Analyzing fault in pedestrian–motor vehicle crashes in North Carolina

Crashes between pedestrians and motor vehicles are an important traffic safety concern. This paper explores the assignment of fault in such crashes, where observed factors are associated with pedestrian at fault, driver at fault, or both at fault. The analysis is based on police reported crash data for 1997 through 2000 in North Carolina, U.S.A.The results show that pedestrians are found at fault in 59% of the crashes, drivers in 32%, and both are found at fault in 9%. The results indicate drivers need to take greater notice of pedestrians when drivers are turning, merging, and backing up as these are some of the prime factors associated with the driver being found at fault in a crash.Pedestrians must apply greater caution when crossing streets, waiting to cross, and when walking along roads, as these are correlated with pedestrians being found at fault. The results suggest a need for campaigns focused on positively affecting pedestrian street-crossing behavior in combination with added jaywalking enforcement. The results also indicate that campaigns to increase the use of pedestrian visibility improvements at night can have a significant positive impact on traffic safety. Intoxication is a concern and the results show that it is not only driver intoxication that is affecting safety, but also pedestrian intoxication.The findings show in combination with other research in the field, that results from traffic safety studies are not necessarily transferable between distant geographic locations, and that location-specific safety research needs to take place. It is also important to further study the specific effects of the design of the pedestrian environment on safety, e.g. crosswalk spacing, signal timings, etc., which together may affect pedestrian safety and pedestrian behavior.     

Motor vehicle drivers’ injuries in train–motor vehicle crashes

The objectives of this research were to: (1) identify a more suitable model for modeling injury severity of motor vehicle drivers involved in train–motor vehicle crashes at highway–rail grade crossings from among three commonly used injury severity models and (2) to investigate factors associated with injury severity levels of motor vehicle drivers involved in train–motor vehicle crashes at such crossings. The 2009–2013 highway–rail grade crossing crash data and the national highway–rail crossing inventory data were combined to produce the analysis dataset. Four-year (2009–2012) data were used for model estimation while 2013 data were used for model validation. The three injury severity levels—fatal, injury and no injury—were based on the reported intensity of motor-vehicle drivers’ injuries at highway–rail grade crossings.     

Prevalence of motor vehicle crashes involving drowsy drivers,United States, 1999–2008

The proportion of motor vehicle crashes that involve a drowsy driver likely is greater than existing crash databases reflect, due to the possibility that some drivers whose pre-crash state of attention was unknown may have been drowsy. This study estimated the proportion of crashes that involved a drowsy driver in a representative sample of 47,597 crashes in the United States from 1999 through 2008 that involved a passenger vehicle that was towed from the scene. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data on driver drowsiness. In the original (non-imputed) data, 3.9% of all crashes, 7.7% of non-fatal crashes that resulted in hospital admission, and 3.6% of fatal crashes involved a driver coded as drowsy; however, the drowsiness status of 45% of drivers was unknown. In the imputed data, an estimated 7.0% of all crashes (95% confidence interval: 4.6%, 9.3%), 13.1% of non-fatal crashes that resulted in hospital admission (95% confidence interval: 8.8%, 17.3%), and 16.5% of fatal crashes (95% confidence interval: 12.5%, 20.6%) involved a drowsy driver. Results suggest that the prevalence of fatal crashes that involve a drowsy driver is over 350% greater than has been reported previously.     

Spatial panel analyses of alcohol outlets and motor vehicle crashes in California: 1999–2008

