistic scenarios regarding the future of water resources of the basin and agricultural developments were considered. According to the results, both bankruptcy rules helped Lake Urmia to receive more water, but neither could utterly overcome the water shortage of the Lake, so can be used as supplementary actions alongside other solutions. The cessation of irrigated agriculture throughout the basin overcame the average annual shortage of Lake Urmia in the first and second scenarios equal to 137 and 148 million cubic meters respectively. It showed disability to fully supply the lake in the third and fourth scenarios. These three methods must be combined with a social-economic policy like the purchase of decreased water allocations to farmers to be socially acceptable.     

Investigation Anthropogenic Impacts and Climate Factors on Drying up of Urmia Lake using Water Budget and Drought Analysis

The water level of Urmia Lake, the largest inland lake in Iran with maximum water surface area of about 6000 km², has been shrinking for the last two decades. Although a number of study have been performed to determine drought condition and coastline changes of Urmia Lake, there has not been a detailed study to distinguish anthropogenic effects from climate impacts on the drying of Urmia Lake. In this study, water budget of Urmia Lake and the intensity of drought in the basin were analyzed in the period from 1985 to 2010 and a new hypothesis is proposed to quantify anthropogenic and climate impacts in reducing the volume of Urmia Lake. The results of this study indicate that human impacts on the Lake and its basin are more important than climate factors. Though previous studies assumed that ground water output from Urmia Lake is negligible, the results of this study show the presence of significant groundwater seepage from Urmia Lake. Major changes in the variables that reduced the water level of Urmia Lake were observed since 1998. Anthropogenic impacts and climate factors have roughly 80% and 20% effects on the drying up of Urmia Lake, respectively. Hence, the first step to recover Urmia Lake could be the revision of management surface water, operation of dams and groundwater resources. The second step could be the review and classification of agricultural products grown in the region in terms of water consumption and teach local people the best practice methods for irrigation.     

Investigating the restoration of Lake Urmia using a numerical modelling approach

We assessed the effectiveness of multiple hydrologic restoration scenarios for Lake Urmia, as well as the variation of its salinity regime under no intervention, using a 2D shallow water model. Tested scenarios, proposed by Urmia Lake Restoration Program Committee, include: Preservation of current lake status (no intervention), complete closing of Shahid Kalantari causeway, dyke construction in the southern part of Lake Urmia, water transfer from Zarrinehrood River to Siminehrood River and reduction of agricultural water consumption by best agricultural practices. Results indicate that neither the closure of the causeway nor the construction of the southern dyke would significantly improve lake conditions when compared to preservation of current lake status. The water transfer alternative doesn’t seem to have any effect on the current lake conditions either. However, the reduction on water diversions by improving agricultural practices in the lake's basin leads to a partial restoration of the lake in terms of water level, surface area and volume. If current conditions persist, salinity in the northern part of Lake Urmia will reach supersaturation levels (340?g/L), generating further salt deposits.     

Using the Hybrid Simulated Annealing-M5 Tree Algorithms to Extract the If-Then Operation Rules in a Single Reservoir

Water Resources Management - The environmental water demand of the Mahabad River in the Urmia Lake basin in Iran was first estimated, using the flow duration curve shifting method (FDC Shifting) in...     

Using System Dynamics Method to Determine the Effect of Water Demand Priorities on Downstream Flow

During the past decades, the command and control approaches were used to access a safe water supply policy. However, traditional methods of water management rarely consider complex interactions and outcomes of water allocations which can show their effects in feedback loops. These methods also might deteriorate the situation in long terms as they have not taken into account the outcome of such plans on the future of a watershed as a whole system. Dynamic simulation methods provide flexible tools to accomplish a holistic analysis. This ability of system dynamics method is used in this research to show the feedback of water allocation. Bookan dam is one of the constructed dams in Urmia Lake basin upstream of which four dams are being constructed. Three well known archetypes are shown in this paper that help to recognize the effect of a reservoir water supply on downstream flow. The result of dam construction and water supply priorities on Bookan dam inflow is investigated too. The difference of inflow reduction to Bookan reservoir for the best and worst policies is about 18.4 MCM which is a significant amount. Also the best preference of water demand allocation for four dams was defined as agricultural demand, domestic demand, industrial demand and environmental demand.     

