A Hybrid Ensemble Deep Learning Approach for Early Prediction of Battery Remaining Useful Life

Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries is critical for their large-scale deployment as energy storage devices in electric vehicles and stationary storage. A fundamental understanding of the factors affecting RUL is crucial for accelerating battery technology development. However, it is very challenging to predict RUL accurately because of complex degradation mechanisms occurring within the batteries, as well as dynamic operating conditions in practical applications. Moreover, due to insignificant capacity degradation in early stages, early prediction of battery life with early cycle data can be more difficult. In this paper, we propose a hybrid deep learning model for early prediction of battery RUL. The proposed method can effectively combine handcrafted features with domain knowledge and latent features learned by deep networks to boost the performance of RUL early prediction. We also design a non-linear correlation-based method to select effective domain knowledge-based features. Moreover, a novel snapshot ensemble learning strategy is proposed to further enhance model generalization ability without increasing any additional training cost. Our experimental results show that the proposed method not only outperforms other approaches in the primary test set having a similar distribution as the training set, but also generalizes well to the secondary test set having a clearly different distribution with the training set. The PyTorch implementation of our proposed approach is available athttps://github.com/batteryrul/battery_rul_early_prediction.      

基于卷积神经网络与双向长短时融合的锂离子电池剩余使用寿命预测

针对锂离子电池剩余使用寿命（remaining useful life,RUL）传统预测方法的精确度与稳定性较低等问题,融合卷积神经网络（convolutional neural network,CNN）和双向长短期记忆（bidirectional long short-term memory,BiLSTM）神经网络的...     

Combining empirical mode decomposition and deep recurrent neural networks for predictive maintenance of lithium-ion battery

Predictive maintenance of lithium-ion batteries has been one of the popular research subjects in recent years. Lithium-ion batteries can be used as the energy supply for industrial equipment, such as automated guided vehicles and battery electric vehicles. Predictive maintenance plays an important role in the application of smart manufacturing. This mechanism can provide different levels of pre-diagnosis for machines or components. Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is crucial for the implementation of predictive maintenance strategies. RUL refers to the estimated useful life remaining before the machine cannot operate after a certain period of operation. This study develops a hybrid data science model based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD), grey relational analysis (GRA), and deep recurrent neural networks (RNN) for the RUL prediction of lithium-ion batteries. The EMD and GRA methods are first adopted to extract the characteristics of time series data. Then, various deep RNNs, including vanilla RNN, gated recurrent unit, long short-term memory network (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM, are established to forecast state of health (SOH) and the RUL of lithium-ion batteries. Bayesian optimization is also used to find the best hyperparameters of deep RNNs. Experimental results with the lithium-ion batteries data of NASA Ames Prognostics Data Repository show that the proposed hybrid data science model can accurately predict the SOH and RUL of lithium-ion batteries. The LSTM network has the optimal results. The proposed hybrid data science model with multiple artificial intelligence-based technologies also demonstrates critical digital-technology enablers for digital transformation of smart manufacturing and transportation.     

Lithium-ion battery remaining useful life estimation based on fusion nonlinear degradation AR model and RPF algorithm

The lithium-ion battery cycle life prediction with particle filter (PF) depends on the physical or empirical model. However, in observation equation based on model, the adaptability and accuracy for individual battery under different operating conditions are not fully considered. Therefore, a novel fusion prognostic framework is proposed, in which the data-driven time series prediction model is adopted as observation equation, and combined to PF algorithm for lithium-ion battery cycle life prediction. Firstly, the nonlinear degradation feature of the lithium-ion battery capacity degradation is analyzed, and then, the nonlinear accelerated degradation factor is extracted to improve prediction ability of linear AR model. So an optimized nonlinear degradation autoregressive (ND–AR) time series model for remaining useful life (RUL) estimation of lithium-ion batteries is introduced. Then, the ND–AR model is used to realize multi-step prediction of the battery capacity degradation states. Finally, to improve the uncertainty representation ability of the standard PF algorithm, the regularized particle filter is applied to design a fusion RUL estimation framework of lithium-ion battery. Experimental results with the lithium-ion battery test data from NASA and CALCE (The Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering, the University of Maryland) show that the proposed fusion prognostic approach can effectively predict the battery RUL with more accurate forecasting result and uncertainty representation of probability density distribution (pdf).     