Although past research has linked alcohol outlet density to higher rates of drinking and many related social problems, there is conflicting evidence of density's association with traffic crashes. An abundance of local alcohol outlets simultaneously encourages drinking and reduces driving distances required to obtain alcohol, leading to an indeterminate expected impact on alcohol-involved crash risk. This study separately investigates the effects of outlet density on (1) the risk of injury crashes relative to population and (2) the likelihood that any given crash is alcohol-involved, as indicated by police reports and single-vehicle nighttime status of crashes. Alcohol outlet density effects are estimated using Bayesian misalignment Poisson analyses of all California ZIP codes over the years 1999–2008. These misalignment models allow panel analysis of ZIP-code data despite frequent redefinition of postal-code boundaries, while also controlling for overdispersion and the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Because models control for overall retail density, estimated alcohol-outlet associations represent the extra effect of retail establishments selling alcohol. The results indicate a number of statistically well-supported associations between retail density and crash behavior, but the implied effects on crash risks are relatively small. Alcohol-serving restaurants have a greater impact on overall crash risks than on the likelihood that those crashes involve alcohol, whereas bars primarily affect the odds that crashes are alcohol-involved. Off-premise outlet density is negatively associated with risks of both crashes and alcohol involvement, while the presence of a tribal casino in a ZIP code is linked to higher odds of police-reported drinking involvement. Alcohol outlets in a given area are found to influence crash risks both locally and in adjacent ZIP codes, and significant spatial autocorrelation also suggests important relationships across geographical units. These results suggest that each type of alcohol outlet can have differing impacts on risks of crashing as well as the alcohol involvement of those crashes.     

Analyzing fault and severity in pedestrian–motor vehicle accidents in China

The number of pedestrian–motor vehicle accidents and pedestrian deaths in China surged in recent years. However, a large scale empirical research on pedestrian traffic crashes in China is lacking. In this study, we identify significant risk factors associated with fault and severity in pedestrian–motor vehicle accidents. Risk factors in several different dimensions, including pedestrian, driver, vehicle, road and environmental factors, are considered. We analyze 6967 pedestrian traffic accident reports for the period 2006–2010 in Guangdong Province, China. These data, obtained from the Guangdong Provincial Security Department, are extracted from the Traffic Management Sector-Specific Incident Case Data Report. Pedestrian traffic crashes have a unique inevitability and particular high risk, due to pedestrians’ fragility, slow movement and lack of lighting equipment. The empirical analysis of the present study has the following policy implications. First, traffic crashes in which pedestrians are at fault are more likely to cause serious injuries or death, suggesting that relevant agencies should pay attention to measures that prevent pedestrians from violating traffic rules. Second, both the attention to elderly pedestrians, male and experienced drivers, the penalty to drunk driving, speeding, driving without a driver's license and other violation behaviors should be strengthened. Third, vehicle safety inspections and safety training sessions for truck drivers should be reinforced. Fourth, improving the road conditions and road lighting at night are important measures in reducing the probability of accident casualties. Fifth, specific road safety campaigns in rural areas, and education programs especially for young children and teens should be developed and promoted. Moreover, we reveal a country-specific factor, hukou, which has significant effect on the severity in pedestrian accidents due to the discrepancy in the level of social insurance/security, suggesting that equal social security level among urban and rural people should be set up. In addition, establishing a comprehensive liability distribution system for non-urban areas and roadways will be conducive to both pedestrians’ and drivers’ voluntary compliance with traffic rules.     

Use of age–period–cohort models to estimate effects of vehicle age,year of crash and year of vehicle manufacture on driver injury and fatality rates in single vehicle crashes in New South Wales, 2003–2010

A novel application of age–period–cohort methods are used to explain changes in vehicle based crash rates in New South Wales, Australia over the period 2003–2010. Models are developed using vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort to explain changes in the rate of single vehicle driver fatalities and injuries in vehicles less than 13 years of age. Large declines in risk are associated with vehicle cohorts built after about 1996. The decline in risk appears to have accelerated to 12 percent per vehicle cohort year for cohorts since 2004. Within each cohort, the risk of crashing appears to be a minimum at two years of age and increases as the vehicle ages beyond this. Period effects (i.e., other road safety measures) between 2003 and 2010 appear to have contributed to declines of up to about two percent per annum to the driver-fatality single vehicle crash rate, and possibly only negligible improvements to the driver-injury single vehicle crash rate. Vehicle improvements appear to have been responsible for a decline in per-vehicle crash risk of at least three percent per calendar year for both severity levels over the same period. Given the decline in risk associated with more recent vehicle cohorts and the dynamics of fleet turnover, continued declines in per-vehicle crash risk over coming years are almost certain.     