Application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for six watersheds of Lake Erie: Model parameterization and calibration

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physically-based watershed-scale model, holds promise as a means to predict tributary sediment and nutrient loads to the Laurentian Great Lakes. In the present study, model performance is compared across six watersheds draining into Lake Erie to determine the applicability of SWAT to watersheds of differing characteristics. After initial model parameterization, the Huron, Raisin, Maumee, Sandusky, Cuyahoga, and Grand SWAT models were calibrated (1998-2001) and confirmed, or validated (2002-2005), individually for stream water discharge, sediment loads, and nutrient loads (total P, soluble reactive P, total N, and nitrate) based on available datasets. SWAT effectively predicted hydrology and sediments across a range of watershed characteristics. SWAT estimation of nutrient loads was weaker although still satisfactory at least two-thirds of the time across all nutrient parameters and watersheds. SWAT model performance was most satisfactory in agricultural and forested watersheds, and was less so in urbanized settings. Model performance was influenced by the availability of observational data with high sampling frequency and long duration for calibration and confirmation evaluation. In some instances, it appeared that parameter adjustments that improved calibration of hydrology negatively affected subsequent sediment and nutrient calibration, suggesting trade-offs in calibrating for hydrologic vs. water quality model performance. Despite these considerations, SWAT accurately predicted average stream discharge, sediment loads, and nutrient loads for the Raisin, Maumee, Sandusky, and Grand watersheds such that future use of these SWAT models for various scenario testing is reasonable and warranted.     

Environmental management in Urmia Lake: thresholds approach

Urmia Lake is a vivid example of negligence in providing the environmental water requirement rooted in prolonged droughts and excessive upstream water withdrawal. The aim of this study is to propose a reclamation strategy for the lake by focusing on estimation of environmental requirement thresholds under various drought severity conditions. On the average, the lake will remain in a moderate hydrological drought condition if the business-as-usual scenario prevails. The shares of natural drought, water withdrawals and water resources development projects (i.e. dams) in recent lake inflow reduction are estimated at 45%, 40% and 15%, respectively; thus, the aggregated contribution of human-induced factors has a more significant impact on the current lake condition than that of natural drought, and a firm and consistent approach to reduce water consumption by the agricultural sector is required for lake reclamation.     

Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling

Urmia Lake in Iran is the second largest saline lake in the world. This ecosystem is the home for different species. Due to various socio-economical and ecological criteria, Urmia Lake has important role in the Northwestern part of the country but it has faced many problems in recent years. Because of droughts, overuse of surface water resources and dam constructions, water level has decreased in such a way that one quarter of the lake has changed to saline area in the last 10 years. The purpose of this research is to determine the main factors which reduce the lake’s water level. To this end, a simulation model, based on system dynamics method, is developed for the Urmia Lake basin to estimate the lake’s level. After successful verification of the model, results show that (among the proposed factors) changes in inflows due to the climate change and overuse of surface water resources is the main factor for 65% of the effect, constructing four dams is responsible for 25% of the problem, and less precipitation on lake has 10% effect on decreasing the lake’s level in the recent years. In the future, the model also can be used by managers as a decision support system to find the effects of building new dams or other infrastructures.     