锂离子电池剩余寿命预测方法研究综述

电池故障预测和健康管理(Prediction and Health Management, PHM)评价的主要方法是确定电池的健康状态和剩余使用寿命(Remaining Useful Life, RUL),以此保证锂离子电池安全可靠地工作和实现寿命优化。锂电池RUL预测不仅是PHM中的热点问题和挑战问题,其预测方法的准确性也会直接影响电池管理系统(Battery Management System, BMS)的整体性能。介绍了单体电芯测评标准,对影响锂电池循环寿命的主要因素进行详细分析。简述电池日历寿命和循环寿命。概括和总结了近几年锂离子电池剩余寿命预测方法,比较不同方法的优缺点。提出了当前实际应用中预测锂电池RUL仍存在的关键问题并进行探讨。     

Estimation of Battery State of Health Using Back Propagation Neural Network

100 pieces of 26650-type Lithium iron phosphate（LiFePO4） batteries cycled with a fixed charge and discharge rate are tested, and the influence of the battery internal resistance and the instantaneous voltage drop at the start of discharge on the state of health（SOH） is discussed. A back propagation（BP） neural network model using additional momentum is built up to estimate the state of health of Li-ion batteries. The additional 10 pieces are used to verify the feasibility of the proposed method. The results show that the neural network prediction model have a higher accuracy and can be embedded into battery management system（BMS） to estimate SOH of LiFePO4 Li-ion batteries.     

A sample entropy based prognostics method for lithium-ion batteries using relevance vector machine

Over the increasing number of charging and discharging cycling processes of lithium-ion batteries, the aging and even failure of lithium-ion batteries may occur. If anomalies are not detected in time, lithium-ion batteries could cause major safety accidents. In this paper, a prognostics method integrating the sample entropies and relevance vector machine (RVM) is proposed to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries. First, RUL prediction using multiple inputs, including the voltage sample entropy and the current sample entropy, are compared with prediction methods based on a single entropy input. The multiple entropy input method indicates better capability of describing the battery degradation process. In addition, the wavelet denoising method is used to pre-process the inputs to remove sudden and unusual changes in the battery capacity degradation data. A prediction model using the denoised entropy inputs is constructed through linearly weighting the entropy inputs in the RVM model. The weight for each input is assigned according to the individual contribution to the prediction accuracy. Experimental data from lithium-ion battery testing are applied to three prediction models with different entropy inputs. The results indicate that the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy than those in existing models only using a single sample entropy. The proposed method has potentials for the RUL estimation of industrial machinery in manufacturing.     

基于改进神经网络算法的医疗锂电池PHM系统设计

针对医疗电子设备锂电池不确定性发生故障耽误病人救治的问题,提出了一套医疗电子设备锂电池故障预测与健康管理系统(Prognostics and Health Management-PHM);搭建了一套医疗电子设备锂电池数据测试与退化状态模拟的实验平台;为了反映医疗电子设备锂电池健康状态,将锂电池四个健康因子作为医疗电子设备锂电池退化状态的特征进行提取,并通过非线性自回归(Nonlinear Autogressive with Exogenous Inputs-NARX)神经网络,对四个健康因子的数据进行训练,训练后用于容量估计,得出等间隔放电时间序列能够较好地表征锂电池健康状态;为了提高基本粒子滤波算法(Particle Filter-PF)的精度从而更精确地预测锂电池剩余寿命(Remaing Useful Life-RUL),通过人工免疫粒子滤波算法(Artificial Immune Particle FilterAIPF)与经验模型对锂电池进行剩余寿命预测,并将PF预测的结果与AIPF预测的结果进行对比,发现AIPF预测更加准确,说明AIPF有效抑制了PF重采样过程中粒子退化问题,验证了医疗电子设备锂电池故障预测与健康管理系统的可行性与可实施性。     

工业锂电池退化过程研究与剩余使用寿命预测

随着锂离子电池在航空航天、军工建设、工业制造、电动汽车以及储能设备等领域的广泛研究与应用,其剩余使用寿命预测具有重要意义.本文通过对锂离子电池退化原理与退化过程数据分析,剔除锂离子电池松弛效应,建立含随机效应的Wiener退化过程模型.在获知其退化阈值的情况下,推导出锂离子电池的寿命分布,并在此基础上,对单个锂离子电池剩余使用寿命进行预测.最后在NASA的PCoE数据库提供的电池数据集进行实例验证,结果表明相对于参考文献所述传统的设备贮存-工作联合退化模型,Wiener过程退化模型具有更高的预测精度.     