Reconstruction model of vehicle impact speed in pedestrian–vehicle accident

Reconstruction of pedestrian–vehicle accident is a worldwide problem. Numerous previous studies have been carried out on accidents with vehicular skid marks or definite pedestrian throw distances. However, little could be done if marks or throw distances cannot be obtained in accident reconstruction. This paper first describes the physical model of dynamic process of pedestrian head impact on windshield glazing. Some simplifications are made to obtain a better and more practical model, including discussing the support boundary conditions. Firstly, the paper modeled the relations between pedestrian impact speed and deflection of windshield glazing based on the impact dynamics and thin plate theory. Later, the relations of vehicle impact speed and deflection are discussed. Therefore, a model of vehicle impact speed versus deflection of windshield glazing is developed. The model is then verified by ten real-world accident cases to demonstrate its accuracy and reliability. This model provides investigators a new method to reconstruct pedestrian–vehicle accidents.     

On-road bicycle facilities and bicycle crashes in Iowa, 2007–2010

Purpose

An average of 611 deaths and over 47,000 bicyclists are injured in traffic-related crashes in the United States each year. Efforts to increase bicycle safety are needed to reduce and prevent injuries and fatalities, especially as trends indicate that ridership is increasing rapidly. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of bicycle-specific roadway facilities (e.g., signage and bicycle lanes) in reducing bicycle crashes.

Methods

We conducted a case site-control site study of 147 bicycle crash-sites identified from the Iowa Department of Transportation crash database from 2007 to 2010 and 147 matched non-crash sites. Control sites were randomly selected from intersections matched to case sites on neighborhood (census block group) and road classification (arterial, feeder, collector, etc.). We examined crash risk by any on-road bicycle facility present and by facility type (pavement markings--bicycle lanes and shared lane arrows, bicycle-specific signage, and the combination of markings and signage), controlling for bicycle volume, motor vehicle volume, street width, sidewalks, and traffic controls.

Results

A total of 11.6% of case sites and 15.0% of controls had an on-road bicycle facility. Case intersections had higher bicycle volume (3.52 vs. 3.34 per 30 min) and motor vehicle volume (248.77 vs. 205.76 per 30 min) than controls. Our results are suggestive that the presence of an on-road bicycle facility decreases crash risk by as much as 60% with a bicycle lane or shared lane arrow (OR = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.09–1.82) and 38% with bicycle-specific signage (OR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.15–2.58).

Conclusions

Investments in bicycle-specific pavement markings and signage have been shown to be beneficial to traffic flow, and our results suggest that they may also reduce the number of bicycle-motor vehicle crashes and subsequent injuries and fatalities. As a relatively low-cost traffic feature, community considerations for further implementation of these facilities are justified.     

Self-regulation of motor vehicle advertising: is it working in Australia?

There is growing concern that certain content within motor vehicle advertising may have a negative influence on driving attitudes and behaviours of viewers, particularly young people, and hence a negative impact on road safety. In response, many developed countries have adopted a self-regulatory approach to motor vehicle advertising. However, it appears that many motor vehicle advertisements in Australia and elsewhere are not compliant with self-regulatory codes. Using standard commercial advertising methods, we exposed three motor vehicle ads that had been the subject of complaints to the Australian Advertising Standards Board (ASB) to, N = 463, 14–55 year olds to assess the extent to which their perceptions of the content of the ads communicated themes that were contrary to the Australian self-regulatory code. All three ads were found to communicate messages contrary to the code (such as the vehicle's speed and acceleration capabilities). However, the ASB had upheld complaints about only one of the ads. Where motor vehicle advertising regulatory frameworks exist to guide motor vehicle advertisers as to what is and what is not acceptable in their advertising, greater efforts are needed to ensure compliance with these codes. One way may be to make it mandatory for advertisers to report consumer pre-testing of their advertising to ensure that undesirable messages are not being communicated to viewers.     