Satellite remote sensing reveals impacts from dam‐associated hydrological changes on chlorophyll‐a in the world's largest desert lake

We present an approach that uses satellite products to derive models for predicting lake chlorophyll from environmental variables, and for investigating impacts of changing environmental flows. Lake Turkana, Kenya, is the world's largest desert lake, and environmental flows from the Omo River have been modified since 2015 by the Gibe III dam in Ethiopia. Using satellite remote sensing, we have evaluated the influence of these altered hydrological patterns on large‐scale lake phytoplankton concentrations for the first time. Prior to dam completion, strong seasonal cycles and large spatial gradients in chlorophyll have been observed, related to natural fluctuations in the Omo River's seasonal discharge. During this period, mean lake chlorophyll showed a strong relationship with both river inflows and lake levels. Empirical models were derived which considered multiple hydro‐climatic drivers, but the best model for predicting chlorophyll‐a was a simple model based on Omo River discharge. Application of this model to data for 2015–2016 estimated that during the filling of Gibe III annual mean Lake Turkana chlorophyll declined by 30%. Future water management scenarios based on Gibe III operations predict reduced seasonal chlorophyll‐a variability, while irrigation scenarios showed marked declines in chlorophyll‐a depending on the level of abstraction. These changes demonstrate how infrastructure developments such as dams can significantly alter lake primary production. Our remote sensing approach is easy to adapt to other lakes to understand how their phytoplankton dynamics may be affected by water management scenarios.     

Impacts of dam construction on streamflows during drought periods in the Upper Colorado River Basin,Texas

The purpose of this study was to assess the impacts of dam construction on streamflow during a severe drought in the upper Colorado River basin (TX), upstream of Lake Buchanan reservoir. The region has experienced severe, prolonged droughts over the past century. To ameliorate the effects of drought, and increase water storage for use during dry periods, several dams were constructed on the mainstem and tributaries of the Colorado River upstream of Lake Buchanan since the late‐1940s. Analysis of flow at the gauge above Lake Buchanan indicated streamflow was significantly reduced during the recent drought (2009–2014), compared with streamflows during the ‘drought of record’ (1950–1957). The construction of these upstream dams reduced streamflow by intercepting and storing water. It is concluded that building reservoirs in the western portion of the basin, largely in response to past droughts, although increasing water supplies for local uses, exacerbated the downstream effects of the hydrological drought, essentially making it the worst in recorded history.     

鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程对水质环境影响研究

鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程的建设,将改变湖内水动力特性,进而影响鄱阳湖的水环境质量。采用水深平均的二维水动力-水质模型对鄱阳湖现状水动力和水质进行模拟验证,水陆边界模拟采用动边界技术,摸拟"高水湖相,低水河相"的湖泊水域变化特征,水质特性为枯水期水质较差,丰水期水质较好,靠近入湖河口的湖区劣于湖心水质,北部出湖水质较好的现状。模型模拟预测在现状外部入流边界和现状污染负荷条件下,3种不同运行方式下,鄱阳湖湖流的时空形态相应发生的变化和相应水质变化。计算结果表明,枯水期大部分区域的水质浓度下降,但尾闾等部分区域有所升高,开闸泄水期前后,水质较现状水质下降,敞泄期的大部分时间,较现状水质基本相似,蓄水期水质变化不大。水动力特性综合水质浓度的改变,增加了局部水体的富营养化风险。研究结果可为枢纽的建设提供科学依据。     

简述乌伦古湖入湖水量及湖水位情势分析

由于乌伦古河河川径流具有连续枯水年且枯水时段长的特点,且乌伦古河在连续枯水年份出现断流是一种不可抗拒的自然因素,需要在流域综合规划指导下,具体研究吉力湖和布伦托海入湖水量及水位变化情势,尽可能恢复乌伦古河流域原有生态,保障洄游性鱼类所需要的流量要求,显著减少布伦托海湖水向吉力湖倒灌发生的时间和倒灌水量,使乌伦古湖和周边生态系统有所好转。     

Simple model for monitoring Balkhash Lake water levels and Ili River discharges: Application of remote sensing