A data-model-fusion prognostic framework for dynamic system state forecasting

A novel data-model-fusion prognostic framework is developed in this paper to improve the accuracy of system state long-horizon forecasting. This framework strategically integrates the strengths of the data-driven prognostic method and the model-based particle filtering approach in system state prediction while alleviating their limitations. In the proposed methodology, particle filtering is applied for system state estimation in parallel with parameter identification of the prediction model (with unknown parameters) based on Bayesian learning. Simultaneously, a data-driven predictor is employed to learn the system degradation pattern from history data so as to predict system evolution (or future measurements). An innovative feature of the proposed fusion prognostic framework is that the predicted measurements (with uncertainties) from the data-driven predictor will be properly managed and utilized by the particle filtering to further update the prediction model parameters, thereby enabling markedly better prognosis as well as improved forecasting transparency. As an application example, the developed fusion prognostic framework is employed to predict the remaining useful life of lithium ion batteries through electrochemical impedance spectroscopy tests. The investigation results demonstrate that the proposed fusion prognostic framework is an effective forecasting tool that can integrate the strengths of both the data-driven method and the particle filtering approach to achieve more accurate state forecasting.     

A hybrid framework combining data-driven and model-based methods for system remaining useful life prediction

Remaining useful life prediction is one of the key requirements in prognostics and health management. While a system or component exhibits degradation during its life cycle, there are various methods to predict its future performance and assess the time frame until it does no longer perform its desired functionality. The proposed data-driven and model-based hybrid/fusion prognostics framework interfaces a classical Bayesian model-based prognostics approach, namely particle filter, with two data-driven methods in purpose of improving the prediction accuracy. The first data-driven method establishes the measurement model (inferring the measurements from the internal system state) to account for situations where the internal system state is not accessible through direct measurements. The second data-driven method extrapolates the measurements beyond the range of actually available measurements to feed them back to the model-based method which further updates the particles and their weights during the long-term prediction phase. By leveraging the strengths of the data-driven and model-based methods, the proposed fusion prognostics framework can bridge the gap between data-driven prognostics and model-based prognostics when both abundant historical data and knowledge of the physical degradation process are available. The proposed framework was successfully applied on lithium-ion battery remaining useful life prediction and achieved a significantly better accuracy compared to the classical particle filter approach.     

基于HI-DD-AdaBoost.RT的锂离子动力电池SOH预测

锂离子电池是一个复杂的电化学动态系统,实时准确的健康状态(SOH)估计对电动汽车动力锂电池的维护至关重要,传统建模方法难以实现SOH的在线估算.基于此,从实时评估电池的SOH出发,在增量学习的基础上,选取与电池健康状态相关的指标建立SOH预测模型.考虑到增量学习中的耗时性问题,提出融合滑动窗口技术的HI-DD算法,该算法可以检测概念漂移是否发生,从而指导和确定模型更新位置;设计出HI-DD与AdaBoost.RT结合的模型更新策略,进而提高模型的在线学习性能和预测精度,最后使用CALCE提供的电池老化实验数据对所提出的方法进行验证.结果表明,基于增量学习的HI-DD-AdaBoost.RT预测算法具有较强的在线更新能力和较高的预测精度,能够满足SOH在线预测的实际需求.     

基于新容量退化模型的锂电池RUL预测研究

为准确预测锂离子电池剩余使用寿命(remaining useful life,RUL),建立能有效描述锂离子电池非线性退化特征的模型非常必要。采用新颖的回归方程构建容量退化模型,与双指数退化模型的对比表明:该模型具有更强的描述能力。依赖于此模型,提出了基于新容量退化模型和粒子滤波(particle filtering,PF)算法的锂离子电池剩余寿命预测方法,并与非线性退化自回归模型(nonlinear degradation auto regression,ND-AR)和正则化粒子滤波算法的混合方法(regularized particle filter,RPF)的预测结果做比较。结果表明:该方法对不同锂离子电池具有较好的适应性,能给出比ND-AR和RPF的混合方法更高精度的预测结果,且收敛性较好。     

基于扩展卡尔曼滤波的锂离子电池寿命预测方法

锂离子电池寿命预测是掌握电源性能衰退趋势的重要手段,已成为电子系统健康管理领域的研究热点。针对锂离子电池的寿命预测问题,基于NASA艾姆斯中心的锂离子电池地面试验采集的数据,将扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)算法应用于锂离子电池寿命预测过程中,并针对预测过程中存在的问题,采用最优Loess平滑原理进行改进,从而提高了预测的稳定性和精确性。实验结果表明,提出的预测方法能够有效地用于锂离子电池寿命预测中,在工程应用方面具有较高的实用价值。     