Multilevel models for evaluating the risk of pedestrian–motor vehicle collisions at intersections and mid-blocks

Walking is a popular form of physical activity associated with clear health benefits. Promoting safe walking for pedestrians requires evaluating the risk of pedestrian–motor vehicle collisions at specific roadway locations in order to identify where road improvements and other interventions may be needed. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the risk of pedestrian collisions at intersections and mid-blocks in Seattle, WA. The study used 2007–2013 pedestrian–motor vehicle collision data from police reports and detailed characteristics of the microenvironment and macroenvironment at intersection and mid-block locations. The primary outcome was the number of pedestrian–motor vehicle collisions over time at each location (incident rate ratio [IRR] and 95% confidence interval [95% CI]). Multilevel mixed effects Poisson models accounted for correlation within and between locations and census blocks over time. Analysis accounted for pedestrian and vehicle activity (e.g., residential density and road classification). In the final multivariable model, intersections with 4 segments or 5 or more segments had higher pedestrian collision rates compared to mid-blocks. Non-residential roads had significantly higher rates than residential roads, with principal arterials having the highest collision rate. The pedestrian collision rate was higher by 9% per 10 feet of street width. Locations with traffic signals had twice the collision rate of locations without a signal and those with marked crosswalks also had a higher rate. Locations with a marked crosswalk also had higher risk of collision. Locations with a one-way road or those with signs encouraging motorists to cede the right-of-way to pedestrians had fewer pedestrian collisions. Collision rates were higher in locations that encourage greater pedestrian activity (more bus use, more fast food restaurants, higher employment, residential, and population densities). Locations with higher intersection density had a lower rate of collisions as did those in areas with higher residential property values. The novel spatiotemporal approach used that integrates road/crossing characteristics with surrounding neighborhood characteristics should help city agencies better identify high-risk locations for further study and analysis. Improving roads and making them safer for pedestrians achieves the public health goals of reducing pedestrian collisions and promoting physical activity.     

Overweight children: Are they at increased risk for severe injury in motor vehicle collisions?

Background

Obesity is an epidemic in the United States. The relationship between traumatic injury and obesity in children is not well-studied. We hypothesized that overweight children suffer more severe injuries, different distributions of injuries and improper use of restraints in motor vehicle collisions.

Methods

We conducted a secondary analysis of the CIREN database of motor vehicle collisions of subjects 2-17 years old. Overweight was defined as a BMI percentile for age >85%. Significant injury was an Injury Severity Score (ISS) >15 or an Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score greater than one. Further analysis looked at injuries classified as head, trunk, or extremities and appropriateness of restraints. Odds ratios compared the overweight to lean groups.

Results

335 subjects met inclusion criteria with 35.5% of cases being overweight. For significant injury, overweight cases had an odds ratio of 1.2 [95% CI: 0.8-1.9]. Analysis by AIS for overall significant injury and to specific body regions also did not show any significant associations. Overweight versus lean subjects had an odds ratio of 1.3 [95% CI: 0.8-2.1] for improper use of restraints.

Conclusions

We found no significant relationship between pediatric injury severity, distribution of injuries, or restraint use and being overweight. Limitations of this study were the small sample size in this database and the large number of unrestrained subjects.     

Case–control analysis in highway safety: Accounting for sites with multiple crashes

There is an increased interest in the use of epidemiological methods in highway safety analysis. The case–control and cohort methods are commonly used in the epidemiological field to identify risk factors and quantify the risk or odds of disease given certain characteristics and factors related to an individual. This same concept can be applied to highway safety where the entity of interest is a roadway segment or intersection (rather than a person) and the risk factors of interest are the operational and geometric characteristics of a given roadway. One criticism of the use of these methods in highway safety is that they have not accounted for the difference between sites with single and multiple crashes. In the medical field, a disease either occurs or it does not; multiple occurrences are generally not an issue. In the highway safety field, it is necessary to evaluate the safety of a given site while accounting for multiple crashes. Otherwise, the analysis may underestimate the safety effects of a given factor.     

US commercial air tour crashes, 2000–2011: Burden,fatal risk factors,and FIA Score validation

Introduction

This study provides new public health data concerning the US commercial air tour industry. Risk factors for fatality in air tour crashes were analyzed to determine the value of the FIA Score in predicting fatal outcomes.