Balkhash Lake and its environs are a very fragile ecosystem, whose dynamics exhibits large oscillations in magnitude caused by climatic factors and human impacts. The most recent oscillation was accompanied by construction of a water storage reservoir on the Ili River, the main inflow to the lake, leading to an additional decrease in the Balkhash Lake water level, and to dehydration of wetland landscapes in the Ili River delta. The main purpose of this study was to model the link between wetland biomass conditions in the Ili River delta and changes in the Balkhash Lake water level. A monthly, coarse‐resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset was used as an indicator of vegetation activity and biomass dynamics in the Ili River delta wetland for the period between 1982 and 2003. The NDVI displays significant intra‐annual and interannual variability strongly correlated with Ili River discharge and Balkhash Lake water level. This study also developed a simple model between NDVI and the two hydrological variables used in monitoring the hydrological regime of Balkhash Lake and its catchment basin.     

泾河长系列水沙变化规律与归因研究

近些年泾河径流量及来沙量大幅减少,在一定程度上影响到流域的水资源开发利用,为了厘清水沙减少程度及变化特征,探寻其变化背后的驱动因素,采用联合滑动t检验、距平累积曲线法和Copula等方法,从不同层面对泾河长系列水沙规律进行了研究。同时,建立分布式水文模型,分情景对泾河流域径流泥沙对气候和土地利用变化的响应进行了模拟。结果表明:气候变化对径流和泥沙减少的贡献率约为21. 20%和6. 08%;土地利用变化对径流泥沙减少的贡献率约为4. 04%和11. 08%;泾河流域径流泥沙变化除受气候变化影响外,还与土地利用(覆被)类型、面积比重等有关。研究结论表明:人为拦蓄和引水是河川径流减少的主要原因,而泥沙减少的主因除了退耕还林还草之外,通过淤地坝等水保措施直接拦沙也起到了重要作用。     

澜沧江-湄公河流域跨境水量-水能-生态互馈关系模拟

澜沧江-湄公河是亚洲的重要国际河流,其水量-水能-生态之间的相互作用关系是流域各国进行利益博弈的重要基础。本文选取上游澜沧江距离出境断面最近(对下游影响最大)的3座水电站年发电量代表水能要素,定义了生态改变系数代表河流生态水文要素,另外用灌溉引水集中的流域下游5国农业用水代表水量要素,通过GAMS建模优化发电调度和生态流量、通过WEAP模型模拟下游5国农业供水量,进而进行水量-水能-生态互馈关系的分析。结果表明,水能与生态之间存在显著的竞争关系,与下游国家总体的农业供水量呈协同关系。在不同的取水情景下,各国的水量-水能-生态互馈关系呈现一定差异,主要表现在农业供水量受水库发电量的影响程度不同,且中国水库适当提高发电量有利于下游国家的农业灌溉,但对生态流量有不利影响,需对流域调控作进一步研究。     

Toledo Bend reservoir and geomorphic response in the lower Sabine River

Downstream geomorphic responses of stream channels to dams are complex, variable, and difficult to predict, apparently because the effects of local geological, hydrological, and operational details confound and complicate efforts to apply models and generalizations to individual streams. This sort of complex geomorphic response characterizes the Sabine River, along the Texas and Louisiana border, downstream of the Toledo Bend dam and reservoir. Toledo Bend controls the flow of water and essentially prevents the flux of sediment from three‐quarters of the drainage basin to the lower Sabine River. Although the channel is scoured immediately downstream of the dam, further downstream there is little evidence of major changes in sediment transport or deposition, sand supply, or channel morphology attributable to the impoundment. Channels are actively shifting, banks are eroding, and sandbars are migrating, but not in any discernibly different way than before the dam was constructed. The Sabine River continues to transport sand downstream, and alluvial floodplains continue to accrete. The relatively small geomorphic response can be attributed to several factors. While dam releases are unnaturally flashy and abrupt on a day‐to‐day basis, the long‐term pattern of releases combined with some downstream smoothing creates a flow regime in the lower basin which mimics the pre‐dam regime, at least at monthly and annual time scales. Sediment production within the lower Sabine basin is sufficient to satisfy the river's sediment transport capacity and maintain pre‐dam alluvial sedimentation regimes. Toledo Bend reservoir has a capacity: annual inflow ratio of 1.2 and impounds 74% of the Sabine drainage basin, yet there has been minimal geomorphic response in the lower river, which may seem counterintuitive. However, the complex linked geomorphic processes of discharge, sediment transport and loads, tributary inputs, and channel erosion include interactions which might increase as well as decrease sediment loads. Furthermore, if a stream is transport‐limited before impoundment, the reduced sediment supply after damming may have limited impact. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Framework for surface water quality management on a river basin scale: Case study of Lake Iseo, Northern Italy