基于深度时序特征迁移的轴承剩余寿命预测方法

不同工况下轴承退化数据分布不一致导致深度学习等方法对剩余寿命预测效果有限,而已有迁移学习预测方法未能充分挖掘不同工况退化序列的内在趋势性,为此,提出一种基于深度时序特征迁移的轴承剩余寿命预测方法.首先,提出一种深度时序特征融合的健康指标构建模型,利用时间卷积网络挖掘退化趋势的内在时序特征,得到源域多轴承的健康指标;然后,提出一种最小化序列相似度的领域自适应算法,利用源域健康指标作为退化趋势元信息,选取目标域与源域之间的公共敏感特征;最后,采用支持向量机构建预测模型.在IEEE PHM Challenge 2012 轴承全寿命数据集上进行实验,结果表明,所提出方法构建的健康指标可更有效地反映退化趋势,同时明显提升剩余寿命预测的准确度.     

A novel deep convolutional neural network-bootstrap integrated method for RUL prediction of rolling bearing

In this study, a novel deep convolutional neural network-bootstrap-based integrated prognostic approach for the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of rolling bearing is developed. The proposed architecture includes two main parts: 1) a deep convolutional neural network–multilayer perceptron (i.e., DCNN–MLP) dual network is utilized to simultaneously extract informative representations hidden in both time series-based and image-based features and to predict the RUL of bearings, and 2) the proposed dual network is embedded into the bootstrap-based implementation framework to quantify the RUL prediction interval. Unlike other deep-learning-based prognostic approaches, the proposed DCNN-bootstrap integrated method has two innovative features: 1) both 1D time series-based and 2D image-based features of bearings, which can multi-dimensionally characterize the degradation of bearings, are comprehensively leveraged by the proposed dual network, and 2) the RUL prediction interval can be effectively quantified without relying on the bearing’s physical or statistical prior information based on bootstrap implementation paradigm. The proposed approach is experimentally validated with two case studies on rolling element bearings, and comparisons with other state-of-the-art techniques are also presented. Subsequently, our code will be open sourced.     

基于变分模态分解和高斯过程回归的锂离子电池剩余寿命预测方法

锂离子电池在实际工作中常处于间歇工作状态,存在容量再生现象,其性能退化呈现非单调性和随机性,无法采用传统的单一模型准确进行预测。针对上述问题,研究一种基于变分模态分解（Variational Mode Decomposition, VMD）和高斯过程回归（Gaussian Process Regression, GPR）的锂离子电池剩余寿命预测方法。首先,利用VMD将锂离子电池容量退化数据分解为一系列相对平稳的分量,并获取电池退化趋势分量及容量再生分量。然后针对不同分量的具体特性,构建合适的GPR预测模型以提高单个分量预测精度。最后,将分量预测结果叠加获取容量预测结果,进而实现电池剩余寿命预测。基于NASA研究中心锂电池容量退化数据进行实验分析,结果表明本文方法相比于直接采用GPR模型,降低了容量预测误差,并有效提高了剩余寿命预测精度。     

矿用单轨吊磷酸铁锂电池组复合式分层均衡电路

在矿用单轨吊磷酸铁锂电池组连续的充放电循环中,各单体电池不一致性会导致电池组整体性能衰减、使用寿命缩短,传统电池组均衡方式均衡时间长、控制策略复杂。针对上述问题,在Buck-Boost均衡电路和飞渡电容均衡电路的基础上,提出了一种复合式分层均衡电路。底层和中间层Buck-Boost均衡电路按照二叉树结构构建,顶层飞渡电容均衡电路实现3个相邻电池组之间任意2个电池组的能量传递,使电池不仅能够在层内进行能量传递以实现相邻电池间均衡,还可在层间进行能量传递以实现非相邻电池间均衡。仿真结果表明,复合式分层均衡电路大大缩短了均衡时间,显著提高了电池电压一致性。     

A high-gain adaptive observer for detecting Li-ion battery terminal voltage collapse

We use a high-gain adaptive observer and a trend filtering algorithm to detect early stages that lead to terminal voltage collapses in Li-ion batteries. This approach allows accurate detection without having sophisticated battery models. Theoretical analysis proves that the physical Li-ion battery becomes unstable when the estimated states of the observer enter instability. The trend filtering algorithm is able to detect such instability under large perturbations from the discharge current. Extensive simulation and experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithms and its robustness under realistic perturbations.