Methods

Using the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and National Transportation Safety Board data, the incidence of commercial air tour crashes from 2000 through 2010 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes occurring from 2000 through 2011 were analyzed using regression methods. The FIA Score, Li and Baker's fatality risk index, was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

Results

The industry-wide commercial air tour crash rate was 2.7 per 100,000 flight hours. The incidence rates of Part 91 and 135 commercial air tour crashes were 3.4 and 2.3 per 100,000 flight hours, respectively (relative risk [RR] 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–2.1, P = 0.015). Of the 152 air tour crashes that occurred from 2000 through 2011, 30 (20%) involved at least one fatality and, on average, 3.5 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with three major risk factors: fire (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 5.1, 95% CI 1.5–16.7, P = 0.008), instrument meteorological conditions (AOR 5.4, 95% CI 1.1–26.4, P = 0.038), and off-airport location (AOR 7.2, 95% CI 1.6–33.2, P = 0.011). The area under the FIA Score's ROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.88).

Discussion

Commercial air tour crash rates were high relative to similar commercial aviation operations. Disparities between Part 91 and 135 air tour crash rates reflect regulatory disparities that require FAA action. The FIA Score appeared to be a valid measurement of fatal risk in air tour crashes. The FIA should prioritize interventions that address the three major risk factors identified by this study.     

The effectiveness of helmets in bicycle collisions with motor vehicles: A case–control study

There has been an ongoing debate in Australia and internationally regarding the effectiveness of bicycle helmets in preventing head injury. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of bicycle helmets in preventing head injury amongst cyclists in crashes involving motor vehicles, and to assess the impact of ‘risky cycling behaviour’ among helmeted and unhelmeted cyclists. This analysis involved a retrospective, case–control study using linked police-reported road crash, hospital admission and mortality data in New South Wales (NSW), Australia during 2001–2009.     

Comparison of a linear and a non-linear model for using sensory–motor,cognitive, personality,and demographic data to predict driving ability in healthy older adults

This study compared the ability of binary logistic regression (BLR) and non-linear causal resource analysis (NCRA) to utilize a range of cognitive, sensory–motor, personality and demographic measures to predict driving ability in a sample of cognitively healthy older drivers.Participants were sixty drivers aged 70 and above (mean = 76.7 years, 50% men) with no diagnosed neurological disorder. Test data was used to build classification models for a Pass or Fail score on an on-road driving assessment. The generalizability of the models was estimated using leave-one-out cross-validation.Sixteen participants (27%) received an on-road Fail score. Area under the ROC curve values were .76 for BLR and .88 for NCRA (no significant difference, z = 1.488, p = .137). The ROC curve was used to select three different cut-points for each model and to compare classification. At the cut-point corresponding to the maximum average of sensitivity and specificity, the BLR model had a sensitivity of 68.8% and specificity of 75.0% while NCRA had a sensitivity of 75.0% and specificity of 95.5%. However, leave-one-out cross-validation reduced sensitivity in both models and particularly reduced specificity for NCRA.Neither model is accurate enough to be relied on solely for determination of driving ability. The lowered accuracy of the models following leave-one-out cross-validation highlights the importance of investigating models beyond classification alone in order to determine a model's ability to generalize to new cases.     

Microstructure and precipitation in Al–Li–Cu–Mg–(Mn,Zr) alloys

Abstract

Hot rolled Al–6Li–1Cu–1Mg–0·2Mn (at.-%) (Al–1·6Li–2·2Cu–0·9Mg–0·4Mn, wt-%) and Al–6Li–1Cu–1Mg–0·03Zr (at.-%) (Al–1·6Li–2·3Cu–1Mg–0·1Zr, wt-%) alloys developed for age forming were studied by tensile testing, electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), three-dimensional atom probe (3DAP), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). For both alloys, DSC analysis shows that ageing at 150°C leads initially to formation of zones/clusters, which are later gradually replaced by S phase. On ageing at 190°C, S phase formation is completed within 12 h. The precipitates identified by 3DAP and TEM can be classified into (a) Li rich clusters containing Cu and Mg, (b) a plate shaped metastable precipitate (similar to GPB2 zones/S″), (c) S phase and (d) δ′ spherical particles rich in Li. The Zr containing alloy also contains β′ (Al₃Zr) precipitates and composite β′/δ′ particles. The β′ precipitates reduce recrystallisation and grain growth leading to fine grains and subgrains.