River (DESERT) and lake (EVOLA) water quality models are used to simulate the influences of alternative water quality management scenarios on the quality of receiving surface waters in the Lake Iseo basin, Northern Italy. The scenarios are representative of the European Union Directive on Urban Waste Water Treatment (91/271/EEC) and of the regional authority’s objective to reduce the total phosphorus loads from point sources entering Lake Iseo and to restore the lake as close as it is practically possible to its former natural qualitative state. Application of DESERT shows that the regional ‘Water Clean Up Plan’ can achieve similar reductions in total phosphorus concentrations in the basin’s main river system, Oglio River, to the 91/271/EEC directive, but at notably lower economic costs. Application of EVOLA to Lake Iseo shows that it is not practical to achieve the regional authority’s objective of a specific total phosphorus concentration in the lake by 2016. Instead, the results show that a more realistic, but higher, total phosphorus concentration can be achieved by 2016. The results of both modelling exercises indicate the usefulness of DESERT and EVOLA for comparing and assessing water quality management scenarios and for revising the regional authority’s final objectives with regards to total phosphorus concentration in Lake Iseo, as well as the regional ‘Water Clean Up Plan’ for restoring and safeguarding the quality of the basin’s surface waters.     

近60年气候与土地利用变化对金沙江径流的影响

气候变化与土地利用变化会对流域降水径流过程产生影响,如何定量区分气候变化和土地利用变化对径流过程的影响,一直是国际水文水资源领域研究的热点和前沿问题。为了定量研究金沙江流域土地利用与气候变化的径流响应,构建了金沙江流域SWAT模型,采用情景模拟的方法,对土地利用变化与气候变化对径流的影响展开了研究。研究结果表明:(1)过去57 a金沙江流域实测降水量和气温的上升趋势显著,而径流量的变化趋势不明显;(2)相较于金沙江流域气温的显著升高,各种土地利用变化很小;(3)由于过去30 a间土地利用变化很小,因此其对径流量的影响微小;(4)气候变化是影响金沙江流域径流的主要因素,然而,取用水、水库建设等人类活动对径流的影响也较为显著。     

基于SWAT模型的浏阳河流域径流对土地利用和气候变化的协同响应

气候和土地利用同时作用于流域径流,影响着流域水资源的量和质。以浏阳河流域为例,基于SWAT模型和情景分析方法定量评估未来流域内土地利用和气候变化对径流的作用。首先采用元胞自动机-马尔科夫(CA-Markov)模型模拟浏阳河流域2020和2050年的土地利用空间格局,其次在World Clim数据库中获得未来流域内气候变化数据,最后采用SWAT模型定量评估未来不同情境下土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响。研究结果表明:未来浏阳河流域林地比例下降、城市建设用地和耕地比例增加;气候呈暖干趋势; 2020和2050年,土地利用变化时,浏阳河榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少2. 42和0. 96 m~3/s;气候变化时,榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少3. 02和1. 13 m~3;土地利用和气候变化综合影响下,榔梨站模拟径流将分别减少8. 54和4. 27 m~3/s;说明浏阳河流域径流的变化对气候响应更加敏感,土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响呈非线性协同作用。